Pestilential as anything

Democracy battles on in the face of adversity in Queensland and (at least for now) Tasmania, as a poll finds most Australians believe the media is exaggerating the crisis (at least for now).

The campaigns for Queensland’s local government elections and Currumbin and Bundamaba state by-elections next Saturday are proceeding in the most trying of circumstances. My guides to the by-elections can be found on the sidebar; I’ll find something to say about the Brisbane City Council elections, which I have thus far neglected entirely, later this week. Updates:

• The Electoral Commission of Queensland relates that 560,000 postal vote applications have been received for the statewide local government elections, which compares with 260,680 postal votes cast at the previous elections in 2016. However, not all applications will result in completed votes being returned – the conversion rate in Queensland at last year’s federal election was 86.0%. There have also been more than 500,000 pre-poll votes, exceeding the 435,828 cast in 2016 with a week left to go. To those understandably reluctant to turn out on so-called polling day next Saturday, the commission has been expanding opening hours at pre-poll booths. All of which will make the results that come in on Saturday night particularly hard to follow.

• A ban has been imposed on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards and canvassing for votes at polling booths. Booth supervisors may allow the material to be displayed at the booths “in a manner deemed appropriate”.

Elsewhere:

• An international poll by Ipsos on attitudes to coronavirus finds 34% of Australians strongly agree, and 35% somewhat agree, with closing borders until the virus “is proved to be contained”, which is about average among the twelve nations surveyed. The survey has been conducted over four waves going back to early February, in which time the number of respondents identifying a very high or high threat to them personally has risen from around 10% to 23%. However, Australians recorded among the highest response in favour of the proposition that the media was exaggerating about the virus, which actually increased over the past fortnight from the high forties to 58%. A notable outlier in respect of all questions is Italy, where only 29% now say the media is exaggerating the threat, slumping from around 80%.

• Tasmanian Attorney-General Elise Archer announced this week that May 2 elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevears are “safe to proceed”, with “significant measures being put in place to maintain public safety”.

• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 974 respondents asked whether respondents trusted or distrusted a list of current and former politicians that included Jacinda Ardern, but was apparently otherwise entirely Australian. All we are given at this stage is a top ten list of the best net performers, which is headed by Jacinda Ardern and otherwise notable for not including a single male conservative. However, this is all pretty useless without hard numbers, which will apparently be forthcoming “in coming days”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,185 comments on “Pestilential as anything”

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  1. Boerwar @ #120 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 8:48 am

    ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 9:47 am

    Savva always has the Liberal insider goss. She explains there are significant tensions inside the govt about school closures.’

    This essentially gives the lie to the notion that Morrison is ‘following’ the best medical advice.

    And there’s tension in the govt about climate change. Doesn’t necessarily mean that either faction is following best scientific advice.

  2. lizzie

    Actually I never thought he was too bad. Well in comparison to his cousin at least 🙂 However for his (former) profession it stands. They are just lackeys hired to do a job for meeja owners like Rupert but stuff ’em they ‘volunteer’ for the job.

  3. Nikki’s comments about the cabinet points to why Albo hasn’t been invited to join is because Scotty from marketing wouldn’t want Albo to learn what a freak show the cabinet has become and the reactionaries would go nuts.

  4. Earlier this morning William referenced an article in “The West” which was paywalled.

    Fortunately the article was picked up by a reputable UK newspaper ¡🙃 (sarcasm).

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8137735/WA-health-officer-tells-Aussies-hit-town-Queensland-Premier-told-revellers-not-to.html#comments

    To pub or not to pub? Health officer tells Aussies they SHOULD hit the town for a few beers – after officials urged people to stay at home because of coronavirus

    WA’s chief medical officer told people to ‘live their lives as normal’ this weekend
    QLD Premier Anastacia Palaszczuk, however, said people should ‘not go to pub’
    Scott Morrison announced venue patron limits and social distancing measures
    Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?

    Western Australia’s chief health officer has told people they should visit cafes and pubs despite coronavirus safety restrictions.

    Dr Andrew Robertson said that people should be living their lives normally as that ‘keeps society functioning’ despite Queensland’s premier giving the exact opposite advice on Friday.

    Dr Robertson told The West Australian that as long as restrictions about the number of people allowed in venues is followed, then he would ‘strongly encourage’ people to support local businesses.

    ‘They should be going to cafes, they should be going to the supermarket, If they’re involved in community sport, they should be doing all of those things. Going to the pub if they want to,’ he said.

