Nevada Democratic caucus: live commentary

Live commentary on today’s Nevada Democratic caucus. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

4:06pm 88% counted now, and Biden will finish second ahead of Buttigieg.  I’ve done an article for The Conversation that emphasises the differences between the county delegate count (huge win for Sanders) and the initial popular vote (far less impressive for Sanders).

9:50am Monday Still only 60% reporting.  If Nevada was close like Iowa, there’d be another stink about the slow results.

4:30pm 43% now reporting, and Sanders has 47% of county delegates, but only 34.5% of the initial alignment vote.  He has 40.3% of the vote after realignment.

4:08pm CNN has more up-to-date figures on initial and final votes.  Using CNN’s results, I calculate that Sanders has 35% of the initial vote and 40.5% of the vote after realignment with 34% in.  Those figures are not as impressive for Sanders as his share of county delegates (47%).

Once again, we’ve had a dreadfully slow caucus count.  Hopefully there’ll be more clarity tomorrow.

2:10pm And it’s suddenly jumped to 22.5% reporting, with Sanders at 34% on first alignment, 40% on final alignment and 47% of county delegates.

2:07pm With 11% reporting, the Sanders margin is smaller on the first alignment votes.  Sanders has 34% on this measure, Biden 19%, Buttigieg 16% and Warren 12%.  On popular votes after realignment, Sanders has 40%, Biden 23%, Buttigieg 17% and Warren 10%.  On county delegates, 47% Sanders, 24% Biden and 14% Buttigieg.

Sanders is being assisted in the final alignment votes by being the only candidate who exceeds the 15% threshold in the vast majority of precincts.

12:20pm With 4% reporting, the Associated Press has CALLED Nevada for Bernie Sanders.

11:18am Once again (as in New Hampshire), the AP count, used by the NY Times, is well behind the count used by the TV networks including CNN.  With 10% reporting, the CNN results give Sanders a large lead in initial votes, but there are no percentages.

11:05am As with Iowa, the counting in Nevada is SLOOOOW!!  Just 3.4% of precincts have reported their initial alignment.

9:52am With less than 3% reporting, Sanders has 44% of the initial vote, 54% of the final vote and 55% of county delegates.  The initial vote is slightly ahead of the other two measures in precincts reporting.  Still a long way to go, but it’s looking like a big win for Sanders.

8:41am With 1% reporting, Sanders has 48% of the initial alignment, 53% of the vote after candidate realignment, and 52% of the county delegates.  Biden is a distant second with 18%, 23% and 26% on these three measures respectively.

7:33am The caucuses actually began 33 minutes ago.  First results are expected by 8:30am.  Entrance polls give Sanders about 35%, with the next highest at 15%.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Nevada Democratic caucuses begin at 10am local time Saturday (5am Sunday AEDT). I am not sure when to expect results; they could come in the early morning, but may not come on Sunday at all, given the Iowa fiasco. Caucuses are managed by the party, not the state’s electoral authorities. It should be a relief that there are very few caucuses after Nevada.

Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally to all candidates who clear a 15% threshold, both within a state and Congressional District.  In the RealClearPolitics Nevada poll average, Bernie Sanders has 29.0%, Joe Biden 16.0%, Pete Buttigieg 14.0%, Elizabeth Warren 14.0% and Amy Klobuchar 10.5%. Current national polls give Sanders 28.7%, Biden 17.3%, Mike Bloomberg 15.2%, Warren 12.7%, Buttigieg 10.0% and Klobuchar 6.7%.

With these polls, Sanders is the only candidate far enough above 15% to be assured of clearing that threshold virtually everywhere. If these national poll results are reflected on Super Tuesday March 3, when 14 states vote and 34% of all pledged delegates are awarded, Sanders’ share of delegates would far exceed his vote share.

There is one contest after Nevada before Super Tuesday: the South Carolina primary next Saturday.  Biden needs a big win, but his lead over Sanders has plunged from 14 points in late January to just four points now.

Bloomberg had been gaining in the polls, at least before Wednesday’s widely criticised debate performance.  However, in a direct match-up with Sanders, he got crushed by a 57-37 margin in an NBC/WSJ poll.  While Bloomberg is winning the votes of those Democrats who believe only a billionaire can beat Donald Trump, most Democrats dislike giving the nomination to a billionaire.

If nobody comes near a majority of pledged delegates, there will be a contested Democratic convention in mid-July. Should this occur, it would be the first since 1952. If Bloomberg defeated Sanders at a contested convention, the Democratic party’s left would react badly to the perception of a billionaire stealing the nomination from their guy.

Assisted by the good US economy, Trump’s ratings are trending up.  In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval is -7.8% with polls of registered or likely voters. Trump still trails the leading Democrats in RealClearPolitics averages, with Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg leading by 4.5 points, and Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar leading by two points.

328 comments on “Nevada Democratic caucus: live commentary”

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  1. Interesting article Bellwether, thanks. But it does focus on issues that are peripheral to the Sanders campaign: international relations and anti-Semitism (which can converge when it comes to one’s attitude to Israel).

    In general, I’d say the parallels between Corbyn and Sanders far outweigh the differences.

  2. Bonza
    “Is there any comfort to be had in Sanders’ high favourability ratings, which Corbyn never had?”

    I don’t know. Personality-wise Sanders is quite likeable, whereas Corbyn came across as peevish and tetchy. But I suspect Sanders’ policies will be his undoing – too far left for middle America.

  3. I’m sure you are all too kind in your opinions of my contributions, but in any event, probably best not to get too worked up what some anonymous poster writes on a political blog. I would expect exchanges would be a bit willing, and as far as I know, any of you could be a Russian bot! Anyway, it’s all good fun, from my perspective.


    I had a similar but loss less dramatic case in which the injured partner rang the police, who attended and called an ambulance for her to attend to her obvious but minor facial injuries, then arrested her for assault of her fast talking boyfriend – she even got an AVO against her.

    The impression I got was that in disputed DV matters (as to who hit whom), police feel obliged to charge someone and the better talker is better off.

  5. Bonza, Kakuru

    Is there any comfort to be had in Sanders’ high favourability ratings, which Corbyn never had?


    Not really true, Corbyn had positive ratings as high as +17 in the aftermath of Labour’s very good 2017 General Election result, and ended 2017 at +8

  6. “I would expect exchanges would be a bit willing, and as far as I know, any of you could be a Russian bot! ”

    Nyet! Ya ne bot!

  7. So Sanders can’t beat Trump. But that tired old hack Biden can? That facile twerp Mayor Pete can? Right winger trotting out the same tired justifications to stop a real progressive from running. Guess what, I’d rather Sanders ran and lost, because Butigieg or whatever his name is would not be that different to a Republican president anyway. Sanders would at least be a forerunner for a real left wing alternative down the track, much in the same way that Clinton was for a female candidate.

  8. clem attlee

    I don’t have much love for your “It’s better to lose for the right reason than win for the wrong reason” defeatism.

  9. To the Sanders cannot beat Trump crowd. Hillary lost the 2016 election in Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Latest polls show Sanders leading Trump in these three states head to head. A long way to go I know to the nomination and November but very doable at this stage if he can keep those who voted for Hillary and flip the above

  10. Nathan Robinson has an excellent article in The Guardian:

    And for all the fear of his “radicalism,” he’s really a moderate: his signature policies are a national health insurance program, a living wage, free public higher education, and a serious green energy investment plan. It’s shocking that there is such opposition to such sensible plans. On what planet are these things so politically toxic that Democrats are afraid to run on them? Voters like these ideas, and so long as Democrats unify behind Bernie rather than continuing to try to tear him down, they will have a very good shot at defeating a radical and unhinged president like Donald Trump. The polling looks good for Bernie in November, so now we just need to get this primary over with and focus on the real fight. The other candidates had their shot: they lost. They need to accept it.

  11. Many Labor people support a green new deal. The Greens are not near Alpha Centauri, they are entangled with Labor and both parties cross fertilise each other.

