Essential Research leadership ratings

Essential’s latest leadership ratings find Scott Morrison continuing to struggle, despite being back to level pegging on preferred prime minister.

The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.

Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,911 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

  1. Confessions says: Friday, February 14, 2020 at 9:31 am

    phoenixRed:

    This piqued my interest. What chances are there that the sentencing judge will ignore the sentence recommended from prosecutors?

    *******************************************************

    From what I have read Judge Amy Berman Jackson is a tough cookie – who will not have been impressed or intimidated by Stone and his court antics – and the bullseye he placed on her , along with Barr and Trumps public criticism – many seem to believe that she will give Stone the exact same prison sentence that she was always planning to give him

  2. jenauthor

    Thanks for the compliment!!

    BTW, I’m going to try again with the Keto diet. I think the medication I’m on is interfering with its success, but I’m going to persevere for a while. 🙂

  3. Ari Melber‏Verified account @AriMelber

    Shorter Bill Barr:

    I stand by intervening to help a convicted Trump adviser, but I wish Trump did not admit what we are doing on Twitter

  4. Simon Katich

    Yes, there’s an outage at this location.
    It is affecting your internet service.
    We’re working to maintain the infrastructure that connects you to the internet
    NBN internet
    Internet Service is disruptedInternet Service is disrupted
    Services should be restored:

    Within 1 dayLast updated 9:47am
    Cause:
    Under InvestigationUnder Investigation

  5. Confessions @ #1604 Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 9:40 am

    Televangelists have jumped on the coronavirus thing, one claiming he’s found a cure. All for a price of course 😆

    NowThis@nowthisnews
    ·
    26m
    American televangelist Jim Bakker is selling a liquid that allegedly ‘kills’ the coronavirus for $300

    https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1228079651655782400

    It proves there is no God if that corrupt grub is still around in Televangelism, almost literally selling snake oil to people!

  6. phoenixRed:

    My first thought after the entire prosecution team resigned was that Stone would be pardoned, but not before the election which would look too dodgy, even by Trump’s standards.

    But if Trump tried all he could to get a reduced sentence for Stone, yet the judge goes with the original recommended sentence, that pardon could come even before the election.

  7. Confessions @ #1612 Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 9:50 am

    phoenixRed:

    My first thought after the entire prosecution team resigned was that Stone would be pardoned, but not before the election which would look too dodgy, even by Trump’s standards.

    But if Trump tried all he could to get a reduced sentence for Stone, yet the judge goes with the original recommended sentence, that pardon could come even before the election.

    Because the polling has already been done on that kind of scenario and MAGA idiots said they don’t care, they’ll still vote for Trump no matter what he does.

  8. Mowing break.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/a-change-in-the-weather/news-story/2716a8a697549c6a087fffd18864895b

    When the start of potentially drought-breaking rains finally came this month they were not predicted by the experts — but they should not have been a total ­surprise.

    The bushfires that blazed across the landscape from November last year may well come to be seen in retrospect as the final act in a set of weather conditions that parched the continent and scorched the earth.

    After years of below-average rainfall, the end of last year saw two systems wring the last gasp from a bone-dry land.
    Read Next

    Thousands in dark over power fix
    Lachlan Moffet Gray

    To the west, the Indian Ocean Dipole was in extreme territory. The IOD is the difference in ocean temperatures between the west and east tropical Indian Ocean. In a positive phase the IOD can shift moisture towards or away from Australia towards Africa. A positive IOD in 1982 coupled with an El Nino weather system in the ­Pacific produced southeast Australia’s driest year on record.

    Most of the article is a mishmash of roundabout BS and I believe that the BOM updated the forcaste shown in the picture above.

    I would be pleased if those who know stuff would comment on this item.

    Thank you. 🥀 🌺

  9. BK
    with cause unknown the expected restoration time is suspect.

    I know there is an outage in Adelaide.

    Are you connecting through the new tower (wifi)?

  10. SK
    Yes I have been on fixed wireless for a couple of years and am quite happy with it. I get download speeds of between 35 and 55 Mbps and 6 Mbps up.
    Things haven’t been the same here with Tesltra mobile since the fire though.

