As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has unusually conducted a new poll just a week after the last. This effectively replicates last week’s suite of questions on coronavirus to tie in with an online forum later today involving The Guardian’s Katharine Murphy and Essential Research’s Peter Lewis.
The results show a sharp rise in concern since last week, with 53% now saying they are very concerned, after the three previous fortnightly polls had it progressing from 25% to 27% to 39%. Only 18% now say they consider there has been an overreaction to the thread, down from 33% last week, while 43% now think the threat has been underestimated, up from 28%. These results imply little change to last week’s finding that 39% thought the response about right, though we will presumably have to await publication of the full report later today for a complete set of numbers. The poll also finds overwhelming support for the restrictive measures that have been taken. The rise in concern appears to have been matched by a decline in skepticism about media reportage, which 42% now say they trust, up from 35% last week.
Also out today is a Roy Morgan SMS poll on coronavirus, showing 43% support for the view that the federal government is handling the crisis well with 49% disagreeing — a rather weak result by international standards (it is noted that a similar poll in the United Kingdom a bit under a fortnight ago had it at 49% and 37%). This poll finds an even higher pitch of public concern than Essential, in that only 15% believed the threat to be exaggerated, with fully 81% disagreeing. Relatedly, 80% said they were willing to sacrifice some of their “human rights” to help prevent the spread of the virus (evidently having a somewhat different conception of that term from my own), with only 14% disagreeing. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 988.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The recorded increase in concern about the virus is not matched by a change in perceptions of the government’s handling of it, which 45% rate as good, unchanged on last week, and 31% rate as poor, up two. There is also a question on concern about climate change, which refutes the hopes of some conservative commentators in suggesting it has not been affected by the coronavirus crisis: 31% say they are more concerned than they were a year ago, 53% no more or less so, and 16% less concerned. However, the number of respondents saying Australia is not doing enough to address climate change is down from 60% in November to 55%, with doing enough up one to 23% and doing too much up one to 9%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086.
“Cruise ship link to remote community outbreak
By Hannah Barry
A WA Country Health employee with reported links to the Ruby Princess cruise ship has tested positive while working in a remote East Kimberley community.
Five healthcare workers in the Kimberley tested positive late last week and early this week, including the doctor who is believed to have spent time on board the cruise ship.”
This is going to stand as the single worst thing that happened I suspect – the decisions around the Ruby Princess
mundo @ #1783 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:04 pm
What’s that famous saying?
‘Once you’ve gone black, you’ll never go back!’ 😉
Welcome to the dark side, comrade!
Interesting updated stat from NSW Health
Total number of COVID19 cases in Cruise ships docking in Sydney = 464 = 20% of cases in NSW
I can’t see the cruise industry surviving this (I never understood the attraction in any case)
Blobbit
Most definitely. What a clusterf@@k
C@tmomma @ #1801 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:34 pm
That’s considered offensive/racist these days and shouldn’t be said.
Thanks Shellbell
I think the ferrets being used by the CSIRO to test COVID-19 vaccines deserve hero recognition.
Bucephalus @ #1707 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 1:13 pm
How is it that you, a West Australian, are so familiar with Upper House NSW Labor MPs?
OC
For the young, it is like a Contiki trip without having to get off the bus.
For the old, its travelling without having to move much.
Blobbit
Remote communities being infected will also be a real disaster.
“Blobbit
Remote communities being infected will also be a real disaster.”
Yes, it will. No way to see anything positive there.
This is one where I’m not sure the WA, QLD and NT governments are getting on top of it. Any chance of doing anything will need assistance from the military I think. Hopefully there’s something happening.
That’s really the only organisation I can see that can support the required logistics.
Victoria @ #1798 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 1:28 pm
From the link…
“Streamline” is right up there with “efficiency”.
What beautiful camouflage.
phoenixRED @ #1655 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 12:21 pm
I wonder how many of the Evangelical faithful that were defying the Governor’s orders in Louisiana to cease holding Sunday services, have now contracted COVID-19? A follow-up would be very useful and enlightening.
“Streamline” is right up there with “efficiency”.
