No Newspoll this week it seems – which is unfortunate, because a report in New York Times ($) suggests coronavirus lockdowns are doing wonders for opinion poll response rates:
Even in online surveys, pollsters have also seen an increase in participation over the past few weeks. At the Pew Research Center, which does most of its polling through the online American Trends Panel, many respondents filled in a voluntary-comments box in a recent survey with expressions of gratitude.
It is inferred that “a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think, so it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population.”
Coronavirus is rather less conducive to the staging of actual elections, the latest casualty being the May 30 date that was set for Tasmania’s Legislative Council seats of Huon Rosevears, which was itself a postponement from the traditional first Saturday of the month. The government has now invoked a recently legislated power to set the date for a yet-to-be-determined Saturday in June, July and August. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has expressed the view that a fully postal election, as some were advocating, did not count as an election under the state’s existing Electoral Act.
Tasmania and other jurisdictions with elections looming on their calendars might perhaps look to South Korea, which proceeded with its legislative elections on Wednesday. As reported in The Economist ($):
All voters will have their temperature taken before entering their polling station (those found to have fever or other symptoms will be directed to a separate polling booth). They will also have to wear a face mask, sanitise their hands and put on vinyl gloves before picking up a ballot paper and entering the booth. Election stewards will ensure people keep away from each other while queueing and voting. Door knobs, pencils and ballot boxes will be sterilised often.
Other than that, I can offer the following in the way of recommended reading: Antony Green’s post calling for pre-poll votes to be counted under wraps on election day starting from 2pm. This would address issues arising from the huge imbalance between election day booths, only one of which processed more than 4000 votes at the May 2019 federal election, and the three weeks’ accumulation of votes cast at pre-poll booths, of which 901 cleared 4000 votes, including 208 that went above 10,000 and ten with more than 20,000 (UPDATE: Make that 370 of more than 4000 and 208 of more than 10,000 – turns out the numbers in the table are cumulative). The result is that the largest pre-poll booths are not reporting until very late at night, many hours after the last trickles of election booths runs dry.
This has sometimes caused election counts to take on different complexions at the end of the evening — to some extent at the Victorian state election in November 2018, which ended a little less catastrophic for the Liberals than the election day results suggested, and certainly at the Wentworth by-election the previous month, when Liberal candidate Dave Sharma briefly rose from the dead in his struggle with the ultimately victorious Kerryn Phelps. It is noted that pre-poll votes in New Zealand are counted throughout election day itself, which is made practical by a ban on any election campaigning on the day itself, freeing up party volunteers for scrutineering who in Australia would be staffing polling booths.
Antony also argues against reducing the pre-poll period from three weeks to two, for which there has been quite a broad push since last year’s election, as it will lead to greater demand for the less secure option of postal voting, stimulated by the efforts of the political parties.
Also note my extensive post below on recent events in Wisconsin – you are encouraged to use that thread if you have something to offer specifically on American politics.
imacca
“We actually need reliable evidence that community transmission is NOT happening. Only way to get definitive on that is reliable widespread random testing, or reliable sewage testing”
That’s two things. However…
As the number of carriers gets closer to zero, random testing doesn’t help. Just the nature of the beast.
Sewage testing is limited to the threshold of detection of the test. If there’s only a dozen positive people contributing to a million litres of sewage, chances are its not detectable.
The best method is to look at the number of days without a case and then model the maximum number of carriers that would escape detection for the given number of days. The longer you go without cases, the less probability of there being any carriers left.
The WA figures for cases in the last fourteen days that are not cruise ship/travel related and source was “under investigation” were one case only on each of 12,15&16 April and two cases on 7 and 8 April for a total of seven out of 2.2 million people.
What the Health Department Media releases do not tell us is the results of the investigations of those declared as “under investigation” in the daily reports. I expect that they are highly likely to have come into contact with the imported cases somehow.
