Three things

The major parties in Victoria get fiddling to nobble the Greens in local government; candidates confirmed for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election; and Barrie Cassidy’s moustache strikes back.

Three things:

• The Victorian parliament has passed contentious legislation to change the process by which boundaries are drawn for local government elections, the effect of which will be an end to proportional representation in many councils and a return to single-member wards. This was passed through the upper house with the support of both major parties, and fairly obviously targets the Greens, whose local government footprint expanded considerably in 2016. The legislation is covered in greater detail by Ben Raue at The Tally Room. Relatedly, The Age reports Labor plans to endorse candidates across metropolitan councils at the elections in October, after doing so in only three councils in 2016. The Liberals in Victoria have never endorsed candidates.

• The closure of nominations for Queensland’s March 28 by-election for Bundamba on Tuesday revealed a field of four candidates representing the Labor, the LNP, the Greens in One Nation, just as there will be in Currumbin on the same day. You can read all about it in my election guides for the two seats, which are linked to on the sidebar.

• For those who have forgotten what a Labor election win looks like, Malcolm Farnsworth has posted four hours of ABC election night coverage from 1983 in two parts, here and here. The broadcast predates results at polling booth level and indicative two-party preference counts, which would have to wait until the 1990s, and without which it was difficult for analysts to read the breeze from partial counts in any but the most homogenous seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,957 comments on “Three things”

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  1. You are a prime smartarse, Lars.

    Look out the window instead of slagging off other people. Just for once.

    The punters have ALREADY taken matters into their own hands.

    Morrison should be grateful it’s just panic-buying so far.

  2. frednk says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 2:20 pm

    Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    Latham was the first anti-party leader, Rudd the second anti-party leader, it is my belief Shorten will become the third unless he is restored to the leadership.

    To claim Rudd is anti party is to misrepresent the facts, to attribute future actions to shorten is Lars Von Trier wishful thinking.
    _________________________________
    The leaking and undermining of Gillard during the 2010 election campaign? Not anti-party?

  3. WAYNE Swan has unloaded on an “unstable” and “vengeful” Kevin Rudd and opined his just desserts will be that almost half of all Australians will hate him for the rest of his days.

    The chaotic and bizarre behaviour of the former prime minister has been explicitly outlined in Mr Swan’s memoir, The Good Fight: Six Years, Two Prime Ministers and Staring Down the Great Recession.

    The book, which will be launched tomorrow, also makes the stunning conclusion that the Labor Party would have done better in the 2013 polls if it had stuck with Julia Gillard.

    He also attacks the rich and big business for their self-interest in staying rich, and asks, “I’m not against people becoming wealthy … but really how much do they need?”

    The former treasurer and deputy prime minister reveals Mr Rudd was vacuous, a hater and more interested in seeing himself in positive headlines than pursuing good policy and government.
    _______________________________
    Not anti-party, frednk?


  4. Lars Von Trier says:
    ..
    The leaking and undermining of Gillard during the 2010 election campaign? Not anti-party?

    So your telling me you don’t know how hard politics is played in the Labor party.

  5. Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 2:22 pm
    You are a prime smartarse, Lars.

    Look out the window instead of slagging off other people. Just for once.

    The punters have ALREADY taken matters into their own hands.
    Morrison should be grateful it’s just panic-buying so far.

    _______________________
    Geeze Louise, lighten up.

    If we are all going to die of a horrible plague/ virus why not enjoy the time we have left? Not Obsessing over yet another Liberal PM.

  6. Bushfire Bill @ #148 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:17 pm

    The virus is here now. It’s spreading. And soon it will be everywhere.

    If you think winning debating points will cure it, or that reaching out to besieged ethnic communities will make them feel better, then go debate and reach out somewhere else.

    Reaching out will only increase your risk of becoming infected, and of infecting others.

    If the first thing is true (and it is) then the virus isn’t something that is or will be confined along ethnic lines. It will be everywhere.

    Which makes reaching out to an ethnic community no more or less risky than reaching out to any other community.

    So reach out to everyone or shun everyone as you see fit. Don’t pretend like there’s any protective value left in shunning some ethnicities and not others; that only serves to mislead. The virus doesn’t care where anyone was born. And it is, at this point, basically everywhere.

  7. frednk:

    [‘It is not a medal they need or a glossy pamphlet, I bet the chief thug has not even thought far enough ahead to buy the protective clothing needed to perform the arrest.’]

    Yes, and not only that. We are informed by authorities that if you are suffering COVID-19 symptoms, you should ring your doctor to warn him/her that you’re coming in for a consultation. You are advised to wear a mask. The problem is, at least where I live, masks are as rare as hen’s teeth. This matter could get right out of hand very quickly.

  8. Victoria’s Chief Medical Officer Brett Sutton said it was “imperative” that healthcare workers understood their risk.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/doctor-consulted-70-patients-at-toorak-clinic-while-infected-with-coronavirus-20200307-p547su.html

    Like the theatre nurse at a Mid North Coast hospital I was at the other day said, “It’s no more than a bad cold, and it’s only the oldies dying anyway.”

    True story.

    My neighbour (who was attending for a minor surgical procedure, which this nurse attended) and I were gobsmacked.

    There is a lot of similar ignorance about.

  9. From what I am hearing from my healthcare colleagues on the ground- the virus is out there and popping up everywhere.
    Talk about quarantine, and tracking contacts etc is now pretty much PR and window dressing.
    Good luck !

  10. I kinda knew you wouldn’t be able to resist, A R. Scoring points and condemning others seem to be your main preoccupations here.

    You are obviously a very virtuous person. When you next reach out to the Korean, Iranian, Italian and Chinese communities, give them a big hug from me.

  11. Bushfire Bill @ #161 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:43 pm

    Scoring points and condemning others seem to be your main preoccupations here.

    The only thing I condemned was misinformation about preventing infection.

    If you’re going to allege that I’ve condemned anything other than that, kindly quote whichever words you’ve misinterpreted as doing so.

  12. BB did the uber driver you told us about the other night only drive for Korean, Iranian, Italian and Chinese?

    Time to get a little real, it’s here and it doesn’t matter if your 1st, second or 5th generation Australian.

  13. GG

    Yep. My bad. Years.

    One of the things that is noticeable when talking with young peeps is that they have no idea what a recession is like and expect to live through live without experiencing one.

  14. You’ve got a hide to come back BB after your last post last night single-handedly demolished your own prior attempts to portray your initial Coronavirus magnus opus was at all indicative of an anti-Chinese attitude.

  15. Victoria’s Health Minister is “flabbergasted” over a doctor returning to work after suffering symptoms of COVID-19, after flying in from the States and seeing up to 70 patients while infected. Even if he just thought that it was a cold, he should’ve erred on the side of caution.

  16. Mavis
    after flying in from the States and seeing up to 70 patients while infected. Even if he just thought that it was a cold, he should’ve erred on the side of caution.?

    Just shows being educated does not mean you are intelligent!.
    There’s a lot of that in LNP politics.

  17. You’ve got a hide to come back BB after your last post last night single-handedly demolished your own prior attempts to portray your initial Coronavirus magnus opus was at all indicative of an anti-Chinese attitude.

    Was that the post where I connected

    ● the deep and documented penetration of Chinese government agents of influence into Australian society and politics, in particular into the Chinese-Australian community and the Chinese-Australian media,

    ● attempts to hack into Australian computer systems,

    ● the Chinese government’s complete control over the export of funds from China,

    ● the surge in ethnically Chinese real estate buyers in large areas of our capital cities,

    ● and high real estate prices?

    Where do you think much of these hundreds of billions of dollars – even just for the upfront deposits – are coming from, Lovey?

    Fantasyland?

  18. 1934pc:

    [‘Just shows being educated does not mean you are intelligent!.’]

    Yes. Keating, for example, was pretty smart but wasn’t tertiary educated. And even if he thought that he merely had a cold, he should not have fronted up to work. Now over 70 people are forced to self-quarantine for 14 days, with the real fear that they may’ve been infected.

  19. It will be interesting to see if the “conservatives” who opposed Mr Rudd’s “cash splash” in response to the global financial crisis will now oppose the incipient “cash splash” in response to the Corona induced supply shock.

    The GFC involved a general shortage of liquid money in private hands. A “cash splash” is a logical response to a financial crisis as it puts wholly liquid money (cash) directly into private hands.

    Corona has disrupted supply chains, and thus induced a generalised supply shock. That is, there is a short of goods and inputs for consumers to buy, no matter how much they’re willing and able to pay. It is not at all clear how a “cash splash” assists people to buy things that aren’t available at any price. Instead one would expect to see prices rise (aka inflation), without alteration to the volume purchased.

    That said:
    a – it might of course be beneficial to create some inflation in today’s ultra-low inflation environment
    b – higher offered prices might unlock more expensive supply channels from regions not currently affected by Corona but hitherto off market due to higher cost of production

  20. Things are slowly but steadily ramping up in the US :

    Ryan Struyk‏Verified account @ryanstruyk

    Latest @CNN reporting:

    4:25 p.m: Minnesota reports first coronavirus case

    5:20 p.m: First coronavirus case in Oklahoma

    6:35 p.m: Connecticut reveals first coronavirus case

    7:18 p.m: First coronavirus case in Kentucky reported

    8:05 p.m: Nebraska reports first coronavirus case

    8:46 p.m: First confirmed case of coronavirus in Hawaii

    ….. but …. but …. Donald has it under control :

    Maggie Haberman‏Verified account @maggieNYT

    At his fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago tonight, POTUS repeated to the crowd of several hundred donors that the Coronavirus concerns will be over in “a couple of months,” per one attendee.

  21. Sorry, Rudd-bashers, but he still has credibility with me………….and with a lot of others I suspect………
    He knocked off Howard (who also suffered the indignity of losing his seat – how we cheered that night!). He took on the the mining industry and they spent mega dollars of shareholder money to get him – which they did and they cheered about it…………….How can we forget the vomit-making picture Twiggy F and Julie Bishop smooching at the tax ‘revolt’ they started in Perth?
    I suspect had we had the various revenue raising policies in place arising from this period, we would have a healthier economy today – pink batts and all. Around the nation there are hundreds of extra school buildings which were put up to save tradies’ jobs and will all be there 20-30 years from now due to his legacy – not to mention thousands of wide-screen TVs as part of the GFC package.
    So he upset those who worked around him – tough.
    He (Labor) was leading 52-48 in the polls when some in the party decided they had the luxury of numbers to knock him off…………………..
    Despite Gillard, Labor has not really recovered from the political error of thinking the dumping an intelligent and articulate leader somehow was a winner.
    The man was, and still is, highly intelligent. His brain has not ceased functioning just because he is now out of politics………………………..more that can be said for some who are still in politics.

  22. ‘Preppers’ have endured years of mockery. Coronavirus fears have given them a booming self-survival business

    (CNN) — Do you have your “bug-out bag” (BOB) ready for when the “s*** hits the fan” (SHTF), or will you “bug in” for “the end of the world as we know it” (TEOTWAWKI)?

    This jargon is well understood within niche “prepper” communities, whose members spend their lives preparing for impending Armageddon — natural disasters, pandemics or financial collapse.

    And the ideas that drive this culture are becoming increasingly mainstream as coronavirus panic sees people across the world stockpiling rations, sourcing gas masks and self-isolating at home.

    Now, “civilians” are turning to expert preppers in droves for help in getting ready for the worst.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/06/europe/coronavirus-preppers-business-europe-gbr-intl/index.html

  23. Tricot @3:35. ”… His brain has not ceased functioning just because he is now out of politics………………………..more that can be said for some who are still in politics.”

    We’ll avoid naming names to avoid embarrassing Tony Abbott.
    Of course, some politicians get their brains back when they leave politics. Again, without wanting to embarrass Malcolm Turnbull.

  24. Even if he just thought that it was a cold, he should’ve erred on the side of caution.

    At the time, the general consensus was that this was all just a beat-up, being run by racists and bogans too lazy to subscribe to The Lancet and fill themselves on on the latest jargon-infested research.

    Medicos would not be immune to this. There are just as many deadhead doctors and nurses as there are toilet paper-buying bogans out there.

    Our own Prime Minister was exhorting us to carry on as normal by “going out to the footy or a Chinese restaurant.” He most probably picked “Chinese restaurant” because Gladys Liu would have told him her donors were unhappy, and of course 99.8% of virus sufferers were Chinese. Morrison had just let thousands of them into the country. He couldn’t back down on that. He’d have been admitting a mistake.

    We had governments telling us there was no need to close schools, or restrict students. Universities were wailing about losing their fees. Tim Soutphommasane was writing articles telling us we should be ashamed of ourselves for crossing ethnic eateries off our destination lists.

    Posters here were telling us (seriously) that if it was impossible to tell an infected Chinese person from an uninfected one in a restaurant (or even Greater Box Hill), then we should assume all people of Chinese appearance were clear. Go to the Dragon Festival, or the community concert and take the chance. “Live life as if each day was your last,” was the wisdom put about. Symptoms are only mild – just like the doctor’s in fact – so go about your normal day… if you’re young.

    No-one mentioned doctors or Iranian nurses.

    I’m having a surgical procedure next week, at sleepy Gloucester Hospital. I’ve been required to sign a form, acknowledge two text messages and one phone message affirming I haven’t been ANYWHERE overseas in the last two weeks. I’ve been asked to take my passport to surgery so my affirmations can be verified.

    They just didn’t ask the doctors and the nurses the same question, it seems.

  25. Bill Maher destroys the president and his ‘Trump University School of Medicine’ degree

    HBO “Real Time” host Bill Maher went off on President Donald Trump’s response to the coronavirus epidemic.

    The host noted that Disneyland was still open despite California calling a state of emergency over the coronavirus outbreak.

    And then he went off on “Donald Trump, MD” and the degree he received from the “Trump University School of Medicine.”

    Given Trump’s false statements on COVID-19, Maher wondered if it could be contracted by “pull stuff out of your ass.”

    He also wondered who viewers should believe, the World Health Organization or a “guy who stared at an eclipse.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/bill-maher-destroys-the-president-and-his-trump-university-school-of-medicine-degree/

  26. phoenixRed:

    It was a good Real Time discussion this week. I thought Rachel Bitecofer’s interview was very interesting.

  27. It is starting to feel like a bit of ‘daretotread-Ebola’ is starting to set in around the world.

    Just because DTT was wrong, doesn’t mean reaction to C19 is overblown. The two premises are unrelated to each other.

    ● DTT predicted an ebola pandemic.
    ● DTT was wrong.
    ● Therefore anyone who predicts any pandemic is also wrong.

    Is not logical.

    For one thing, this is a much sneakier disease, far better suited to pandemic spread than Ebola, which kills it victims much quicker and in greater numbers per infection. Ebola puts itself out of business fairly quickly, whereas coronavirus keeps plugging away.

  28. BB @2:17 PM. “The virus is here now. It’s spreading. And soon it will be everywhere.”

    I strongly suspect that this is a correct assessment. Just in the space of a week the whole feel of this epidemic has changed in a way that we didn’t see (in Australia, anyway) with the Swine Flu (2009) or SARS (2003).

    The Swine Flu did escape worldwide but after early concerns it turned out to be no more virulent than normal flu. This one is definitely worse.

    I’ll go to the supermarket tomorrow morning. I’ll pick up the usual stuff, plus a few extra items to add to my stash of non-perishables. I’m not too worried about toilet paper.

  29. Any predictions as to whether/to what extent the virus (or virus induced recession) might affect property prices? Asking for a friend.

  30. My educated contribution for today is that I would rather get C19 than put together another piece of flat pack furniture! 😯 😆

  31. sprocket

    That was interesting, to see the source of some of the similar expressions today, such as Arsewipes and bungholes. 🙂

  32. Sounds as if we, the public, should be the ones demanding to know whether anyone in a medical centre or a paramedic has been abroad lately.

  33. Donald Trump finds himself knee deep in the malarkey

    Wednesday night, when Donald Trump gave an interview to Sean Hannity on Fox News about the coronavirus, his narcissism and proud ignorance were on full display. Within the space of two minutes, Trump managed to offer so much misinformation and dangerous advice that we can only hope no one dies from this self-absorbed lunatic’s ramblings.

    Something is alarmingly wrong when the President of the United States, whoever it may be, boldly misleads Americans about a growing public health threat while contradicting the careful, informed messaging from experts around the world, including in his own government. Although you and I might know to ignore such reckless drivel, many Americans will take Trump’s advice to heart. For some, it is because they always believe this bloviating buffoon, while some others are just used to trusting a President of the United States on such serious matters. Trump is continuing to prove that he’s incapable of keeping Americans safe—he’s only facilitating the further spread of a scary and deadly disease into the country he is supposed to protect.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/malarkey-knee-deep-donald-trump/25876/

  34. phoenixRED,
    If what I have read is correct, Social Darwinism is about to take a chunk out of Trump’s base. I have read of someone saying that because C19 is like a mild flu they aren’t going to do anything about it.

    Hmm, maybe there is a God after all? 🙂

  35. Dr Karl @DoctorKarl
    ·
    11m
    Latest Epidemiological Models for the UK are that in the UK, of those who will get infected,
    50% get infected in first month, 95% by 2 months.
    If we bring in the necessary changes, it is possible that in Oz
    OZ, we get 20% infected, 1% Death Rate → 50,000 Deaths

    Seems rather a lot?

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