It’s as easy as APC

A new polling industry standards council takes shape; and the coronavirus polling glut keeps piling higher.

A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.

The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.

Elsewhere:

• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.

• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.

• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,180 comments on “It’s as easy as APC”

Comments Page 38 of 44
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  3. CC
    Yep that is part of it because if the economy was a car it would be long overdue for a service and we are seeing this in the campaign against the restrictions.

  6. @FadAstra tweets

    • iOS users won’t install COVIDSafe because it’ll kill their batteries
    • Android users won’t install it because the app asks for location permissions

  7. The Australian economy is like a football team going for a fourth premiership in a row. It is still a strong side but after a number of players have retired or are past their peak the side isn’t anywhere near as dominate has it once was and it becomes more beatable.

  9. Michael:’But who knows, Victoria has the most left wing government in the country.’

    And aren’t we thankful for that!

  11. Goll @ #1829 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 12:46 pm

    Mundo
    Morrison is toast. When?
    The whole house burning down before we realise or another lucky diversion ?
    Is there a newspoll tonight?
    Tribal says no change if there is a poll.
    Are enough people hurting enough to go against the tribe?
    Recent history suggests not.
    The complete “fuck-up”, the jobseeker/jobkeeper brainwave has however lit the wick.
    Morrison will be secure in his next job before we have another federal election. (for Nath’s sake!)

    Not sure Goll is into the whole Mundo thing or Mundo’s use of the catchcry Scrote is toast!
    Toast I tells ya!

  12. Anybody who thinks the bushfires are over should read this …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/bushfire-recovery-victims-feel-forgotten-because-of-coronavirus/12184918

    Ironically, were contacted just this week, because we had finally made it to the top of somebody’s list of people who had requested clean-up assistance – 5 months after the event.

    Of course, we told them we had no need any longer, since we had done most of the clean-up ourselves, and we knew there were many people still in greater need. But it does show just how inadequate the resources allocated to bushfire recovery have been, and how badly managed the whole process is – still.

    In our area there are still people who lost everything and who have not even had their burned-out house cleared. Many were uninsured, and still can’t begin rebuilding even if they did manage to get some financial assistance – which most have not.

    Bushfire Bill will no doubt be along soon to tell me to stop sooking and just toughen up.

  14. Mexicanbeemer @ #1839 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 12:53 pm

    If there is a newspoll tonight

    Still think the TPP will lend towards the Liberals but that is because many people who form the bulk of this government’s base are still mostly working or are making do in the online space and i am getting a sense that older people are happier to follow the restrictions but men seem more hostile so this might start to come through in the polling. Would like to see some seat-to-seat polling.

    ‘Still think the TPP will lend towards the Liberals’

    D’ya think?

  17. I doubt despite his networking ability, whether Nico Louw has 25,000,000 connections on LinkedIn. Morrison ain’t giving him nothing, and he has proven he shows no loyalty

    It is more likely that if his head gets above the parapet too high, the smirking assassin will have it lopped off.

  20. Reminder

    Newscorp US is an extremist organisation literally killing it’s Fox viewers.

    A disturbing new study suggests Sean Hannity’s show helped spread the coronavirus
    Sophisticated new research links Hannity’s coronavirus misinformation to “a greater number of Covid-19 cases and deaths.”
    By Zack Beauchamp@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com Apr 22, 2020, 8:40am EDT

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/4/22/21229360/coronavirus-covid-19-fox-news-sean-hannity-misinformation-death

  23. Cud Chewer

    And a fig for recovery statistics!

    Fiona Katauskas
    @FionaKatauskas
    ·
    2m
    Just heard from my godmother in the US. She’s in her early 60’s & just had Covid badly for ten days all while trying to deal w her husband’s death from severe Alzheimer’s. A few weeks after recovering it’s come back. Luckily she’s an extremely positive person but JFC it’s nasty

  24. sprocket_ reading the tweet thread it is concluded that it’s a fake. Dee Madigan asks to be removed from retweets further down for that reason.