    Queensland’s Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, however, told residents in her state they should stay indoors —-and much more.

    Worth a look. 😎

  5. Inline with the topic I voted in the Qld Local council elections yesterday as there is no way I’m going anywhere near crowded voting booths next week.
    Thankfully I knew who I was going to vote for in my ward and was able to find his HTV taped to the table in front of the voting booths.
    Unfortunately I only knew who I wasn’t going to vote for Mayor (as if anyone would vote for Adrian Raedel for mayor while suspended as a councillor pending a corruption enquiry) which left me in a position of having no one to talk to about each of the other 4 candidates and there were no Mayoral HTVs. I spent 10 minutes at the booth using google and eventually settled on an independent campaigning on anti-corruption.
    What makes it harder is none of the candidates had the usual colour coding (Red, Blue etc), seemed to be yellow & purple.

  6. I’m imagining Scomo’s cabinet all sitting around mouthing the same words. One speaks out of turn and Scomo gets personal.

  7. @jockie_c
    ·
    15h

    My daughter is in quarantine, her employer won’t allow her back to her home on Hamilton island. Hamilton are standing down 900 of their 1200 workforce with out pay. Any stories like that on msm news?

  8. It’s Time @ #102 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 9:36 am

    Yes, a worthwhile read, especially for P1.

    Why? You mean this bit?

    But surely even a moderate effect on infections means closing schools and businesses down is better than not doing so at all? The answer to this can also depend on your value systems. For some, economic considerations are important because of the devastation that occurs when people are in long-term unemployment and lose their homes and livelihood. Others are willing to brace for widespread economic harm and close every business and school right away for months on end, if it means even a small amount of infection and death is prevented. Others will say economic and health impacts are inextricably linked, and it’s too hard to separate the two out so simplistically.

    Since we are extremely likely to go into lockdown within weeks, the issue of whether or not to close schools now rather than later is a purely economic decision, not a medical one. And, as I said before – some people are quite willing to trade lives for money.

    Are you one of them?

  9. The Guardian

    Jim Chalmers was also asked about the issue of closing schools, which has been one of the most contentious issues in managing Australia’s response to the outbreak.

    The argument against closing the schools, as articulated by prime minister Scott Morrison, is that any measure undertaken today would have to be continued for at least six months and, at this stage, the advice of the national health advisors is it is not necessary.

    At this stage no state has declared it would close public schools, but in Victoria public schools have been told to “consolidate their preparations” for a total shutdown.

    Six months is optimistic – a market-ready vaccine is at least 18 months away, and it’s possible any measures to suppress the virus spread would need to be in place until there was widespread inoculation.

    Chalmers said the issue was front of mind for him, but he did not give a view on whether schools should close. He said that, like many families, he and his wife relied on grandparents to help with childcare.

    We did a bit of a trial of what that looks like without my mum last week for a few days, and it was mayhem, like it would be in a lot of households as we try to make it work.

    We’re going to separate my kids from their nan for a while, which is very hard on the kids, and very hard on nan as well, but like a lot of families, we’re just trying to do what we can here to do the right thing by each other and by the community more broadly, and everybody is making those sorts of decisions right now.

  10. An example of a cohort who never bother with “the news”?

    Well, about 450 people showed up up at Bondi this morning, despite it being temporarily closed.

    Guardian photographer Jessica Hromas watched rangers turning people away.

  11. This is the government of promises and not deeds. They’ll never hesitate to hesitate.

    Meanwhile, on Sky News, finance minister Mathias Cormann said the government “won’t hesitate” to lock down areas of the country to curb the spread of coronavirus, if that is what the medical experts recommend.

  12. Lizzie:


    Loss of sense of smell as marker of COVID-19 infectionYou are hereHome / Loss of sense of smell as marker of COVID-19 infection

    March 21st, 2020 by admininCOVID-19

    Post-viral anosmia is one of the leading causes of loss of sense of smell in adults, accounting for up to 40% cases of anosmia. Viruses that give rise to the common cold are well known to cause post-infectious loss, and over 200 different viruses are known to cause upper respiratory tract infections. Previously described coronaviruses are thought to account for 10-15% cases. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that the novel COVID-19 virus would also cause anosmia in infected patients.

