4:06pm 88% counted now, and Biden will finish second ahead of Buttigieg. I’ve done an article for The Conversation that emphasises the differences between the county delegate count (huge win for Sanders) and the initial popular vote (far less impressive for Sanders).
9:50am Monday Still only 60% reporting. If Nevada was close like Iowa, there’d be another stink about the slow results.
4:30pm 43% now reporting, and Sanders has 47% of county delegates, but only 34.5% of the initial alignment vote. He has 40.3% of the vote after realignment.
4:08pm CNN has more up-to-date figures on initial and final votes. Using CNN’s results, I calculate that Sanders has 35% of the initial vote and 40.5% of the vote after realignment with 34% in. Those figures are not as impressive for Sanders as his share of county delegates (47%).
Once again, we’ve had a dreadfully slow caucus count. Hopefully there’ll be more clarity tomorrow.
2:10pm And it’s suddenly jumped to 22.5% reporting, with Sanders at 34% on first alignment, 40% on final alignment and 47% of county delegates.
2:07pm With 11% reporting, the Sanders margin is smaller on the first alignment votes. Sanders has 34% on this measure, Biden 19%, Buttigieg 16% and Warren 12%. On popular votes after realignment, Sanders has 40%, Biden 23%, Buttigieg 17% and Warren 10%. On county delegates, 47% Sanders, 24% Biden and 14% Buttigieg.
Sanders is being assisted in the final alignment votes by being the only candidate who exceeds the 15% threshold in the vast majority of precincts.
12:20pm With 4% reporting, the Associated Press has CALLED Nevada for Bernie Sanders.
11:18am Once again (as in New Hampshire), the AP count, used by the NY Times, is well behind the count used by the TV networks including CNN. With 10% reporting, the CNN results give Sanders a large lead in initial votes, but there are no percentages.
11:05am As with Iowa, the counting in Nevada is SLOOOOW!! Just 3.4% of precincts have reported their initial alignment.
9:52am With less than 3% reporting, Sanders has 44% of the initial vote, 54% of the final vote and 55% of county delegates. The initial vote is slightly ahead of the other two measures in precincts reporting. Still a long way to go, but it’s looking like a big win for Sanders.
8:41am With 1% reporting, Sanders has 48% of the initial alignment, 53% of the vote after candidate realignment, and 52% of the county delegates. Biden is a distant second with 18%, 23% and 26% on these three measures respectively.
7:33am The caucuses actually began 33 minutes ago. First results are expected by 8:30am. Entrance polls give Sanders about 35%, with the next highest at 15%.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The Nevada Democratic caucuses begin at 10am local time Saturday (5am Sunday AEDT). I am not sure when to expect results; they could come in the early morning, but may not come on Sunday at all, given the Iowa fiasco. Caucuses are managed by the party, not the state’s electoral authorities. It should be a relief that there are very few caucuses after Nevada.
Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally to all candidates who clear a 15% threshold, both within a state and Congressional District. In the RealClearPolitics Nevada poll average, Bernie Sanders has 29.0%, Joe Biden 16.0%, Pete Buttigieg 14.0%, Elizabeth Warren 14.0% and Amy Klobuchar 10.5%. Current national polls give Sanders 28.7%, Biden 17.3%, Mike Bloomberg 15.2%, Warren 12.7%, Buttigieg 10.0% and Klobuchar 6.7%.
With these polls, Sanders is the only candidate far enough above 15% to be assured of clearing that threshold virtually everywhere. If these national poll results are reflected on Super Tuesday March 3, when 14 states vote and 34% of all pledged delegates are awarded, Sanders’ share of delegates would far exceed his vote share.
There is one contest after Nevada before Super Tuesday: the South Carolina primary next Saturday. Biden needs a big win, but his lead over Sanders has plunged from 14 points in late January to just four points now.
Bloomberg had been gaining in the polls, at least before Wednesday’s widely criticised debate performance. However, in a direct match-up with Sanders, he got crushed by a 57-37 margin in an NBC/WSJ poll. While Bloomberg is winning the votes of those Democrats who believe only a billionaire can beat Donald Trump, most Democrats dislike giving the nomination to a billionaire.
If nobody comes near a majority of pledged delegates, there will be a contested Democratic convention in mid-July. Should this occur, it would be the first since 1952. If Bloomberg defeated Sanders at a contested convention, the Democratic party’s left would react badly to the perception of a billionaire stealing the nomination from their guy.
Assisted by the good US economy, Trump’s ratings are trending up. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval is -7.8% with polls of registered or likely voters. Trump still trails the leading Democrats in RealClearPolitics averages, with Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg leading by 4.5 points, and Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar leading by two points.