  25. Looking at the bigger picture, my concern for a while has been that if Australia and NZ reach elimination we can open our domestic economy. The problem is that if the rest of the world reaches Herd immunity, how does Australia rejoin the international market if no vaccine appears.
    Based on that I started to think that the Federal government was hoping to slowly work towards herd immunity, whilst talking suppression.

    The news today that post infection immunity is short lived means elimination or vaccine are the only options on the table.

  26. KK is the most unflappable politician I have ever seen. She fought that hopeless NSW election with so much determination and charisma, she won many people over. She is highly intelligent, can think on her feet and is a great champion of the Labor cause.
    Negative ads wont bother her in the slightest.

  27. CC: “In fact there is no possible scenario where we don’t maintain aggressive border controls and compulsory quarantine at the border for the foreseeable future.”

    Agreed. IMO, the decision/ability to quarantine those coming across borders is almost entirely responsible for the different circumstances of countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan and, to some extent, South Korea, and most of the rest of the world where the virus is spreading uncontrolled.

    Clearly most European countries never had much of an opportunity to control their borders, and the US and Canada left it far too late.

    But Singapore and Japan are interesting case studies of countries that might have gotten on top of the problems, but failed to do so through poor border protection. In Singapore, possibly due to over-confidence, a policy was adopted of not requiring the families of returning travelers quarantined at home to share in the quarantine. In Japan, they set up government-run quarantine facilities for returning travelers, but Japanese law did not allow the government to compel people to enter them.

    I think what we are seeing at work in terms of coronavirus spread is a phenomenon that might be described as “mild socipathy.” Sufferers are people who are pathologically unable to appreciate that rules that everyone else obeys also apply to them. You encounter them every day: trying to push in at the front of queues of people or motor cars, trying to return goods to a store at which they didn’t purchase them in the first place or, more recently, hoarding toilet paper and other goods and then trying to sell them on ebay, refusing to obey social distancing laws, etc, etc.

    As opposed to the threat imposed by severe sociopaths, these people are usually just a mild annoyance. But, in a situation in which they could potentially become spreaders of a deadly virus, their refusal to obey reasonable social rules is highly dangerous: as we saw with the Aspen couple. So the only way to mitigate the risk of such people (and of what was likely to be a smaller group who were spreading the virus without being aware that they had it) was to force everyone arriving at an international airport to stay in quarantine for 14 days. It’s been hard on the 95 per cent of people who aren’t suffering from mild sociopathy, but, once you start making exceptions, you’ve lost the game.

    And we’ve seen the great results of this in Australia since we put the border controls in place. I think it’s done 99 per cent of the work in getting the numbers of new cases down from hundreds per day to a mere handful now.

  28. PeeBee @ #1825 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 10:35 am

    Imagine if Jacinda Ardern adopted Australia’s Policy of Mid March of allowing cruise ships like the Ruby Princess dock in NZ with special ‘bespoke restrictions’ (remember that in the case of the Ruby Princess this comprised giving passengers a leaflet asking them to self isolate – with no compulsion or monitoring).

    You would rightly think JA was an idiotic moron with shit for brains.

    Now think of what Scot Morrison is advocating – Opening all schools and getting the kids back to learning. What he wants to do is adopt a policy that caused one of NZ’s biggest COVID19 outbreaks originating in a school, Marist College.

    You would have to say SM is an idiotic moron with shit for brains. Especially as he has the benefit of someone else’s experience and should know better.

    Only problem with your argument is that the Ruby Princess did dock several times in New Zealand.

  29. @FionaKatauskas
    ·
    21s

    Re: last tweet- my godmother wasn’t hospitalised and had a technically ‘mild’ case but mild cases are still horrendous

  30. Daniel Andrews are you seeing what QLD are doing. Lift some of your idiotic restrictions, 2 – ball golf allowed, fishing and you can take a learner driver 50km from home. But who knows, Victoria has the most left wing government in the country.

