A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.
The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.
Elsewhere:
• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.
• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.
• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.
Sprocket
Robbo did bring ALP a long way back before Foley came in.
sprocket_
I was thinking that Morrison is going to have to do a really good job of explaining how/why it works. People will need clarity. I’m not confident that he can do it.
The tracing app uses Bluetooth not WiFi.
Shellbell @ #1883 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 1:33 pm
To be fair, not all of that is her fault.
NSW Labor is simply unelectable.
Davidwh
If this is an app for half the popn, it will have to be explained very carefully.
Two words.
Diego
Garcia
Assantdj
“Looking at the bigger picture, my concern for a while has been that if Australia and NZ reach elimination we can open our domestic economy. The problem is that if the rest of the world reaches Herd immunity, how does Australia rejoin the international market if no vaccine appears.
Based on that I started to think that the Federal government was hoping to slowly work towards herd immunity, whilst talking suppression.
The news today that post infection immunity is short lived means elimination or vaccine are the only options on the table.”
Agree here. And a vaccine is probably not a short term option.
Australia has no problem with the international market in terms of goods. And yes it bugs me that there are those that think that we can allow the virus to slowly infect people to the point where opening our international borders to people won’t matter, without actually doing the sums and realising what that really means in terms of thousands of cases per day.
Lizzie I wouldn’t use it unless the source code is released and fully critically analysed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/world/europe/denmark-schools-coronavirus.html
I’m loving these lists, here are the NSW Liberal Opposition Leaders during the Wran years, some characters there were..
Sir Eric Archibald WILLIS
(Liberal) 15.05.1976 – 16.12.1977
William Peter COLEMAN
(Liberal) 16.12.1977 – 07.10.1978
John Marsden MASON
(Liberal) 24.10.1978 – 29.05.1981
Bruce John McDONALD
(Liberal) 01.06.1981 – 12.10.1981
John Robert Arthur DOWD
(Liberal) 27.10.1981 – 15.03.1983
Plus of course, Nick Greiner
Biden Assails Stimulus, Calls U.S. Corporations ‘Greedy as Hell’
Joe Biden railed against the coronavirus stimulus packages in an interview published Saturday, calling corporate America “greedy as hell” while demanding legislation that includes stricter conditions on business bailouts and more oversight of the Trump administration.
In the interview with Politico, the former vice president said the next stimulus bill should be “a hell of a lot bigger” than the first $2 trillion CARES Act and assailed big business and banks.
“This is the second time we’ve bailed their asses out,” he said of the big banks.
The presumptive Democratic nominee also said banks like Wells Fargo & Co. are “only alive because of the American taxpayer” and criticized them for prioritizing large corporate clients in securing money from the stimulus package that was set aside for small businesses.
“We knew from the beginning that the big banks don’t like lending to small businesses,” Biden said. “I’m telling you, though, if Main Street businesses don’t get help, they’re gone.”
Full article –
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-26/biden-assails-stimulus-calls-u-s-corporations-greedy-as-hell?srnd=premium-asia
BOB LYNCH @ #1821 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 12:34 pm
Everglades is in Ettalong.
How long have you lived here again?
Shellbell @ #1894 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 1:56 pm
Too easy. Foley. I reckon there aren’t many in the NSW ALP who would want to appear on any list that had Foley as a member.
Player One @ #1904 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:07 pm
Change the name. Re-brand it. Re-structure it.
“I think what we are seeing at work in terms of coronavirus spread is a phenomenon that might be described as “mild socipathy.” Sufferers are people who are pathologically unable to appreciate that rules that everyone else obeys also apply to them. You encounter them every day: trying to push in at the front of queues of people or motor cars, trying to return goods to a store at which they didn’t purchase them in the first place or, more recently, hoarding toilet paper and other goods and then trying to sell them on ebay, refusing to obey social distancing laws, etc, etc.”
meher whilst I basically agree with this, it does emphasise how inherently unstable a “suppression” scenario actually is. Unstable and quite frankly, dangerous. Yet Scomo and his sycophantic CMO are (trying to at least) walk us blindly into this – assuming suppression is a viable, minimal risk option.
Sprocket
The Lib leaders in the Wran years would be as difficult to rate in order as post Carr ALP leaders.
Simon Katich @ #1906 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:08 pm
The banner saying “Mission Accomplished” should probably have been a clue … 🙁
Davidwh
I ‘meet’ so few people each fortnight that I doubt I’d be much use to the tracking. I just think that for clarity, if he really wants high involvement, Morrison needs to persuade, not bully.
Rex Douglas @ #1914 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:15 pm
I hear the name “Ruby Princess” is now available.
lizzie @ #1902 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:06 pm
It was a critical mistake having ministers such as the double dolt Stuart Robert promote it.
Promotion should have been left to health officials only.
lizzie
I’m quite happy here in isolation and plan to be so until Hunter New England has had no cases for 2-3 weeks. I fear I may not be back in Sydney for some time.
dave @ #1911 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:12 pm
Nice sound bites.