  12. Falcon WA – Actually, polling in the Rust Belt suggests that any of the leading Democrats would beat Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and all of them, (including Sanders) lose in Wisconsin. It could be that Wisconsin is tending Red, following the path of Ohio and Iowa. Biden has very similar numbers to Sanders in PA and MI, with Biden +8 in PA and +4 in Michigan, and Sanders +4 & +5. Wisconsin, by contrast, has Trump up by +7 over both Biden and Sanders, and they are the best among the Dems. Obama won WI by 14% and 7%, but the margins in 2000 (D+0.2%), 2004 (D+0.4%) and 2016 (R+0.7%) have all been close. On the upside, other states are slowly trending Blue, like Georgia, Arizona and even Texas, though I suspect that only Arizona is likely to flip this year (and even then, it’s no sure thing).

  13. Clem Attlee – I suspect that in the broad we don’t agree on the viability of Sanders as a general election candidate (though naturally I will hope I am wrong about him if he ends up becoming the nominee), but I think you raise a good point on the viability of the other Democratic contenders. To my mind, they all have their flaws (which I have laid out several times previously, so I won’t bore people by doing so again), and to be honest it’s a reasonably disappointing final field, given how many put their hands up at the start. In retrospect, someone like Bullock or Harris may have been a better GE candidate than any of those remaining, but obviously they couldn’t get traction at all last year, and dropped out.

    The question remains whether Sanders flaws will be more of a liability than any of the others, but you are correct to note the lack of a perfect candidate in the field that he have before us.

  14. Hugoaugogo above, swing state polling

    The figures you quote are from the Quinnipiac polls of a couple of days ago

    YouGov released polling yesterday from the same three states showing a better picture in Wisconsin but not so good in PA

    WI : all Dems beat Trump – Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg/Biden all +2, Klobuchar +1
    MI : ditto – Sanders +7, Buttigieg +6, Biden +4, Warren/Klobuchar +3
    PA : Sanders +2 and Biden +1 beat Trump, Buttigieg/Warren/Klobuchar are tied with Trump

    538 rate Quinnipiac a B+ pollster and YouGov a B-

  15. Thanks Ray (UK)! It looks like the election will be won or lost in the Rust Belt once again, barring some unforeseen (if long predicted) move to the Dems in the Sun Belt.

  16. Bernie Sanders Dominates Three Key Battleground States In New Poll

    February 23, 2020

    After winning the popular vote in Iowa, winning the New Hampshire primary, and coasting to a commanding victory in Nevada, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has emerged as the clear front-runner in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries.

    According to a new poll from University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center, Sanders is dominant in three key battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In each of the three states, registered voters who plan to vote in the Democratic primary are more likely to choose Sanders than any other White House hopeful.

    In Michigan, the Vermont senator is in first place with 25 percent of the vote. Former Vice President Joe Biden is in a distant second, with 16 percent support. Biden is followed by billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 15 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 13 percent. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is polling at 11 percent, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at 8 percent.

    In Pennsylvania, Sanders holds a five-point lead over Biden, who is at 20 percent. Bloomberg is close behind with 19 percent. Buttigieg is polling at 12 percent, Warren at 9 percent, and Klobuchar at 5 percent.

    Sanders is virtually untouchable in Wisconsin, where he is polling at 30 percent. The rest of the field is competing for second place, with all the other candidates hovering between nine and 13 percentage points.

    In all three states, it is younger voters that are carrying Sanders to victory. Fifty-five percent of those younger than 30-years-old support him, as does 39 percent of voters ages 30-45. Among voters between the ages of 45- and 64-years-old, 21 percent support Sanders. The senator is unpopular with voters older than 65-years-old, as only 9 percent support him.

    Combining the three states, voters differ in their choices by race. Biden is the leader among black voters, and Sanders is the top choice of Latinos and white voters.

    As Barry Burden, a political science professor and director of the Elections Research Center explained, Sanders is “well positioned to pick up the lion’s share of delegates in these states unless another Democrats breaks away from the pack to challenge him.”

