Essential Research leadership ratings

Essential’s latest leadership ratings find Scott Morrison continuing to struggle, despite being back to level pegging on preferred prime minister.

The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.

Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,911 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

  1. If you clear or burn an area (or have a tree fall over in the forest) or get some cyclone destruction, whatever, you basically create ground zero with lots of nutrients, moisture and light freed up.

    Thanks BW.
    Note that in this instance we have a removal of nutrients which is important. I think we discussed previously efforts in Werribee (and other places) to scrape off the topsoil to remove weed seed bank and excess nutrients. This has certainly worked here at my place where the pioneering native plants havent been seen in the area for decades. And the candlebarks are a godsend as the parent trees are almost all dead. And when they fall, the blackberry/ivy/holly/gorse takes over before the native pioneers can get in.

    I have tried burn off. But it is always too wet. I suspect I would have the same problem with weeds.

    As I dont like spraying glyphosate (I will drill and fill, or cut and paint), scraping seems to be the way.

  2. Lizzie – one place you might look for help is http://www.lowcarbdoctors.com.au

    These doctors are local to me but lecture around the world on the science of metabolism and low carb. Good, clear concise info in the form of videos.

    (I actually saw one of these drs for my shoulder a few years ago, not realising he was into low carb science).

  3. SK

    And I am getting onto the blackberries and gorse down further (although peeps are pretty happy with my blackberries atm!)

    My only problem is Council. We have had words.

    Mmmm blackberries. Can’t beat them fresh picked. They make THE best jam in the world. A ‘noxious weed’ but every farm out our way had patches that were permanently ‘accidentally’ missed during any eradication work 🙂

  4. pica

    No, not even a twitch (a fan-tailed cuckoo survived after twitching and then a long rest late week). They hit with a helluva bang. Instant death, I think. I always feel so guilty.

  5. lizzie

    Nutritionists – the real ones – constantly advise that the route to good health is the old boring one – eat plenty of fruit and veggies, less meat, etc.

    Fasting diets seem to be more about the feeling that we need to punish ourselves through deprivation.

    And, of course, despite the fact we’re all living much longer than we did when it wasn’t around, ‘modern medicine’ is somehow dodgy, whereas miracle cures (particularly ones which involve making us feel a little guilty about life in general) must be the go.

    What works brilliantly for one person mightn’t for another.

    And, of course, people, particularly in Western society, who are concerned enough about their health to adopt a particular regime are probably doing other things with their lifestyle as well (so vegetarians in Western cultures are more likely, for example, to be bike riders or joggers – the health results can’t just be credited to the vegetables).

    It always gets back to, particularly for those of us on medications — don’t make any changes to your diet without having a chat to your doctor first.

  6. poroti

    One of my frustrations atm with lack of mobility – it’s blackberry picking season!!

    True story – I once gave Steve Bracks two bottles of my blackberry jam and he then gave our council $4 million.

    Don’t tell me correlation is not causation.

  7. jenauthor

    From your previous info, and finding a few other references, plus trying a bit of fasting, I think I’ll do better this time. I note that the article does mention a higher carb than 20g.

    I have frequent blood tests and am confident that liver and kidneys are OK. If only I didn’t enjoy bread and butter so much!!!

  8. a r
    Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 10:38 am
    Comment #1639

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 10:30 am
    Comment #1632

    Bellwether
    Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 10:53 am
    Comment #1647

    Thanks for your information re
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/a-change-in-the-weather/news-story/2716a8a697549c6a087fffd18864895b
    item

    I think its part of the grand plan to denigrate the BOM and the ABC and wait for it

    The projected (dream a little dream with me) satellite(s) to assist with forecasting and fire coverage I would hope to be a huge benefit.

    Will I live long enough to see the huge funding for such satellites, water bombers, new improved equipment, fire truck etc – prolly not.. I will pray that Loki works against the current Federal Government …….

    Happy 14th February everybody. 😍

  9. @RonniSalt
    ·
    8m
    I have a deep uneasy feeling that just like Barnaby – no such report exists.

    We will see the same Scott Morrison fighting tooth and nail not to show the “report” to anybody.

    Because it’s not there.

    #Gaetjens #sportsrorts

  10. There is an AFR article on the lack of progress, and the shedding of charges, in the contempt proceedings against media outlets for intimating stuff about Pell.

    The prosecution are complaining about the defence not co-operating.

