Pestilential as anything

Democracy battles on in the face of adversity in Queensland and (at least for now) Tasmania, as a poll finds most Australians believe the media is exaggerating the crisis (at least for now).

The campaigns for Queensland’s local government elections and Currumbin and Bundamaba state by-elections next Saturday are proceeding in the most trying of circumstances. My guides to the by-elections can be found on the sidebar; I’ll find something to say about the Brisbane City Council elections, which I have thus far neglected entirely, later this week. Updates:

• The Electoral Commission of Queensland relates that 560,000 postal vote applications have been received for the statewide local government elections, which compares with 260,680 postal votes cast at the previous elections in 2016. However, not all applications will result in completed votes being returned – the conversion rate in Queensland at last year’s federal election was 86.0%. There have also been more than 500,000 pre-poll votes, exceeding the 435,828 cast in 2016 with a week left to go. To those understandably reluctant to turn out on so-called polling day next Saturday, the commission has been expanding opening hours at pre-poll booths. All of which will make the results that come in on Saturday night particularly hard to follow.

• A ban has been imposed on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards and canvassing for votes at polling booths. Booth supervisors may allow the material to be displayed at the booths “in a manner deemed appropriate”.

Elsewhere:

• An international poll by Ipsos on attitudes to coronavirus finds 34% of Australians strongly agree, and 35% somewhat agree, with closing borders until the virus “is proved to be contained”, which is about average among the twelve nations surveyed. The survey has been conducted over four waves going back to early February, in which time the number of respondents identifying a very high or high threat to them personally has risen from around 10% to 23%. However, Australians recorded among the highest response in favour of the proposition that the media was exaggerating about the virus, which actually increased over the past fortnight from the high forties to 58%. A notable outlier in respect of all questions is Italy, where only 29% now say the media is exaggerating the threat, slumping from around 80%.

• Tasmanian Attorney-General Elise Archer announced this week that May 2 elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevears are “safe to proceed”, with “significant measures being put in place to maintain public safety”.

• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 974 respondents asked whether respondents trusted or distrusted a list of current and former politicians that included Jacinda Ardern, but was apparently otherwise entirely Australian. All we are given at this stage is a top ten list of the best net performers, which is headed by Jacinda Ardern and otherwise notable for not including a single male conservative. However, this is all pretty useless without hard numbers, which will apparently be forthcoming “in coming days”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,185 comments on “Pestilential as anything”

Comments Page 3 of 44
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  4. What about an advertising campaign fronted by Ita for the oldies and someone appropriate for younger age groups.
    Trust is the big issue at this time.

  5. Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    ·
    41s
    I had forgotten how clear it was in that Morrison speech that keeping schools open is based wholly on economic impacts and definitely not on child health. Clip of Albanese explaining that Norway has shut schools and created support for essential workers #Insiders

  7. From The Grauniad live blog:

    Hundreds of people have ignored authorities and flocked to a famous Sydney beach despite it being closed to slow the spread of the coronavirus outbreak.

    NSW Police Minister David Elliott says about 450 people who showed up at Bondi Beach on Sunday morning will be told to leave.

    “We are not doing this because we are the fun police. We don’t close these public spaces because we want to punish people,” he told Channel 7.

    “Some people are just stupid and want to take the risk. Some people think they are above the law.”

  9. Danama papers

    And some people think they are special and they are not responsible for what happens to others.
    As long as they are okay. All good.

  10. Two of the 2700 on the Ruby Princess cruise ship took a commercial flight back to Perth and one of them has now tested positive to Covid-19.

    Brad Hazzard should resign forthwith for his monumental incompetence.

  11. Confessions @ #108 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 6:43 am

    lizzie:

    Who is he? I assume he’s a journalist.

    https://www.abc.net.au/profiles/content/s1888068.htm

    Rafael Epstein is one of the ABC’s best-credentialled journalists.

    An ABC journalist for more than 10 years, he reported for TV news and Radio Current Affairs in Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne.

    Rafael spent several months reporting in Darwin and East Timor in 1999 during the independence vote and he was assigned to Jakarta to augment the ABC’s comprehensive coverage of the Asian tsunami.

    A skilled investigative reporter, his ground-breaking coverage of intelligence issues and police corruption in Victoria won him a Walkley Award in 2004.

    He was appointed Europe correspondent in early 2005, returning home in late 2008 and winning his second Walkley for his work on the bungled Mohammed Hanif case.

