The fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses, naturally enough, on coronavirus, with 45% rating the federal government’s response good or very good, and 29% poor or very poor. According to The Guardian’s report, it would seem the latter tend to be those most worried about the virus, as measured by a question on whether respondents felt the situation was being overblown, with which “one third” agreed while 28% thought the opposite.
Over the course of three fortnightly polls, the proportion rating themselves very concerned has escalated from 25% to 27% to 39%, while the results for quite concerned have gone from 43% to 36% and back again. The Guardian’s report does not relate the latest results for “not that concerned” and “not at all concerned”, which were actually up in the last poll, from 26% to 28% and 6% to 9% respectively. Further questions relate to trust in various sources of information, notably the government and the media, but we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today to get a clear handle on them. Suffice to say that Essential still has nothing to tell us on voting intention.
In other findings, 49% said they wanted the opposition to fall in behind the government’s decisions while 33% preferred that it review and challenge them, and 42% now consider themselves likely to catch the virus, up from 31% on a fortnight ago. Seventy-two per cent reported washing their hands more often, 60% said they were avoiding social gatherings, and 33% reported stocking up on groceries.
We also have a Roy Morgan SMS survey of 723 respondents, which was both conducted and published yesterday, showing 79% support for the government’s decision to allow those in financial difficulty to access $20,000 of their superannuation. As noted in the previous post, an earlier such poll of 974 respondents from Wednesday and Thursday recorded levels of trust in various Australian politicians (plus Jacinda Ardern, who fared best of all); a further set of results from the same poll finds Dick Smith, Mike Cannon-Brookes, Andrew Forrest and Alan Joyce rating best out of designated list of business leaders, with Rupert Murdoch, Clive Palmer, Gina Rinehart and Gerry Harvey performed worst. We are yet to receive hard numbers from either set of questions, but they are apparently forthcoming.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.
Melbourne exhibition centre being turned into morgue with large deaths expected in May according to the Age.
As Queensland begins to police border quarantine rules, four LNP politicians — George Christensen, Philip Thompson, Michelle Landry and Matt Canavan — have written to Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk asking her to consider “shutting North Queensland’s borders” with the standard exceptions for essential services.
“BK says: Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:58 am
Will Morrison front questions at a presser today I wonder.”
But, but, that would cut into his pontificating and overblown blusering talk time. Besides, a journo might ask relevant questions for which he has no answers.
I imagine there are people in ‘North Queensland’ who wouldn’t want to be cooped up with those 4, for an extended period of time, with no way out.
Why am I not surprised that the quickly rushed out test kits from China are dodge?
lizzie says: Friday, March 27, 2020 at 8:39 am,
“Many of them already have the shaved baldy look.”
Just for a second I thought, “Cash would look hilarious with a shaved baldy look.” Then realised that she would not just scare the crap out not just ordinary people but would frighten the hell out even the most hardened criminals.
a r says: Friday, March 27, 2020 at 9:28 am
sprocket_ @ #2085 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 6:45 am
And we have a new leader!
******************************************************************************
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
As the new world Corona champs, I for one am tired of all the winning.
Holdenhillbilly @ #2801 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 8:44 am
As long as it’s both ways. 😉
MB – agree on the hotel thing. I’m a bit surprised that hasn’t been done.
From a WA perspective, the federal government has gone missing on cruise ships. We’re having to let one dock to get a serious (non Covid19) case off. As far as I’m aware, the federal government has done nothing.
Everyone else is going to be kept aboard. Hopefully they don’t try to drop people off.
Take 2.
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol
Our supposed Gummint have a lot to learn.
Here’s how to a proper job 👇👇👇
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/trump-keeps-touting-an-unproven-coronavirus-treatment-its-now-being-tested-thousands-new-york/
One day, real soon now, I am expecting an all encompassing App with all the information one could possible require regarding the medical crisis. The centrepiece will be, of course, details of how to donate to the Liberal Party.
