On failure

A look at efforts to get to the bottom of last year’s federal election pollster failure and the Electoral Commission of Queensland’s recent election night meltdown.

The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published a discussion paper for its review into last year’s federal election polling failure. It notes that existing standards set by the Australian Press Council are too lax and readily ignored in any case, and suggests a familiar retinue of suggested new standards including full disclosure of weightings used and detail of how preference flows were determined. While the inquiry’s committee and advisory group are impressively credentialled, it should be noted that most actual pollsters aren’t members of the AMSRO. The recent announcement that YouGov, Essential Research and uComms would establish an Australian Polling Council occurred independently of its process, and is likely to be the more consequential development.

Meanwhile, a parliamentary inquiry has been putting the blowtorch to the Electoral Commission of Queensland over the failure of its results reporting facilities at the local government elections and state by-elections on March 28. Excuses include disruption arising from COVID-19, which extended to “coding resources” being locked down in Wuhan, and the complication of combining elections for two state parliament seats with the statewide council elections. It also appears an American firm contracted to provide a new election management system, Konnech, has found itself bamboozled by what the electoral commissioner described as “the complexity of Queensland electoral law”, which “far exceeded that of any other Konnech customer” (a conclusion it would no doubt have reached in any Australian jurisdiction).

The new results website went belly-up on testing a week out from election day, prompting the ECQ to hurriedly concoct the unfamiliar-looking results website that appeared on the night. Polling booth officials were required to submit results through a shareable spreadsheet application, which threw up formating inconsistencies upon transfer to the ECQ system. The ECQ’s technical staff spent the night dealing with the results website issues, leaving corresponding issues with a horrifyingly complex XML results feed to one side. Consequently, the ABC’s results displays remained stuck on a tiny share of the count all night, and updates remained infrequent beyond election night. It is to be hoped that this will all be sorted out before a state election that will be held on October 31.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “On failure”

Comments Page 3 of 28
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  1. mundo

    E-M voters have been told the government ‘saved’ 60bn.
    The story is finished now.
    ————-
    This process offers incredible opportunities for future (and current) governments to announce grandiose schemes with a cost double the real cost then after a few months announce they have been able to cut the budget in half thus achieving significant Budget “Savings” while still delivering pok, pork and more pork to its clientele.

    Indeed this might have been the cunning plan all along!

  2. So how many records and Josh Boy set now ? Heading for bigly-est deficit, biggest loss of jobs in a month…………….

  3. poroti @ #100 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 7:52 am

    Terminator
    From Bowen……

    Chris Bowen

    @Bowenchris
    Let’s be clear. The $60 billion costing was made before a single business filled in a form. For @ScottMorrisonMP and @JoshFrydenberg to blame Australia’s businesses for this huge bungle is typical of the dishonesty of the Morrison Govt. They’ve always got someone else to blame.

    3,742
    6:06 AM – May 23, 2020
    Twitter Ads info and privacy
    1,618 people are talking about this

    What I want to know is why did nobody in the administration twig that there were so many businesses employing exactly 1500 or 3000 or whatever multiple of 1500 people?

  4. Rakali @ #46 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 7:48 am

    Pegasus

    Australia has a terrible record of extinctions and it looks set to get worse.
    —————
    It’s because the human population is growing too slowly. We need to increase the settler intake because that will “boost” the economy and only then will we have the resources to fence off a few paddocks for those nuisance marsupials.

    This is the Lib/Lab/Grn orthodoxy is it not?

    I think we have seen Australia as being boundless and as result have been lazy and extravagant in how we have used it.

    Redressing that view is where our immediate focus should be.

  5. Fess

    All the best with the weather out your way!
    Looks ominous

    Meanwhile the jobkeeper budget was announced in March, and the forms filled by businesses was done in April. So it is a bullshit excuse.

  6. Wong’s lack of ambition and the inability of the Federal ALP to coerce her to higher office is plain.

    Her career will be properly characterised as a excelling in an under utilised way

  7. What I want to know is why did nobody in the administration twig that there were so many businesses employing exactly 1500 or 3000 or whatever multiple of 1500 people?
    _______
    It would be very simple for the ATO to systematically check Jobseeker claims from companies for reasonableness given that to have a valid claim the companies need to have been in operation for at least one year and therefore would have submitted PAYE data. No matter how rough the evaluation it would have shown up the 1500x errors very quickly.

  8. Shellbell @ #110 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    Wong’s lack of ambition and the inability of the Federal ALP to coerce her to higher office is plain.