    Well may the charges continued to be shedded and progress stalled so the ill-conceived cases fall over.

  11. zoomster @ #1660 Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 8:06 am

    poroti

    One of my frustrations atm with lack of mobility – it’s blackberry picking season!!

    True story – I once gave Steve Bracks two bottles of my blackberry jam and he then gave our council $4 million.

    Don’t tell me correlation is not causation.

    Was it for a blackberry eradication programme?

    Sorry, too tempting!! 🙂

  12. Lizzie, If you go to the dietdr.com website, there is a recipe for ‘the keto bread’ which are bread rolls that are just like wholemeal bread rolls (though I adapted the recipe – extra water and a touch more baking powder).

    Email me and I can send you the recipe! It is easy to make and I eat a roll (or sometimes 2) a day and it doesn’t take me over net 20g

  13. zoomster

    For several years I have had a mobility problem which means that even a short brisk walk is out of the question, so all I have left is diet. Eating fruit always puts on weight, too, although I love the soft fruit season. Also – all the women on my father’s side of the family were plump and cuddly as they matured. 😆

  14. Zoomster – you are correct that what works for one, might not work for everyone.

    But most current nutritionist are changing their attitude to low carb — read up-to-date literature and you will find the world is changing.

    The idea that we must have multitude servings of grains/fruit/veg daily – most of which have been processed or modified to enhance sweetness etc. is primarily responsible for the explosion type 2 diabetes in the western world.

    If ‘westerners’ ate real food, like in the 1950s when there was almost no heart disease and no type 2 diabetes … things might be different. But few foods today are unprocessed, and prepackaged food – even bread – have hidden crap that people don’t realise they’re eating.

    You can be a keto-vegetarian, by the way — it is just difficult because of the volume of food required to gain the minimum nutrition needed.

  15. Zoomster
    “One of my frustrations atm with lack of mobility – it’s blackberry picking season!!
    True story – I once gave Steve Bracks two bottles of my blackberry jam and he then gave our council $4 million.”

    First there was sports rorts, now there’s jam scams
    🙂
    Cheers

  16. lizzie

    Well, my Lithuanian female relatives were once described by my husband as ‘potato people’ and I can’t say the Aussie side is much better.

    They all lived to be in their 80s, however, in times and places where that was exceptional.

    All I can add is that the advice from nutritionists is that, once you reach a Certain Age, dieting is more likely to have adverse impacts; you are better off being overweight.

    ** Apparently my hip configuration, which is giving me so much trouble, is rare in most Western societies, but is common in the Baltic area. My physio tells me this makes people from the region good weight lifters – I obviously missed my calling!

  17. Lizzie – which recipe was it – the ones that are dark looking rolls?

    There are a few secrets to making it right … as I said – if you want to, email me.

    And you’re right – fruit is poison for me. Technically I could say I am carbohydrate intolerant. But for 5 years now I have been on this regime and though my gp’s response was initially sceptical, she now says – keep doing what you’re doing.

    I don’t eat red meat – mainly fish, a little chook and eggs/dairy for protein. My diet is 75% fat – which might shock some people, but my body works like clockwork and is disease free … so it definitely suits my metabolism!

  18. zoomster

    Oh dear! The weight of genetics on your shoulders (hips).
    I come from a line of Devonshire farmers who all ate butter and fresh cream!

  19. jen

    ‘If ‘westerners’ ate real food, like in the 1950s when there was almost no heart disease and no type 2 diabetes …’

    At a time when life expectancy was much much lower – and these are diseases of old age.

    We’re actually in a new era now, when people are living far longer than their ‘normal’ lifespan. Evolution didn’t expect us to get this far, and evolutionary pressures are (to some extent) less relevant once you’re beyond reproductive age (a disease which only develops in humans once they’re reproduced is less likely to be selected out).

    So we’re experiencing now, as common events, diseases which not long ago scarcely existed, simply because they’re diseases of old age, and more of us are living long enough to increase their incidence.

  20. The thing is Zoomster – though people call it a diet, it isn’t a restrictive diet in terms of calories (though I must say you tend to eat less naturally because you’re more satisfied).

    The intermittent fasting does not restrict calories either – it just makes the time window when you eat narrower. E.g. I don’t eat breakfast several days a week – but beyond that I don’t often ‘fast’.