Just outside a few minutes ago, contemplating pot plant watering requirements and wearing my hearing aid, I heard a lady calling and lo, a lady, walking her beautiful little scotty dog, waved and I went to greet her. By mutual agreement we spoke at a range of about 3 plus metres. The hearing aid is now essential as otherwise I cannot hear and be at an appropriate distance. ☮☕
Handy hint – discovered after much fiddling and abusive language. To get the best results from a hearing aid – turn the damned thing on. 👂😇
Are these the “You Beaut” rapid tests we have heard about being used here? Another “Not happy Jan” customer…………….
——————————————
80% of Rapid COVID-19 Tests the Czech Republic Bought From China are Wrong
Prague Morning
BY PRAGUE MORNING
MARCH 26, 2020
https://www.praguemorning.cz/80-of-rapid-covid-19-tests-the-czech-republic-bought-from-china-are-wrong/
He can be Sandy. Just dont call him Polly.
Life saving face mask….
pH_Red, that broke the giggle barrier.
A hairless Michaelia Cash would kill the Coronavirus. Stone dead. In seconds.
poroti @ #2811 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 9:59 am
I bet the Chinese still enforce payment of the bill. 😐
C@tmomma @ #2804 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 6:49 am
Would you be surprised if they came from another Country?
A lot of us on PB love dancing with numbers. But I want to jump in with a non-mathematical perspective on the c19 numbers. IMO The charts and analyses aren’t predictive, in the sense of being a “crystal ball”, not least because we are only doing limited testing. The projections say, “If we continue on this path then we will reach this value.” They reflect the past and allow us to ask, “Did we do better or worse?” (Although analyses of confidence intervals add objectivity and rigour by answering “How likely is it that what we saw was a random fluctuation?”)
poroti
lizzie
Australia does have a plan, on paper in any case. The problem appears to be that while we do have a plan our “leaders” are unaware of it or worse, unwilling to use it. Cormann is going to regret those words, “Vibble Vobble.”
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/7A38C92C483C8B77CA25805E001A402D/$File/CDPLAN.pdf
“But I want to jump in with a non-mathematical perspective on the c19 numbers. IMO The charts and analyses aren’t predictive”
Absolutely. But they do show if actions are having any effect, as you say.
It also distracts some of us, so there’s that.
Or the slowly rolled out NBN network in Australia.
LR
[ IMO The charts and analyses aren’t predictive, in the sense of being a “crystal ball”, not least because we are only doing limited testing].
Yes although I think limited testing is just a value judgment made more uncertain if reports of dodgy tests is right.
The key unknown, in NSW, is how community transmission will counterweigh, swamp etc the flushing through of the o/s, fucken ships cases
Manly boulevard this morning, heart of Abbott country..
LR
You can’t control something you can’t measure.
The problem with trying to model options is you get seriously depressed.
The Liberal party has truly stuffed this up.
They have put us in a position where there are only bad options.
They have committed us to months of pain and there is no turning back.
The increases in the last four days in Victoria have been 56,55,54,54. Odds of that?
The quickly rolled out Big Battery in Jamestown SA on the other hand is a shining success. And now 50% bigger.
Having just gone through the fine print of the myriad of battery schemes on offer in SA (not possible without a complicated spreadsheet and the assistance of a bottle of whisky) one really wonders why governments arent doing more of this utility scale construction. Surely it is more cost efficient and effective and equitable.
“Shellbellsays:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 10:26 am
The increases in the last four days in Victoria have been 56,55,54,54. Odds of that?”
I’m not a good enough bookie to calculate the odds of that being a random event, bit it’s starting to look like a positive trend.
The first casualty in war is truth..
“Donald Trump said he will speak by phone with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Thursday as the US overtook China as the country with the most coronavirus cases.
With 82,404 cases of infection, the US has now surpassed virus hotspots China and Italy, according to a tracker run by Johns Hopkins University.
However Trump cast doubt on this in a press conference, saying: “You don’t know what the numbers are in China.”
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2816 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 10:13 am
Yes.
No other country, except for maybe America, has the economies of scale of production that China does. Or the ability to rapidly order a company to tool up a production line. Or, in other words, other countries who might be capable of producing test kits are democracies, or have shut down the manufacturing capabilities and outsourced them…to China.
Done properly, there is nothing wrong with walking side by side, 2 metres apart. People need exercise. People need fresh air.
Sure, for a 2 week full shutdown you could go full on so peeps get the message. But in the mid term, walking in the great outdoors with care is a great way to stay healthy and add a little socialising.