  11. Yep.

    Susan Hennessey
    @Susan_Hennessey
    ·
    44m
    The irony is that Barr seems to have done this in order to preempt Trump pardoning Stone which would have causes massive blowback at DOJ. But instead he overplayed his hand and it ended up being even worse for Barr than a pardon (which is all Trump) would have.

  12. Taylormade
    That must explain why Brighton is a marginal seat.

    Werribee isn’t as safe as it looks, there are Liberal areas around Point Cook and during the 1990s the Liberals came close until they purposed a toxic dump. Werribee type areas in Sydney tend to swing between the ALP and Libs.

  13. One of the really, really good things about the WTP is the very large numbers of some species of birds.

    One of the notable features of the Anthropocene Extinction Event is that some species that formerly occurred in very large numbers now occur in small numbers.

  14. Things haven’t been the same her with Tesltra mobile since the fire though.

    I wonder why. Did the fire damage the tower shed – Stop gap replacements? Or something upstream?

  15. Lizzie – might take a couple of weeks before you get into the swing of it.

    To stop the keto flu in. The first week or so – try getting some MCT oil (not expensive from health food stores) and take a teaspoon a couple of times a day (is tasteless and can be put on a salad or in coffee) … that will stop the brain fog and muscle discomfort as you’re switching from using sugar to ketones as main fuel source.

    If you want to get more info on it – check out Dr Annette Bosworth’s youtube channel – she has posts on how to use in keto and tips for keto adjustments.

    Anecdotally: I can happily say I’m am off every dr prescribed medication I was on … except thyroid med (as mine has been removed). My latest bloods were all perfect including liver function (which had been a little unhappy for years because of fatty liver … but all fixed now). I also do not need painkillers … which for many years I ate like lollies because of back issues – but keto has fixed the inflammation there too.

  16. Rick Wilson:
    ‘ Attorney General Bill Barr is doing his best Deputy Dog routine for the president’

    I don’t know about Deputy Dawg,

    More like Droopy:

    🙂

  17. jenauthor

    Thank you. As I have virtually given up sugar I didn’t have any “flu effects” last time, but quickly fell down to a plateau of weight which I haven’t been able to break. I suspect it may be the cortisone and other rheumatoid medics that don’t help.

  18. BW
    I have a 30x30m area of undeveloped land next to my wood pile. It is basically cut and fill from the house build that I havent yet landscaped… partly to see what natives would come up from the seed stock (the area was weed invested once bushland). Whilst native grasses have popped up, and quite a few pioneering native bushes as well as the odd stringybarks/candlebarks, a lot of pioneering weeds (dandelion mainly) have also quickly come in. It looks pretty messy.

    Yesterday I noticed our cats on the deck that overlooks the area were crying out in frustration. About 30-40 birds (at least 7 species) were foraging in the area. From finches, to flycatchers, tree climbers (on the woodpile), parrots, thornbills…

    Mrs Katich once wrote an article suggesting peeps try not to make their native gardens neat and tidy. Make it messy to encourage the birds.

  19. MB

    Werribee isn’t as safe as it looks

    Indeed. I posted to that effect last night. The changing demographics include rising numbers of those aspirationatal voters who are wooed by both major parties.

  20. KayJay @ #1615 Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 6:56 am

    Mowing break.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/a-change-in-the-weather/news-story/2716a8a697549c6a087fffd18864895b

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    When the start of potentially drought-breaking rains finally came this month they were not predicted by the experts — but they should not have been a total ­surprise.

    The bushfires that blazed across the landscape from November last year may well come to be seen in retrospect as the final act in a set of weather conditions that parched the continent and scorched the earth.

    After years of below-average rainfall, the end of last year saw two systems wring the last gasp from a bone-dry land.
    Read Next

    Thousands in dark over power fix
    Lachlan Moffet Gray

    To the west, the Indian Ocean Dipole was in extreme territory. The IOD is the difference in ocean temperatures between the west and east tropical Indian Ocean. In a positive phase the IOD can shift moisture towards or away from Australia towards Africa. A positive IOD in 1982 coupled with an El Nino weather system in the ­Pacific produced southeast Australia’s driest year on record.

    Most of the article is a mishmash of roundabout BS and I believe that the BOM updated the forcaste shown in the picture above.

    I would be pleased if those who know stuff would comment on this item.

    Thank you. 🥀 🌺

    Well the forecast map shows that most of Australia is a greater than 50% chance of receiving above the median rainfall for Feb-April.

