Three things

The major parties in Victoria get fiddling to nobble the Greens in local government; candidates confirmed for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election; and Barrie Cassidy’s moustache strikes back.

Three things:

• The Victorian parliament has passed contentious legislation to change the process by which boundaries are drawn for local government elections, the effect of which will be an end to proportional representation in many councils and a return to single-member wards. This was passed through the upper house with the support of both major parties, and fairly obviously targets the Greens, whose local government footprint expanded considerably in 2016. The legislation is covered in greater detail by Ben Raue at The Tally Room. Relatedly, The Age reports Labor plans to endorse candidates across metropolitan councils at the elections in October, after doing so in only three councils in 2016. The Liberals in Victoria have never endorsed candidates.

• The closure of nominations for Queensland’s March 28 by-election for Bundamba on Tuesday revealed a field of four candidates representing the Labor, the LNP, the Greens in One Nation, just as there will be in Currumbin on the same day. You can read all about it in my election guides for the two seats, which are linked to on the sidebar.

• For those who have forgotten what a Labor election win looks like, Malcolm Farnsworth has posted four hours of ABC election night coverage from 1983 in two parts, here and here. The broadcast predates results at polling booth level and indicative two-party preference counts, which would have to wait until the 1990s, and without which it was difficult for analysts to read the breeze from partial counts in any but the most homogenous seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,957 comments on “Three things”

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  1. Boerwar

    Morrison eventually called the military in to help after bushfires. Perhaps he’ll get them doing food deliveries to the isolates.

  2. Nath, I listened to TURC

    Bill Shorten said that the unions didn’t want send companies broke so in case of chicita mushrooms where the insurance premiums were $12 million he negotiated for workers to go casual.

    Cleaners when quizzed about a detail of the MCG Grand Final cleaners, Shorten said “That’s not how management represented this”. IOW they lied!

    Stoljar questions demonstrated his complete lack of knowledge of any industry, neither did Heydon Dyson. If either had done an MBA they would be aware of a world beyond the courtroom

    Shorten answered like he was presenting a case study at Melb. MBA

  3. Joking aside, did someone earlier suggest an app similar to the emergency service, to tell us where the confirmed cases are? There’s no point in panic peaking too early.


  4. a r says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 12:36 pm

    Surely if someone is placed under quarantine it’s the quarantining authority’s responsibility to ensure they’re adequately supplied with food, water, and other basic necessities for the duration? Doing otherwise just invites them to ignore the quarantine.

    Case reported where guy want to super market to buy his two weeks supply. Well what do you expect him to do, isolate in the hope we can work out how to order online?

    Where the fridge magnet telling people what to do?

  5. Kevin Rudd defends his legacy.

    Rudd at least did something positive to protect working families from the GFC. Morrison has mixed is using ideology to justify the inaction and dithering we are seeing atm. If Australia goes into a recession voters are not going to be kindly disposed towards Morrison and co.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1236062519082528768

  6. ‘a r says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 12:36 pm

    Boerwar @ #94 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    If that 4,000 did not stock up on a fortnight’s supplies, they are now all depending on somebody else to supply them over the next fortnight.

    Surely if someone is placed under quarantine it’s the quarantining authority’s responsibility to ensure they’re adequately supplied with food, water, and other basic necessities for the duration? Doing otherwise just invites them to ignore the quarantine.’

    We disagree on a fundamental here.

    My view is that it is up to individuals to take as much responsibility for themselves as they can. This is not only a philosophical view. It is also a pragmatic view. Having lived in communities where resupply was once or twice a year is a useful lived experience in these circumstances.