  17. Sanders leads Democratic field in new national poll

    February 23, 2020

    A new national poll finds Sen. Bernie Sanders is well ahead of the field of Democratic presidential candidates as the party’s nominating process nears the fourth contest of this cycle.

    Sanders, a Vermont independent, stands at 28% among those likely to vote in the Democratic primary, according to a CBS News and YouGov poll released Sunday and conducted after last week’s debate.

    Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren follows at 19% and former Vice President Joe Biden at 17%. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s support stood at 13%, while former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg was at 10%. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar was at 5% in the poll.

    The poll, which was conducted between February 20 and 22 and concluded before Sanders claimed victory in the Nevada caucuses, comes less than a week before Democratic voters in South Carolina head to the polls to participate in the state’s primary.

    There is no prior trend from CBS News and YouGov on the national Democratic race, but Warren’s 19% showing appears to be an improvement compared with other polls conducted before last week’s debate in Nevada. In an Ipsos/Reuters poll, which uses a similar online survey methodology, she stood at 9% in polling conducted from February 14 through 17.

    The poll also found that nearly two-thirds of registered voters nationwide say they think President Donald Trump probably or definitely will get reelected (65% say so, 35% say that probably or definitely will not happen), even as hypothetical matchups with the top Democratic candidates are tight regardless of who the Democratic nominee is: The margin was 3 points or less in each of six matchups tested.

    The CBS News and YouGov survey was conducted from February 20 to 22 among a sample of 10,000 registered voters. The sample includes 6,498 self-identified Democrats and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 1.2 points.

  18. I haven’t seen any mention of turnout, these are the rough numbers for info

    With 88% of precincts reporting we are at 90,000 votes cast, I reckon final turnout will be around 101,000. There are 698,000 registered Democrats in Nevada so a turnout of c. 14%

    Turnout is up from the 80,000 in 2016 but well short of the 120,000 in 2008 when Obama ran for the first time

  19. Big A Adrian:

    which then became “no way he will see out his term before he is impeached/arrested/overthrown.”

    Followed by those articles Victoria posted from rawstory on how Trump was just about to be carted off in handcuffs/removed from office every week.

  20. Kakuru:

    But I suspect Sanders’ policies will be his undoing – too far left for middle America.

    Let’s not forget that demographics are changing constantly. The people who voted for Reagan and Bush Sr., for whom Bernie’s policies may be “too left”, are now dying/about to die off in droves. It didn’t, for example, seem possible even 10 years ago that same-sex marriage would ever become a reality in countries like the US and Australia.

  21. Poll: Biden’s Lead in South Carolina Shrinks as Sanders Gains Ground

    Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to hold a lead in South Carolina, but his advantage has narrowed sharply after months in which he was ahead of the other contenders by double digits. A CBS News poll released Sunday shows Biden has the support of 28 percent of likely democratic primary voters in South Carolina, with Sanders in second place with 23 percent. That is within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. Businessman Tom Steyer has also made impressive gains in the state and is now in third place with 18 percent followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 12 percent and Pete Buttigieg with 10 percent.

    This latest poll was finished before Sanders’ commanding victory in Nevada. But still, the poll points to a much different race in the state than what it looked like only a few months ago, when Biden held a commanding 28-point lead. In early October, for example, Biden was at the top of the pack in South Carolina with 43 percent, followed by Warren with 18 percent and Sander, 16 percent. At the time, Steyer had a measly 2 percent.

    The former vice president has long had a strong advantage in South Carolina largely thanks to his support among black voters. But since the fall Biden’s support among black voters has declined 19 points. In contrast, Steyer’s support among black voters has increased sharply.

  22. It seems difficult to obtain actual results from Nevada – where their rules provide 3 different results. I’m particularly interested in the final ‘first ballot’ Popular vote breakdowns and then the adjusted popular votes.

    From what I can gather Bernie is struggling to get 35% of the popular vote. He now leads other ‘battle ground’ states with 25% or less. I can see this as a looming disaster for the party come the convention: for an insurgent non democrat like Bernie to gain acceptance by the rank and file as a whole (let alone independents) he really needs to be winning a majority of the popular vote and pledged delegates. Other ‘traditional’ (ie. genuine democrats) candidates would have the luxury of simply securing a plurality.