    Daniel Andrews has seen the way the infected Ruby Princess passenger in NW Tasmania has started a cluster of infections there

    AND Victoria has an outbreak of infections from a Ramsay Health Care psychiatric hospital on corner of Albert Rd & St Kilda Rd. Imagine everyone getting back on trams with that raging. Trams are still running but they are empty and absolutely spotless

    Queensland allows people to travel upo 50km from home starting May 2. The Learner driver pinged on Peninsula Link would have been 70 km from home

    Well if entitled yobbos like Geelong Grammer alumni John (Sam) Newman want to play golf I am quite happy for him to play with other like minded folk. Maybe he will qualify for a Darwin Award for improving the gene pool by dying

  32. doyley

    Biggest robbery in Australia but compare and contrast the response from the government and their sponsors , Newscorpse, re union ‘misbehaviour’ and the thieving bustard companies.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………
    But it turns out that Australia’s compulsorary superannuation system has a great big hole in it — one worth $17 billion.

    That’s how much super employers have dodged paying in the past eight years, according to new figures released by the ATO this week.
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/aussie-workers-ripped-off-by-17-billion-in-unpaid-superannuation-ato-reveals/news-story/b66e7135eea2a0e2ba0a84aec83a47fe

  33. Torchbearer

    [She fought that hopeless NSW election with so much determination and charisma, she won many people over.]

    She took over when ALP was behind 55-45 and finished down 64-36.

  34. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 1:29 pm

    Barney the Ruby Princess is responsible for a cluster of 19 cases in Napier, the ship turned back after Napier

  37. The Ruby Princess fateful voyage only made it as far as Napier, before scurrying back to Sydney as one of Morrison’s exceptions. The plague ship did leave her calling card in NZ..

    “New Zealand visit
    The Ruby Princess berthed in Napier on March 15, one of the last New Zealand port visits by any liner and ultimately the last port of call in the country on a shortened New Zealand cruise before heading to Sydney where it disembarked passengers.

    The boat’s docking has led to a cluster of Covid-19 cases in Hawke’s Bay, including six in Gladys Mary Care Home in Napier.

    One of the 12 nationally significant clusters in New Zealand, it involves 16 people who have tested positive for Covid-19, comprising up to 10 Hawke’s Bay people – four tour guides or bus drivers, the six linked to the rest home, and six New Zealand passengers from the liner.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Tuesday she had asked Attorney General David Parker to seek legal advice on whether the Ruby Princess and its operators had fulfilled all legal obligations.

    • Covid19.govt.nz: The Government’s official Covid-19 advisory website

    The Prime Minister said that “of course” the obligation on the cruise company was to ensure no unwell person disembarked in the circumstances that were developing.

    In relation to the Napier call, she said: “I have been advised that those assurances were directly sought by the Medical Officer of Health from the captain directly before individuals disembarked.”

    -With Hawke’s Bay Today

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12323910

  38. The Ruby Princess is apparently out of range which i am not sure if is normal or not but it raises a question as to why it would seemly disappear off radar.

  39. Shellbell, how would you rank these Opposition leaders? Before the star power of BarryO’Farrel swept them to government?

    Peter Edward James COLLINS
    (Liberal) 04.04.1995 – 07.12.1998

    Kerry Anne CHIKAROVSKI
    (Liberal) 07.12.1998 – 28.03.2002

    John Gilbert BROGDEN
    (Liberal) 28.03.2002 – 01.09.2005

    Peter John DEBNAM
    (Liberal) 01.09.2005 – 04.04.2007

  40. Ryan Struyk‏Verified account @ryanstruyk

    Reported US coronavirus cases:

    8 weeks ago: 69 cases
    7 weeks ago: 444 cases
    6 weeks ago: 2,826 cases
    5 weeks ago: 25,740 cases
    4 weeks ago: 121,285 cases
    3 weeks ago: 311,544 cases
    2 weeks ago: 529,887 cases
    1 weeks ago: 734,969 cases
    Right now: 938,154 cases

    Reported US coronavirus deaths:

    8 weeks ago: 1 death
    7 weeks ago: 19 deaths
    6 weeks ago: 58 deaths
    5 weeks ago: 323 deaths
    4 weeks ago: 2,043 deaths
    3 weeks ago: 8,488 deaths
    2 weeks ago: 20,604 deaths
    1 week ago: 38,903 deaths
    Right now: 53,755 deaths

  41. Shellbell,

    I think it’s a bit harsh rating Jodi McKay at 7 – for 2 reasons.