If there was significant community transmission occurring we wouldn’t have had a run since 9 April of unexplained cases of 0,0,0,1,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0 – this is a psephology site where most should have some understanding of probability and statistics. The argument that the community could have a mass of asymptomatic carriers without a mass of symptomatic carriers is unscientific codswallop.
Incidentally I just head Jacinda on newsradio. She said that level 3 would remain for 2 weeks because that represents a cycle of infection and it means being able to measure what effect it has. She’s able to listen to experts and explain it in plain language.
C C
Jealous sigh.
Domestic air travel within Australia is an essential service. Govt should take ownership.
In WA anyone who has a test for a respiratory infection or flu has been tested for COVID19 since 9 April – that’s how I got my negative test result. There was significant random sampling being done by Path West before that date with zero results.
The government buying Virgin should be a no-brainer.
Well I never!
News Corp Australia’s newswire service is aiming to be ready to launch by the end of June and is casting the net for staff in most major capitals as well as an editor-in-chief to head up the ambitious enterprise following the company’s decision to pull out as a shareholder of AAP.
With the likely impending closure of Australian Associate Press’ newswire service after 85 years, News Corp Australia (publisher of The Australian) has further detailed its plans for a newswire service to provide content to its own mastheads as well as other potential media partners.
Mel Mansell, who is heading up the project going by the working title of NCA NewsWire, said the wire service would be a “back-to-basics” operation focusing on the fundamentals of reporting.
“It’s breaking news, business and sport. It’s delivered quickly and accurately. It’s going to be a very dynamic organisation. It’s probably safe to say that in many ways it’s going back to journalism 101. You know who, what, when, why. We’re getting them all in the first three pars.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/news-corp-aims-for-a-june-wire-launch/news-story/46955e4a7625879335049dc02032b2c6
lizzie @ #408 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 4:21 pm
That $80,000,000,000 could come in handy right now…
poroti
“In the past 24 hours, 176 people arrived in WA from overseas and interstate, of which 72 were essential workers exempt from quarantine, and 82 were placed in 14-day mandatory quarantine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/20/australia-coronavirus-live-news-nsw-victoria-qld-contact-tracing-app-schools-exit-strategy-latest-updates”
Um.. what happened to the other 22 people?
a rsays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 3:56 pm
“Though if you qualify your “human activity” with something about “involving the exchange of goods and services” you’d be closer.”
Everything we do can be analysed by economics because it comes down to the allocation of limited resources. For example meditating or praying is an economic activity because it uses the one resource we can never replace – time. There’s a benefit and an opportunity cost when you meditate.
Everything we do is also political. Just the decision to get out of bed is political as Boris and the Sunday Times have discovered.
SA Health has confirmed no new cases of COVID-19 in the state, for the third day in a row.
poroti: “The difference between our 3 and their 4 would be less than ‘official’ definitions.There would be plenty of businesses that could officially remain open under level 3 but closed anyway due to lack of ‘foot traffic’ . Are we arguing over 3.5 v 4.0 ?”
I can’t speak about the rest of Australia, but in Hobart many construction sites and workshops of various types have been continuing to operate; big stores like Officeworks, Bunnings, Big W, JB HiFi and KMart are open as well as lots of independent retailers (book shops, gift shops, furniture shops, etc.); most coffee shops and many restaurants are doing takeaway, Maccas, KFC, etc are open; vehicle showrooms and repair firms are open on a limited basis, etc.
None of this type of activity has been permitted in NZ. And over there people – including couples who live apart – have not been allowed to visit in each other except in special circumstances.
So – at least in Tasmania – Australia’s level 3 seems to have been pretty different to NZ’s level 4.
lizzie @ #410 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 4:23 pm
I suppose he wasn’t there either. 😐
Cud Chewer
Crew flying planes ?
PhoenixRed
“While the flu was referred to as the “Spanish Flu,” it actually had nothing to do with Spain”
I had been told (I don’t know if true or not) that it was called the “Spanish Flu” because Spain was neutral during WWI. The UK, France, and US were still at war, and their governments wanted their people to think the flu wasn’t a problem for them, to keep up morale. So their propaganda pretended the flu was mostly a problem for Spain.