    I eat plenty of leafy greens & cauliflower. I eat lots of nuts. But I don’t eat starchy or sugary vegetables, or rice/pasta/grains. By doing this I resolved my IBS -as well as got my blood sugar under control.

    The idea is NOT to restrict volumes – it is to keep insulin levels down.

  21. lizzie

    My father was a bit puzzled when he came to Australia to discover that salads were regard as a diet food.

    My grandmother had only eaten salads when she wanted to put on weight (Lithuanians like their women chubby).

    The difference was that her salad dressings included lots of cream.

    She lived to be in her eighties, in Soviet controlled Lithuania, so she did something right.

  22. jen

    Yeah, I don’t get the ‘grains are bad’ attitude some have. We’ve been eating grains since we crawled out of the primeval swamp. They’re staple foods across all cultures (as indeed are starchy vegetables – as ‘Dark Emu’ makes clear).

    A regime which excludes grains is thus fairly unnatural.

  23. Turns out a child with crayons might have done a better job than some of the media reporting on a University of Southampton population study that identified cities at high risk from the spread of the coronavirus.

    “This map shows the movement of 60,000 of the estimated 5 million people who got out of the Chinese city of Wuhan before it was placed into the lockdown,” Armytage said. “It shows that they have travelled to all parts of the globe.”

    Only it didn’t. For one thing, most of the traffic was between London and New York, not Wuhan.

    What the scary red map actually showed was the pattern of global air traffic back in 2010.

    Southampton population scientist Prof Andrew Tatem, the author of the coronavirus spread study, told Weekly Beast the map used on Sunrise came from a scientific paper he wrote in 2014 – but was not part of the latest study.

    It was used to illustrate the extent of global connectivity and mobility through air travel.

    But not all the blame for the misinformation can be laid at the feet of Sunrise. The map was posted on Twitter by Tatem’s World Population Project, although it has now been deleted.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/feb/14/sunrise-wuhan-travellers-coronoavirus-news-corp-miranda-devine

  24. This week’s events — the resignation of Llew O’Brien from the Nationals, the hugely embarrassing defection of several of their MPs in a House of Representatives vote which made O’Brien deputy speaker, and the continued public positioning by Barnaby Joyce and his campaign manager, Matt Canavan — indicate the trouble will continue.

    On any reckoning, the duo of Joyce and Canavan, a former deputy prime minister and an articulate former cabinet minister, can land some hefty punches from the backbench.

    Three possibilities lie ahead: Michael McCormack remaining leader of a split, dysfunctional party; Joyce having a second, and successful, tilt; David Littleproud emerging as a compromise.

    McCormack is paddling desperately but his position looks increasingly unsafe.

    His post-ballot reshuffle — a blatant jobs-in-return-for-votes exercise — has given the Joyce camp new grounds for stirring.

    But Morrison is impotent in the crisis.

    He has no formal role in the Nationals’ affairs, and he does not appear to carry informal influence with them, especially since his own standing has been reduced post bushfires.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-14/nationals-leadership-crisis-problem-for-scott-morrison/11964790

  25. Gladys Liu and David Alexander both agree there’s a drop in patronage in “Chinese businesses”, and that most of it is Chinese boycotting the Chinese.

    Which is logical, as most customers of Chinese businesses ARE Chinese, not Aussie racists looking to put the boot in. Chinese people in Australia apparently have just as much trouble identifying the proverbial 3rd generation Chinese-Australian person who’s never been to China from the recently arrived (or returned) traveller fresh off the plane from Wuhan or other mainland Chinese city. It seems there are more “racists” of Chinese extraction than come from the ranks of Aussie rednecks.

    Liu and Alexander say the motivations behind the drops in patronage are irrational. They urge Chinese customers to return to predominantly Chinese commerce centres like Box Hill and Eastwood. There is no problem here with COVID-19, they assure us, so mingling where even Chinese customers fear to tread is healthy. Presumably Liu and Alexander are also part-time infectious diseases experts.

    But which is the chicken and which is the egg?

    Do we have no COVID-19 outbreak here because Australia’s just sorta healthier than mainland China? Or is it because we have, if belatedly, imposed bans on travellers from those parts, and a period of medical isolation on Australian citizens returning from them?

    Or a bit of both?

    Last I heard there are no Australian wild animal markets supplying the Chinese restaurant trade here. It’s difficult to purchase a fresh bat, or a plump civet cat, a tasty snake or a delicious live koala straight out of a cage down an Eastwood back alley. Multiculturalism does have its limits.

