It’s as easy as APC

A new polling industry standards council takes shape; and the coronavirus polling glut keeps piling higher.

A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.

The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.

Elsewhere:

• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.

• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.

• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,180 comments on “It’s as easy as APC”

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  1. Maxine Beneba Clarke
    @slamup
    ·
    1h
    Why can’t the PM get that kids ‘going to school’ isn’t just kids going from home to class? My kid, for example, catches public transport to & from school. Not school specific transport, *public* transport. With workers, grocery shoppers etc. As do tens of thousands of other kids.

  4. this is for the comfortable people – i’m only going to say this once and I don’t want to have a conversation about it but facebook and google et al cannot send the police to your house and they cannot make up a debt that you owe them and then force you to pay it – grow up— F Onthemoon (@firstdogonmoon) April 26, 2020

  6. Cud Chewer
    We are technically in the Perth metro but on the fringe.
    The other factor that has caused some angst is that both parents are still in non home based work.
    They have been really good about following the process I put in place, entering via front door straight into shower, into clean clothes. Nothing comes into the house without cleaning or being left for a couple of days to decontaminate. Both carry personal sanitizer and clean steering wheels knobs etc daily.

    I would have liked more testing earlier but due to a recent visit to RPH and a subsequent sore throat I was tested and am negative.

    Isolating with the grandkids has caused some challenges and I don’t want to jinx the family but so far so good.

  7. I just installed the CovidSafe app for android and it keeps telling me I have an invalid mobile phone number. It has the +61 prefix and it will not accept my phone number with or without the leading zero.
    Over to you Stuart!

  14. Someone accused me of making things up re hand over heart. No just a bit of research. Admittedly most of the info is US dominated but that doesn’t mean the US owns a particular gesture. There is even a Czech study on the gesture on the web.

    It is not a US only gesture, or even a western culture gesture.

    Do some research you may learn something.

  15. bronwen algate
    @only2beyourself
    ·
    2m
    And what about Farhad Bandesh being frogmarched into high security detention after appearing on Q&A. And other gross transgressions against justice. How is Dutton so untouchable?

  16. BK
    Be like Jon Kudelka. He considers it a win if his phone doesn’t immediately catch fire after installing the app 🙂

  20. I think we are seeing the first fwark up by Stuart Robert, who is responsible for the app and notably absent from the presser.

    If you can’t register till,6pm, why release it earlier for download when people find it doesn’t work? The negative reviews on the Apple AppStore will trigger automatic suspension.

  23. sprocket_
    It takes an especially dumb effort to launch an important app like this and stuff it up so badly.
    Then again, it IS Stuart Robert.

  24. Cud Chewer says: Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 3:59 pm

    SA zero for the fourth day in a row.. this may be the beginning of the end…

    *********************************************************

    Or as Churchill put it – “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

    Lets tread carefully and SLOWLY stepwise ease restrictions – and see what happens at each step

  25. I dont think it is ‘deep water’. I reckon that is an incorrect translation.
    Reduplication generally means ‘a lot of’ or greater intensity.
    Brisbane Water is shallow and the deeper parts would be down around C@ts region.

  26. Kristina Keneally I doubt could get elected as Prime Minister. Because Australian society is quite misogynistic (you only need to see how Julia Gillard was treated as Prime Minister by some Australians). Also, the Coalition can win elections by being somewhat misogynistic in their rhetoric.

  28. Christine Milne AO
    @ChristineMilne
    Victoria has released a $16m Arts package because of devastating effect of #Covid19. Time for Tas to step up. Arts critical to us.

  29. Doctors and family members of patients from the private psychiatric clinic at the centre of a COVID-19 outbreak in Melbourne are outraged by what they call “appalling” communication and a lack of transparency, raising concerns over Victoria’s management of future outbreaks.

    After an investigation into the outbreak was announced on Friday, Victorian Deputy Chief Health Officer Annaliese van Diemen on Saturday defended the state’s response.
    “But we are obviously reviewing all of the actions that have been undertaken.”
    _______________________________________________________

    Victorians are entitled to more than simply a review of all of the actions undertaken.
    We want a full explanation from Jenny Mikakos as to what went wrong.

  30. tips for newspoll is there is one?

    I’m going 53-47 Coalition (tempted to go 54-46), not what i am hoping for but what I am expecting

    the narrative out there is how well ScoMo has handled everything

  31. Tristo
    I don’t agree because the problem with Gillard and she admitted it was how she became PM and why was not well handled. If Anna, Anastasia or Glady can win shows it is possible for a women with the right policies can win. It is a what if but had Rudd won a DD in 2010 then retired in 2012 with Gillard taking over then she could well have won in 2013.

  32. “ Newspoll tonight.
    Mundo has a good feeling.
    That nuanced tone Albo has set should yield big dividends.
    Mundo is so excited!”

    Mundo is a narcissist fuckwit who hasn’t worked out that the election is next year or 2022.

    Mundo the fuckwit narcissist hasn’t cottoned on to the fact the litmus test for Moses Morrison will be what he and his government will get up to after they open up the country for business again. Already the signposting isn’t good.

    Expect the ‘glamouring’ effect (Tru Blood Reference) and ‘how good is the father of the nation’ mentality to fall away real fast when the shit really hits the fan and if all the government is offering is business tax cuts for some and tax hikes – austerity for the rest of us.

    Then, Albo’s position will start to pay dividends.

    Mundo the fuckwit narcissist probably thinks that chess is best played by thinking ahead one move at a time.

  33. Australian Chief Medical Officer Professor Brendan Murphy won’t be rushed into allowing professional sport to return.

    Professor Murphy and the Heath Protection Principle Committee will hear proposals from leading sports leagues later this week for how they plan to handle COVID-19 threats while resuming training and playing.

  34. Holdenhillbilly

    Was it yesterday that Morison was waxing enthusiastic about professional sport? Watching it is apparently the most important activity for the health of the nation.

  36. The Australian government has promised a $1.1 billion health and domestic violence package to help protect vulnerable Australians during the COVID-19 crisis. But one of the most vulnerable groups of all, Aboriginal women and their children, may see little benefit at all.

    Recent cuts to critical Aboriginal family violence services mean support for Aboriginal women and children vulnerable to domestic violence was already going backwards before the government’s latest promises. New restrictions and social distancing also pose a unique challenge to the Aboriginal community-controlled sector, community health, social and family services that are relied on by Aboriginal women for family violence support.
    …
    The National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation mobilised early to protect Aboriginal communities from COVID-19 and has worked hard to establish with the government an emergency response management plan to ensure an adequate response to the virus itself and its broader health impacts.

    But recent advice from the Australian Indigenous Doctors Association suggests that Aboriginal people continue to face racism in the health system when seeking COVID-19 testing and treatment.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/indigenous-women-face-particularly-high-risks-in-this-crisis-20200420-p54lh2.html

  37. I find it hard to believe just how much aggro mundo generates amongst the Labor partisans here with his fairly innocuous posts.

    That probably means he’s doing something right! 🙂

  39. samantha maiden says she went to a one hour briefing with the experts who designed it. So journos will be able to answer all questions? Right?

  40. A comment from a user on the Google Play page for this app –

    “I had problems with registration so emailed support with this reply,

    “Hi Allan Thank you for your report. While the COVIDSafe app is available for download, we have currently disabled the registration process. At this stage we recommend that you uninstall the app until the registration process is brought back online. We expect this to be later today, so we recommend you reinstall the app this evening. Thank you for your patience.

    Regards, The COVIDSafe support team”

    https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.health.covidsafe

  41. Mexicanbeemer

    The essence of comedy is the shock of surprise, followed by laughter. It might work once or twice with the same joke, but Mundo has ceased to be surprising.

  42. “Or as Churchill put it – “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.””

    Yes, that’s the phrase I’m looking for 🙂

  46. “but elimination in time is a certainty. I hope this will answer some of Blobbit’s questions for good.”

    Not sure what questions. I don’t doubt that elimination is possible, it’s always been a question of time. I did read that post and while it’s a nice contribution it does rest on some assumptions; both the early and late elimination cases. Not clear at all how sensitive it is to those assumptions.

    One thing in critical of, and I think the author of it is aware of, is lumping all of Australia together. Given the travel restrictions, that’s pretty limitation.

  47. Derryn Hinch is saying that we should all download the app because the lockdown will then end sooner. Only if the testing regime is boosted by a big factor, surely.

  49. “It takes an especially dumb effort to launch an important app like this and stuff it up so badly.”

    Not when there’s a significant sector who are going to say it was stuffed up whatever happens.

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