No Newspoll this week it seems – which is unfortunate, because a report in New York Times ($) suggests coronavirus lockdowns are doing wonders for opinion poll response rates:
Even in online surveys, pollsters have also seen an increase in participation over the past few weeks. At the Pew Research Center, which does most of its polling through the online American Trends Panel, many respondents filled in a voluntary-comments box in a recent survey with expressions of gratitude.
It is inferred that “a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think, so it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population.”
Coronavirus is rather less conducive to the staging of actual elections, the latest casualty being the May 30 date that was set for Tasmania’s Legislative Council seats of Huon Rosevears, which was itself a postponement from the traditional first Saturday of the month. The government has now invoked a recently legislated power to set the date for a yet-to-be-determined Saturday in June, July and August. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has expressed the view that a fully postal election, as some were advocating, did not count as an election under the state’s existing Electoral Act.
Tasmania and other jurisdictions with elections looming on their calendars might perhaps look to South Korea, which proceeded with its legislative elections on Wednesday. As reported in The Economist ($):
All voters will have their temperature taken before entering their polling station (those found to have fever or other symptoms will be directed to a separate polling booth). They will also have to wear a face mask, sanitise their hands and put on vinyl gloves before picking up a ballot paper and entering the booth. Election stewards will ensure people keep away from each other while queueing and voting. Door knobs, pencils and ballot boxes will be sterilised often.
Other than that, I can offer the following in the way of recommended reading: Antony Green’s post calling for pre-poll votes to be counted under wraps on election day starting from 2pm. This would address issues arising from the huge imbalance between election day booths, only one of which processed more than 4000 votes at the May 2019 federal election, and the three weeks’ accumulation of votes cast at pre-poll booths, of which 901 cleared 4000 votes, including 208 that went above 10,000 and ten with more than 20,000 (UPDATE: Make that 370 of more than 4000 and 208 of more than 10,000 – turns out the numbers in the table are cumulative). The result is that the largest pre-poll booths are not reporting until very late at night, many hours after the last trickles of election booths runs dry.
This has sometimes caused election counts to take on different complexions at the end of the evening — to some extent at the Victorian state election in November 2018, which ended a little less catastrophic for the Liberals than the election day results suggested, and certainly at the Wentworth by-election the previous month, when Liberal candidate Dave Sharma briefly rose from the dead in his struggle with the ultimately victorious Kerryn Phelps. It is noted that pre-poll votes in New Zealand are counted throughout election day itself, which is made practical by a ban on any election campaigning on the day itself, freeing up party volunteers for scrutineering who in Australia would be staffing polling booths.
Antony also argues against reducing the pre-poll period from three weeks to two, for which there has been quite a broad push since last year’s election, as it will lead to greater demand for the less secure option of postal voting, stimulated by the efforts of the political parties.
Also note my extensive post below on recent events in Wisconsin – you are encouraged to use that thread if you have something to offer specifically on American politics.
WA ED presentations are down between 20% and 50% across hospitals over the last few weeks
http://www.health.wa.gov.au/emergencyactivity/weekly/attendances.cfm
Now would be a time for all those Industry Funds to put their Union Money where their mouth is and buy an airline. So many seem so confident that the Government (=taxpayers) should take an equity stake and it all be right and they can sell out at a profit in the future. Apparently.
Do you know how to make a small fortune investing in airlines?
Start with a big one.
The planes are mortgaged.
This is what i was nervous off, get the existing investors to cover part or all of those mortgages then the government would be more secure in offering financial support to the airline.
“a rsays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 3:56 pm
A political word to throw around, mostly.
Though if you qualify your “human activity” with something about “involving the exchange of goods and services” you’d be closer.”
Fair enough. I’ll go with that one.
Tricot – the economy doesn’t need money. As soon as you have barter, you’ve got an economy really.
Why does this not surprise me in the slightest (of course the media in general haven’t mentioned it):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/far-right-coronavirus-protests-restrictions
Bucephalus
Why should they when the existing share owners are reluctant to do the same.
