I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of coronavirus for the electoral process. For what it’s worth, the New York Times today reports that research finds no evidence that elections act as vectors for disease. Apropos next Saturday’s local government elections and state by-elections in Queensland, my article had this to say:
According to Graeme Orr, University of Queensland law professor and a noted authority on electoral law, it is still within the power of Local Government Minister Stirling Hinchliffe to postpone the council elections. The byelections for the state seats of Currumbin and Bundamba could also theoretically be called off if the speaker rescinded the writs. Since a state election will be held in October in any case, it might well be argued that filling the latter vacancies for a few months is not worth the bother. However, the official position is that neither pre-poll nor election day booths will experience activity amounting to a gathering of more than 500 people, as per the latest advice of the chief medical officer — advice that will surely be showing its age well before next Saturday.
In other by-election news, the Liberal National Party has put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in Currumbin and Bundamba, and thus behind One Nation, a move that has evidently lost its taboo since the issue of One Nation preferences tore the state’s Coalition parties apart around the turn of the century. This could potentially be consequential in Bundamba, where it is conceivable that One Nation could outpoll the LNP and defeat Labor with their preferences.
Elsewhere:
• The Federal Court has dismissed a Section 44 challenge against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s eligibility to sit in parliament on grounds of dual Hungarian citizenship, to which he was allegedly entitled via his Hungarian-born mother. The petitioner, Michael Staindl, initially pointed to Australian documentation suggesting her family arrived in Australia in 1950 with Hungarian passports, having fled the country the previous year as the post-war communist regime tightened its grip. However, it was established that this arose from loose definitions used at the time by the Australian authorities, and that what the family actually had was “a form of single use emigrant exit passport”. This led Staindl to twice reformulate his argument, eventually settling on the contention that Frydenberg’s mother was left with the “shell” of a citizenship that had been emptied only by the communist regime’s arbitrary and capricious “pseudo-law”, a factor that ceased to apply with its demise in 1989. This did not impress the court, which dismissed the petition and ordered Staindl to pay costs.
• The Age/Herald has polling results from Newgate Research on which aspects of coronavirus are of greatest public concern. The results are reasonably consistent across the board, but top of the list is “the overall economic impact”, with which 41% express themselves extremely concerned, 36% quite concerned, 19% slightly concerned and 4% not at all concerned. “Regular health services not being available” produces similar results of 35%, 32%, 25% and 8%. There are slightly more moderate results for other questions on health impacts and “shortages of food, toilet paper and other essentials”, although in all cases the combination for extremely concerned and quite concerned is well above 50%. The poll is an “online tracking study of more than 1000 Australians, taken between Wednesday and Saturday last week”.
• The West Australian ($) also has a WA-only coronavirus poll, which finds 66% supporting cancellation of large sporting events, 45% for night venues, 35% for cinemas and theatres, 34% for gyms and leisure centres, 29% for schools, 28% for universities, 22% for shopping centres and 16% apiece for restaurants and cafes and public transport. Fifty-one per cent of respondents agreed the government had been fully open and honest about the risks and implications of the virus, with 25% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 890.
• The count for the Northern Territory’s Johnston by-election was finalised on Friday, with Labor’s Joel Bowden winning at the final count over Steven Klose of the Territory Alliance by 1731 votes (52.6%) to (47.4%), in the absence of any surprises in the full preference count. With no candidate polling more than 29.9% on the primary vote, the latter was always an abstract possibility, but the result after the previous exclusion was not particularly close, with Bowden on 1275 (38.7%), Klose on 1110 (33.7%) and Greens candidate Aiya Goodrich Carttling on 907 (27.6%). It seems unlikely that preferences would have favoured the Greens even if it had been otherwise. My live results facility now records the final numbers – there will be more where this came from on this site with the Queensland elections on Saturday week, certainly with the state by-elections, and perhaps also for the Brisbane City Council elections, depending on how things go.
Note also two new posts below this one, one dealing with a new poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, the other being Adrian Beaumont’s latest contribution on the Democratic primaries in the United States.
Maybe they didn’t get the memo From Dotard to return home?
BREAKING: @SAHealth has confirmed a group of 18 American tourists has been in isolation in the Barossa.
At least 10 have tested positive to COVID-19.
poroti @ #2656 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 11:26 am
How quickly things change. US cases are now more than double what’s shown there.
OC:
Yes that’s the flaw in those otherwise excellent charts from the Financial Times.
Australia on a (log scale, so still exponential) trajectory below almost all nations (except Japan, Singapore, HK) whilst having stronger testing the almost all nations (same exceptions, plus Korea) has to be a good sign.
Incidentally, I wonder if all those people who use “exponential” for things that are quadratic will be schooled by encountering something that is actually exponential.
‘lizzie says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 3:50 pm
Alastair Nicholson
@alasnich
·
21m
Why isn’t Morrison taking more steps to assist Australians overseas to get home?Qantas obviously has plenty of spare capacity and using it provides more work for staff, contractors etc.
Qantas might do a little charity, perhaps, in return for all that dosh.’
A lot of those Australians overseas took a punt that there was still time to go for a holiday, to suit themselves, to get some skiing in. Whatever.
Embassy staff are risking their lives to get these same peeps home.
The Golden Age of the Post War Grasshoppers has come to a crashing end.
Let the whinging and caterwauling commence.
EGT
All I know about exponential is that there is some sort of numeric link between when the graph goes vertical and when the truly big kaka/fan moment is upon us all.
Carnival’s Diamond Princess fiasco – 6 weeks ago
Carnival’s Grand Princess fiasco – 4 weeks ago
Carnival’s Ruby Princess – 2 weeks ago loading passengers in Sydney, arrives back last Thursday with at least 4 Covid-19 infected passengers
Who is licensing this shonky outfit? Who is allowing this?
If NSW is not going to give us the 11am today figure, the trending will be off
About to have a flu jab at Norwood on Thursday when the pharmacist advised us to wait for a better vaccine which our doctor should have early April.
a r says: Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 3:51 pm
poroti @ #2656 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 11:26 am
How quickly things change. US cases are now more than double what’s shown there.
************************************************************************
4 days ago :
‘It’s going to pop’: Trump predicts the country ‘will be rolling again’ after 15 days
President Donald Trump offered assurances that the worst of the coronavirus might be over by the end of this month.
“Our guidance yesterday urges Americans to take action for 15 days to help stem the outbreak,” Trump said. “So it is a 15-day period.
“It’s going to pop,” he said. “One day, we’ll be standing, possibly, up here, we’ll say, ‘Well, we won,’ and we’re going to say that. Sure as you’re sitting there, we’re going to say that, and we’re going to win, and I think we’re going to win faster than people think
phoenixRED
You’d think the people around Trump would try to control him a little better, when he’s causing so much harm to “his America”. Is treason an American thingy?
I’m not exactly sure of what the Commonwealth Government’s job is. Is it to provide meaningless commentary and promise largesse that never gets delivered?
Like during the bushfires?
Maybe we should abolish the federation and be six different New Zealands.
Apparently some of Diamond Princess crew were flown from Japan to LA and ended up infecting 19 crew members on the Grand Princess.
I wonder if this global pooling of crew helped staff the Ruby Princess in Sydney?
phoenixRED
Trump is a fool!
In case you didn’t already kow.
sprocket_ @ #2907 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 3:56 pm
#EverythingTrumpTouchesDies
Owner of Carnival Cruises, one of Trump’s best friends (if Trump has friends, as opposed to acquaintances, that is).
EGT
I’ m astounded you are saying that Australia has so far had a good response!
Personally I think the health authorities have so far played a text book game based on the plans that have been prepared over many years for a pandemic like this. NSW hospitals are certainly in a good state of preparedness.
The response has been proportionate and escalating depending on circumstances. There should be little panic when the total lockdown comes some time in the next 10 days.
On the Carnival homepage, after all the warnings..
“At Carnival, we’ve always considered our guests to be part of the Carnival family and taking care of each other is at the heart of our mission. Your safety and well-being, and that of our crew and the communities we visit, remains our highest priority.
We know cruising has been in the news a lot lately, causing some of our guests to think about their upcoming travel plans. Looking forward to your holiday should be a fun and worry-free experience so we have relaxed our cancellation guidelines to give you more time to decide if this is the right time for you to cruise.
The coronavirus situation is very fluid and we are doing everything possible to ease your concerns by implementing enhanced measures to protect the health of everyone on board and ensure you have an amazing holiday. Whether you decide to keep your original cruise plans or reschedule for a future date, one thing is for sure – our team will be ready to welcome you for the holiday of a lifetime!”
https://www.carnival.com.au/travel-advisory.aspx
phoenixRED @ #2910 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 3:57 pm
Always the same basic script with Trump:
‘One day we’ll be standing here to say we won…Sure as you’re sitting there…we’re going to win…you’ll get sick of so much winning…and we’re going to win bigly…and fast…very fast…faster than people think…rhubarb rhubarb…’
lizzie says: Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:00 pm
phoenixRED
You’d think the people around Trump would try to control him a little better, when he’s causing so much harm to “his America”. Is treason an American thingy?
***********************************************************
Dr. Fauci facepalms right behind Trump after he rants about ‘Deep State Department’
Dr. Anthony Fauci was caught on camera putting his hand over his face during one of President Donald Trump’s rants about the “deep state” on Friday.
At this point, Fauci facepalmed even as Trump kept talking.
Coronavirus: Dame Vera Lynn uses 103rd birthday to buoy Britain,
She survived the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-19.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-51981339
In a video message on Wednesday, Dame Vera called for people to pull together during a trying period.
“All around the world, people are facing extremely difficult times. It is likely that we will all have to make hard decisions in the coming months,” she said.
“I am reminded of World War Two, when our country faced the darkest of times and yet, despite our struggles, pulled together for the common good and we faced the common threat together as a country, and as a community of countries that joined as one right across the world.”
BW
If that was true we could all relax because an exponential never goes vertical!
Josh Bornstein can tweet about a class action v Princess
The AFL scoring rate seems to have dropped below the sorts of levels seen during the worst of the rainy day mudfields of yore.
Oakeshott Country @ #2916 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 4:03 pm
I really don’t understand this. If we were expecting to lockdown eventually (which everyone seems to agree is going to happen) then isn’t sooner better than later?
‘Jolyon Wagg says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:08 pm
BW
All I know about exponential is that there is some sort of numeric link between when the graph goes vertical and when the truly big kaka/fan moment is upon us all.
.
If that was true we could all relax because an exponential never goes vertical!’
haha. In that case it is no good to me at all, at all.
I was just thinking the virus and the severe economic downturn coming must really hit the MSM, particularly newspapers. Advertising from many firms will disappear.
A silver lining may be the demise of Newscorp.
My friend in the Alps in Switzerland (whose numbers are diabolical) has said the Government response has been a contradictory shambles. Old people are told to stay at home, everyone else is running around like nothing is happening. The canton system is complicating measures, and the Federal Government is refusing to spend money on testing etc….
We’ll run out of people….
‘Torchbearer says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:11 pm
My friend in the Alps in Switzerland (whose numbers are diabolical) has said the Government response has been a contradictory shambles. Old people are told to stay at home, everyone else is running around like nothing is happening. The canton system is complicating measures, and the Federal Government is refusing to spend money on testing etc….’
Yeah, but…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwX5Wtzmmko
‘Cud Chewer says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:11 pm
We’ll run out of people….’
Will the global population be bigger at the end of the pandemic than at the start?
Lots of these emails going out to long gone passengers..at least 4 recently docked cruise liners disembarked infected passengers in Sydney. Upwards of 10k?
Rakali
Yes. We could be left with The New Daily The Saturday Paper Crikey and The Guardian and maybe the Nine Papers.
It’s going to very interesting ratings too.
So many people learning from Netflix Disney and Apple Plus and Prime how to binge watch and avoid advertising with their pay tv.
i think there are several issues of time to lockdown.
1. If the public is not aware of the risk the lockdown will not be enforceable. The fact that large crowds went to Bondi today and a PBer considered going to a birthday party means we are not there yet.
2. Exhaustion through a prolonged lockdown due to a premature start
A lot of the comparisons of Australia’s c19 rates with the rest of the world feels like defensive messaging. I’m not sure the infected, or critical ill, or their families, or the health workers working their buts off would care. Unless the commentary then compares the strategies adopted by the different nations to inform us of improvements we might make.
‘beguiledagain says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:06 pm
Coronavirus: Dame Vera Lynn uses 103rd birthday to buoy Britain,
She survived the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-19.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-51981339
In a video message on Wednesday, Dame Vera called for people to pull together during a trying period.
“All around the world, people are facing extremely difficult times. It is likely that we will all have to make hard decisions in the coming months,” she said.
“I am reminded of World War Two, when our country faced the darkest of times and yet, despite our struggles, pulled together for the common good and we faced the common threat together as a country, and as a community of countries that joined as one right across the world.”’
FMD.
Bullshit abounds.
That ‘community of countries’ included Stalinist Russia and large swathes of (Maoist) China. It include a system of empires which despoiled hundreds of millions of its inmates.
My OH was unable to fill his script for diabetic medicine yesterday as per usual frequency at the usual pharmacy because they were out of stock. Never had a problem before. Times have changed. The pharmacist promised to ring when more came in. He rang around 3pm so OH went for a pleasant walk via the local bushpark to pick his medicine up. As he only had another 4 days of medicine left, it was a relief.
There are “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”.
Boerwar
9 months after there will be.
Pegasus @ #2940 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 3:21 pm
This is commonly said by non-statisticians. 😉
spr
Is big cock up.
American tourists in lockdown in the Barossa:
The group is currently in isolation in their Barossa Valley accommodation, which the Sunday Mail is not naming for security reasons!!
That says to me that Hazzard isn’t taking it seriously. Dr Swan is right.
‘poroti says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:22 pm
Boerwar
Will the global population be bigger at the end of the pandemic than at the start?
9 months after there will be.’
As long as the fornicators don’t engage in saliva transfer they should be good to go.
I still can’t understand the rationale behind allowing football games to continue, if they’re contact sports.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:23 pm
American tourists in lockdown in the Barossa:’
Me! Me! Please lock me down in the Barossa!
American tourists in lockdown in the Barossa:
The group is currently in isolation in their Barossa Valley accommodation, which the Sunday Mail is not naming for security reasons!!
_____
I think I can hazard a guess!