    1. There has only been 6 NSW ALP Opposition Leaders since 2011
    2. She is not the worst

    John Cameron Robertson
    (A.L.P) 31.03.2011 – 23.12.2014

    Linda Jean BURNEY*
    (A.L.P) 05.01.2015 – 08.04.2015

    ​Luke Aquinas FOLEY
    (A.L.P) ​08.04.2015 – 08.11.2018

    ​Michael John DALEY
    (ALP) ​10.11.2018 – 25.03.2019

    ​Ryan John PARK (Acting)
    (ALP) ​07.05.2019 – 29.06.2019

    ​Jodi Leyanne MCKAY
    (ALP) 29.06.2019 –

  42. Sprocket

    Much easier

    Brogden (1), Chicka and DickSticker (10th) and Collins last because he appointed himself a silk

  43. Barney, my point is that you don’t adopt a position that has been shown to be dangerous.

    JA wouldn’t allow a cruise ship to dock now, and rightly so as she can see the problem the Cruise ships have caused.

    Morrison, on the other hand, is pushing to open schools despite the evidence of Marist College showing it is dangerous.

  44. Sprocket

    I was starting from Iemma and did not include the Acting ones.

    Who do you think Jodi is better than, really? She is certainly last on public speaking skills.

  45. And on a more prosaic note, an instrument under the Biosecurity Act has been issued, outlining the rules of the ‘tracing app’ – worth a read

    Biosecurity (Human Biosecurity Emergency) (Human Coronavirus with Pandemic Potential) (Emergency Requirements—Public Health Contact Information) Determination 2020
    I, Greg Hunt, Minister for Health, make the following determination.
    Dated 25 April 2020
    Greg Hunt
    Minister for Health
    ….

    4 Object
    The object of this instrument is to make contact tracing faster and more effective by encouraging public acceptance and uptake of COVIDSafe.

    https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2020L00480/Html/Text

  46. @bigjsl
    ·
    4h
    My office is in the CBD above a restaurant, next to a restaurant, next to another restaurant & across the road from a pub. We can see our wifi from all of them. I’m expecting heaps of 15 min “contacts” logged by “the app”. My staff will be dragged into quarantine continuously.

  47. Josh Taylor
    @joshgnosis
    ·
    5m
    There’s going to be a press conference at 3pm for launching the contact tracing app.

    The iPhone version is quite impractical.

  48. What could possibly go wrong ? Sweden on a “grand” scale ?

    Infect Everyone: How Herd Immunity Could Work for Poor Countries
    By Ari Altstedter

    Controversial given the high risk of deaths, a coronavirus strategy discarded by the U.K. is being touted as the solution for poor but young countries like India.

    Herd immunity, which allows a majority of the population to gain resistance to the virus by becoming infected and then recovering, could result in less economic devastation and human suffering than restrictive lockdowns designed to stop its spread, according to a growing group of experts.

    “No country can afford a prolonged period of lockdowns, and least of all a country like India,” said Jayaprakash Muliyil, a prominent Indian epidemiologist. “You may be able to reach a point of herd immunity without infection really catching up with the elderly. And when the herd immunity reaches a sufficient number the outbreak will stop, and the elderly are also safe.”

    A team of researchers at Princeton University and the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, a public health advocacy group based in New Delhi and Washington, has identified India as a place where this strategy could be successful because its disproportionately young population would face less risk of hospitalization and death.

    They said allowing the virus to be unleashed in a controlled way for the next seven months would give 60% of the country’s people immunity by November, and thus halt the disease.

    The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given no indication it plans to adopt such a strategy.

    Full article –
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/a-herd-immunity-strategy-could-actually-work-in-youthful-india?srnd=premium-asia

  49. I figure Robbo would be a contender for last place, judging by PJK’s character reference

    We should give Jodi McKay a fair go, she is nothing if not active – press releases, social media, critiquing the government – mundo would be proud

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