Kakurusays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4:53 pm
“I never said that. I said younger people are *much more likely* to be asymptomatic (or show mild symptoms) compared to elderly people.”
Um, yes you did:
“If the virus is circulating among younger people, it could be maintained for several cycles of infection before reaching someone who is prone to show symptoms (like an elderly or immunocompromised person).”
On the concern with asymptomatic carriers – that’s an issue, but there isn’t any reason to assume Australia has a particularly higher rate than other countries. The continuing low rate of hospital admission really demonstrates that the level of infection must be small. Combine that with the low positive rate in tests coming back I think we can be fairly confident that there isn’t a large hidden cohort out there.
Which is not to say there are none.
If there was, then there should be a similarly high rate of people with symptoms, and that should feed into hospital admissions.
“DMsays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4:57 pm
WA ED presentations are down between 20% and 50% across hospitals over the last few weeks”
Which could be concerning from a general health POV. Be interesting to know how much of that is just fewer accidents, and how much is people not getting help.
Also probably helped by the low rate of flu infections this year.
Bu
“If 60% are covert cases then 40% are overt cases so when you claim that there’s a whole cohort of young asymptomatic carriers what happened to the 40%? Are you claiming all “young” cases would be covert because the global evidence does not appear to support that outcome?”
I’m not claiming that ALL young people who carry the virus are asymptomatic (or have mild symptoms). But if the average across the entire population is around 60%, then among younger carriers it is likely to be much higher than this.
I’d note that a study from April 2, published in the British Medical Journal, suggested that 78% of people with COVID-19 have no symptoms. Again, this would be expected to be higher among younger carriers. See where I’m going with this….?
meher baba @ #291 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 2:30 pm
Nope. Our stage 3 is nearer to NZ’s stage 4. Just not so well defined or managed.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4:59 pm
Completely agree with you.
If Virgin tanks and QANTAS is left then so be it. If the market is such that there is economic opportunity for another airline then someone will move in.
Perhaps it is a good time to deregulate the domestic market and allow cabotage by international carriers at long last.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4:51 pm
It is understood big four accounting firm Deloitte will be appointed as Virgin Australia’s administrators.
One example of an Australian company that has some out of administration would be nice. The end of Virgin.
Buce
“ It’s a myth that young people are all asymptomatic with it. Young people are being hospitalised and dying with it.”
In Italy, of the 20,000 who have zero were 10-20 and 2 were 0-10. So it’s exceedingly uncommon for a school aged kid to die.
Kakurusays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:04 pm
The place you are going with that is exactly the same as me – it is statistically impossible to have a large cohort of asymptomatic carriers without overt cases occurring in that cohort.
The Liberal death squad in full swing.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/liberal-frontbencher-says-victoria-s-chief-health-officer-peddling-bulls-t-20200418-p54l0m.html
Bu
“Um, yes you did”
Um, no I didn’t. I said if the virus is transferred among younger people, it could be maintained for several cycles without any of the carriers showing symptoms (or serious symptoms, at least). This statement is not all controversial. It’s a statement of the obvious.
I’m not certain if you’re not comprehending some basic epidemiology, or being deliberately mischievous. Or maybe both.
Diogenes says:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:06 pm
Buce
“ It’s a myth that young people are all asymptomatic with it. Young people are being hospitalised and dying with it.”
In Italy, of the 20,000 who have zero were 10-20 and 2 were 0-10. So it’s exceedingly uncommon for a school aged kid to die.
The Liberal death squad is not looking for facts.
Dio,
I’m not talking about young kids dying from it – just whether all in a cohort can be asymptomatic or at least some will be symptomatic.
Regards
B
Kakurusays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:09 pm
“Um, no I didn’t. I said if the virus is transferred among younger people, it could be maintained for several cycles without any of the carriers showing symptoms (or serious symptoms, at least).”
You just moved the goal posts from asymptomatic to not showing “serious symptoms”.