    There is already good evidence from South Korea, China and Italy that significant numbers of patients with proven COVID-19 infection have developed anosmia/hyposmia. In Germany it is reported that more than 2 in 3 confirmed cases have anosmia. In South Korea, where testing has been more widespread, 30% of patients testing positive have had anosmia as their major presenting symptom in otherwise mild cases.

    In addition, there have been a rapidly growing number of reports of a significant increase in the number of patients presenting with anosmia in the absence of other symptoms – this has been widely shared on medical discussion boards by surgeons from all regions managing a high incidence of cases. Iran has reported a sudden increase in cases of isolated anosmia, and many colleagues from the US, France and Northern Italy have the same experience. I have personally seen four patients this week, all under 40, and otherwise asymptomatic except for the recent onset of anosmia – I usually see roughly no more than one a month. I think these patients may be some of the hitherto hidden carriers that have facilitated the rapid spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, these patients do not meet current criteria for testing or self-isolation.

    While there is a chance the apparent increase in incidence could merely reflect the attention COVID-19 has attracted in the media, and that such cases may be caused by typical rhinovirus and coronavirus strains, it could potentially be used as a screening tool to help identify otherwise asymptomatic patients, who could then be better instructed on self-isolation.

    Given the potential for COVID-19 to present with anosmia, and the reports that corticosteroid use may increase the severity of infection, we would advise against use of oral steroids in the treatment of new onset anosmia during the pandemic, particularly if it is unrelated to head trauma or nasal pathology (such as nasal polyps).

    There is potential that if any adult with anosmia but no other symptoms was asked to self-isolate for seven days, in addition to the current symptom criteria used to trigger quarantine, we might be able to reduce the number of otherwise asymptomatic individuals who continue to act as vectors, not realising the need to self-isolate. It will also be an important trigger for healthcare personnel to employ full PPE and help to counter the higher rates of infection found amongst ENT surgeons compared to other healthcare workers.

    Yours sincerely,

    Prof Claire Hopkins, BMBCh, MA FRCS(ORLHNS) DM(Oxon)

    President of the British Rhinological Society

    Professor of Rhinology, King’s College London

    Consultant ENT Surgeon, Guy’s and St Thomas’ Hospitals

    Prof Nirmal Kumar,

    President of ENT UK

  13. I read yesterday that two companies that have the only stocks of critical chemicals used to manufacture some sterilization products necessary in hospitals effectively shipped almost all of Australia’s supplies two weeks ago in response to effectively being offered 5 x the domestic price by other countries.
    Not sure if this was confected bullshit (like the buses of foreigners buying up small town supplies) or not. Has anyone else here heard about this?

  14. Mexicanbeemer @ #153 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 7:14 am

    Nikki’s comments about the cabinet points to why Albo hasn’t been invited because Scotty from marketing wouldn’t want Albo to learn what a freak show the cabinet has become.

    That’s the whole point of including him.

    It takes decisions away from petty politics and focuses them on the National interest.

  15. Instant test for latent C19 sufferers at the workplace: fart in a lift and see who doesn’t try to pretend they didn’t notice it.

  16. Lizzie
    This morning i heard a report that someone yesterday said that covid-19 doesn’t really effect the eastern suburbs.

  17. Barney
    No doubt that is right and what we would expect from a well run government but this government can’t seem to get over the politics.

  18. Guytaur

    “ guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:29 am
    For those that doubt neo liberalism is dead.

    The world has already in a few days on the stock market lost more money than it would have taken to invest in Health Education and a Universal Basic Income.

    Who is going to pay for it?

    Everyone one way or another.”
    —————

    Of course “neo-liberalism” is dead, …… as a term.

    What makes you think the old gang won’t be back under a new slogan, like “capitalism for all”. Its only a matter of marketing and power.

    In deed, if the current system really collapsed it’s more likely to be replaced by a version of fascism. There is no real “left” any more in our society.

    Wanky “liberals” obsessed with the latest identity wank from the USA are NOT left wing in any meaningful way. They’re just importing the never ending US culture wars.

  19. Player One @ #161 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 10:31 am

    It’s Time @ #102 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 9:36 am

    Yes, a worthwhile read, especially for P1.

    Why? You mean this bit?

    But surely even a moderate effect on infections means closing schools and businesses down is better than not doing so at all? The answer to this can also depend on your value systems. For some, economic considerations are important because of the devastation that occurs when people are in long-term unemployment and lose their homes and livelihood. Others are willing to brace for widespread economic harm and close every business and school right away for months on end, if it means even a small amount of infection and death is prevented. Others will say economic and health impacts are inextricably linked, and it’s too hard to separate the two out so simplistically.