    I wish all the traditional candidates bare one would fuck right off asap. Then either an alternative to Bernie would win Or Bernie would win by majority vote. Either outcome would be better and acceptable than what is shaping up as a intra-party shitstorm. The democrats as a rabble have no chance of beating Trump. They’ll also will lose both houses of Congress as well. Come on Joe – fuck off. Come on lil Mike – fuck off too (although your anti-Trump ads are welcome to stay around). With those oxygen stealing distractions gone, then I reckon the Klobuchar-Warren-Buttigieg contest would sort itself out within weeks and we Democrats could get down to the main game forthwith.

  23. Policy aside, this is perhaps the biggest danger with a Sanders nomination – that other Dem candidates down ballot will seek to distance themselves from him, with the nightmare consequence that the Democrats lose the House and fail to re-take the Senate. Andrew_Earlwood might be an establishment panic-merchant at times, but his fears are not unjustified, and he is right to point to the worst-case scenario of Sanders winning a plurality of delegates (say, 40%) on the back of a series of state victories of 25-30% of the vote. I agree with him that the time is now for the likes of Klobuchar, Steyer, Gabbard and Warren to dip out of the race so that the non-Bernie choice can become clearer. If Bernie is good enough, then he’ll still win, and if the more moderate candidate wins, then Sanders was never going to get there without a divided opposition.

  24. Some wise words for moderates to ponder. Moderate Democrats lost presidential elections in 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, and 2016. Often moderates give the impression that moderate candidates are undefeated. That is not at all true.

    “If we go back to a 1972 that I remember well when George McGovern was our nominee,” he said, “we lost 49 states.”

    Twelve years later, the Democratic Party again lost 49 states when moderate Democrats nominated former Vice President Walter Mondale over the progressive Jesse Jackson. In 1984, Mondale lost five more electoral votes than McGovern—the worst Electoral College defeat of any Democrat in history. But for many ‘70s youngsters moving into middle age, for many of their political children, the loss in 1984 did not cause them to question their new doctrine of the electable moderate and un-electable progressive. They shunned the progressive Jackson again in 1988 and lost big, again.

    Moderate Democrats also lost presidential elections in 1980, 2000, 2004, and 2016. Since McGovern, moderate Democrats have a losing record in presidential elections: six losses to the five wins by Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama (who ran a more progressive primary campaign than Hillary Clinton in 2008). But this history is lost in discussions of electability. It is as if moderate nominees are undefeated. It is as if the last time a Democrat lost was when the party nominated McGovern in 1972.

    Moderate Democrats blame progressive candidates for losses, but they can’t seem to blame moderate candidates for their losses. Moderates can’t seem to reflect on the historical electability of their candidates as they implore progressives to reflect on the historical electability of their candidates. Moderates recognize how progressive candidates alienate certain voters, but they can’t seem to recognize how moderate candidates alienate certain voters. Moderates implore progressives to give moderate candidates a chance, but they can’t seem to give progressive candidates a chance.

  25. I find it encouraging that the Nevada caucus turnout was around 100,000 in total, which was up from 84,000 in 2016. That’s for a caucus too, which of course requires a bit more of an investment in time to take part in compared to a regular primary.

    I think Hispanics could hold the key to this election and may come out in massive numbers for the Dems, particularly if Bernie is the candidate. They’ve been repeatedly racially abused by Trump for the last four years which should motivate plenty to come out and vote against him. On top of that, I get the sense that they feel like they have been largely ignored and taken for granted by politicians from both sides in the past. Bernie and his team have really made a big effort to bring Hispanics into our movement and give them a voice.

  26. “Moderate Democrats blame progressive candidates for losses, but they can’t seem to blame moderate candidates for their losses.”


    So true.

  27. Warren-mentum? New Poll Shows Massachusetts Senator In SECOND Nationally, Now Beating Biden

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) stellar debate performance last Friday has earned her a much-needed bump in the national polls, putting her at second, now, behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and, for the first time, ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden, who is in third.