    Having left to work on The Age’s investigative journalism unit, Rafael returned to the ABC in 2012 to host the Drive program on 774 ABC Melbourne.

  13. Fess

    No, he’s a presenter on Melbourne afternoon radio. I once read his bio and he has had huge experience abroad as well as in Oz. Very intelligent man, not afraid to question (I don’t currently hear him).

    I notice his body language says he’s not part of the in-group of panellists.

  14. Norman Swan: ‘Why should people trust me? That’s a very good question’

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/norman-swan-why-should-people-trust-me-that-s-a-very-good-question-20200320-p54cda.html

    The government has been criticised for inconsistent messages because its advice is changing on a near-daily basis. However, Dr Swan has also emphasised different points at different times.

    He has called for schools to be closed to slow the spread of the virus. But on Wednesday night he told The Sun-Herald: “We’ve got rapid growth [of COVID-19 cases] in NSW … but it’s off low numbers so I can understand why they don’t shut the schools. Because it’s an enormous decision.”

    On Friday he told podcast listeners if he had school-age children he would keep sending them to school. “If and when the authorities decide to shut down schools, that’s when you keep your kid at home,” he said. “At the moment, your child is not going to be saved from very much of anything by staying at home.”
    :::
    Professor Julie Leask, an expert in public health and risk communication at the University of Sydney nursing school, said Dr Swan’s contributions filled a void because the official messages had been “a little bit wanting in some ways”.

    “Clearly, he’s filling a gap there for people,” Professor Leask said.

    “However, I think any second-layer commentator needs to be also respecting that there is strong expertise in a field where you can get qualifications and get experience over many years that is informing our management strategies, and there needs to be some respect for that.

    “Not this sort of … external policy advice that is made without the full information.

  15. ‘Aqualung says:
    Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:38 am

    What about an advertising campaign fronted by Ita for the oldies and someone appropriate for younger age groups.
    Trust is the big issue at this time.’

    ‘Trust me, I’m from the Coalition Government.’

    The Coalition has spent 30 years dissing climate science and climate experts. It has spent 30 years promoting climate rubbish feelpinions. It deliberately created fake lines of climate ‘debate’. Any rubbish would do. It has spent 30 years trying to create and politically mobilize irrational fear. It has habitually blamed its social victims du jour. It has habitually created social divisions as a means to power. It has habitually used shock jocks to promote their power – the shock jocks who routinely fuck rational thought in favour of tendentious crap. It has habitually kept hidden all sorts of nasties. It has suborned the APS into facile compliance. It has gutted the capacity of the AFP to act independently.

    It is now trying to engender trust in expertise. It is urging people not to do feelpinions. It is trying to create unity of purpose. It is also trying to create hope.

  16. Good that Murphy highlights the point that loss of trust in Govt and Media is very damaging when what society needs most of all is the truth.

  18. Savva always has the Liberal insider goss. She explains there are significant tensions inside the govt about school closures.

  20. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:47 am

    Savva always has the Liberal insider goss. She explains there are significant tensions inside the govt about school closures.’

    This essentially gives the lie to the notion that Morrison is ‘following’ the best medical advice.

  22. Term 1 ends this week in Victoria
    Dont know about other states.
    One possible outcome is that schools finish off the term and are asked not to return after the holidays.

  24. Boerwar:

    And no wonder people are either not listening to Scotty, or are not believing anything that comes out of his mouth.

  25. Fess

    I dont listen to Raf Epstein much these days on ABC radio, but he is usually a very considered and calm character.

  26. Michelle Grattan – Government’s new $66 billion package will take coronavirus economic life support to $189 billion

    https://theconversation.com/governments-new-66-billion-package-will-take-coronavirus-economic-life-support-to-189-billion-134331

    With the Australian COVID-19 tally of cases above 1000, the government is already flagging there will need to be a third package as the economy spirals down in the wake of the sweeping measures to try to contain the virus’s spread. The restrictions are expected to become tougher in coming days and weeks.

  28. Vic:

    He’s been a good addition to the panel today. Apart from anything else he doesn’t speak like a drone like most other journalists do.

  30. Mark Kenny
    @markgkenny
    ·
    15m
    It is a sign of national immaturity & no small degree of selfishness, that so many Australians r treating the COVID-19 threat so blithely. They are inviting authorities to make restrictions mandatory by refusing to act of their own volition. Stop bleating about mixed messages.