‘Austerity’ and ‘Productivity benefit in exchange for wage rises’.
Catmomma
I am interested in Australian Politics.
This should be front page news.
Senator self reports and repays her own travel expenses after encouraging an audit into her own travel entitlements.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-senator-repaid-17-000-in-incorrectly-claimed-travel-expenses-20200402-p54gd0.html
World renowned virologist, Dr. Gallo, speaking to Brian Williams about the epidemic on MSNBC a few minutes ago: Within the global virus network a report will come out very soon that we think we have something which could really help right now. We have a vaccine that is not a specific vaccine for this virus, but it’s available now, which I believe will have a major effect for the world.
That is close to word for word from Dr. Gallo, one of virologists who discovered HIV during the AIDS epidemic. Other Bludgers might have already heard about this, but the first time I’ve encountered it in any genre of media coverage.
Now, I return to self-imposed PCD (Pollbludger Comment Distancing). 🙂
All the best to sagacious William Bowe and to his merry band of Bludgers.
Blobitt
The WA Government is as on top of it as any government anywhere. Not only are our state borders closed but you cannot travel between regions within the State without good reason. The WA Police and Army have road blocks and are targeting rat runs off the main roads.
C@tmomma @ #1815 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 1:53 pm
And Costello’s beloved efficiency dividend.
Considering all the discussion on modelling COVID19, it may already have been posted, or at least heard in various sometimes apocryphal forms
All models are wrong, but some are useful
Which was apparently originally – “Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.” G. Box
via
https://medium.com/swlh/all-models-are-wrong-does-not-mean-what-you-think-it-means-610390c40c9c
Late Riser: “FWIW yesterday’s projection using the “best” of the three curves that I’ve been calculating was for 5,103 cases by 5pm (Qld time). Coincidentally https://www.covid19data.com.au/ reports 5,103 at the moment. If today’s reporting follows the usual pattern I expect more to be added before 5pm. Possibly yesterday’s mood was too optimistic. We’ll see.”
I think that hoping to see a result today significantly better than 5,150 or so was definitely “too optimistic”, if not unrealistic. The total yesterday at around 3pm was, according to same website you are citing, 4864 (different aggregators pick different times of the day to draw the line, which is confusing the issue quite a bit ATM).
This means that, in order to achieve your target of 5,103 today, the total of new cases had to be 239 or less: that is, the lowest daily total since 21 March. That seems to me to be a really tough test: I would consider an outcome in which the the total did not increase over a few days to be an encouraging result in the present situation. And, depending on today’s results from WA and SA, we might just have achieved that for three consecutive days.
Am I alone in thinking that a lot of the discussion on here in the past few days – about alleged exponential trends , about how big is the ratio between official numbers of cases and actual cases, about the rates of hospitalisation and death, etc. – is possibly being driven by a group of posters on here who might be said to be “death riding” the statistics? That is, they actually want things to get a lot worse: perhaps because they think it will make ScoMo look bad, or because they have some form of millenarian belief (eg, that the collapse of western civilisation will bring on the socialist utopia), or perhaps simply because they are naturally pessimistic in temperament.
Any common sense reading of the Australian statistics of the past few days would conclude that we have grounds for hope that the curve might soon start to flatten. Yes, we need to get a handle on potential sources of community outbreak, which is the main game going forward: given that, up to now, more than half the case we have seen haven’t featured any transmission in Australia, but this number will hopefully dwindle over time.
Trying to show that things are continuing to get worse, which a couple of posters seem to be doing, seems to me to require a fair degree of manipulation of the statistical evidence.