    The second map only shows rainfall received in a single week with no reference how these amounts stacked up against the median.

    So it is impossible to completely compare the two as they represent different things, but the forecast is saying above average rainfall is more likely than not for most of the continent.

    The only real anomaly seems to be the rain received in SE Qld-NSW border region where the forecast was as low as 30%, but there is no indication how that amount compares with the 3 month median and there is still 2 1/2 months to run.

    Just some initial observations. 🙂

  21. SK

    Mrs Katich once wrote an article suggesting peeps try not to make their native gardens neat and tidy. Make it messy to encourage the birds.

    That’s what we have done in our suburban garden to the chagrin of neighbours on one side. Their feedback is wtte it’s a disgrace and looks like a rental.

  22. SK
    No idea. Sorry.

    Considering what the area has been through, the telcos should be putting in to make your comms work. Complain to your splendid MP. And to Josh (are u in Heysen?). I bump into Josh almost weekly, I will chew his ear.

    I say this because my profession and us as a company are putting in to help fire affected communities. SA peeps in general are trying to help (I heard Crush festival was a crush with all the flats dwellers coming up to help out with their dollars). Telcos can be blood sucking scum at times and need a kick in the right direction.

  23. Starting to witness some of the precursors of The Handmaid’s Tale fictional Gilead in Trump’s America. I hope he’s not using it’s political structure as a template.

  24. I’m on fixed wireless and ca’t get more then 25mps how on earther do you manage 55?
    ___
    mundo
    I am quite close to the tower with unimpeded line of sight and on a 50Mbps plan.

  25. That’s what we have done in our suburban garden to the chagrin of neighbours on one side.

    Our neighbours are very understanding. We live in the dress circle – I was worried. But after a few long nights on the turps with them and they seem OK with it. It is mostly screened from the road now. And I am getting onto the blackberries and gorse down further (although peeps are pretty happy with my blackberries atm!)

    My only problem is Council. We have had words.

  26. KayJay @ #1363 Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 8:56 am

    It’s basically impossible to conclude anything by just looking at those graphics.

    The first is showing a percentage prediction that a given area will exceed its median rainfaill across Feb/March/April. And notably everything that’s colored white on that map indicates a ~50% chance rather than a 0% chance. So with the exception of SE QLD the map is saying that most of Australia is predicted to get around the normal amount of rainfall or better.

    The second map shows rainfall totals from Feb 5 to Feb 12. The Eastern coastline has indeed received quite a lot of rain during this time. This is good, but it doesn’t prove any part of the first map wrong by itself. It can’t because:

    – The prediction is about Feb to April, not one week in Feb
    – The prediction wasn’t saying it will/won’t rain, it was saying it will rain more/less than normal
    – Feb to April is the typical rainy season for the places that just got a lot of rain, so the normal/median amount of rain is likely high
    – There’s no map of how the rainfall received compares to median rainfall in each area

    In short, the article calling the predictions wrong is premature (unless the weekly rainfall total in SE QLD has already beaten the Feb-April average, which may be possible but is not established by the article!). And the graphics are misleading. Probably deliberately.

  27. I am quite close to the tower with unimpeded line of sight and on a 50Mbps plan.

    IIRC, there was a lot of kickback from some peeps about the approvals for that tower. There was talk of making sure the tower was stacked with sweeteners – including underground power. I wasnt at the final hearing… but I know the guy from the engineering consultancy company who managed the build and planning approvals. I can ask.

  28. Labor MPs say Albanese was furious with them over pro-coal dinner

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mps-say-albanese-was-furious-with-them-over-pro-coal-dinner-20200213-p540nv.html

    The emergence of a pro-coal faction within federal Labor ranks has again exposed divisions within the Opposition over climate policy, as a newly formed “Otis Group” pushes Mr Albanese to publicly strengthen his support for the domestic coal industry.

    Senior Labor sources told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald Mr Albanese was angry at media reports a group of 20, including nine shadow ministers, were meeting regularly to raise concerns at the policy direction of the party.

    But one Labor figure close to Mr Albanese said it has “embarassed” the group involved and strengthened his position within caucus. “He’s not angry,” the source said. “Just disappointed”.
    :::
    Several MPs said they had been “chastised” by either Mr Albanese or his allies after Ten News revealed they had dined regularly with colleagues at Canberra’s Otis restaurant to discuss its climate and resources policy.
    :::
    But members of the group hosed down any direct threat to Mr Albanese’s leadership, suggesting they were “trying to help him by pushing for a centrist policy”.
    :::
    A Queensland MP, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity, said there were concerns among the group that Mr Albanese had often failed to support new domestic coal mines or privately funded coal-fired power stations when asked in interviews or at press conferences.

  29. lizzie @ #1628 Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 10:22 am

    jenauthor

    Thank you. As I have virtually given up sugar I didn’t have any “flu effects” last time, but quickly fell down to a plateau of weight which I haven’t been able to break. I suspect it may be the cortisone and other rheumatoid medics that don’t help.

    lizzie,
    It may be as simple as Post Menopausal weight gain. Your body is moving on from the young and lithe days to the, you don’t need to attract a mate anymore days. So it has taken away the hormones that helped you be schmexy, and so here you, and I, are. Cuddly. 🙂

  30. Good to hear Lizzie – so basically you might just need some minor adjustments or narrowing your daily feeding window to extend your fast time to kick you off the plateau.

    I had a similar effect a few years ago before the whole thing kicked in again when I made some minor adjustments.

    Email me privately if you want to discuss further – I might be able to point you to some video lectures that can give you some options to suit your lifestyle.

    Cheers

  31. SK
    If you clear or burn an area (or have a tree fall over in the forest) or get some cyclone destruction, whatever, you basically create ground zero with lots of nutrients, moisture and light freed up.
    Weedy species (by growth form) are opportunistic grabbers of all of the above.
    But vegetation response to ground zero is typically graduated over time.
    First responders to ground zero tend to be ‘weedy’. (wattles are early weedy responders in Mountain Ash forests).
    The weedy species tend to generate lots of seeds/sap/fruits and to be shorter lived.
    They therefore represent a windfall but limited opportunity for birds (and insects).
    Over time, if there are no further major perturbations, weeds are replaced by longer-lived species often in some sort of ‘organized’ succession. The later stages, for example old growth Mountain Ash forests, tend to be light, moisture and nutrient hoggers. They also come with a suite of old growth specialist birds, insects, animals that depend on the existence of old growth.
    Meanwhile, if you like plenty of action at or below eye level, churn up half you weed field every year and enjoy.
    Note that we have imported thousands of weedy species from o/s and these can often outcompete native weeds.

  32. Kayjay

    I’m on the far south coast NSW and I find the BoM forecasting here to be often quite wayward. My suspicion is that they rely on picking data from too many models. Also, I’m midway between two landbased weather stations and I think our local forecast is based on some vague extrapolation of the two. During the recent hair-raising fires the weather info people really needed was accurate wind and temperature predictions but the BoM consistently failed to deliver on both. I was eventually directed towards Windy.com, which offers a couple of different models the best of which seems to be the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) which covers the entire globe and re-models every 12 hours. I went outside on numerous occasions, particularly on evacuation days, to find their model closely reflecting what I was seeing on the ground while the info on the BoM app was sometimes wildly off. BoM also seems on the high side with their rain predictions over the last three months. I guess it doesn’t matter if they don’t get things right in ‘normal’ times but for organisations like the RFS to make best-practice decisions it needs to be tightened up. Hopefully any inquiry will address this along with the woeful resilience of roads, mobile phone and the apparently gold-plate power infrastructure that we’ve been paying so dearly for.

  33. C@t

    I don’t so much mind being cuddly, but having to buy new clothes because I can’t get into my old favourites is a bugger. And I saw myself nude in the mirror last night (hot weather, y’see), which has what has shocked me into action!

    zoomster

    The thing which seems to have worked for several of my friends is the 5-2 fasting diet, which I would find roooolly difficult, especially when I can’t sleep at night. I’m hoping that a visit into keto might bring my weight down to a new base that can be sustained with care. 🙂

  34. Zoomster – if you read the fine print, you’ll see that what was measured was NOT a keto diet. It still had a high level of carbs in comparison the a Keto diet.

    I saw that headline too, and read about it – but greater minds (i.e. drs and scientists who do the research) than mine analysed the criteria they used in that study — and what they called low carb wasn’t in any way Keto.

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