    A month ago or so I posted that those of us with personal, family, national or race memories of hunger, deprivation, starvation, famine, fleeing as refugees, and of social dislocation, would be quietly stocking up on food and medicines. They would be doing so because in their direct experience, or in the direct experience of close friends, family members or countrymen, people would have reached some sort of point where hunger, death from treatable diseases, want and starvation happened to their family members, to their friends and/or to their colleagues. They would also know that those with full larders would have been able to continue feeding their children, and so on and so forth.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yei-TxVwItY

    Our family experienced those things first hand. There are a couple of points that arise. The first is that a prudent person prepares. The second is that you cannot always rely on governments to provide you with life’s necessities.

    The notion that Government responses to C19 epidemic is scaleable depends almost entirely on the rate of growth of C19 infections over the next few months. I have no idea what that rate might be. I have no idea whether a point will be reached when it becomes more or less impossible for the government to provide adequately for everyone.

    I have no confidence that Australian systems will be able to continue to cope across all possible scenarios in Australia.

  7. Another judge orders review of Russia-probe related document

    Court wants to see memo on March 2017 conversation in which Trump complained to NSA about Russia probe

    A federal judge in Washington has ordered the National Security Agency to turn over to her a memo that details an unusual conversation in which President Donald Trump pleaded with former NSA chief Adm. Mike Rogers to take action to rebut news reports about collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/judge-russia-probe-document-123083

  8. billie @ #102 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 12:46 pm

    Nath, I listened to TURC

    Bill Shorten said that the unions didn’t want send companies broke so in case of chicita mushrooms where the insurance premiums were $12 million he negotiated for workers to go casual.

    Cleaners when quizzed about a detail of the MCG Grand Final cleaners, Shorten said “That’s not how management represented this”. IOW they lied!

    Stoljar questions demonstrated his complete lack of knowledge of any industry, neither did Heydon Dyson. If either had done an MBA they would be aware of a world beyond the courtroom

    Shorten answered like he was presenting a case study at Melb. MBA

    These union hacks in Labors parliamentary ranks essentially got their spots by enabling business to hire more workers at lower wage rates but still gouging their union fees for Labors coffers.

  9. The situation in Iran is even more chaotic than I had imagined it to be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/06/chinese-schools-reopen-as-coronavirus-cases-in-europe-continue-to-rise

    Last week Xi launched a book, ‘written by Xi’, which purported to be something like the triumphant equivalent of the Long March, except that it applied to Conquering the Epidemic. It was launched with all the pliant hagiography we have come to expect from the Chinese equivalent of the Murdochracy.

    There was a shit storm of social media dissing from the citizenry. The peeps are not happy!

    The book has been very, very quietly pulled.

    I mention both the Iranian and Chinese incidents for a reason. It seems to me that, some time in the future, historians will look back at the C19 Pandemic and posit that the Epidemic was the beginning of the end for quite few regimes across the world.

  10. WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Trump on Friday pushed out Mick Mulvaney, his acting White House chief of staff, and replaced him with Representative Mark Meadows, a stalwart conservative ally, shaking up his team in the middle of one of the biggest crises of his presidency.

    Mr. Trump announced the change on Twitter after arriving in Florida for a weekend at his Mar-a-Lago estate, choosing to make one of the most significant switches he can make in his White House on a Friday night when most of the country had tuned out news for the weekend. As a consolation prize, the president named Mr. Mulvaney special envoy for Northern Ireland.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/us/politics/trump-mark-meadows-mick-mulvaney.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage


  11. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 12:59 pm

    Will Rudd just move on for goodness sakes and get past his obvious insecurity and shame at being sacked.

    The fact that Labor can manage the economy under difficult circumstance and the Liberals struggle to make sane decisions when the economy is humming needs to be driven home again and again and again.

  12. Re the YouTube toilet paper fight.

    In Melb supermarkets are getting daily deliveries that leave the shelves in 6 minutes so those women likely queued for store to open. Here you are limited to 4 packets. Each packet contains 18 rolls and it’s the Kleenex wavy paper

    The warehousemen and drivers have purchase their toilet paper at the supermarket so no hint of stealing

    FYI. I purchased 1 pack

  13. Denialists will now say there is no need for us to act.

    Humans have seemed unable to get a handle on climate change, with global emissions of greenhouse gases continuing to grow every year. But a microscopic pathogen, so structurally simple that it does not even have a single cell and is arguably not even alive, may be capable of accomplishing what our political leaders thus far cannot.