It looks like the RAH is doing well…
– “Ward 6G” (the COVID19 ward) is at one end of level 6, normally has neurosurgery, craniofacial, ophthalmology and some other stuff – i.e. things that could be moved elsewhere and/or deferred)
RAH (SA), COVID19 Ward (6G), ICU and HITH (Hospital in the Home):
25 Mar – 32 confirmed + 5 probable in 6G, 2 in ICU; 42 HITH
26 Mar – 36 confirmed +5 probable in 6G, 3 in ICU; 48 HITH
27 Mar – 32 in 6G, inc. 6 in ICU (data reporting break?); 42 HITH
28 Mar – 30 in 6G, inc. 7 in ICU; 42 HITH
29 Mar – 23 in 6G, inc. 7 in ICU; 57 HITH (perhaps several from 6G discharged to HITH?)
30 Mar – 31 in 6G, inc. 8 in ICU; 58 HITH
31 Mar – 37 in 6G, inc. 8 in ICU; 62 HITH
1 Apr – 40 in 6G, inc. 6 in ICU; 53 HITH (apparently some pts have now been discharged completely, which is a win)
Bucephalus @ #1816 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:54 pm
Yet I couldn’t tell you who the current WA Liberal Opposition Leader is, nor the Members of the Upper House for that party or the Nationals.
Though I can tell you that the WA Upper House Liberal and Nationals MPs are palying silly bugger politics wrt passing much-needed Emergency legislation. 🙂
Though I can tell you that the WA Upper House Liberal and Nationals MPs are palying silly bugger politics wrt passing much-needed Emergency legislation.
_________________________________________
Lizard instinct from right-wingers
Alpha Zero
She’ll be given a free pass because any criticism will be either sexist or racist or both and she isn’t a Conservative so her heart and intent is pure.
It’s Time @ #1820 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:57 pm
Which sadly Labor approriated after the GFC due to the Coalition egging them on mercilessly.
New York City had 311 murders in the year of 2019, yesterday it had more COVID-19 deaths than that in a day.
Let that one sink in.
meher baba @ #1822 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:00 pm
Try much harder not to be a pompous idiot. No one here is death riding the statistics. Everyone is looking for clues that control measures are having an effect and that there are no other confounding factors at work.
Bucephalus @ #1826 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 3:04 pm
And she fessed up publicly and wasn’t hounded up hill and down dale till she had nowhere left to hide, like certain infamous female Liberal federal politicians.
Prof Higgins
there has been a suggestion that BCG, the old fashioned TB vaccine may give some protection against COVID
(I hope so – I had it in 1976 and my shoulder had a discharging pustule from the needle sit for the next 18 months)
Interesting that it is still routine in many developing countries (until recently in South Korea) – is this the cause for their low numbers rather than a poorly reporting health system. It has never been routine in most 1st world countries
TPOF @ #1825 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 3:04 pm
It’s how they earn their stripes.
Catmomma
It’s Lisa Harvey. She’s doing a really good job. I watched the preseason Derby with her at HBF Arena.
I’m a little confused – shutting Parliament is bad but Oppositions doing their Parliamentary duty is bad?
Victoria @ #1783 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:15 pm
As I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks, Comrade Morrison seems to have taken this political conversion in his stride. Will Labor move further to the left?
Is there any room over there?
So many questions.
mundo @ #1834 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:10 pm
Best for them to cheer him from the sidelines. More! More!
Alpha Zero: “This should be front page news.
Senator self reports and repays her own travel expenses after encouraging an audit into her own travel entitlements. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-senator-repaid-17-000-in-incorrectly-claimed-travel-expenses-20200402-p54gd0.html”
I don’t agree. As far as I can see Senator McCarthy has not claimed for any trips to which she wasn’t entitled. By a rough calculation of the number of days involved and the amount of money she has repaid, what she has done is to stop off in Sydney on the way to and from Canberra from the NT for a number of days each trip, adding up to 120 days in total. It would seem that these breaks were on the basis of medical advice. Somebody must have pointed out to the Senator that she possibly shouldn’t be claiming travel allowance during these breaks. She has sought advice and, on being told she should repay it, she has done so.
Given the medical advice and if, as I assume was the case, she was working in while in Sydney, I think she had some sort of a case for receiving travel allowance for these breaks. But the umpire has ruled otherwise, so there it is.
Really nothing to see here AFAIAC. In fact, I think it is a bit insensitive for the 9News press to make a thing of it.
Alpha Zero
Given the other news and the fact that she requested the audit herself this is a colossally stupid post.