I was scratching my head at the closure of some national parks and camping grounds. I now understand it is about toilets. Fair enough (although it has wrecked a long planned easter camping trip). It would be good if something could be done about that so people can get out in nature safely.
Shellbell @ #1496 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 9:26 am
100%. You collapsed the wave function when you made those observations.
Scotty from Marketing’s tagline (borrowed from a movie): “I don’t know I’m making this up as I go.”
C@tmomma says: Friday, March 27, 2020 at 10:29 am.
Don’t be surprised when everyone’s favourite guardian of justice for some rears his head later and starts with the accusations of racism.
That’s actually a negative trend for Vic, given that these things should be measured as growth %s rather than absolute movements. That’s a lower total growth rate each consecutive day.
There is so much in this. The reduced ability in the ‘West’ to actually produce something other than profit. There are exceptions. However, the way government has become nothing more than paper shuffling and numbers dithering instead of action where the market is not capable of acting (or failing or dysfunctional or less efficient or inequitable) drives me spare.
Simon Katich says: Friday, March 27, 2020 at 10:06 am
“He can be Sandy. Just dont call him Polly.”
Or Shirley.
“Wayfarersays:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 10:38 am
That’s actually a negative trend for Vic”
Yes. Sorry, I meant positive trend as “good trend”, not increasing.
🙂
I am in Meher Baba’s camp about spending the money to quarantine people and let everyone else live as normal. South Korea did it.
Not only is it effective and less damaging to the economy. It means we don’t accept authoritarian style lock down of everyone having to stay in their home.
We must be careful not to throw out all individual rights in the new collective community we are living in.
That’s part of the whole hairdresser thing. If people feel good they are less likely to rebel against authority.
LR
Agree entirely. What I would say is that there are two different errors that are present in the testing. For overseas cases and their arrivals, it seems that there aren’t a lot of extra cases that have been missed, a low error rate that we can detect with the lag time between cases and deaths.
For cases of unknown transmission or community transfer, we don’t really know how effective the testing has been as those cases have been identified later than the overseas cases, quite possibly later in the course of the disease and definitely without asymptomatic carriers.
The concern is that the second error will overwhelm the first error quite quickly, and decisions are made on less reliable data.
Also, as testing ramps up and I assume the qPCR machines are 384-well plate, you’ll get a few blips where the more experienced lab staff run an extra plate or a new machine goes online. For instance, an old colleague of mine in the UK had their qPCR machine taken by the Army!
Finally, just a word on how long a lockdown may last. One question that presents itself is this, would a shutdown be the same length of time regardless of the number of cases when the shutdown was initiated? I would think this is dependent on the variance in the time that a person is infectious, which rather complicates the matter.
SK,
I was really, really looking forward to Australia starting up an Electric Car Manufacturing Industry, among other forward-leaning manufactures, under a federal Labor government. Alas, it’s not to be.
poroti @ #2799 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 8:43 am
Hmmm, does this partly explain the leveling off of confirmed cases in China?
Or late for dinner.
NathanA
If the lock down is 100% successful no. But there will be failures. The more initially infected the larger the number of failures.
The longer the differing the more chance of failure, the longer the time needed.
The dithering is only adding to the cost. NZ has taken the cheapest option.
NSW and, in particular, still seem to be simply itching to move to total lockdown, even though the curve of daily new infections is continuing to flatten slightly in both states.
NSW might have some sort of argument for this given that 3/4 of their new cases are recorded as having “no known cause of infection”: although I’d like more detail on how much confidence the authorities place in people’s own reports of their movements: eg, it’s quite possible that a lot of the community infection is coming from people who aren’t abiding by requirements to home quarantine, and whose friends and families are understandably refusing to dob them in.
Victoria is consistently reporting a relatively low rate of daily new infections: at the current rate, they might soon fall behind Queensland, despite having around 1.3 times Queensland’s population. I can’t see a really strong case for Victoria battening down the hatches right now other than Ardern’s “Italy once had only 200 cases.”
But Andrews – urgent on by the Victorian Chief Medical Officer, who I personally find rather less impressive than his counterparts in the other states – seems determined to be the tough guy in this Federal-State battle.