Like I said, I don’t know if this is accurate or an urban myth
buce: “People have been going to the beach (although that is probably over now except for the Polar Bears) ”
Alas, the ocean is probably still more inviting over your way at this time of year than it is in southern Tasmania at the height of summer. 🙁
I thought flight crew were required to isolate…
Bucephalus says:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 3:32 pm
With no evidence of community transmission in WA it is time for WA to get businesses open again as soon as possible.
——————————————————————-
As long as you also re-open the morgues.
Blobbitt: “Here’s a question – what do people think the economy is, if it isn’t just the sum of human activity?”
Many on PB think it’s got something to do with the Liberal Party.
Funnily enough, so do a lot of voters (wrongly, but, by repudiating the Hawke-Keating era, Beazley led the public to this viewpoint).
Aha ! …I knew something about him wasn’t quite right
Bucephalus
“The argument that the community could have a mass of asymptomatic carriers without a mass of symptomatic carriers is unscientific codswallop.”
No, it’s not. It’s because you don’t understand the nature of Covid-19. If the virus is circulating among younger people, it could be maintained for several cycles of infection before reaching someone who is prone to show symptoms (like an elderly or immunocompromised person).
In a crude sense, the elderly (or people with compromised immune systems) are the canaries in the mine.
meher babasays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4:30 pm
When we had our German Au Pairs a sunny day in August meant the bikinis were on and they were off to the beach. That’s when I had a full steamer wetsuit on for wave sailing.
I’ve done more than one ANZAC Day in 30 plus with Sunburn and others in pea soup fog and torrential rain.
April and September are the most beautiful times of year in Perth because the wind drops, crisp mornings and beautiful days.
Kakuru: “The fact that the majority of people who carry the Covid-19 virus are asymptomatic, or show extremely low-grade symptoms…”
Is this a fact? My understanding is that most people with what the medical system describes as “low grade symptoms” are still getting quite sick: sick enough to want to stay at home.
beguiledagainsays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4:30 pm
“As long as you also re-open the morgues.”
We’ve had very few deaths relative to population size and our ICU’s have not been over stretched.
My understanding is that hospital A&E presentations are down but I haven’t seen anything on overall seasonal death rates.
Buce
“The argument that the community could have a mass of asymptomatic carriers without a mass of symptomatic carriers is unscientific codswallop.”
You really shouldn’t describe something as unscientific when the thrust of your argument uses the term “symptomatic carrier” which is an oxymoron.
Rex: “How hard will Labor, as the party of Opposition, resist this inevitable push by the LibNats ..?”
Not very hard in practice, because they are in Opposition and do not have a majority of votes in either house, and also because in both 1993 and 2019 they saw what happened to oppositions that campaign on having higher taxes than the government is proposing.
I’m sure they will be critical of some aspects. That’s enough IMO.
Cud Chewer.
The other 22 were Alex Hawke’s relatives.
Buce,
You wait and you err on the side of a little too long.
Risk v reward. I would rather see 2 to 4 weeks of zero, then ease off. The alternative leads back to square 1…
One thing will be for sure re the A&E depts. They will be enjoying not being cluttered up with hordes of sport’s walking and stretchered wounded every weekend.
Fulvio
norty! 🙂
Kakurusays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4:34 pm
“No, it’s not. It’s because you don’t understand the nature of Covid-19. If the virus is circulating among younger people, it could be maintained for several cycles of infection before reaching someone who is prone to show symptoms (like an elderly or immunocompromised person).”
It’s a myth that young people are all asymptomatic with it. Young people are being hospitalised and dying with it.
CC: “Incidentally I just head Jacinda on newsradio. She said that level 3 would remain for 2 weeks because that represents a cycle of infection and it means being able to measure what effect it has. ”
Doesn’t that potentially mean that NZ will retreat from level 3 before Australia does?