How TF a Parliamentarian doesn’t know that private travel to get personal medical treatment isn’t Parliamentary business is beyond me. Maybe once or mixed in with some other Parliamentary business but $17,000 worth? That’s having a lend. But as I said above she’s a protected species so will get off with no penalty. The racism of low expectations again.
Am I alone in thinking that a lot of the discussion on here in the past few days – about alleged exponential trends , about how big is the ratio between official numbers of cases and actual cases, about the rates of hospitalisation and death, etc. – is possibly being driven by a group of posters on here who might be said to be “death riding” the statistics? That is, they actually want things to get a lot worse: perhaps because they think it will make ScoMo look bad, or because they have some form of millenarian belief (eg, that the collapse of western civilisation will bring on the socialist utopia), or perhaps simply because they are naturally pessimistic in temperament.
Jeez mate, if we were having this discussion over a beer, I’d be tempted to pour mine on your head right about now.
I’m interested in setting up statistical tests that indicate whether or not measure introduced to curb the spread of the virus are working. So far, every time my statistical analysis of the growth rate shows a significant fall, my summary has been “this is good news”.
What we are doing seems to be helping so far, but the nature of the beast is that we can’t stop to rest on our laurels.
Jolyon Wagg @ #1837 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:13 pm
Perhaps Alpha Zero intended it to mean that it shows how to do accountability properly, which would be front page worthy.
Beyond stupid
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
·
2h
Double exclamation markSTUPID move by
@GovRonDeSantis
. SINGING may aerosolize #coronavirus, enhancing its ability to spread.
#SouthKorea’s outbreak of #COVID19 started in a church group, and a choir group in #WA state got infected via asymptomatic spread while rehearsing.
#CoronavirusPandemic
Quote Tweet
CNN
@CNN
· 4h
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said religious services conducted in churches, synagogues and houses of worship are “essential business” and therefore exempt from this stay-at-home executive order https://cnn.it/3aBZSQs
Bucephalus
Given the industrial scale rorting by the current government your angst is laughable.
lizzie @ #1840 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:16 pm
Is the fact that the latest Qld death was from Ruby Princess even more damning?
Prof Higgins
Just noted that Lachy Murdoch has donated $700K to Royal Melbourne Childrens’ Hospital to run a stage 3 trial of BCG using hospital staff as the subjects
Palaszczuk Has binned the Qld Public Service Pay Rise – she could see the October election looming.
Q: Mr Tehan, what do you think of Labor’s childcare subsidy plan ?
A: “I mean this is a fast track to a socialist, if not communist economy. It is unheard of,” ….“… When they say it is going to be free, taxpayers are paying for this.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/apr/02/coronavirus-update-live-news-australia-nsw-victoria-queensland-qld-tas-act-sa-wa-nt-covid19-latest-updates
Victoria @ #1842 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 12:19 pm
So guns and churches are essential businesses.
They really are fucked!!!!
It’s Time: “No one here is death riding the statistics. Everyone is looking for clues that control measures are having an effect and that there are no other confounding factors at work.”
As I pointed out, there’s a major confounding factor in the statistics, which is the fact that the majority of cases continue to have been contracted overseas or from people who had just arrived/arrived back from overseas. Ideally, we should take all these out and focus on the remainder, but the numbers of the remainder are so low that it’s almost impossible to establish a trend over time: and there’s also the point I keep making that, when people who have contracted the disease swear that they have had no close contact with people who have recently returned from overseas, we need to consider the possibility that they might be covering up for someone for whom they don’t want to cause any trouble.
So the statistics of “community transmission” cases aren’t rich enough to do anything with, and therefore we all fall back on trying to analyse the total numbers. And, at the end of the day, all we can really say about them is that, so far, they haven’t been displaying any of the signs you would expect to see if Australia was about to go down the path of Italy or the US. That story might change quickly and dramatically in the next few days, but there’s no evidence from the current stats to indicate that. Those scouring them in an attempt to find such evidence are investing them with delphic qualities that I don’t believe they possess.
It’s Time @ #1845 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:20 pm
No, because it’s beyond fanciful to think that person would have survived if only they had been forced to stay on the ship with their illness.