The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).
The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.
The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.
The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.
Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.
As someone who was in the Allied Medical front line at the time HIV appeared, can I just say that, of course, upon reflection in the rear view mirror there were cases that were classified as HIV but that weren’t called that initially.
It didn’t prove a thing to have identified them thus, after the event of naming it HIV.
Ryan StruykVerified account @ryanstruyk
Reported US coronavirus cases:
Mar. 4: 158 cases
Apr. 4: 311,544 cases
Now : 1,212,835 cases
Reported US coronavirus deaths
9 weeks ago: 6 deaths
1 week ago: 56,255 deaths
Right now: 69,921 deaths
Cud Chewer @ #195 Tuesday, May 5th, 2020 – 1:00 pm
…Dr Charlmers said.
sprocket_ @ #187 Tuesday, May 5th, 2020 – 12:54 pm
There’ll highlights?
mundo
Those were the highlights.
Danama Papers @ #152 Tuesday, May 5th, 2020 – 12:11 pm
From the profits you made flying them before that happened. Also tax credits for depreciation.
Not that you wouldn’t face exactly the same issue on financed planes that become worthless before all the debt has been retired. Nobody will extend a second round of finance to you if you default on the first. Of if they do, the strings attached will be ridiculous. Like Trump/Russia ridiculous.
That’s pretty much what happens to old jetliners, yes.
If that were true nobody would be leasing planes out in the first place. 🙂
Those were the highlights. (snap poroti)
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 at 12:48 pm
boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 at 8:04 am
“Monbiot
‘We have stimulated consumption too much over the past century, which is why we face environmental disaster.’
That, and increasing the number of consumers from 2 billion to 7.5 billion.
Why can’t progressives be honest about population pressure?”
Yeah, that and shit political and legal systems in developing nations. ‘
FMD.
Classic right wing cop out.
Australia has close to the world’s highest rate of extinctions. Just below that Australia has an extremely high rate of within-species loss of range, of habitat fragmentation, of loss of range of DNA. Australia has massive levels of desertification, ecosystem loss, soil quality loss and salinization. Our largest river system rarely reaches the sea any more. The extinction lag built into the system and driven by huge numbers of uncontrolled ferals, tens of millions of domestic cats, environmental weeds, and the deliberate poisoning of ecosystem by sundry crooks is massive.
Waiting for someone to ask Josh if is it better to lease or buy planes in the current climate..
Josh is outlining his plan to use Dr Who’s phone box time machine to return everything to pre C19 days
In the same way as HIV was at first characterised as being attributable in some way to a moral deficiency in the male homosexual community and I-V drug-users – a clear example of prejudiced conflation – so others have attributed the outbreak of this pandemic to a similar moral deficiency in the people of China. This just boils down to fear, blame, conceit and self-gratification at the expense of the sick.
Oh dear such outrage and shaking of fists in my general direction.
BW made a very short one-liner post (or 2) re Anne Aly and Troy Bramston and what he reckons they said about KK’s comments.
I apologise for providing links to the articles so others can actually make their own judgements and put in context what AA and TB counter-arguments were in response.
The ad-hominem attacks are much appreciated and indicate high levels of cognitive dissonance and complete intolerance to other opinions.
March 10
Out of the ashes, green shoots appearing in Mr Comstance’s political ambition tree are confirmed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-05/andrew-constance-to-run-in-eden-monaro-by-election/12214998
Now Josh doing the half truth stunt on comparative international company tax rates.
This is very shallow
Josh has his talking points from pre C19..
‘We have brought the budget back into balance…’
lizziesays:
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 at 12:44 pm
“Bucephalus
I found that horrifying, yet it seems typical of Trump’s America now.”
I’d put a $1,000 on them not being Trump voters. I doubt that they identify with Trump or his politics in any way.
Cud,
The borders will come down, the issue is just when.
I’m tipping the 1st July, which is 7 weeks from now. We have just finished 6 weeks of lockdown.
The fear I read in most of these posts on this blog are unfounded based on what we have achieved to date. If you were in USA or UK/Europe I would agree with you but guess what we ain’t there we are here.
“ The Australian’ has Troy Bramston trying to shut down the population debate.
Apparently KK should not be talking about population in Australia because she is a migrant.
uh huh. If you have a thought about population you can only express that thought if you go back where you came from?”
Troy Bramston is a mate of mine. However, we have been having harsh words over this on Facebook this morning.
What disappoints me with Troy on this – not so much that he is obviously shilling for Rupert – that’s a given. No, its that when engaging with him its much like trying to debate the Bernie Bros and Greentards. He gets rabid, unctuous and downright condescending.
