Bundambarama

A second by-election now looms in Queensland, in which One Nation may cause trouble in a traditionally Labor-voting working class seat. Elsewhere, Josh Frydenberg faces a contentious Section 44 challenge, and a Victorian Liberal aspirant regrets not paying his train fare.

At the top of the sidebar are links to guides I have up for three by-election campaigns currently in progress, including yesterday’s new addition:

• Queensland’s festival of democracy on March 28 looks set to receive a new attraction after Jo-Ann Miller’s announcement to parliament yesterday that she is resigning as member of the eastern Ipswich seat of Bundamba, effective immediately. After two decades as Labor member, Miller has grown increasingly estranged from her party over time, a particularly interesting manifestation of which was an appearance alongside Pauline Hanson on the campaign trail two days before the December 2017 state election. One Nation did not field a candidate against Miller in 2017, but has been quick to announce it has a candidate ready to go for the by-election, who will be announced on the weekend. Since Ipswich was the birthplace of the Hanson phenomenon, this could yet make the by-election more interesting than the 21.6% two-party margin suggests. Tony Moore of the Brisbane Times reports Steve Axe, Miller’s electorate officer, will contest the preselection, but Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the front runners are two candidates of the Left: Nick Thompson and Lance McCallum, who are respectively aligned with the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Electrical Trades Union. I have a provisional by-election guide up and running which takes it for granted it will be held on March 28, though this is yet to be officially confirmed. Also on that day will be the Currumbin by-election and council elections, including for the big prizes of the Brisbane city council and lord mayoralty.

• Further on the by-election front, I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday on the Greens preferences imbroglio in Johnston.

Legal matters:

• The Federal Court is hearing a Section 44 challenge against Josh Frydenberg relating to his Hungarian-born mother, which complainant Michael Staindl argues makes him a dual citizen. Frydenberg’s mother and her family fled the country in 1949 as its post-war communist regime tightened its grip on power, describing themselves as stateless on arrival in Australia. Staindl maintains that the whole family’s Hungarian citizenship rights were restored with the collapse of communism in 1949. Staindl is also pursuing defamation action against Scott Morrison over the latter’s claim that his action was motivated by anti-Semitism. The Australian ($) reports a decision is expected “within weeks”.

• In further legal obscurantism news, Emanuele Cicchiello has withdrawn from the race to fill Mary Wooldridge’s vacancy in the Victorian Legislative Council on the grounds that he once pleaded guilty to an offence carrying a prison term of more than five years – for improperly claiming a concessional train fare when he was 19. The Australian ($) reports that those remaining in the field are Asher Judah, former Property Council deputy director and Master Builders policy manager, and Matthew Bach, deputy director of Ivanhoe Girls Grammar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 comments on “Bundambarama”

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  1. [‘Louise Milligan has given her tick of approval to the new Headmaster of St Kevins.’]

    Why, I don’t know.

    In the context of her investigation, her role is to report on his record of achievement and then others can decide.

  2. Technically, alcohol would be a worse drug than dope … more people die because of alcohol related issues. And that doesn’t include the damage of domestic abuse as a result of or exacerbated by alcohol.

  3. Bettina Arndt cherry-picks the stats (custodial parents) to prove that women are as culpable as men. Many victims are killed after the parents are separated, I believe.

    @thebettinaarndt
    · 56m
    …skews the overall picture. The most recent filicide figures covering 2000 – 2012 show 76% of the 284 victims were killed by a custodial parent—46% by a custodial mother & 29% by a custodial father:

    ***

    Dr Julia Baird @bairdjulia
    ·
    9m
    This take excludes step-fathers and misrepresents the Australian Institute of Criminology research, which finds a “predominance of male offenders” and a prevalent “history of #domesticviolence”. (p.12)

  4. “I think the cartoon backfires on several levels. Look how happy Lee Rhiannon is”

    ***

    Hehehe indeed. I wonder if the cartoonist was drawing inspiration from personal experience?