    Experts say that greenhouse gas emissions in China, the world’s largest current contributor to climate change, are down 25 percent in recent weeks as the country conducted a massive societal intervention to stop the spread of the virus. Air pollution is also down, due to decreased driving and less coal burning.

    Meanwhile, as the virus enters a second phase, spreading beyond China to other countries, it is dampening global demand for oil and air travel, and threatening overall global economic growth. All of these are strongly linked to greenhouse gas emissions.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/03/06/coronavirus-could-halt-worlds-emissions-growth-not-that-we-should-feel-good-about-that/?arc404=true

  14. It is entirely just, right and fitting that the first Australian Recession in around 30 quarters will be delivered by our two prize economic chumps: Morrison and Frydenberg.


  15. Rex Douglas says:

    but still gouging their union fees for Labors coffers.

    That pretty much tells you all you need to know about Rex Douglas.

  16. My view is that it is up to individuals to take as much responsibility for themselves as they can. This is not only a philosophical view. It is also a pragmatic view.

    That’s all fine, up until the point someone in a position of authority tells you you’re quarantined. Then I think there’s a shared responsibility.

    If an authority wants to have any credible expectation that you’ll do what they say, then they have to be ready and able to ensure that you can do what they say. It’s not like anyone asks to be placed under official quarantine. Or that people who haven’t prepped/hoarded in advance for a lengthy quarantine can be expected to sit there and starve.

  17. frednk @ #116 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:16 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 12:59 pm

    Will Rudd just move on for goodness sakes and get past his obvious insecurity and shame at being sacked.

    The fact that Labor can manage the economy under difficult circumstance and the Liberals struggle to make sane decisions when the economy is humming needs to be driven home again and again and again.

    Yes, by those who currently need to sell their credentials, namely Chalmers and Albanese.

    Rudd has no credible standing in the voters’ minds other than Labor rusted on partisans.

  18. Rex Douglas

    Mushroom pickers would not have a job if the insurance premiums rose because chicita would have closed their operation

    Cleaners at MCG Grand Final were paid a particular way, the company assured the union that these cleaners were newbies every year – they weren’t so about 4 cleaners were worse off

    If you bothered to review the TURC proceedings you would be most impressed with Bill Shorten

    Clearly you rely on hearsay to inform your opinions – so good luck to you.
    How are your franking credits going in your tax free super stream? Asking for a friend.


  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:23 pm

    ….

    Rudd has no credible standing in the voters’ minds other than Labor rusted on partisans.

    Which, given his successes is quite unjust. I don’t think there will be many that will deny him is right to defend his legacy given the misrepresentation that has come from people like you.

  20. I see that the Bush Rat Pack is back to smearing Labor peeps.

    What they don’t want to talk about is how they are going to trash the poorest Australians in the Bush by:

    1. Pulling GMO cotton and GMO canola.
    2. Reducing irrigation by at least 605,000 megalitres
    3. Piling on ecosystem service obligation regulations.
    4. Closing feedlots.
    5. Closing piggeries.
    6. Closing aquaculture.
    7. Closing down the uranium industry.
    8. Closing down the coal industry.
    9. Closing down the live export trade.
    10. Closing down defence industries.
    11. Stop people from hunting ducks.

  21. billie @ #125 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:24 pm

    Rex Douglas

    Mushroom pickers would not have a job if the insurance premiums rose because chicita would have closed their operation

    Cleaners at MCG Grand Final were paid a particular way, the company assured the union that these cleaners were newbies every year – they weren’t so about 4 cleaners were worse off

    If you bothered to review the TURC proceedings you would be most impressed with Bill Shorten

    Clearly you rely on hearsay to inform your opinions – so good luck to you.
    How are your franking credits going in your tax free super stream? Asking for a friend.

    Unlike yourself, I don’t buy the lines being sold from the cosy relationships business has with particular unions.


  22. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:24 pm

    So you’re ok with workers copping lower wages thanks to their union reps ?

    As was pointed out above by others this is a misrepresentation of the facts. But that does not concern people like you does it.

  23. frednk @ #128 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:26 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:23 pm

    ….

    Rudd has no credible standing in the voters’ minds other than Labor rusted on partisans.

    Which, given his successes is quite unjust. I don’t think there will be many that will deny him is right to defend his legacy given the misrepresentation that was come from people like you.

    Rudd was very successful with his agenda during the minority progressive Govt years.

    So successful Labor rewarded him with life membership.

    😆

  24. Rex Douglas:

    These union hacks in Labors parliamentary ranks essentially got their spots by enabling business to hire more workers at lower wage rates but still gouging their union fees for Labors coffers.

    Your parroting of the right wing / supply-side falsehood that wage costs determine employment levels is noted.


  25. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:30 pm

    frednk @ #128 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:26 pm

    ….

    Rudd was very successful with his agenda during the minority progressive Govt years.

    I have to give you that one. It does not change the fact however that he and Swan managed the GFC very well, and the present government is about to royally stuff this crisis up.

  26. frednk @ #132 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:28 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:24 pm

    So you’re ok with workers copping lower wages thanks to their union reps ?

    As was pointed out above by others this is a misrepresentation of the facts. But that does not concern people like you does it.

    Lots of people like me can see the cosy relationships that have been built between business and certain unions that has dudded workers.

  27. GG:

    Boerwar @ #121 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:19 pm

    It is entirely just, right and fitting that the first Australian Recession in around 30 quarters will be delivered by our two prize economic chumps: Morrison and Frydenberg.

    years?

    Mate the tide of innumeracy is overwhelming; at least it’s only off by four this time

  28. frednk @ #135 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:33 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:30 pm

    frednk @ #128 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:26 pm

    ….

    Rudd was very successful with his agenda during the minority progressive Govt years.

    I have to give you that one. It does not change the fact however that he and Swan managed the GFC very well, and the present government is about to royally stuff this crisis up.

    We can agree on the merits of this Govt.

  29. E. G. Theodore @ #134 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:32 pm

    Rex Douglas:

    These union hacks in Labors parliamentary ranks essentially got their spots by enabling business to hire more workers at lower wage rates but still gouging their union fees for Labors coffers.

    Your parroting of the right wing / supply-side falsehood that wage costs determine employment levels is noted.

    My eyes are open to both business and certain unions who dud their workers.


  30. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    frednk @ #132 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:24 pm

    So you’re ok with workers copping lower wages thanks to their union reps ?

    As was pointed out above by others this is a misrepresentation of the facts. But that does not concern people like you does it.

    Lots of people like me can see the cosy relationships that have been built between business and certain unions that has dudded workers.

    I am sure it is discussed regularly at Liberal meetings and Green party gatherings ( to call them meetings would be to overstate the management of their irregular get together). Main topic of discussion in any anti Labor circle where facts can be put aside and union bashing is the topic.

  31. E. G. Theodore @ #137 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:35 pm

    GG:

    Boerwar @ #121 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:19 pm

    It is entirely just, right and fitting that the first Australian Recession in around 30 quarters will be delivered by our two prize economic chumps: Morrison and Frydenberg.

    years?

    Mate the tide of innumeracy is overwhelming; at least it’s only off by four this time

    I think BW just miswrote. Anyone can make an error. I was just clarifying.

  32. frednk @ #140 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:41 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    frednk @ #132 Saturday, March 7th, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 1:24 pm

    So you’re ok with workers copping lower wages thanks to their union reps ?