“She’s able to listen to experts and explain it in plain language.”
Every NZ expert epidemiologist whose views I have found online have been strongly in favour of keeping level 4 restrictions in place until the virus is eliminated. Clearly she hasn’t been listening to them.
Labor trots out their interrogator extraordinaire Stephen Jones on Karvelas who dutifully falls into line behind the double dolt Stuart Roberts app.
I mean really …?
Alpha Zero
“Risk v reward. I would rather see 2 to 4 weeks of zero, then ease off. The alternative leads back to square 1…”
(Speaking clock voice) Precisely.
We only get one chance to run this experiment.
Diogenessays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4:40 pm
Sorry Dio – I laid off the Sub-Editor last week.
Your research is obviously far more extensive than mine, meher
What’s the bet that when Emperor Donald of Scumbaggery kicks the bucket that Satan will use every single dirty trick he knows to try and palm him off to the Magic Happy Clapper Sky Kingdom.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/trump-plays-misleading-clips-of-support-from-cuomo-at-coronavirus-briefing
My employer has factories and offices in Australia and New Zealand, making products for the building industry. The Australian factory (in Melbourne) has stayed open, but the one in NZ was forced to close.
Dio
The ACT case was acquired overseas. Hows it looking where you are?
meher beher
Could be around 60% (this article is from last month, but I don’t believe it’s changed that much).
——————
As coronavirus outbreaks surge worldwide, research teams are racing to understand a crucial epidemiological puzzle — what proportion of infected people have mild or no symptoms and might be passing the virus on to others. Some of the first detailed estimates of these covert cases suggest that they could represent some 60% of all infections.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x
One possibility would be for the two States that appear to have control (SA and WA) and that have substantial reserve capacity each to relax a different measure for a trial period (four weeks?), whilst maintain borders locked down (divide and conquer) This would provide a path for others to follow, has low (but not zero) risk and due to the reserve has substantial ability to mitigate if something goes wrong.
One problem is timing – coming into winter is not ideal.
Incidental problems are:
– it will appall the “kitchen sink” brigade, who are satisfied only if/when all possible measures have been taken
– it will annoy the “decisive government” brigade, who are satisfied only with uniformity around single “right” approach, predicated on the government(s) somehow knowing that approach
The former is just stupid; the latter might make some political sense (and might overflow into compliance) but the reality is that no-one knows what will happen and currently at least reality trumps politics
It is understood big four accounting firm Deloitte will be appointed as Virgin Australia’s administrators.
The move comes after the federal government rebuffed the airline’s request for a $1.4bn emergency loan as part of a wider industry bailout package and despite duelling aid offers from NSW and Queensland, each of which wanted to host Virgin Australia’s HQ.
It is not clear what will happen to the approximately 10,000 people who work for Virgin Australia if it goes into administration. Also unclear is what will happen to its fleet of 130 planes, many of which are heavily mortgaged.
Bu
“It’s a myth that young people are all asymptomatic with it. Young people are being hospitalised and dying with it.”
I never said that. I said younger people are *much more likely* to be asymptomatic (or show mild symptoms) compared to elderly people. The statistics are unambiguous on this point.
Hey, Theo!
Our state ain’t your guinea pig!
Kakuru
If 60% are covert cases then 40% are overt cases so when you claim that there’s a whole cohort of young asymptomatic carriers what happened to the 40%? Are you claiming all “young” cases would be covert because the global evidence does not appear to support that outcome?
Buce,
This is the current thinking of the Health Minister (someone you may recognise from your side of the political fence):
It’s understandable that patience may be running thin.
That thoughts such as, ‘Things are getting better, so let’s call an end to this thing now,’ may percolate.
But now is a critical time to stick solid & keep self-isolating.
You are doing brilliantly. You are saving lives. pic.twitter.com/obh80IiV0R
— Greg Hunt (@GregHuntMP) April 19, 2020