  5. “Technically, alcohol would be a worse drug than dope … more people die because of alcohol related issues. And that doesn’t include the damage of domestic abuse as a result of or exacerbated by alcohol.”

    ***

    100%.

  6. “Biden doing well in his town hall — exhibiting a great deal of passion — which all voters like”

    ***

    It will be interesting to see if he can recover some support from Bloomberg after last night. He didn’t really stand out in the debate but was a little more energetic I thought.

  7. The outlook is indeed for Trump to win again and maybe to increase his vote share and electoral college margin, while also improving the down-ticket voting for Republicans in other contests.

    Dark days.

  8. Alcohol is also a far more pleasant drug than dope, which accounts for its very widespread popularity and use.

    My experience with dope – well over 40 years ago – was that it just made me feel like utter shit. I’ve not used it since and have never missed it.

  9. has anyone else noticed that some labor people here have been (1) challenging greens to express an opinion on albanese’s speech to come (complete with 3 specific questions to respond to), while other labor supporters have been (2) condemning greens for expressing opinions on albanese’s speech to come ? -a.v.

  10. Tobacco is a far worse substance than alcohol in terms of its effects on individuals. It is a source of very many life-shortening diseases.

  11. alfred venison says:
    Friday, February 21, 2020 at 12:46 pm

    has anyone else noticed that some labor people here have been (1) challenging greens to express an opinion on albanese’s speech to come (complete with 3 specific questions to respond to), while other labor supporters have been (2) condemning greens for expressing opinions on albanese’s speech to come ? -a.v

    I hope the Greens attack Albo. The more the Greens do to put distance between themselves and Labor the better. I don’t care what the Greens say as long as they condemn Labor. The more conspicuously and vocally they do this the better.

    I really hope the Greens generally follow the example of their NT outfit and put Labor last on the HTVs, on whatever grounds they might like to use. Labor has to dissociate itself from the Greens in every possible respect.

  12. alfred venison @ #162 Friday, February 21st, 2020 – 12:46 pm

    has anyone else noticed that some labor people here have been (1) challenging greens to express an opinion on albanese’s speech to come (complete with 3 specific questions to respond to), while other labor supporters have been (2) condemning greens for expressing opinions on albanese’s speech to come ? -a.v.

    Labor is a broad church – there’s the right wing, and then there’s the ultra right wing! 🙂

  13. Albo speech in full.. a snippet

    “And in recent months we had some foreshadowing of the costs of inaction. And that’s before we see the carbon tariffs and other measures that are being promoted by many of our trading partners.

    That’s why today I announce that a Labor Government will adopt the carbon neutral target of zero net emissions by the year 2050.

    This should be as non-controversial in Australia as it is in most nations.

    This will be a real target, with none of the absurd nonsense of so-called ‘carryover credits’ that the Prime Minister has cooked up to give the impression he’s doing something when he isn’t.

    That’s not acting. It’s cheating. And Australians aren’t cheaters.

    A Labor Government will never use Kyoto carryover credits.

    Climate change is real and needs a real response.

    I’m passionate about this, just as I am about strengthening our economy and creating jobs.

    Action on climate change means more jobs.

    It means cheaper and cleaner energy for families and businesses.

    People just want to get this done.

    The climate wars have seen a decade wasted, when it should have been a decade won.

    https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/anthony-albanese-speech-leadership-in-a-new-climate-melbourne-friday-21-february-2020

  14. P1 is doing their best to serve Labor too. They make it quite obvious that they despise Labor. This is a valuable contribution to the political theatre.

  15. Denise Allen
    @denniallen
    ·
    57m
    Just spoke to Gov. Gen office re status of request to revoke Bettina Arndt’s AO. Was told “they’re having meetings about it”. Asked if there was anyone I could speak to give me a better update of when it might happen. Reply was “I’m not sure it even will happen”. #auspol #MSM

    @BelindaJones68
    ·
    6m
    I spoke to them today too, Denise. They have been swamped with requests to strip Arndt of her award.

    I hope they act soon and I hope Arndt gets some help soon, it has now gone beyond ‘free speech’, what she is now advocating is literally dangerous. Something must be done.

  16. alfred venison says:
    Friday, February 21, 2020 at 12:58 pm
    hello RI : i’ve smoked pot since i was 17, 50 years ago.

    Good for you.

    I don’t like it. It just made me very miserable. I hate smoking. Absolutely hate smoking.

  17. “Alcohol is also a far more pleasant drug than dope, which accounts for its very widespread popularity and use.

    My experience with dope – well over 40 years ago – was that it just made me feel like utter shit. I’ve not used it since and have never missed it.”

    ***

    Many people are far from “pleasant” when drunk to say the least. Pot use is very widespread in Australia.

    It’s not for everyone, just like alcohol isn’t for everyone either. Not all pot is the same either as there are many different strains of cannabis plants.

    Example from a legal shop in the US…

  18. “Tobacco is a far worse substance than alcohol in terms of its effects on individuals. It is a source of very many life-shortening diseases.”

    ***

    Yep. Nicotine is easily the most addictive out of the three.

  19. I mentioned the rail derailment earlier today that led to the tragic death of two workers. Track or train maintenance had to be strongly suspected. Sure enough that track had prior complaints on its track and signal condition. At what point does an asset owner act in breach of OH&S legislation when failing to provide a safe workplace?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/wallan-train-derailment-union-says-track-awaiting-maintenance/11987230

    Note in this article that one rail operator had refused to operate trains over this section of track on safety grounds, yet another continued to do so. How can safety of a technical system be an arbitrary choice? Because we still have an abysmal lack of binding, consistent national standards on what is safe. If nobody in Canberra is clever enough to write some, we should move to adopting international (preferably European / French or German) standards for rail infrastructure. The inconsistency in recent rail and light rail project delivery highlights what a dogs breakfast the current funding and management system is.

    Regardless of whether it is a Greens New Deal or a Labor New Deal if there is one neo-Liberal policy from the 1990s that needs to be booted out it is the disastrous privatisation of essential infrastructure including energy, transport and water. If the service is essential the consumer gets gouged (e.g. power, tollroads). If it is not profitable the maintenance gets cut and condition deteriorates (e.g. rail, irrigation water). Worst case (e.g. power grid) both things happen. The mainteneance cuts also usually hit jobs in the bush, so this policy is a dud for city and country.

    All the best rail systems in the world are government managed or at least government owned and with a tightly specified private manager. Why are ours still run under the fiction that privatisation works? Michael McCormack has questions to answer.

  20. Today’s dope is more dangerous than the old stuff with some people becoming hyper aggressive under it but like any drug it simply exaggerates a person’s personality.

  21. Xanthippe tells me that in terms of aggressive behaviour, ice/meth related drugs are by far the most dangerous. They fry the frontal lobe, destroying areas of the brain that inhibit inappropriate behaviour. Dio can probably explain more. So ice addicts become more violent over time and are far more dangerous than marihauna or heroin addicts. And the damage is not curable. Many of the most notorious drug related crimes in recent years have been committed by ice addicts, including the Bourke Street mass-murder for instance.

  22. Player One

    I’m sure there will be a suitable Sir Humphrey quote to explain when there will be a policy . Probably even one to use that explains the policy position they take.

  23. correction, RI, i don’t smoke it anymore, i use a vaporiser now. -a.v.
    ***dear William Bowe, you can leave that last comment of mine up, if its not too late. i changed my mind, again. :-(. sorry for the trouble. -sincerely, a.v.

  24. Socrates
    ICE /meth is by far the most aggressive drug which is why serious users might benefit from being institutionalised where they can dry out. A great “what if” is if only Jeff had implemented the Pembleton recommendations.

