I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of coronavirus for the electoral process. For what it’s worth, the New York Times today reports that research finds no evidence that elections act as vectors for disease. Apropos next Saturday’s local government elections and state by-elections in Queensland, my article had this to say:
According to Graeme Orr, University of Queensland law professor and a noted authority on electoral law, it is still within the power of Local Government Minister Stirling Hinchliffe to postpone the council elections. The byelections for the state seats of Currumbin and Bundamba could also theoretically be called off if the speaker rescinded the writs. Since a state election will be held in October in any case, it might well be argued that filling the latter vacancies for a few months is not worth the bother. However, the official position is that neither pre-poll nor election day booths will experience activity amounting to a gathering of more than 500 people, as per the latest advice of the chief medical officer — advice that will surely be showing its age well before next Saturday.
In other by-election news, the Liberal National Party has put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in Currumbin and Bundamba, and thus behind One Nation, a move that has evidently lost its taboo since the issue of One Nation preferences tore the state’s Coalition parties apart around the turn of the century. This could potentially be consequential in Bundamba, where it is conceivable that One Nation could outpoll the LNP and defeat Labor with their preferences.
Elsewhere:
• The Federal Court has dismissed a Section 44 challenge against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s eligibility to sit in parliament on grounds of dual Hungarian citizenship, to which he was allegedly entitled via his Hungarian-born mother. The petitioner, Michael Staindl, initially pointed to Australian documentation suggesting her family arrived in Australia in 1950 with Hungarian passports, having fled the country the previous year as the post-war communist regime tightened its grip. However, it was established that this arose from loose definitions used at the time by the Australian authorities, and that what the family actually had was “a form of single use emigrant exit passport”. This led Staindl to twice reformulate his argument, eventually settling on the contention that Frydenberg’s mother was left with the “shell” of a citizenship that had been emptied only by the communist regime’s arbitrary and capricious “pseudo-law”, a factor that ceased to apply with its demise in 1989. This did not impress the court, which dismissed the petition and ordered Staindl to pay costs.
• The Age/Herald has polling results from Newgate Research on which aspects of coronavirus are of greatest public concern. The results are reasonably consistent across the board, but top of the list is “the overall economic impact”, with which 41% express themselves extremely concerned, 36% quite concerned, 19% slightly concerned and 4% not at all concerned. “Regular health services not being available” produces similar results of 35%, 32%, 25% and 8%. There are slightly more moderate results for other questions on health impacts and “shortages of food, toilet paper and other essentials”, although in all cases the combination for extremely concerned and quite concerned is well above 50%. The poll is an “online tracking study of more than 1000 Australians, taken between Wednesday and Saturday last week”.
• The West Australian ($) also has a WA-only coronavirus poll, which finds 66% supporting cancellation of large sporting events, 45% for night venues, 35% for cinemas and theatres, 34% for gyms and leisure centres, 29% for schools, 28% for universities, 22% for shopping centres and 16% apiece for restaurants and cafes and public transport. Fifty-one per cent of respondents agreed the government had been fully open and honest about the risks and implications of the virus, with 25% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 890.
• The count for the Northern Territory’s Johnston by-election was finalised on Friday, with Labor’s Joel Bowden winning at the final count over Steven Klose of the Territory Alliance by 1731 votes (52.6%) to (47.4%), in the absence of any surprises in the full preference count. With no candidate polling more than 29.9% on the primary vote, the latter was always an abstract possibility, but the result after the previous exclusion was not particularly close, with Bowden on 1275 (38.7%), Klose on 1110 (33.7%) and Greens candidate Aiya Goodrich Carttling on 907 (27.6%). It seems unlikely that preferences would have favoured the Greens even if it had been otherwise. My live results facility now records the final numbers – there will be more where this came from on this site with the Queensland elections on Saturday week, certainly with the state by-elections, and perhaps also for the Brisbane City Council elections, depending on how things go.
Note also two new posts below this one, one dealing with a new poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, the other being Adrian Beaumont’s latest contribution on the Democratic primaries in the United States.
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 2:54 pm
NSW testing now at 46 K and positive tests increased to 1%.
This remains among the strongest testing regimens in the world
By what measure?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/
Yes 2 days ago. Now includes health and aged care workers with symptoms who must be cleared before working
DisplayName @ #2839 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 2:46 pm
And in the overall scale, of course. Even if it reaches the most dire of predictions, Coronavirus is a minnow. Global warming will be a blue whale by comparison 🙁
Frednk
Those figures weren’t correct even 10 days ago.
Current situation report in NSW
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/coronavirus.aspx
With a pop of just under 8 mill. Now stands at > 5750/million or 1 in 200 New South Welsh have had a test
Oakeshott Country @ #2852 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 2:00 pm
OK. Thanks. Does it take long for the results to return? ie What is the delay before that effect might become apparent?
My maths makes the Growth Factor now around 1.245.
ie about a 24.5% growth rate.
It has gone up from 21% on 29 Feb, 22% on 10 March, to 24.5% on 17 March.
Far from flattening the curve, Morrison and his merry band of obfuscators are making things worse.
It’s time to implement all the measures shown in the Imperial College’s paper
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
What a shame Lyle didn’t make it into parliament. 😆
Oakeshott Country @ #2852 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 12:00 pm
I thought I read the CMO also said the testing criteria would be widened. I certainly heard the WA CMO say that in response to community transmission here in WA.
Frednk
Wow an authoritative site it uses the tests in NSW against the population of Australia. Who put this crap up?
On 8 March using those figures the test rate in NSW was > 1000/mil
What are we to make of reports #Covid19 may have come from a Chinese military lab?
Rex:
There is no evidence only speculation.
By having done close to 115,000 tests across a population of 26 million which is 4,500 tests per million which is world standard.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
State wide the max lag is 48 hours. Regional labs have come on line over the last week which will reduce to less than 24 hours
Just seen a very concerning letter regarding a nursing home in Ashfield, Sydney.
No doubt it will be in the news soon enough.
Holdenhillbilly @ #2860 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 3:09 pm
Does it matter?
Heard today that the local pharmacy has the 2020 flu jab available from monday. Easy online booking system so have myself, ex and oftensprung booked in for this week. Lots of appointments available at the moment. So, succumbing to panic buying maybe??? But fer sure better value that dunny roll. 🙂
Apparently my immune compromised aged mum has to have vaccinations done by her doctor, not a pharmacist, but should be sorted this week.
FYI for locals. I’m in Freo and booked with the pharmacy on South St in Hilton. They stop jabs at 4pm on monday, but are doing till later after tuesday.
Maude Lynne @ #2856 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 2:06 pm
Maybe. Just beware the paper has flaws. There are possibly better strategies.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Frednk
Those figures weren’t correct even 10 days ago.
Current situation report in NSW
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/coronavirus.aspx
With a pop of just under 8 mill. Now stands at > 5750/million or 1 in 200 New South Welsh have had a test.
They were correct on the 8th of march.
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200308_01.aspx
I would be defend-able to say the situation has improved and is now one of the best in the world.
Thanks Late Riser & poroti
It boils down to taking hard decisive action NOW. Something that the Prime Ditherer has been far too slow up ’til now. We need a Rudd (Mark I) but all we got is a Scotty from Marketing.
This article suggests that Dutton’s Border Force is trying to shift blame onto NSW for allowing cruise passengers to disembark in Sydney although four passengers tested positive. Dutton/Hunt have allowed four cruise ships to disembark passengers despite Morrison’s 30 day ban on the practice.
What are rules for except to be obeyed?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/coronavirus-four-cruise-ships-dock-australia-national-ban/12077824
I find it amusing that posters on pollbludger love to play around with stats. Who knew!
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 3:09 pm
Frednk
Wow an authoritative site it uses the tests in NSW against the population of Australia. Who put this crap up?
On 8 March using those figures the test rate in NSW was > 1000/mil
Good point
Shellbell
The Labor states need to pick up their game
Two legs good, Four legs better
There are also predictions divorces and domestic violence will increase….and with the coming crash, I imagine suicides as well…..sadly.
For this reason only, I am happy the AFL and NRL are continuing….blokes can get a distraction, something to chat about, something to unwind over…relieve the tension and boredom of being stuck at home. A bit of normality. Hoping anyway…
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 3:06 pm
What are we to make of reports #Covid19 may have come from a Chinese military lab? There have been enough lies from the communists in Beijing to warrant a major re-think of our relations with totalitarianism.
Na.
It was invented by a disgruntle millennium that could not buy a house. Aim of his project, kill of the oldies, got to admire her effort.
imacca:
I heard that only the over 65s would be able to get the 2020 flu shot early, the rest of us would have to wait.
Btw
In the ANZAC spirit most NSW hospitals now have their PPE stores under lock and key and security guard. There has been significant stealing, not all by staff.