    Her career will be properly characterised as a excelling in an under utilised way

    You can be a complete and utter toffee-nosed elitist bastard sometimes, shellbell. This is one of those times.

    Penny Wong would have been our Foreign Minister right now if greedy bastards and gullible numbnuts hadn’t fallen for the Morrison Coalition election spin, misleading as it was on an epic scale.

    Would have been being Foreign Minister, Labor not ‘coercing Penny Wong to higher office’ and evidence of Penny Wong’s ‘lack of ambition’!?!

    What a baseless slur that was, Shellbell. You should be ashamed of yourself. The wealthy don’t do shame though. That’s how they stay top of the pile. With a few pro bono vanity projects on the side to salve their conscience though, eh?

  9. Shellbell

    Foreign Minister is pretty high profile and Wong’s an excellent choice. Compare with Julie Bishop who was a show off clothes horse.

  10. Spray @ #63 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 8:03 am

    Kirky @ #87 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 9:41 am

    Cud, personally I don’t give too hoots about NSW and even Vic for that matter.

    Cheers mate. That’s the spirit.

    Kirky’s well entrenched in the “I’ve had enough and I want things to be as they were before” phase.

    As such he’s willing to risk what we’ve achieved so far by being stuck in his own personal interest rather than the larger Society interest.

  11. Annabel: I can’t accept that.
    Sheridan: wtte be quiet, Annabel.

    Annabel spoke at length then it was Sheridan’s turn during which Annabel attempted to interrupt and talk over Sheridan. He rightly objected.

  12. Penny Wong is clearly too smart for the editors of Rexology, who, let’s face it, are the lowest common denominator in propaganda.

  13. Anyone note the chyron under Insiders today? Germany allows religious observance in churches to go ahead and one week later 40 people from one church have contracted COVID-19.

  14. Daniel Andrews:

    “The Premier is announcing big changes to coronavirus restrictions this morning.

    From midnight next Sunday (May 31), Victorians will be allowed to have a total of 20 people in their home. For a family of five, this means 15 visitors.

    Outdoor gatherings can also increase to 20.

    Overnight stays can resume at private residences. And importantly, for our tourism industry, so can overnight stays in accommodation.

    We’ll bring you more as the Premier’s press conference continues.”

  15. Rex Douglas @ #95 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    Insiders really did Labor a favour in the opening video clip. The editors put over Albanese’s words in a big way.

    Labor, due to its lack of political talent in its ranks, needs assistance like this much more often.

    Today’s performance from Wong was intellectually strong, but I think won’t engage the large voter base who aren’t intellects.

    And of course the larger voter base will all be watching Insiders … NOT.

  16. Thanks for that link about Christopher Tan, Kronomex. Very interesting. I wonder how he will explain his Stat Dec and Police Check statements to the Liberal Party then?

    Mr Tan was also under pressure for failing to provide the party with a police clearance under tough new vetting procedures, but it is understood he submitted the required paperwork late on Thursday.

    No mention of the Driving record then?

  17. Just a touch supercilious.

    Yes. She also has a tendency to sound ‘flat’ and lets a tone of exasperation show too readily when pushed.

  18. It’s Time @ #130 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 10:21 am

    Rex Douglas @ #95 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    Insiders really did Labor a favour in the opening video clip. The editors put over Albanese’s words in a big way.

    Labor, due to its lack of political talent in its ranks, needs assistance like this much more often.

    Today’s performance from Wong was intellectually strong, but I think won’t engage the large voter base who aren’t intellects.

    And of course the larger voter base will all be watching Insiders … NOT.

    Sarcasm is better without the …not
    We get sarcasm.
    Please, Mundo has asked before, don’t put ‘not’ at the end.
    It’s irritating.

  19. I believe Penny Wong started out as a research officer for the AMWU…metalworkers Union. From the Left. She’s the coolest thinker in the Parliament and is universally respected.

    Shell….the idea that she might have been moved from the Senate to the House and become leader will have been considered, for sure. Many times. But it’s a lot easier to muse on that than accomplish it. For a start she’s from the Left. Albo is the first leader Labor has had from the Left in living memory. And then there would be the question of finding a seat in SA.

    All things considered she’s done a great job as Labor’s leader in the Senate. A great job.

  20. It’s Time @ #130 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 10:21 am

    Rex Douglas @ #95 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    Insiders really did Labor a favour in the opening video clip. The editors put over Albanese’s words in a big way.

    Labor, due to its lack of political talent in its ranks, needs assistance like this much more often.