    Since we are extremely likely to go into lockdown within weeks, the issue of whether or not to close schools now rather than later is a purely economic decision, not a medical one. And, as I said before – some people are quite willing to trade lives for money.

    Are you one of them?

    Dulce et decorum est pro partria mori oeconomia?

  20. C@tmomma @ #9 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 7:48 am

    Danama Papers @ #6 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 7:44 am

    Ultra right wing shithead Katie Hopkins, who goes place even the likes of Miranda Devine fear to tread is proposing euthanasia vans for seniors.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jul/28/katie-hopkins-euthanasia-vans-old-people-sun
    No-one should be surprised that she works for The Sun, a Murdoch publication, and that The Sun actually published it?

    Her mum and dad first.

    *sarcalert*

    How ‘old’ is rupert ?

  21. Back from local IGA which opened at 7am (apparently not doing the seniors hour) because word was the supply truck from Perth got in last night. Got there at 7.10am and despite seeing people walking out with 8 packs of toilet paper there was STILL none on the shelves. Ten mins after opening and the shop had been stripped of toilet paper. And one elderly couple I swore I saw walking out of Woollies yesterday with toilet paper were again walking out of IGA with another 8 pack of rolls.

    There was plenty of mince but not much chicken left, despite limits of one pack per customer being in place. No tinned tomatoes, flour, sugar or hand soap, tinned baked beans or spaghetti. All cleaned out. No Spam either which truly is an indication of dire times.

    Over east might be seeing supply being able to keep up with demand, but I’m not seeing any evidence of it here.

  22. “Would anyone go to the dentist at the moment?”

    I did only few days ago to get a tooth filled and must say they were excellent.

  23. Johns Hopkins numbers now have USA third highest, up from 6th on Friday.

    They would mean a lot more if they were per capita.

  24. lizzie @ #182 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 10:56 am

    If you wake up one morning and can’t smell the coffee, you’ll know you’re probably an asymptomatic carrier.

    Since that is a symptom, shouldn’t it be “if you wake up one morning and can still smell the coffee you’ll know you’re possibly an asymptomatic carrier” 🙂

  25. “Over east”. After 32 years of living in WA I still never worked out what that expression meant. It seems that some of them think there is actually such a place.

  26. Anyone agree that it would be helpful to know the main areas of cases? I mean, there’s not much point in the north of a state panicking if most cases are in the south.

  27. Interesting piece in the Guardian blog – “The NSW government has identified another four cruise ships affected by Covid-19 in addition to the Ruby Princess, AAP reported, and is now scrambling to contact thousands of people who were on board ships that visited Sydney in March.”

  28. Any argument that continues to advocate the continuation of children attending schools because the children will miss out on their education ignores a number of truisms.
    Most of a childs education in 2020 emanates from sources outside the classroom.
    Technology will provide the essential links with the teaching community.
    Children are not safe from the virus.
    Schools are the worst possible environment for the virus.
    An honest, informed PM and other leaders would have no hesitation in closing schools if they were not shallow, self-centered political operatives.
    Morrison has a history of obfuscation. Morrison is gambling with Australia’s response to the pandemic. Morrison is digging and the hole becomes deeper.


  29. According to Sam Gorovitz, a professor of philosophy at Syracuse University and member of the taskforce, the revisions to the ventilator allocation guidelines include the formation of designated triage committees to determine which critically ill patients will or will not receive life-supporting respiration.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/21/coronavirus-new-york-disaster-ventilators

    It is a great pity the Morrison government completely screwed up the containment phase.

  30. ———
    If you wake up one morning and can’t smell the coffee, you’ll know you’re probably an asymptomatic carrier.
    ———
    It is life Jim, but not as we know it.

  31. lizzie @ #196 Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 – 11:04 am

    Spray

    Isn’t there some sort of division like, you know, like a desert?

    Ha. Fair point Lizzie. But the expression is commonly used to suggest that everything “over east” is the same. I used to point out that Launceston doesn’t have all that much in common with Cairns, but then I gave up.

  32. I went to the dentist on Wednesday last. The only change was they asked me to gargle with peroxide for a minute before it began.

  33. Anyway of finding out which cruise ships and where they have been?

    KI is anxious as they only stopped cruise ships coming mid last week.

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