Oakeshott Country @ #2844 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 1:54 pm
So, 1% positive tests for the most likely victims who had overseas contact and show symptoms?
How about an alternative conspiracy theory? Remember Trump’s mysterious tweet of “covfefe” from 2017 which he never explained. Think covid-19. Had Trump been briefed on a secret US biological weapon, a virus no less? Oh well, that’s completely ridiculous, OR IS IT??? {sinister music playing}
OC
We really need to regard this problem as 8 jurisdictional problems (maybe more by introducing sub jurisdictions) because presumably those requiring hospitalisation are not going to be transported around.
We also need information on how many hospitalisations/icus there are and, because of the ventilator issue, how may are ventilated?
The latest NSW figures have aged 70+ cases at 28/436 or 6.4% which is steady and seems a vital stat.
Updated 1 hour ago – Aligned Trajectories of Coronavirus Cases and Deaths by country:
https://imgur.com/a/gzdzajT
Yes. There are reports that about 30% of tests were done outside the criteria due to weakness of clinicians to apply the criteria or worried well lying. Perhaps this gives us a de facto survey of community spread.
However and worryingly the pick up rate has risen from 0.6% a week ago.
Torchbearer @ #2873 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 3:19 pm
Wow! Peeps do not know how to go along to get along with their fam! 😯
Frednk:
No.
As OC pointed out, the figure supposedly for Australia, at:
– https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/
was actually for NSW only. It was then divided by the population of Australia (not NSW), leading to garbage (NSW has about 3/10 the population of Aus, so off by factor 3.33).
Moreover, several others states had a higher ratio than NSW.
The Commonwealth has been hopeless at communicating this (which should easily done). I am increasingly convinced this is at least in part due to most politicians being functionally innumerate.
citizen @ #2878 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 3:26 pm
I’m feeling mischievous. I might Tweet that one out and see if it flies. 😆
EGT
That’s only one of their deficiencies.
citizen @ #2849 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 3:00 pm
No, he’ll probably reserve that job for himself. He’s a policeman, don’t you know? 😐
Emissions are down, maybe it’s greenies wot did it.
“I heard that only the over 65s would be able to get the 2020 flu shot early, the rest of us would have to wait.”
https://www.pharmacy777.com.au/our-services/flu-vaccinations-aged-10-64
Appears to be not so fess.
The comparative trajectory rate has our performance better than all nations at day 10 (we will slip behind on this as more nations reach that mark) save HK, Singapore and Japan (although Taiwan seems to be missing).
Hopefully this co-relates with the levels of testing.
Holden
I think the occurrence figures are meaningless without knowing the testing regime and pickup rates
Death rates are much more informative as its hard to hide deaths
We may be seeing a de facto “herd” approach in the US and UK
C@t if person 501 on Bondi is a young female they won’t have to strip her to do the search
imacca:
I can get it through work for free, but worth knowing for family.
Interesting that kids 10+ years can get the shot, but you have to be 16+ years in SA.
At a presser being held now, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard is not looking well and has coughed, forgetting in the first instance to cough into his elbow.
C@tmomma:
The best thing Ms Berejiklian could do in relation to Mr Elliott is to order him to resume the holiday that was rudely interrupted by the bushfires.
Sint Maartin finally hits the leaderboard.
Where has it been all this time?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
Just spoke to a person moving into a rental in Kew (Melbourne). He rang to get NBN put on. Told the rollout to Kew was stuffed up and will now be available in June 30th.
Thank you Malcolm!
He will have to get ADSL installed. Not sure if the house has the old copper wires going to the house. I didn’t notice them when I was there yesterday.
It does have the HFC cable connected for Foxtell, which makes wonder how could they stuff up the NBN.
This fellow works from home and sends heaps of big files all over the place. He should enjoy the slow adsl speeds- not!
OC
I heard you scored 2 American tourist COVIDS from Adelaide yesterday.
I’m told SA has more than 20 infected from one US tourist group.
Great job Scotty and CMO keeping those borders open as long as possible to let in US tourists.
Blood on their hands.
Elliott may strip search and then machine gun them.
More than half of peeps on our street are virtually in total self-isolation already.
There are isolated links to the outside world – shopping – in most cases.
Some are still engaging in social intercourse with families and/or still going to school. More are still going to work.
But the majority are presenting very, very small targets for the Virus.
It is an old street. The average age is probably somewhere between 60 and 70.
Qantas might do a little charity, perhaps, in return for all that dosh.