  25. Socrates
    Re the derailment

    A freight train also came off the tracks in Wallan in 2017 and last month a passenger and freight train crashed at Barnawatha near Albury, but no one was hurt.

    In December, Infrastructure Australia knocked back a proposal to have an upgrade of the line from Melbourne to Albury placed on the nation’s priority infrastructure list.

    It found the Australian Rail Track Corporation’s business case for the $198 million project “materially overestimated” the community benefits from the works.

    The business case noted that V/Line had a self-imposed speed limit of 15km/h on the 82-kilometre stretch between Broadmeadows and Seymour, which includes Wallan, due to “poor track quality” such as mud holes and tight rail alignments.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/v-line-drivers-avoided-track-section-where-deadly-wallan-train-derailment-occurred-20200221-p542xw.html
    The Australian Rail Track Corporation owns this rail (and 8,500km of rail across 5 states).
    The Hon Warren Truss AC was appointed to the ARTC Board as Chairman on 21 April 2018.
    He reports to…….
    DPM Michael McCormack, the man who should have pushed for the rail upgrade requested by the ARTC.
    BUT
    such things cost money.
    Maybe the surplus was more important.

    Due to The Doctrine of Ministerial Responsibility, McCormack said he would resign.
    .
    .
    .
    Just joking, of course.

  26. Steve Schmidt Torches ‘Complicit, Lickspittle’ GOP For Letting Trump Sell America To Russia

    Former GOP strategist Steve Schmidt tore into congressional Republicans on Thursday for allowing Donald Trump to sell U.S. democracy to Russia.

    During a discussion with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, Schmidt said, “What this is is an attack on the United States of America by a hostile foreign power, an attack on our elections.”

    He added, “There has to be an appeal to what has been a complicit, compliant, lickspittle Republican Congress who has allowed this president to run amuck.”

    It’s 2016 all over again

    Thursday’s news that Donald Trump is trying to suppress information about Russian involvement in the 2020 election should be no surprise. After all, he still can’t bring himself to admit that the Kremlin worked on his behalf to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2020/02/20/steve-schmidt-torches-complicit-lickspittle-gop-for-letting-trump-sell-america-to-russia.html

  27. poroti @ #186 Friday, February 21st, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    Player One

    I’m sure there will be a suitable Sir Humphrey quote to explain when there will be a policy . Probably even one to use that explains the policy position they take.

    Albo is going to cut through the present mish-mash of ALP Federal and State climate change and energy policies (or in some cases, lack of policies).

    You just wait!

  28. Maud Lynne

    Yes exactly. This is from another coverage of the incident:
    “The track is operated by the Federal Government-owned Australian Rail Track Corporation, and Deputy Prime Minister and Infrastructure Minister Michael McCormack was briefed on the incident last night.”
    https://www.railpage.com.au/news/s/train-driver-pilot-killed-in-horror-sydneymelbourne-train-derailment

    As I said, Michael McCormack has questions to answer. Indeed, he has blood on his hands. They can find $10 billion for a new inland rail link through Barnaby Joyce’s electorate that has never had a business case signed off by IA. Yet they can’t find $200 million to upgrade this 316km section of track to a decent standard. IA says it is “not a priority”. Really? It carries both the Sydney – Melbourne trains and those on the proposed new inland route.
    https://railpage.com.au/news/s/infrastructure-australia-knocks-back-north-east-rail-line-upgrade

    With the Nationals, it is hard to see the incompetence for the corruption.

  29. phoenixRed

    I posted this yesterday, and am posting it again because I believe its importance can’t be overstated.
    The machine/computerised voting systems they use in the US are highly insecure.
    Almost certainly hacked by foreign powers, and the GOP are supressing any attempt to investigate, let alone improve security.
    Trump will win again because (the Russians??) will simply adjust votes to make it so.

    In the US, Sen Ron Wyden, who is a member of the Intelligence Committee, is pushing for improved election security. He is getting nowhere.
    He was asked:

    When you proposed a discussion of your election-security bill today, was it again [Tennessee Republican] senator Blackburn who shut it down for the Republicans?