    The CBS/YouGov national poll, released Monday, shows Warren at 19%, trailing Sanders, who is at 28%, by nine points. More importantly, though, she’s now passed Joe Biden, who was once leading the field, by two points — still in the margin of error, but notable nonetheless.

    Axios reports that 50% of Warren’s backers returned to supporting the Massachusetts Senator after her debate performance in Nevada, last Friday, where she took aim directly at former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, torching him over allegations that he forced female employees to sign non-disclosure agreements, asking whether, if they were free to talk, those same female employees might accuse Bloomberg of having created a difficult work environment or engaged in sexual harassment — two rumors about Bloomberg that have swirled since his time in office in NYC.

    Warren, deploying her seldom-seen quick wit, accused Bloomberg of calling women ‘fat broads” and “horsed-faced lesbians.” It later turned out that both of those pejoratives originated in a book of jokes Bloomberg authored some years ago, and both made reference to members of the British royal family, not his female colleagues.

    But Warren had definitely struck a blow. On Saturday, her campaign released a statement claiming that she’d raised an astounding $14 million in the week following the New Hampshire primary, and that she’d raked in $2.8 million on Wednesday, the night of the debate itself, easily making it her best fundraising day ever, per Vox.

    “Within hours, Warren’s campaign announced they had raised more than $2.8 million on Wednesday, their best debate fundraising day of the campaign to date,” the outlet reported late last week. “During the debate, one of her staffers tweeted that the campaign had raised $425,000 in just 30 minutes. This is very good news for the Warren campaign, given that her fourth quarter fundraising numbers had fallen behind the Q4 hauls of many of her main competitors last year.”

    Over the weekend, Warren touted her momentum on the trail, telling a Seattle crowd that she felt that things were moving in the right direction, even though Warren placed a dismal fourth in the Nevada caucuses, earning just 1,300 votes across the state. She came away without a share of the state’s delegates.

    Warren is clearly hoping to stay in the race through Super Tuesday, in part because things are looking up (at least slighly) but also, perhaps, in part to deny Sanders an outright victory in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. If Sanders doesn’t end up with a large share of the delegates at play on March 3rd, under the rules of the Democratic National Convention, he cannot win the nomination outright on the convention’s first vote (a candidate needs a “clear majority” of delegates). That could make the DNC a “brokered convention,” handing the eventual nomination to nearly anyone still in the field.

    Warren has clearly targeted Bloomberg, sensing, as many Democrats do, that he’s building support for a guerilla bid for the nomination at the convention.

    The next Democratic contest is February 29th in South Carolina. Joe Biden is, currently, expected to win.

  28. Poll: Klobuchar leads in Minnesota, followed by Sanders and Warren

    Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) leads the Democratic field in her home state, followed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), according to a Minnesota Public Radio/Star Tribune Minnesota poll out Monday.

    The survey found Klobuchar led in the state with 29 percent of the vote, followed by Sanders with 23 percent and Warren with 11 percent. No other candidate polled in double digits. Twenty-one percent of voters said they remain undecided.

    “No one knows for sure what the landscape is going to even look like by the time we get to March 3,” when Minnesota votes on Super Tuesday, Democratic Farmer-Labor Party Chairman Ken Martin told MPR. “This is very fluid … every single day, every single hour, this race changes.”

    Minnesota is among the 15 states voting on Super Tuesday on March 3.

    The primary will be Minnesota’s first since 1992, with the state having held caucuses in the interim until then-Gov. Mark Dayton (D) signed a bill in 2016 reinstating primaries.

    Klobuchar, who saw renewed momentum after an unexpected third-place finish in the New Hampshire primaries, lost some ground in the Nevada caucuses, where she finished fifth. She has won her state by double digits in every Senate election since her first in 2006.

    The poll also found health care is voters’ top issue in the state, with 23 percent identifying it at the top, followed by climate and environmental issues, with 18 percent, income inequality with 14 percent, and race and police abuse issues at 8 percent.