In this environment if you have any symptoms I’m saying you should be getting tested.
Considering Virgin pays no tax and has used profit shifting through Singapore since it was founded, i think there’s a strong case it’s better value for money to buy the airline.
CEO of NRL has fallen on his sword. Just need the CEO of the ARU to get the freaking message and do the same.
CC
Zero again in SA.
I don’t think the politicians and health advisers are capable of holding the line. I think while we’ve got our foot on the throat of the virus we should keep stomping. Another few weeks is nothing in the scale of things.
SA Health have spent an enormous amount of money and effort planning for an epidemic. They would feel confident now that they have enough in place with PPE, taking over the private hospitals, readying ICU beds, training nurses and getting HCWs back from retirement that it’s like there are hundreds of people at the starting gate of a race which is yet to begin.
The public health people have done a great job and deserve kudos but all the egos are in administration or on the wards. And they are getting no credit coz there are no patients. As it stands, Nicola Spurrier will be SA of the Year, the disease chasers will get OAMs and the hospitals are sitting idle and getting no credit.
I think they will roll the dice and say they can cope with the outcome unless it’s snake eyes.
Bu
“In this environment if you have any symptoms I’m saying you should be getting tested.”
I agree. But if you wake up with a slightly sore throat, or a slightly sniffly nose, you could be forgiven for thinking you don’t have Covid-19. Most of the time, you won’t.
B
There is actually very little evidence of kids passing it on to anyone. There hasn’t been a single case in SA.
And we’ve tested a lot.
Dio
What’s the vibe there in SA in terms of what lurks in the shadows? And how aggressive is their testing now?
“Another few weeks is nothing in the scale of things.”
Is anyone there talking about changing things in a shorter period? Apart from schools here (WA) everything else, including the internal border closures, looks set to continue for at least a few more weeks. Borders to the other states are still being said to be months away.
Does anyone know the number of cases for Tasmania for today?
“Diogenessays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:20 pm
B
There is actually very little evidence of kids passing it on to anyone. There hasn’t been a single case in SA.
And we’ve tested a lot.”
You’re braver than me going down that path. International evidence that I’ve been able to find written up also supports that transmission is adults -> kids, not the other way around.
Kids though are pre-adolescents and those > 1 y/o.
Here’s an interesting reference
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa424/5819060
“One pediatric case, with picornavirus and influenza A coinfection, visited 3 different schools while symptomatic
…
The fact that an infected child did not transmit the disease despite close interactions within schools suggests potential different transmission dynamics in children.”
meher baba @ #436 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 2:44 pm
I doubt it very much, that’s not how you unwind restrictions.
I think she would be looking for any sign of the numbers moving in the wrong direction and be ready to re-implement stage 4 restrictions if necessary.
“ Our stage 3 is nearer to NZ’s stage 4. Just not so well defined or managed.”
lil’ michael from Menzies House is trying to build up credibility for ScoMo (how good is ScoMo!) by running down Arden. That’s obvious.
3 out of the 4 Liberal Governments in Australia have been letting Team Australia down big time.
It’s only the 5 Labor governments that have kept Australia in the game. That and ScoMo’s luck (How good is ScoMo’s Luck!).
There has been about a 10% per capital skew on both total infections and deaths in favour of the Kiwis. Largely due to cruise liners.
But for SfM’s complete indolence for 6 weeks since the ‘Announceables’ of late January (the faux China travel ban and ‘calling it’ a pandemic before the WHO) and the liberals (feds and NSW) cruise liner industry clustercuss, Team Australia would have been kicking our Kiwi cousins into the gutter on the back of some awesome Labor Premiers management putting the feckless liberal rabble in Canberra and NSW into a complete monkey grip. NSW aside NZ’s stage 4 is pretty similar to the state and territories stage 3 was P1 said.
“ Zero again in SA.
I don’t think the politicians and health advisers are capable of holding the line. I think while we’ve got our foot on the throat of the virus we should keep stomping. Another few weeks is nothing in the scale of things.”