It is partially galling in that he knows that I actually believe in a Big Australia policy. We can probably feed between 50 and 70 million from our own agricultural pursuits. There is no reason not to have a population politics that matches. However, the places where we pursue agricultural activities and the actual produce of those activities needs a radical overall.
It also is bleedingly obvious that we have been kicking the necessary infrastructure development that is needed just for our present population settings into the long grass for decades. That must be attended to urgently.
Similarly, most of Bramston’s outrage is focused on temporary work migration. He conflates that with Australia’s bi-partisan non discriminatory permanent migration program.
Whilst temporary migration programs may provide a step to permanent residence, this is not automatic. Nor should it be.
It is a proven fact that temporary migration programs have been abused in the past. Whether it be to undercut unionised sectors and create any environment of virtually undetectable wage theft, or to paper over the fact that there has been a massive public underspend on vocational training in relevant economics sectors. Moreover, about 800,000 Australians have been permanently benched and dislocated from the labour market – partially because employers are more prepared to look at plundering overseas labour forces instead of investing in the reskilling and reemplouyment of long term underployed.
What has now happened to the economy transcends all of the old debates and it is high time to do a complete reset.
Bramston and his ilk can shill all they like. There is nothing racist or xenophobic in taking the opportunity to develop and implement a domestic national employment strategy to lift everybody who is unemployed and wants a job into a job that is either economically productive or socially useful. Of course the droogs in the rupeverse would rather paper over the skills shortage by continuing to cherry pick the available labor from overseas rather than look after the mill;ions who I have been benched at home.
The bottom line for me is this:
1. Implement a full employment policy;
2. Build the infrastructure that can sustain a much large population; and
3. Overhaul our agricultural practices to make a large population economically and environmentally sustainable.
THEN we can run as large an immigration program as you want. 1 million a year? Why not.
HOWEVER, you can count me out of supporting a large migration program (especially temporary migration) if not enough is done too address points 1 to 3.
In Bramston land – that apparently makes me a shameful racist. This is disappointing to say the least.
Pegasus @ #155 Tuesday, May 5th, 2020 – 11:17 am
Poor Peg,
So misunderstood!!! 😆 😆
Cud Chewersays:
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 at 12:49 pm
“Amusing watching Buce reflexively defending scum…”
You really are a cockwomble.
No defending was done – just pointing out some clear errors in the attempt to politicise the incident.
Andrew_Earlwood
That rings a bell. Well, you tried. 🙂
Businesses are going to reopen before any former employees from overseas return.
Until unemployment falls to under 5% we can get by without any visa workers. The only exception should be farm labour. Aussie should not be forced to work in this sector with poor conditions and low wages.
With many industries not returning to pre COVID19 staff levels, there will be plenty of capable workers available for retraining.
Economists have said those unemployed in 2 years time may never return to the workforce again.
L/NP Govt interested in attacking Unions and workers will make poor choices yet again.
Whoever said you don’t build wealth thru debt obviously doesn’t understand financing. You do build wealth thru use of good debt (not consumption debt).
If you don’t borrow at all, you will remain poor.
Bucephalus
It’s not necessary to admit to voting for Trump to be a representative of his kind of gun-toting, anti-masks, angry America. Or even to be bright enough to know the name of the President.
But it’s okay for temporary visa holders and migrants to work under exploitative conditions.
On the inquiry into the Dutton Princess docking in Sydney, I was amazed by this quote in the Guardian by the Counsel assisting this morning:
“He also said that someone from the Australian Border Force called the duty harbour master to discuss the possibility of “turning the ship around and sending it back to sea”.
However, shortly after, and for an unclear reason, the “same ABF person called the harbour master and said it could proceed”.
Really “an ABF person”? Surely the harbour master would have required them to identify themselves if they were (1) claiming to be from the ABF and (2) saying the ship should be docked. Who passed on the order? We need to know, so we can find out who ordered them to tell the harbour master.
Why are large swathes of rural and remote Australia being forced to have their businesses destroyed when there have been no cases of COVID19 either ever for for many weeks?
Terrible policy response from city centric governments. Another reason to get rid of the states and local governments and move to Regional Governments.
Where is the ABC on this? Silent, because they have slashed all their regional services and centralised in Greens central.
Andrew_Earlwood
Rupert’s $s are very persuasive silver tongued devils.
“The borders will come down, the issue is just when”
Kirky. It will happen when NSW eliminates the virus. Not before. The other states are not going to jeopardise things.
“Why are large swathes of rural and remote Australia being”
So you support health checks and compulsory testing as a requirement to leave Sydney? Good.
a r @ #146 Tuesday, May 5th, 2020 – 12:04 pm
No airline in the world owns anything like all of its planes. When they wish to add new planes, they arrange for an aircraft lease company to purchase them. This way, under any situation except the literally unprecented situation that the world finds itself in now, they can match income against periodic, continuing outgo for the lease payments. At the end of the lease period they would acquire the planes for the ‘residual’ value, and commonly refinance them via a mortgage agreement. Similar arrangements are followed by most businesses in capital intensive industries. Gearing, meaning having an appropriate level of debt to shareholders funds, is a key means of producing good returns for shareholders, since lease and interest payments are tax deductible, whereas dividends are not. The whole basis of commerce is the assembly of capital in limited liability companies, and gearing these to generate an adequate return for shareholders.
I have built comprehensive, bottom up, budgeting and forecasting financial models for many very large organisations in mining, energy, airline, food processing, hotels and tourism, healthcare, insurance (etc etc), plus local councils, and state and federal government departments. These models can predict the cash flow, profit and balance sheet outcomes for any input scenario, but I have never observed any company to enter a data set anything like the current situation in the affected industries, before now.
Any business related to tourism or entertainment is quite plainly smashed, and in almost all cases they will not have sufficient cash flow to meet their fixed outgoings (rent, insurance, lease payments, rates, base energy, fixed labour and so on). Their only hope is to approach their banker(s) or the share market for support. In a large number of cases, that will be no hope at all.
Peg
Can you imagine this Govt taking the side of workers if they stand against the farming bosses.
Can’t join a Union so Govt assisted organised owners v disorganised rabble.
Boerwar (prev thread):
I haven’t checked your figures, but presumably they’re roughly accurate.
What your figures show, and what we know from broad experience across industries, is that that technology has more leverage than social change (and also acts faster) – in your example 35% vs 28%. This is not only without really trying, but in fact in the face of extremely well funded political opposition from neo-luddites and other anti-technology people.
This, in fact, is the solution to a problem entirely of our own making. Some example scenarios for a soluation:
– if Australians want to continue to live in large houses, then we will need technology to do this much more efficiently (because the ability to continue to increase the tax preferencing that drives it is close to exhausted)
– alternatively, if Australians want to switch to something else (for example, automation will within ten years make serviced apartments radically cheaper, supporting an alternative with a much higher standard of living provided by real businesses, which will naturally seek to cut input costs, most of which correspond directly to footprint)
These are neither exhaustive nor mutually exclusive. The problem will have to be faced, and whilst it’s possible we will fail to solve it, it’s more than likely that we will (after trying every possible alternative, as someone once said).
I’ve just skimmed through Josh’s answers to Q, and nowhere can I find any real discussion of solutions to rising unemployment, or businesses going tits-up. It’s just a fact in Josh’s life.
lizzie says:
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 at 1:29 pm
“It’s not necessary to admit to voting for Trump to be a representative of his kind of gun-toting, anti-masks, angry America. Or even to be bright enough to know the name of the President.”
Lizzie,
I have to disagree. There are some current behaviours and attitudes in the US that are directly related to Trump and his administration.
Then there are other things like the shooting that was referred to that probably would have happened even with Obama as President – so pinning that type of behaviour on Trump is bollocks. In the last weekend there were 46 people shot in Chicago with 4 fatalities – is that Trump’s fault? If they happened under Obama (and there were many weekends similar) was it his fault?
“The fear I read in most of these posts on this blog are unfounded”
Kirky some simple questions.
1. Is the virus going to be eliminated in WA/SA/NT?
2. Is the virus going to be eliminated in TAS?
3. Is the virus going to be eliminated in QLD?
4. If several dozen carriers of the virus remain in Sydney, will they naturally cease to be a threat because of remaining social isolation practices? Or will we ease restrictions too soon?
5. If we ease restrictions too soon, will Sydney be able to contain the multiple outbreaks that result?
6. What do you then think is the probability of the virus becoming unctrollable?
I’d like you to give some serious, thought out answers on this, because if you aren’t certain of your answers, don’t blame me for being worried about the fact that this government is winging it.
BoJo goes all Scrott.
…………………………………………………………………………………
Download tracing app and get UK back to work
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/download-tracing-app-and-get-uk-back-to-work-l2t0ghkl9
“Mr Constance will not resign from NSW Parliament and will return to be the state’s Transport Minister if he loses the by-election.”
this is from the abc website …… don’t think this is legal…….
think if he nominates for e m he must resign his state seat
Sean Hannity breaks with Trump and condemns armed lockdown protests: ‘Show of force is dangerous’
President Donald Trump has defended the protesters in Michigan who demonstrated against the state stay-at-home order with semiautomatic rifles.
But one very unlikely person is disagreeing with him: Fox News’ Sean Hannity, one of the network’s most partisan Trump supporters and a commentator with a long history of coronavirus trutherism.
Everyone has the right to protest, protect themselves, and try to get the country open. This, with the militia look here and these long guns? Uhhh, no.”
“Show of force is dangerous,” Hannity continued. “That puts our police at risk. And by the way, your message will never be heard, whoever you people are. No one should be attempting to intimidate officials with a show of force. And God forbid something happens, they’re going to go after all of us law-abiding Second Amendment people!”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/sean-hannity-breaks-with-trump-and-condemns-armed-lockdown-protests-show-of-force-is-dangerous/
The “IT” visa problem is driven by a combination of:
– exceptionally poor knowledge and understanding of “IT” by management of Australian business, leading to the hiring of people whose contribution is barely positive. It is well known that there is a more than 100x productivity differential between those who know what they are good at it and the merely competent, but this news has for some reason yet to reach most Australian general managers
– in the period 2000-2015, Australian undergraduates followed the market away from “IT” courses of study. The reason for this are that they anticipated making more money from various other activities, and this was true in the short term but false in the longer term (and over their lifetimes). The solution is (again) to remove the tax preference driving driving the market away from fundamentals (and also to apply greater smoothing to the resource extraction industry; there are a variety of ways to do this). The former will happen naturally as the ability to maintain the tax preference is exhausted; the latter does require some political skill (however, the recalcitrants have shown their hand).
Leasing of Aircraft is often tax and cashflow effective. Most businesses that use large capital equipment do this. Cranes, trucks, forklifts etc are leased. Aircraft engines are also often leased as a separate item. They may be bought at them end of lease.
On Josh and the tax cut zombie-lie that will not die, by coincidence the guardian has a review of Paul Krugman’s latest book, where he discusses this and several other favourite right wing economic lies and how to counter them.
“Krugman’s enemies are the “zombie ideas” of his book’s title, especially the belief that budget deficits are always bad and the notion that tax cuts for the rich can ever benefit anyone other than the plutocrats who never stop pleading for them.
The same tired arguments in favor of coddling the rich have been rolled out over and over again, by Republican presidents from Ronald Reagan to Donald Trump, even though there has never been a shred of serious evidence to support them.”
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/may/03/arguing-with-zombies-review-paul-krugman-trump-republicans
Andrew_Earlwood @ #218 Tuesday, May 5th, 2020 – 1:23 pm
No, we couldn’t. But, even if we could … why on earth would you want to?
Bucephalus
The ABC is generally speaking located in the same suburbs as the other media outlets and they are centralised because they have been required to cut spending.
Rural and remote businesses are able to access the same support measures other businesses can. It has only been 5 weeks.
On leasing I have also been doing some work on transport leasing costs (cars and trucks) recently. Interestingly I found in almost all cases the lessor charges a lease fee large enough to pay for the entire purchase price over five years, plus a fee. Leasing makes sense for the lessee if the demand for something really is variable, they don’t want to be locked in, and there is a high capital cost for the item. Even then, many leases have expensive escape clauses. But where demand is constant, I found buying makes more sense on any item with a long life.
So why do people lease depreciating assets with constant demand? Tax advantages are the only reason left. But they vary with circumstances and in many cases I have found the fee the lessors charge erodes most of that too. Leasing is an industry with great salesmanship, but I have grown skeptical of the substance. (And all the figures I have been looking at predate Covid 19.)
Why should we give a tax advantage just to prop up the leasing industry? It adds no value.
My conclusion has been that many tax benefits to “help small business” lease assets are more a gift to leasing and finance companies. Call me surprised. Not.
Completely agree.
People such as Anne Aly, Troy Bramston, Tim Soutphommasane and a host of other experts are not criticising KK’s opinion piece about this.
They criticise her statements re:
The issue is also one of language.
KK’s ill-timed opinion piece essentially sends a message of “Australia First”, as did Shorten’s campaign with accompanying ad which Albanese described as “a shocker”.
And don’t @ me that wtte Australia includes aborigines, Chinese, etc. It’s in the same vein as Trump’s “America First” and saying the slogan is inclusive of people of colour, etc.
People susceptible to the implicit message mbedded in the slogan understand exactly what it means.
“Australia First” – the catch-cry of Pauline Hanson.
———-
Edited to include KK’s quotes.
Bu
“Why are large swathes of rural and remote Australia being forced to have their businesses destroyed when there have been no cases of COVID19 either ever for for many weeks?”
No KNOWN cases.
Pegasus
“KK’s ill-timed opinion piece essentially sends a message of “Australia First”, ”
Sends a message…. to whom?
Sounds to me like reverse dog-whistling – people choosing to read too much into a fairly benign and reasonable proposal: put unemployed Australians into jobs before we import workers from overseas.
Continually Insufferable @ #188 Tuesday, May 5th, 2020 – 12:50 pm
Your whole post is factual, and very well put. Thanks.