    The survey was conducted among 500 likely Democratic voters from Feb. 17-20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

    I now see why Klobuchar went straight home after Nevada – she’s looking in the rear-vision mirror and can see the Bernie Express coming for her in her own state. Really you’d think she should be lapping the field in the state she represents as a Senator. Goes without saying that she must win Minnesota or she’s gone.

  29. Nicholas
    “Some wise words for moderates to ponder. Moderate Democrats lost presidential elections in 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, and 2016. Often moderates give the impression that moderate candidates are undefeated. ”

    Straw man. Move on.

  30. Re: Firefox @6:33am

    This is exactly why I want sleepy Joe and Lil’ Mike to fuck off right now – they are simply thieving oxygen from the big three possibilities – Warren, Buttigieg and evening Bernie. The minnows like Steyer and Klibuchar aren’t really doing much damage, but one expects they’ll drop out via natural attrition shortly after Super Tuesday. Unfortunately the ego and hubris of Joe and Mike is likely to stink up the race for a while yet. Fucking disaster.

  31. …even though Warren placed a dismal fourth in the Nevada caucuses, earning just 1,300 votes across the state.

    Apparently the Daily Wire doesn’t know the difference between County Convention Delegate and votes either. She recieved 13,438 votes across the state, 11,703 after realignment.

  32. I’ve just checked the AP Nevada caucus count which is at 100%. Is anyone in the know here able to explain why Buttigieg has 3 pledge delegates when he’s is below what I thought was the 15% threshold?

  33. AndrewEarlwood
    “This is exactly why I want sleepy Joe and Lil’ Mike to fuck off right now – ”

    Bit harsh, specially where Biden is concerned. He did a commendable job as Obama’s VP for 8 years.

  34. Biden is the first who should fuck right off Kakuru. He should never have run. He has simply used his name recognition to suppress the emergence of the next generation of potential Democrat leaders. He is, was and will always be a hopeless Presidential Candidate. He should have been satisfied with peaking as VP, where as you said, he did a commendable job … according to his lights … which are dim.

  35. I believe the threshold in Nevada is per county, not in the state at large. It’s in the primaries (as opposed to caucuses) where candidates need to get 15% statewide – though I think the exact rules and thresholds still differ a lot from state to state.

  36. President Donald Trump’s top aides faced an increasingly urgent threat Monday with potentially monumental implications: a global outbreak knocking down the U.S. economy and walloping markets in an election year, all against accusations about whether the Trump administration had mismanaged and underfunded a critical response with American lives on the line.
    its unlikely to be a laydown misere for the donald. -a.v.

  37. Biden Running in the 2016 primaries would have drastically reduced their appearance of rigged Clinton coronation, as Biden has too much popularity to kill off his campaign with lower viewership debates and endorsement swamping (such as happened to Martin O`Malley).

  38. from the comments at politico :-
    John D Hudson
    Can Americans without relevant health insurance have flu symptoms checked without charge?

    Thomas Mosher

    Valerie Higbie
    A young man back from China had a high fever and went to hospital to get checked. He ended up with a 3,200 bill. He has substandard insurance. Article in Miami Herald today!
    Hospitals and insurance are salivating on what kind of $ they can make out of this pandemic!

    medicare for all is a national security issue. -a.v.

  39. If there was ever a time for Biden for run, it was 2016. He would have been able leverage Obama’s popularity more easily than Clinton could in ’16 or he can now in 2020, presenting his run as a natural continuation of the Obama administration, and at 74 would have still been too old, but only just. Now he’s nearly 80 and has been a private citizen for three years, and it shows.

  40. Asha Leu : “63% of americams don’t have enough savings to cover a $500.00 emergency”. that was four years ago. do you thinks its gotten better since then? i don’t.
    medicare for all doesn’t look so stupid now. looking more & more like one of the no brainer foundations of homeland security. -regards, a.v.

  41. I have zero objections to Medicare for All. I do, however, have concerns about what the broader US electorate will think of private insurance being stripped from those who want it.

    It will be interesting to see how Coronavirus concerns will play into the health debate in the States.

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