Yep, let’s get to the end of the first week in May before considering winding back to stage 2. Most of the Stage 1 restrictions are probably with us indefinitely. Alas.
What a surprise.
Baba telling us Labor can’t win elections with higher taxes.
A memo for you Baba.
Neo Liberalism is dead.
Nationalisation is on the agenda. The government have borrowed so much money they make Labor look like misers in comparison.
The whole higher taxes is political death mythology is dying a death.
That unemployment rate has changed that irrevocably.
Edit: A reminder. It was after the depression and WW1we got socialism on the agenda. The NHS social security and the rest. This lasted up until Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
Diogenessays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:20 pm
B
“There is actually very little evidence of kids passing it on to anyone. There hasn’t been a single case in SA.
And we’ve tested a lot.”
Exactly.
Barney
The 2 weeks at stage 3 in NZ isn’t a lot of time to judge the effect of the change. Not when you’re dealing with single digit daily case numbers and there’s essentially no other way to know whats going on.
AE
I’d like to see 3 weeks on zero cases. Preferably 5. Just based on maths.
Conversation with one of my surgeons (call him S) having just talked to my oncologist (O)*:
Me: I met with O, he’s recommending (adjuvant) chemotherapy.
S: That’s because he’s a chemotherapist!
And likewise in the absence of definitive treatment (e.g. vaccine, effective outpatient therapy) an epidemiologist, E, will recommend epidemiological measures at the maximum tolerated dose. Patient (in this case the state represented by the government) listens and decides.
*S and O are part of the same MDT/MDM and refer pts to each other all the time.
The whole straining to find differences between us and NZ and the positive/negatives on Covid management is a pretty arid exercise.
Maybe NZ were attracted to the Wuhan solution more than we were.
Given our performance and that of our cuzzes, we should be happy.
PS I am a Barnaby style dual national
CC
The vibe is the clinicians are sick of going to meetings about patients they don’t have and don’t look likely to have.
Cinderella is magnificently dressed for the ball, but there’s no ball.
This is quite an interesting essay on Morrison and his religion written from an objective viewpoint.
https://www.eternitynews.com.au/opinion/why-the-media-targets-pentecostals/
Dio
I’d rather them have to put up with that than the alternative.
Besides this might be a chance for the medical system to actually do some catching up with elective surgery.
Dio
Remind them they are better off than their US counterparts.
Cud Chewer @ #486 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 3:29 pm
2 weeks is the minimum time it will take to see the impact of any change.
All she is saying is that they are ready to go back if things look like they are going pear shape.
I think your thoughts of further relaxation of restrictions after 2 weeks are fanciful.
“ AE
I’d like to see 3 weeks on zero cases. Preferably 5. Just based on maths.”
NT, WA, Qld, Vic and SA might have close 3 weeks established by 4 May, and I’m not sure there would be much difference in risk in that context they ease to stage 2.
Teams NSW and Tasmania I think are on longer trajectories. …
Edited: I think I’m out by ba week. Put me down for 11 May for the hero states and 1 June for the reprobates.
“Cud Chewersays:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 5:30 pm
AE
I’d like to see 3 weeks on zero cases. Preferably 5. Just based on maths”
What’s maths is that? I’m still not seeing a clear criteria from anyone, either the stop all restrictions now people, or the we must do this until the probability (of what?) is low enough.
This phenomenon concerns me. In Italy, more children have died because of delayed presentation to EDs than of coronavirus. There were four in this study alone.
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2352-4642%2820%2930108-5
In addition, child abuse has gone up a lot with multiple unexplainable fractures in children needing surgery. It’s thought to be due to parents and kids being in prolonged proximity (child abuse goes up in the Christmas holidays).
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/doctors-fear-for-children-amid-pandemic-panic-20200419-p54l62.html
If schools are going back then kids sport should too.
Chewer
Below is not the vibe, but is a statement from the Central Network CEO about the “testing blitz”: