Democracy in the time of COVID-19

Queensland council elections and state by-elections to proceed in spite of everything; two polls on attitudes to coronavirus; and Josh Frydenberg off the Section 44 hook.

I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of coronavirus for the electoral process. For what it’s worth, the New York Times today reports that research finds no evidence that elections act as vectors for disease. Apropos next Saturday’s local government elections and state by-elections in Queensland, my article had this to say:

According to Graeme Orr, University of Queensland law professor and a noted authority on electoral law, it is still within the power of Local Government Minister Stirling Hinchliffe to postpone the council elections. The byelections for the state seats of Currumbin and Bundamba could also theoretically be called off if the speaker rescinded the writs. Since a state election will be held in October in any case, it might well be argued that filling the latter vacancies for a few months is not worth the bother. However, the official position is that neither pre-poll nor election day booths will experience activity amounting to a gathering of more than 500 people, as per the latest advice of the chief medical officer — advice that will surely be showing its age well before next Saturday.

In other by-election news, the Liberal National Party has put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in Currumbin and Bundamba, and thus behind One Nation, a move that has evidently lost its taboo since the issue of One Nation preferences tore the state’s Coalition parties apart around the turn of the century. This could potentially be consequential in Bundamba, where it is conceivable that One Nation could outpoll the LNP and defeat Labor with their preferences.

Elsewhere:

• The Federal Court has dismissed a Section 44 challenge against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s eligibility to sit in parliament on grounds of dual Hungarian citizenship, to which he was allegedly entitled via his Hungarian-born mother. The petitioner, Michael Staindl, initially pointed to Australian documentation suggesting her family arrived in Australia in 1950 with Hungarian passports, having fled the country the previous year as the post-war communist regime tightened its grip. However, it was established that this arose from loose definitions used at the time by the Australian authorities, and that what the family actually had was “a form of single use emigrant exit passport”. This led Staindl to twice reformulate his argument, eventually settling on the contention that Frydenberg’s mother was left with the “shell” of a citizenship that had been emptied only by the communist regime’s arbitrary and capricious “pseudo-law”, a factor that ceased to apply with its demise in 1989. This did not impress the court, which dismissed the petition and ordered Staindl to pay costs.

• The Age/Herald has polling results from Newgate Research on which aspects of coronavirus are of greatest public concern. The results are reasonably consistent across the board, but top of the list is “the overall economic impact”, with which 41% express themselves extremely concerned, 36% quite concerned, 19% slightly concerned and 4% not at all concerned. “Regular health services not being available” produces similar results of 35%, 32%, 25% and 8%. There are slightly more moderate results for other questions on health impacts and “shortages of food, toilet paper and other essentials”, although in all cases the combination for extremely concerned and quite concerned is well above 50%. The poll is an “online tracking study of more than 1000 Australians, taken between Wednesday and Saturday last week”.

• The West Australian ($) also has a WA-only coronavirus poll, which finds 66% supporting cancellation of large sporting events, 45% for night venues, 35% for cinemas and theatres, 34% for gyms and leisure centres, 29% for schools, 28% for universities, 22% for shopping centres and 16% apiece for restaurants and cafes and public transport. Fifty-one per cent of respondents agreed the government had been fully open and honest about the risks and implications of the virus, with 25% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 890.

• The count for the Northern Territory’s Johnston by-election was finalised on Friday, with Labor’s Joel Bowden winning at the final count over Steven Klose of the Territory Alliance by 1731 votes (52.6%) to (47.4%), in the absence of any surprises in the full preference count. With no candidate polling more than 29.9% on the primary vote, the latter was always an abstract possibility, but the result after the previous exclusion was not particularly close, with Bowden on 1275 (38.7%), Klose on 1110 (33.7%) and Greens candidate Aiya Goodrich Carttling on 907 (27.6%). It seems unlikely that preferences would have favoured the Greens even if it had been otherwise. My live results facility now records the final numbers – there will be more where this came from on this site with the Queensland elections on Saturday week, certainly with the state by-elections, and perhaps also for the Brisbane City Council elections, depending on how things go.

Note also two new posts below this one, one dealing with a new poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, the other being Adrian Beaumont’s latest contribution on the Democratic primaries in the United States.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Democracy in the time of COVID-19”

Comments Page 55 of 71
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  1. Thanks C@tmomma re the Diggers metho based surface spray. I wasn’t thinking of using it on the skin but just to wipe surfaces including bags brought home etc. However, should things get desperate…

  2. I’ve been trying to draw a distinction for days between isolation, which is absolute removal of a known positive from society till negative, and quarantine, which is either a known positive, someone with a known history of contact with known positive, or someone waiting test results based on a reasonable assumption of exposure, being held in home detention which will only be isolation if they live alone, but otherwise risks the cross contamination with other family members despite every best effort.

    That’s how I see it anyway.

    No, it isn’t easy.

  3. ItzaDream @ #2682 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 8:56 am

    Shellbell @ #2589 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 10:01 am

    [Quentin Dempster
    @QuentinDempster
    ·
    16m
    Cruise ships are known virus incubators. Australia’s Border Force @PeterDutton_MP must explain to the public why a cruise ship was allowed to dock in Sydney Harbour on Thursday without any temperature checks of disembarking passengers. This is a monumental failure.]

    The problem with these tweets is you never know whether the author is shooting from the hip having read a headline or digested the available information beforehand. Such information includes but is not limited to he fact that all passengers were told to go into self-isolation and are being followed up to remind them of the obligation.

    I don’t think this is being semantic, but there is hardly such as thing as self-isolation, unless one lives alone. There is quarantine at home, and this is regarded as a weak link in breaking the cycle, with other family members too easily becoming wandering vectors.

    Following on, and beyond the Dempster spit, there are effective steps that up the ante and are well within Border Force’s capabilities, and Dutton’s mentality.

    Take everyone’s temperature -> elevated temps get tested and held in isolation until the result (hours in dutton’s case if we are to believe that) -> positive results get isolated till two negative returns (boarding schools, empty hotels, the opera house*) and negatives get to go home to self quarantine.

    (* I kid you not – if we are talking about a war situation: there are vast areas for makeshift sleeping quarters, kitchen facilities galore like the green room, toilets front right and centre, storage and change rooms in backstage areas, showering would be limited, but everyone could have a time slot of 1o minutes say, etc)

    Stadiums could be used for this.

  4. My wife’s Aunt, elderly, living in an old folks home, has just been told that the regular visits from her two dutiful (and loving) daughters will now be stopped until further notice.

    This is a decision by the individual nursing home.

    The Aunt’s quality of life is ordinary. She suffers from chronic pain, disabled hands, very limited mobility, and limited eye sight are all constraints.

    The Aunt lives for the daughters’ visits.
    _______
    Boerwar
    The nursing home of whose board I am chairman has likewise stopped visits from Wednesday just gone. We facilitated a good Skype conversation between one old deal and her daughter, neither of whom had any experience of video communication. They both found it to be very good and appreciated our efforts.

  6. 11:43

    Economists from Goldman Sachs are forecasting a dramatic 24% drop in the US nation’s gross domestic product in the coming months, as governments, businesses, schools and more announce increasingly strict measures to keep people at home and apart to try to slow the spread of coronavirus nationwide.

    In an analysis released Friday, economists with the major bank revised their previous forecast of a 5% drop in U.S. GDP for the second quarter (April through June) to a 24% drop, citing expected declines in manufacturing activity and services consumption. If that materializes, it would be historic: In modern history, the largest quarterly decline in U.S. GDP was a 10% drop in the first quarter of 1958.

    “The sudden stop in U.S. economic activity in response to the virus is unprecedented,” the economists wrote, adding that in just the last few days, “social distancing” measures across the country have “shut down normal life” and have already led to a rise in layoffs and a “collapse” in consumer spending.

  8. guytaur

    For those that missed it. The Australian is talking about nationalising companies.
    ————

    They ought to look at banning subversive organisations while they’re at it, like the IPA and Newscorp! 🙂

  12. ‘BK says:
    Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 12:11 pm

    My wife’s Aunt, elderly, living in an old folks home, has just been told that the regular visits from her two dutiful (and loving) daughters will now be stopped until further notice.

    This is a decision by the individual nursing home.

    The Aunt’s quality of life is ordinary. She suffers from chronic pain, disabled hands, very limited mobility, and limited eye sight are all constraints.

    The Aunt lives for the daughters’ visits.
    _______
    Boerwar
    The nursing home of whose board I am chairman has likewise stopped visits from Wednesday just gone. We facilitated a good Skype conversation between one old deal and her daughter, neither of whom had any experience of video communication. They both found it to be very good and appreciated our efforts.’

    Thanks BK. Humane approach. We visit the Aunt fairly regularly and I am not sure that she is up to Skyping but I will suggest the idea to her daughters.

  13. Aqualung

    Greg Hunt was on radio after 11.30 assuring us that we were doing better than any other country: more tests, more research, more money. The sunny uplands are right ahead.

  14. Many have criticized Trump for doing a bit of “it is all under control” “No problem” messaging. But perhaps there is a good reason for hime
    to do so. The US gun culture and a panicking frightened populace would make for a pretty ugly scene. So you’d want all those fingers off the triggers or at least not so twitchy.

  15. ‘poroti says:
    Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 12:19 pm

    Many have criticized Trump for doing a bit of “it is all under control” “No problem” messaging. But perhaps there is a good reason for hime
    to do so. The US gun culture and a panic would make for a pretty ugly scene. So you’d want all those fingers off the triggers or at least not so twitchy.’

    Not very credible when he is trying to pin it on everyone else – essentially setting up the ‘them v us’ meme that will end up framing violent responses.

  16. Shellbell @ #2169 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 10:01 am

    [Quentin Dempster
    @QuentinDempster
    ·
    16m
    Cruise ships are known virus incubators. Australia’s Border Force @PeterDutton_MP must explain to the public why a cruise ship was allowed to dock in Sydney Harbour on Thursday without any temperature checks of disembarking passengers. This is a monumental failure.]

    The problem with these tweets is you never know whether the author is shooting from the hip having read a headline or digested the available information beforehand. Such information includes but is not limited to he fact that all passengers were told to go into self-isolation and are being followed up to remind them of the obligation.

    Self isolation on the train and in the bus on the way home? Or just the uber?

    My neighbours, a couple in their seventies, flew in from London on Thursday night. They had cut short their tour of Europe, having visited six countries over the past 3 weeks, including Italy and Spain. At the airport they were cleared through without any examination or direct verbal communication at all. They were instructed by loud hailer to pick up a three sentence document that instructed them to ‘self isolate’ for fourteen days. They were delivered back to the central coast in the local airport transfers mini-bus, together with 2 other couples, of similar age.

    I learnt all of this in a conversation between them, another neighbour couple and myself, as I returned from my daily dog walk last evening. The ‘isolated’ couple were shouting on one side of the street, and the others, standing on the opposite kerb were shouting back. The travellers had had no idea of the situation back here, and the document, which she read out to us, had no explanation of what was meant by ‘self isolation’.

    There is a lot more to this situation, which I will not bore you with, concerning weddings cancelled by the function centre with one day’s notice, and the death of a mother, with no idea of how and when a funeral can be arranged.

  18. Trump Ignored Multiple Classified Coronavirus Warnings

    U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while President Trump and lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen, according to U.S. officials familiar with spy agency reporting.

    Taken together, the reports and warnings painted an early picture of a virus that showed the characteristics of a globe-encircling pandemic that could require governments to take swift actions to contain it. But despite that constant flow of reporting, Trump continued publicly and privately to play down the threat the virus posed to Americans.

    It turns out that US intelligence agencies saw it coming, and tried to warn Trump. The President ignored their warnings because he gets his intelligence briefings from watching Fox News.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2020/03/20/trump-ignored-coronavirus-warning.html

  19. Vodka story.

    We were in St Petersburg and after a tour of the Summer Palace (Catherine; amber room, OMG) our guide took us to lunch at a local restaurant (there was a stuffed bear inside the front door) where Putin dined, she said (think going to Doyle’s and Turnbull dined there) and where her brother was the sommelier. They were both dangerously good looking (the guide and her brother, not Putin and the bear, nor Turnbull).

    I was coming down with a bad cold, to which the (devastatingly handsome) brother had the solution. It arrived as two 50 ml shots of horse radish vodka, to both be drunk in one swallow in rapid succession. At least I didn’t have to stand backwards on a window sill five floors up. It killed everything, and nearly me.

  20. Diogenes

    Excellent epidemiological article on COVID-19

    Thank you. It complements the earlier one by the same guy.

    #1 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
    #2 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

    In his opening he writes

    If we choose to fight hard, the fight will be sudden, then gradual.
    We will be locked in for weeks, not months.
    Then, we will get more and more freedoms back.
    It might not be back to normal immediately.
    But it will be close, and eventually back to normal.
    And we can do all that while considering the rest of the economy too.

    At a distance, this seems to describe China’s actions.

  21. Dr. Dena Grayson‏Verified account @DrDenaGrayson

    Since January, experts (including me) repeatedly warned that this #coronavirus had a high risk of causing a global #pandemic.

    Trump repeatedly downplayed the seriousness of #COVID19 & did NOTHING to prepare.

    In the face of a highly contagious, deadly virus, INACTION = more DIE.

    The virus is bad. The virus plus Trump–much worse.

  23. The virus will do what it will, completely dependent on the human reactions and responses available for it to use.
    My concern is political. Morrison is an accidental PM and an unnatural leader, ill-equipped to provide the direction needed at this time.
    Morrison’s ante political career was characterised by controversy.
    Since being elected, Morrison has more often than not, used the “I’m doing what we were elected to do” response whenever. Morrison’s hand in the dishonest rorting of funds allocation is his legacy for the ages.
    Morrison hapless bushfire denial, response to and lack of genuine empathy is recorded for all to see.
    I fail to be reassured that the Morrison signature all over Australia’s role in the world-wide pandemic will somehow be in the best interest of all Australians and Australia’s place in the bigger picture.
    Both hording and hoarding are desirable characteristics to possess when being chosen as a LNP operative.
    The nation of gamblers are doing what they do well!

  25. I often think of this Proverb when reflecting on Donald Trump’s boasting about how great he has been for the US economy – his speech at Davos and State of the Union examples.

    “The proverb “pride goeth (goes) before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall” (from the biblical Book of Proverbs, 16:18) is thought to sum up the modern use of hubris. Hubris is also referred to as “pride that blinds” because it often causes a committer of hubris to act in foolish ways that belie common sense.”

  26. My mother-in-law’s aged care place is locked down completely. Woohoo. Visitors can meet their rellies in the gardens only, at safe distancing, and therefore only for those capable of getting to the gardens

    The first nursing home place where there is an outbreak will cop it bad.

  28. Report on my morning of hunting and gathering at local Woolworths.

    I didn’t rush down early, deciding to let fate decide what was available, and to my surprise the store was pretty well stocked again – bread, lots of meats, milk (which reminds me, I forgot cheese), panadol. There were lines marked on the floor at the checkout counters and a vague sense that most people really were ‘socially distancing’.

  29. lizzie @ #2728 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 12:35 pm

    Report on my morning of hunting and gathering at local Woolworths.

    I didn’t rush down early, deciding to let fate decide what was available, and to my surprise the store was pretty well stocked again – bread, lots of meats, milk (which reminds me, I forgot cheese), panadol. There were lines marked on the floor at the checkout counters and a vague sense that most people really were ‘socially distancing’.

    How can you forget cheese!

  30. It is interesting to consider the reaction of Coalition Governments to the three big challenges of our time:

    * Islamic terrorism: vast overreaction, political exploitation

    * Global Heating: denial, more recently paying lip-service but basically inaction, distraction (e.g. power prices)

    * The Virus: generally appropriate but late and muddled

  31. lizzie
    It is looking more and more like the supply chains are catching up with the speculative hoarders.
    There are going to be an awful lot of people who are seriously overprepared for diarrhea.

  32. Even with his dire warning ringing in their ears, New Yorkers were still stunned when the truth finally hit on Thursday. Within a single day, the number of confirmed cases in the city had more than tripled to 3,954 – almost a third of all coronavirus cases in the nation.

    Of those, almost one in five of the sickened individuals have needed hospital care, much higher than is typical, underlining the massive challenge to the city’s health system. At least 26 have died.

    “We’re seeing an explosion of cases here in New York City,” Bill de Blasio, the mayor, said.

    That’s just the start. “The latest figures reflect only the tip of an iceberg,” said Theodora Hatziioannou, an associate professor in virology at the Rockefeller University in Manhattan.

  33. ItzaDream

    How can you forget cheese!

    I’ve got plenty of marinated and herbed goat’s cheese, but I meant to buy grated for throwing into pasta. I think I got a bit over excited after finding the fresh milk!!

  34. Player One @ #2722 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 12:30 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2717 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 12:23 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2691 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 12:00 pm

    Thank goodness I no longer have to suffer Pegasus’ preaching from the Purity Mount. Today’s little sermon is execrable! 😆

    What’s happened to Pegasus ?

    Nothing dramatic. She highlighted how thin-skinned a couple of PB’s usual suspects are, is all.

    Thanks P1. Not sure why the need for such a nasty toned post from C@tmomma.

  36. Summary
    Forecast
    Stats
    Download
    Alerts
    Wall Street sold off on Friday, as fiscal stimulus uncertainty and a rapidly spreading virus weighed on sentiment and stocks suffered their worst week since 2008. On Friday, the Federal Reserve announced it is expanding its asset purchase program to include municipal bonds. However, the Senate has been unable to deliver a fiscal stimulus package, raising investors´ concerns. Lockdowns and further social restrictions in California and NY have been announced while coronavirus cases continue to spike in the US and abroad, with Italy suffering 627 deaths in just 24 hours. On the corporate side, CNBC reported that Ronin Capital, a clearing firm at the CME Group, was unable to meet its capital requirements. The Dow Jones plummeted 913 points or 4.6% to 19,174 points. The S&P 500 sank 105 points or 4.4% to 2305. The Nasdaq plunged 271 points or 3.8% to 6880. Considering the full week, the Dow lost 17.3%, the S&P 500 fell 15% and the Nasdaq declined 12.6%.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market

    The AUD is below 0.58…

  37. LR
    Some German in the family a few generations back and have had quite a few German friends, colleagues, business and life partners. One who has just canned their trip back there in April to see their 80+ mother for the first time in a few years. Seem to get along well with their sensibilities.

    We get a regular trickle of Journeymen carpentry apprentices on their Wanderjahre around this area, usually helping locals with building homes for a place to stay. Always say hi and welcome if I see them in their gear, who else wears black corduroy floppy hats, big buttoned vests and flairs?

  39. As I read the article posted earlier this quote leapt out.

    So why is the fatality rate close to 4%? If 5% of your cases require intensive care and you can’t provide it, most of those people die. As simple as that.

    He goes on to talk about the flow on effect to “normal” health issues during an other overburdened health systems, such as when ambulances are too busy. Grim stuff.

  42. [‘NSW Government to shut down Bondi Beach

    The Berejiklian government will shut down Bondi Beach as thousands of people continued to descend on the beach in defiance of health authorities’ pleas to abide by social distancing measures in order to slow the spread of coronavirus.

    A government spokesman confirmed the measure on Saturday afternoon.

    Police Minister David Elliott and NSW Police Assistant Commissioner Karen Webb will announce move at a press conference at 2pm.’]

  43. KayJay

    Where do i find the “dashboard” on my laptop? I have looked in vain without success. Or, do I have to download an app?

    TIA

  45. If all other food is gone, the supermarkets seem to have plenty of easter eggs and chocolate bunnies. Could one survive 14 days on this?;

  46. Well I got to Woollies around 8.10am and there were no toilet rolls, no paper towels, no hand soap, very little mince but plenty of higher end cuts of beef, not much chicken and the supermarket was full.

    I noticed when I arrived plenty of seniors wheeling trolleys out with toilet paper and hand towels. I noticed Woollies are extending the seniors shopping hour for another week but perhaps they need to curtail that as they are buying up all the stock before people who work during the week can get to the stores.

  47. C-19 Summary:

    [‘Italy recorded 627 new deaths taking the country’s death toll to 4,032. Globally, as at 10am AEDT, there are 271,629 total confirmed cases, 11,280 deaths and 87,377 have recovered, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

    Health Minister Greg Hunt has blasted Bondi beachgoers for “putting others at risk” at called on local councils to crack down on the behaviour.

    Australia’s embassy in Paris has been hit by the coronavirus outbreak, forcing some staff to self-isolate just as they face the biggest demand for their services in history.

    The US military is preparing to convert hotels, college dormitories and conference centres into temporary intensive care units to deal with the expected surge of coronavirus patients in the coming weeks.

    The US and Mexico closed its shared border to non-essential travel as New York’s Governor ordered the state’s nearly 20 million residents to stay at home.’]

    – Source: SMH

  48. There have been questions as to whether Morrison is send his girls to school, as all he has said is that they are enrolled. This seems to be the answer.

    Biddy McDermott
    @BidsterMc
    · 4m

    Apparently his office said his kids were off for a few days last week due to sniffles but that they’d be back on Monday. Time will tell.

  49. Lizzie mercifully I missed the Hunt.
    Re the Queensland CMO, just looking and sounding the part helps. I agree she is clear and can put across the facts in easy to understand language whilst sounding authoritative. There is an urgency without panic. First time I’ve seen her BTW.

  50. Pegasus @ #2740 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 12:52 pm

    RD

    After seeing GG’s repeating my post (which I always appreciate>, it’s Cat’s way of megaphoning she has me blocked.

    C@t always makes a loud noise about how she blocks certain people – completely contrary to William’s guidelines, BTW – but in fact it is obvious she reads every post 🙂

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