    As was pointed out above by others this is a misrepresentation of the facts. But that does not concern people like you does it.

    Lots of people like me can see the cosy relationships that have been built between business and certain unions that has dudded workers.

    I am sure it is discussed regularly at Liberal meetings and Green party gatherings ( to call them meetings would be to overstate the management of their irregular get together). Main topic of discussion in any anti Labor circle where facts can be put aside and union bashing is the topic.

    Look, Labor partisans deliberate ignorance of these cosy relationships won’t make them go away.

  33. I know of two acquaintances who although having received a formal letter from the Federal Health Department to self-quarantine following their return from a high-risk country, are not abiding by it. I’d imagine that they are not on their Pat Malone. If, as is predicted, many thousands contract COVID-19 or have contracted it but only have minor symptoms, it’s highly doubtful that authorities have the means to enforce self-quarantine, despite the powers available to the CMO under the 2015 Biosecurity Security Act.

  34. Rex Douglas:

    My eyes are open to both business and certain unions who dud their workers.

    “Eyes open” – aka “woke” – is useful only if accompanied by “brain on”

  35. Mavis

    It is not a medal they need or a glossy pamphlet, I bet the chief thug has not even thought far enough ahead to buy the protective clothing needed to perform the arrest.

    Would have done a lot better to explain why it is needed and how to go about it instead of engaging in bit of attempted gratuitous bullying.

  36. Latham was the first anti-party leader, Rudd the second anti-party leader, it is my belief Shorten will become the third unless he is restored to the leadership.

  37. Joking aside, did someone earlier suggest an app similar to the emergency service, to tell us where the confirmed cases are?

    That was me.

    The bushfire app, coupled with those depressing (but effective) “What’s YOUR Plan?” Commercials are thought to have reduced expected deaths to 10% (from over 200 expected to 25).

    It’s a no-brainer that all relevant information should be put into one, easy to access location. Almost everyone had the bushfire app. It would be the same with a coronavirus app.

    It really is time to quit deflecting discussion about this serious outbreak (with catastrophic potential) by red herrings and gaslighting tactics such as social commentary on hurt ethnic feelings or laughing at bogan panic shoppers buying toilet paper.

    The virus is here now. It’s spreading. And soon it will be everywhere.

    If you think winning debating points will cure it, or that reaching out to besieged ethnic communities will make them feel better, then go debate and reach out somewhere else.

    Reaching out will only increase your risk of becoming infected, and of infecting others.

    The core of the problem is lack of coherent leadership. Morrison is still squibbing on virus spending because he holds out hope for a miracle Surplus, and is too busy Not Being Kevin Rudd to act wisely.

    That the GFC was a “Northern Hemisphere thing”, that Labor blew the Howard Surplus because they spent too much (and killed some young insulation workers), that we didn’t dodge a bullet because there was no bullet, have been Old Coalition Standbys (and have worked their way into Common Wisdom) for a decade and more.

    Essentially, given the lying, the ransacking of the Treasury for party expenses, the turnover of Prime Ministers (more PMs and sacked faster than Labor could have dreamed of) and the abominable management of the economy under three Coalition governments, claiming Labor was worse is all they’ve got.

    Morrison will not give these tropes up lightly. He will fudge his response to the virus by attempting to minimize it’s potential. This will justify his coming “measured” response: it was no big deal, see?

    If Morrison will not act, then the ordinary people in the street can’t be blamed for taking matters into their own hands.

  38. Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    ….

    If Morrison will not act, then the ordinary people in the street can’t be blamed for taking matters into their own hands.
    ______________________
    What are you suggesting a popular Sudan-style uprising?


  39. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    Latham was the first anti-party leader, Rudd the second anti-party leader, it is my belief Shorten will become the third unless he is restored to the leadership.

    To claim Rudd is anti party is to misrepresent the facts, to attribute future actions to shorten is Lars Von Trier wishful thinking.

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