    Senator Ron Wyden: Yes, Marsha Blackburn objected to both Senator Warner’s proposal and my efforts to pass the Securing America’s Federal Elections Act (SAFE), which largely incorporates my earlier bills [requiring] hand-marked paper ballots and [risk-limiting] audits and cybersecurity standards. [Minnesota Democrat] Amy Klobuchar and I are the sponsors of it in the Senate.

    I was struck by the fact that the Republicans will accept no—repeat, no—cybersecurity standards. And I pointed out that right now, today, you can have a voting machine with an open connection to the internet, which is the equivalent of stashing American ballots in the Kremlin
    ……
    The total lack of cybersecurity standards is especially troubling. I mean that’s what I said on the floor of the Senate an hour ago. How can it be that the Republicans say that you can just let voting machines have an open connection to the internet? It should just be a no-brainer. But the lack of cybersecurity standards leads local officials to unwittingly buy overpriced, insecure junk

    It appears Republicans are protecting voting machine companies, and expect to benefit from insecure voting systems. This issue will not go away.
    https://www.fastcompany.com/90465001/senator-ron-wyden-the-gop-is-making-a-mockery-of-election-security

  30. Albanese

    “Labor is laying the foundations of our big Renewal Project.

    We’ve put the loss of the last election behind us in the rear view mirror, and we’re looking forward with new confidence.
    :::
    Our National Platform is being redrafted and renewed to provide a modern expression of traditional Labor values.
    :::
    A date has been set for the next National Conference, at which we will democratically decide our way forward as a social democratic party in the third decade of the Twenty-First Century.”

  31. “Today’s dope is more dangerous than the old stuff with some people becoming hyper aggressive under it but like any drug it simply exaggerates a person’s personality.”

    ***

    Like I mentioned above, not all pot is the same. One of the big benefits of it being made legal would be that you’d be able to walk into a shop, see all the different types, and know exactly what you’re buying and how strong it is. The shops can be supplied by legal farms that grow it professionally.

    The Greens’ plan also allows for people to have plants themselves, so even if you aren’t into smoking or eating it, you could still grow a couple in the backyard just because they look cool! And planting trees is good for the environment! Win win! 😛

  32. Maude Lynne says: Friday, February 21, 2020 at 1:50 pm

    phoenixRed

    I posted this yesterday, and am posting it again because I believe its importance can’t be overstated.
    The machine/computerised voting systems they use in the US are highly insecure.
    Almost certainly hacked by foreign powers, and the GOP are supressing any attempt to investigate, let alone improve security.
    Trump will win again because (the Russians??) will simply adjust votes to make it so.

    **************************************************************************

    Thanks Maude – I am truly believing that the US is its own worst enemy. Yesterday and todays news of Trump appointing a couple of “toadies’ in Richard Grenell- with NO EXPERIENCE IN INTELLIGENCE and now I hear Kash Patel as his deputy to the Director of National Intelligence – which oversees the U.S. intelligence community,”

    Before joining the NSC, Patel previously worked as Rep. @DevinNunes’ top staffer on the House Intelligence Committee and was the lead author of a report questioning the conduct of FBI and DOJ officials investigating Russia’s election interference. https://t.co/zDK1B6hx1m

    — Daniel Lippman (@dlippman) February 21

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/devin-nunes-aide-may-have-just-gotten-his-big-reward-for-being-a-trump-toadie/

    and an older but still relevant article by MARK HERTLING – the former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Seventh Army

    Putin’s Attack on the U.S. Is Our Pearl Harbor

    Make no mistake: Hacking the 2016 election was an act of war. It’s time we responded accordingly.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/16/putin-russia-trump-2016-pearl-harbor-219015

  33. Rumours circulating in transport circles that McCormack might be sacked over the Infrastructure Australia refusal to upgrade the NE line between Mel and Syd

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