  31. I watched Dan Andrews presser with Tim Pallas yesterday.
    I felt reassured that they are doing what is required.
    He was asked about the federal govt.
    He said Wtte that he cant speak to what they will be announcing, as it will be up to the PM.
    But he has been very pleased that the national cabinet has been very productive and he was confident as to what the govt will be doing in terms of the economy and public health.

  32. It perhaps is an insurmountable hurdle Boerwar. Probably greater than 40% of voters don’t trust Morrison and it’s all his own work.

  33. One of the big things pushed by Labor for the NBN, the proper one, was the opportunities it opened up for tele-medicine . Especially for people in remote areas. Could our Turnbull-Abbott economic crime NBN handle this……in fttp NZ ?
    ————————————–
    “GPs asked to do 70 per cent of consults online to protect against Covid-19

    ……………….illnesses can be diagnosed through a secure video conference system.It’s possible for a number of people to take part in videoconferences, including members of a patient’s whānau.*
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12318785
    * family

  38. Perhaps Mark Kenny should look in the mirror and ask why people do not trust what they are told by people like him and the pollies he swans about with ?

  39. Raf gets angry texts all the time during his interviews because he will ask the lnp question to the Labor politician and vice versa to elicit an answer from them. The funniest bit of radio on 774 last year was when John Faine did all the IPA talking lines as there was no LNP/IPA rep so John moved his seat waaay to the right and took the piss. Liberty Sanger was amazed at how convincing Faine could sound if he shut off his brain and regurged their talking points and policies…

  40. Insiders not bad today. Chalmers presents well and had reasonable things to say. And had two of my favorite women in politics, Amy Remikis and Tanya P. 🙂 Although i thin she was pushing it with the Whatsiname singing Elvis. ?? 🙁

  42. I continue to be confident that anti viral meds may be effective soon, as we wait for the vaccine.

    And my hope is that the people will have sufficiently awoken in the meantime, to respect expert advice.
    Getting their information from any stranger on Facebook or Twitter is not the way to go.

  43. ————
    Do you know what the criteria are for testing in SA? They’re certainly doing much better than other States…
    ————
    Someone has already posted the official criteria. Anecdotally… some people who have not had contact with OS people but with symptoms that clearly match the disease and very unwell but not to the point of hospitalisation are being offered a test. Sometimes. One person I know was refused one day, pushed, and offered test a couple of day’s later BUT told their test results would take up to 2 weeks and that they would have to fully isolate in the interim.

    I read was that SA had a very good stockpile of serum (or whatever it was that NSW was low on).

    And thanks Dio on the background on Spurrier. You have mentioned before you hold her in high regard. I do caution tho that all too often these PS’s seem to walk a fine line between honest and full information and trying to spin information based on whatever the prevailing overarching mood coming from the meetings they have with government and other advisers. If the mood is ‘keep the punters calm’ then the information is skewed in that direction. That may be honourable, but doesn’t stop us reading between her lines.

  45. so, is this feckless government permitting, indeed encouraging folk to raid their super nest egg to get them through?

  46. Paul Karp
    @Paul_Karp
    ·
    19m
    If NSW wants to shut its schools they should just do it. Why is every jurisdiction locking themself in to a uniform position thru national cabinet? Let’s get some competitive federalism going. Know better? Do better.

  47. 60 minutes will be speaking to the UQ on tonight’s show

    Pete EVANS Retweeted
    Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @911CORLEBRA777

    @thespybrief
    and 2 others
    Yes, it’s good that this drug combo will be studied in a well-designed clinical trial to determine whether it actually has efficacy against the #coronavirus.
    Pete EVANS
    @911CORLEBRA777
    ·
    4h
    This made news today here in Australia
    @DrDenaGrayson
    . They’re going to try using an anti-malarial drug combined with HIV antiretroviral drug lopinavir / ritonavir

    cc
    @thespybrief

    @LouiseMensch

    @ericgarland
    Quote Tweet

    UQ News
    @UQ_News
    · 18h
    Queensland researchers are set to begin clinical trials of a potential treatment for COVID-19 – using two existing drugs Clapping hands signCollision symbol

    Huge congratulations to @davidantibiotic and his team!

    Read more: http://bit.ly/3b8MoLT

    @UQMedicine @RBWHFoundation

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