Believable …?
WA has posted zero again today. Good.
Player One @ #1919 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:17 pm
Ruby Princess plague ship or NSW Labor – which has the worst reputation …?
Player One @ #1914 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:17 pm
Don’t joke, the current crop of brainiacs at Labor HQ would probably think that was a good idea.
COVIDSafe is the name of the tracing app – the marketers have been consulted.
Even so, I think the drafters have had a good go at defining the limitations on usage – informed consent appears to be built in
https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2020L00480/Html/Text
I will probably download it
Rex Douglas @ #1925 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:26 pm
Ask me another 🙁
What a simplistic reconstruction of NSW political history OC and shellbell are trying to foist upon us today about Kristina Kenealley’s time as Premier of NSW. The whole 15 months of it. I mean, how pathetic must you be to try and pin Labor’s atrocious polling at the time on her? And conveniently forget to mention the names, Eddie Obeid, Joe Tripodi and Ian Macdonald, Angela D’Amore, Reba Meagher, Tony Kelly, Karyn Paluzzano and the Wollongong MPs, who were the real causes of Labor’s problems with the electorate.
That KK did more than dodge the Eddie Obeid/Joe Tripodi political bullet, didn’t try to cover for them at ICAC and lived to thrive and prosper another day is evidence enough of her skill and talent.
Everglades Country Club
Address Dunban Road Woy Woy
According to its own website.
It looks like the app is ready to go (what could possibly go wrong?)
https://www.covidsafe.gov.au/
sprocket_ @ #1932 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:43 pm
Player One
They should have been ‘unelectable’ for at least the previous 2 elections. Gawd the NSW Libs must have been dire.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/26/never-seen-such-need-mps-swamped-as-australians-adjust-to-life-in-a-pandemic
BOB LYNCH @ #1931 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 2:39 pm
Well, Woy Woy goes further than ever I thought:
https://profile.id.com.au/central-coast-nsw/about?WebID=540
yeah it takes in a whole lot of rugged terrain and bush too 🙂
Oh and a garbage dump.
I just realised what that face reminded me of: Fats the demonic looking ventriloquists dummy from the movie Magic (1978).
https://www.smh.com.au/money/insurance/insurers-face-parliamentary-probe-on-covid-19-response-20200423-p54mki.html
http://www.ventriloquistcentral.com/magic/main.htm
WA now allowing gatherings of 10.
Good move.
That ain’t no garbage dump.
It’s a ‘Waste Management Facility ‘ if you don’t mind.
The graph I posted 2 pages back based on this research
https://jasonthompsondotblog.wpcomstaging.com/2020/04/24/knifes-edge/
had an incorrectly labelled x axis. The situation is actually better – by a month. Again this is detailed simulation work (my own simulations painted a similar picture btw).
Notice how there is a small possibility of elimination even in mid May and the probability graph climbs rapidly in June. Growing to a 90% probability in the first week in July. And 100% certainty by early August.
This is the same simulation being run many times over. Random events (small outbreaks) occur.. but elimination in time is a certainty. I hope this will answer some of Blobbit’s questions for good.
On the subject of school closures
I live in the Wait Awhile state, according to our local pharmacy and medical clinic, nobody local has tested positive and there’s no unexplained illnesses bubbling along.
Prior to school holidays the attendance level at the local primary was 15 percent, the number of kids who are expected to return on Wednesday is north of 60 percent, this means that physical distancing will be possible in the classroom. You could infer from that that it is probably low chance of an infection.
But the people who will definitely send their children back to school are those who are also most likely to believe that all this fuss over a virus, that is not infectious to children, and that the whole restrictions and lockdown were a waste of time. They unfortunately are the weak link in this scenario that could see the spread of the disease, especially if someone infected then passes it to a health worker or other person with a job with face to face public duties.
So the conversation in this house continues, currently leaning towards another week or two of grandma classes. I don’t know that the 8 year old will relish that as I’m tougher on spelling, legible writing than any of her teachers.
If it looks like a garbage dump and smells like a garbage dump…
Assantdj
If I were a parent in WA I’d wait for a week of zero cases – or two if in the Perth metro area. That event is coming soon. I’d also be lobbying hard for teachers and staff if not kids to wear masks.
How does the app know you are less than 1.5m from someone? Or is it just if you are in Bluetooth range (about 5-10m)?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-rvoMOgYv4
3.5 hours of mindless, unadulterated violence and gore.
That should help you guys to relax and not think about covid19 🙂
(works for me)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/wa-relaxes-stage-3-coronavirus-restrictions/12186258
Not sure Dio. Bluetooth does have a signal strength indicator which is a crude way to estimate distance. Not sure if its being used by this app though.
Besides, I’d rather it pick up contacts at full range (~10m) because that’s the danger zone if indoors.
GG
That car crash was about 50m from where I live. That intersection is one that Nicolle Flint said she’d fix as an election promise.