    Today’s performance from Wong was intellectually strong, but I think won’t engage the large voter base who aren’t intellects.

    And of course the larger voter base will all be watching Insiders … NOT.

    Insiders has a large audience according to ratings figures.

    Labor doesn’t have a very good stable of communicators unfortunately for them.

  21. Yay progress!

    Blake Johnson
    @BlakeJohnson
    ·
    10m
    Monday 1st June:
    ✅ indoor gatherings max 20ppl
    ✅ outdoor gatherings max 20ppl
    ✅ weddings 20 + couple
    ✅ funerals 50 + staff
    ✅ overnight stays
    ✅ camping / tourist accom but no shared facilities
    ✅ pools max 20ppl
    ✅ galleries, museums, amusement parks , zoos max 20ppl
    Show this thread
    7NEWS Melbourne Retweeted
    Matt Thompson Flag of Australia
    @MattThompson
    ·
    14m
    Breaking: From 11:59pm on May 31 you can go stay at holiday homes and accommodation.
    @7NewsMelbourne
    7NEWS Melbourne Retweeted
    Blake Johnson
    @BlakeJohnson
    ·
    16m
    Tuesday 26th May:
    playgrounds
    outdoor gyms
    skateparks
    max 10 people

  22. BK says:
    Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 10:04 am
    What I want to know is why did nobody in the administration twig that there were so many businesses employing exactly 1500 or 3000 or whatever multiple of 1500 people?_______
    It would be very simple for the ATO to systematically check Jobseeker claims from companies for reasonableness given that to have a valid claim the companies need to have been in operation for at least one year and therefore would have submitted PAYE data. No matter how rough the evaluation it would have shown up the 1500x errors very quickly.

    Correct BK – as a former project manager and public servant who assisted in costing budget initiatives in the ATO, DSS and Centrelink there should have been a quality assurance process to check the initial forms returned.

  23. Turning on the telly just after 9.30am today … Well, I lasted all of 30 seconds before I had to turn off Insiders … Sheridan bloviating on China … T’was not good for my blood pressure.

    Trying to conflate ScoMo’s brain fart unilateral call for an independent of China and WHO international enquiry with the piss weak European Union inquiry – to be run by the WHO with China’s involvement. FFS.

    Then of course we had the sabre rattling of how ‘unacceptable’ it was for China to bully us. That of course justified our putting our head on the chopping block to run interference for Trump’s failures (which is what the timing of ScoMo’s call was all about).

    Perhaps the most sick making thing about this whole episode was, having volunteered to take one in the arse for team Trump, Trump ‘repaid’ our obsequiousness by threatening $2 billion dollars of defence contracts that Australian manufacturers have with the JSF program.

    How good is that?

    All of the fallout from this shite could be largely avoided if Australia developed a consistent and overarching policy framework to manage the US/China relationships. Which I coined ‘friendly engaged skepticism’ on the previous thread.

  24. More restrictions easing in Victoria…

    “Museums, drive-ins, zoos to reopen from June 1
    In more welcome news from the Premier, entertainment and cultural venues like galleries, museums, drive-in cinemas and historic sites will be able to reopen their doors on June 1.

    Zoos and outdoor amusement parks will also be able to welcome visitors. Physical distancing and a limit of up to 20 patrons per space will apply, while indoor venues will be required to keep customer contact details.

    Limits on our most significant ceremonies will be lifted, with up to 20 people allowed at weddings – plus the celebrant and couple.

    Up to 50 people will be allowed at a funeral, in addition to those required to conduct the ceremony. Up to 20 will be allowed at other religious ceremonies, in addition to those required to perform the service.

    Libraries, youth centres and other community facilities will be able to open with no more than 20 people in a single area, plus those needed to operate the space. That means men’s sheds, and arts and crafts classes can resume.”

  25. mundo @ #138 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 10:25 am

    It’s Time @ #130 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 10:21 am

    Rex Douglas @ #95 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    Insiders really did Labor a favour in the opening video clip. The editors put over Albanese’s words in a big way.

    Labor, due to its lack of political talent in its ranks, needs assistance like this much more often.

    Today’s performance from Wong was intellectually strong, but I think won’t engage the large voter base who aren’t intellects.

    And of course the larger voter base will all be watching Insiders … NOT.

    Sarcasm is better without the …not
    We get sarcasm.
    Please, Mundo has asked before, don’t put ‘not’ at the end.
    It’s irritating.

    Mondo is certainly the master of irritation.

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