It’s a bit early yet, maybe, but this teared me up a bit –
the Hebrew slaves chorus from Verdi’s Nabucco (Nebuchadnezzar) is pretty well known and can get a bit fatigued, but in a tribute to health care workers in Italy, this lament on suffering, and loss, and exile, infused with hope (Va, pensiero – Go, thought, on golden wings) is performed remotely on mobiles by the International Opera Choir, and I found it very moving.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VubAWDQ3gco&fbclid=IwAR3eQmQxOZ7yUFLyTxED-Nv9vcUkMXLHCReqKdhorc6zul1_Y3U9vYigB9I
a r @ #2831 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 9:35 am
OH NO. Is the cat dead?
frednk: “NZ has taken the cheapest option.”
It depends on what you mean by “cheapest”. If, as I strongly suspect, it ends up going on for many months, it will be totally devastating for their economy and the fiscal position of their government.
KayJay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcliR8kAbzc
The Spanish article refers to the rapid PCR test. Australia has bought the rapid IgG/IgM antibody test currently being assessed for its sensitivity and specificity by the Doherty Institute and ? others.
Of more interest is the TGA approval of the Cepheid rapid SARS-Cov2 test which can be done in 45 minutes as opposed to the Roche 6800 assay which can do 96 tests in 3 hours.
The testing is performed on a Genexpert POCT instruments which are already in many hospitals across Australia. We have used Genexperts for rapid flu testing over several years and are very effective in cohorting patients.
https://www.cepheid.com/coronavirus
Right now, in their lonely, ascetic rooms somewhere, PB’s resident Racism Inquisitors are donning their formal robes as they prepare to tackle today’s outbreaks of bigotry and Ugly-Australianism.
● C@tmomma, unfortunately for her, mentioned that “quicky” C19 test kits used in Spain – which don’t work – were made by a “Chinese” company. Did everyone in China make these kits? No! So that’s racism.
Penalty: 50 lashes and 100 years in Purgatory for C@tmomma. Next time Zoidy won’t be so lenient.
● Did someone mention that “America” now leads to world in virus cases? Shame on them! This is clearly blaming all Americans for the illnesses of a few. So typical of the vicious prejudices around this blog.
Penalty: All plenary indulgences and self-flagellation privileges are hereby cancelled, by order of Astrobleme. This applies even if you only thought it was funny, and didn’t actually say anything. You know who you are.
● Articles in the SMH over the last couple of days have reported that at least two “Chinese” property companies in Australia have instructed staff to stop their normal work of building and developing shopping centres and office towers, and instead to devote all their time and energy to sourcing emergency medical supplies for shipment to Wuhan.
This is clearly racist on several counts: references to the corporate ownership of the companies, their staff, the unprovable implication that Wuhan has anything at all to do with the virus’ origin, and the nasty little insinuation that the 150 tonnes of gowns, masks, hand sanitizer, disposable gloves, caps and other accoutrements of infectious disease control have exacerbated the critical shortage of such things here in Australia, right now, in the middle of our own virus-crisus.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/second-developer-flies-82-tonnes-of-medical-supplies-to-china-20200326-p54e8n.html
Penalty: 500 lashes to all staff of the SMH, and its Editor to be forced to read all of Zoidy and Astro’s posts since March 1, until he or she can recite them by heart, in Mandarin.
● You’d think a Jew like Josh Frydenberg would be sensitive to blatantly racist talk, after all he’s gone through lately. But you be wrong.
Today, Josh is reported to be “privately” expressing concern that “Chinese” (that disgusting epithet again) companies (among others, but who cares about others?) might be looking to profit by buying up distressed Australian companies while their stock prices are low, due to a virus outbreak that started in China! (Yes, in the SMH again). This is despite “China” [Note: authorized use of the word because it puts all of China in a good light] sending medical supplies and C19 experts to Italy and Turkey and stuff.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-investment-board-braces-for-chinese-takeovers-of-distressed-australian-assets-20200326-p54e3z.html
Penalty: no bagels for Josh until a vaccine is discovered.
Phew! This racism spotting is exhausting! Now, if yoyse’ll excuse me, I’m off to burn myself at the stake.