    Australia doesn’t see many cases of swine flu or bird flu either, even in swine and birds, much less humans. We have strict, if imperfect, health regulations concerning such things. Any rare outbreaks are dealt with extremely quickly.

    And apart from anti-vaxxers, we tend not to take too much notice of voodoo doctors peddling “traditional” medicines like powdered rhino horn, ground tiger bones, dried dog penises or tea made from an infusion of saola testicles. Anti-voodoo mindsets also help with non China-originating diseases like Ebola (should it ever reach our shores after, once again, African village witch doctors fail to stop it with magic spells and bitter, if ineffectual, traditional potions). There’s a lot to be said for Western medicine, boring and non-exotic as it is.

    So, if we’re not just naturally superior to the Chinese (which for the Racist Detection Squad here, we are not), we seem to look after our health a little better than locking up doctors, sealing off entire blocks of apartments and falsifying figures to avoid losing face can accomplish.

    Let’s hope such drastic actions are never needed here. One way to avoid the need for them is to insert a little more common sense and a little less sanctimonious virtue signalling into our day to day affairs.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gladys-liu-s-message-for-australia-don-t-be-scared-20200213-p540ij.html

  26. The story is, I think, that Jenny Morrison’s best friend is being employed to keep her company because she gets “sad and lonely” (paper talk) alone in Kirribilli. An unanswered question, of course, is why not stay in their own home, or accompany Morrison to Canberra where the Lodge is now fit for habitation.

    @RonniSalt
    ·
    46m

    I don’t give a hoot if her husband is manning the Starship Enterprise.

    I don’t pay my taxes for his wife’s best friend to get nearly $100K a year to play tea cups with her while thousands of our disabled pensioners are robbed of basic needs & our aged citizens get fed spam.

  27. Three possibilities lie ahead: Michael McCormack remaining leader of a split, dysfunctional party; Joyce having a second, and successful, tilt; David Littleproud emerging as a compromise.

    This is what I think will happen, maybe with Caravan as Deputy Leader. No Barnaby but 2 former Barnaby staffers as leader and deputy.

    Littleproud is one of those handsone John Anderson types so Morrison won’t mind either. 🙂

  28. lizzie @ #1689 Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 12:09 pm

    The story is, I think, that Jenny Morrison’s best friend is being employed to keep her company because she gets “sad and lonely” (paper talk) alone in Kirribilli. An unanswered question, of course, is why not stay in their own home, or accompany Morrison to Canberra where the Lodge is now fit for habitation.

    @RonniSalt
    ·
    46m

    I don’t give a hoot if her husband is manning the Starship Enterprise.

    I don’t pay my taxes for his wife’s best friend to get nearly $100K a year to play tea cups with her while thousands of our disabled pensioners are robbed of basic needs & our aged citizens get fed spam.

    Why doesn’t she just do what other lonely mums do and join the P&C of her kids’ school! Or volunteer. Jeez she must be lazy. Mentally and physically, if she can’t come up with something to do with her spare time. Join the local tennis club! I can think of a million things.

  29. Interesting prediction from Dublin.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1115174-lowry-mcdonald/

    The Dáil meets 10 days after an election and elects the Taoiseach, who must have an absolute majority but abstentions are allowed.
    The prediction is FG and FF will abstain and Mary Lou McDonald will become the first SF head of government since Arthur Griffiths in 1922. She will come back to the Dáil with a government based on weak coalition which will immediately face no confidence. The President will refuse a dissolution and a FF/FG/Green grand coalition will reluctantly form. (The president has an absolute right to decide this without counsel from any party – if he decided for a dissolution the situation would become very fluid indeed)
    The Civil War parties will remain in power but will look good because they gave SF a chance to govern and it bombed (sorry) it.

  30. shellbell
    The defence not co-operating reminded me of this golden oldie:

    ‘Three guys are about to be executed.

    One’s a lawyer, one’s a priest, and one’s an engineer.

    They bring out the lawyer first, put him under the guillotine, and pull the lever, but the blade gets stuck halfway down. The lawyer goes, “Ah-ha! By pulling the lever, you have technically carried out the execution, which according to the sentence you can only do once. Trying again would constitute double jeopardy, which is unconstitutional. You have to let me go.” Intimidated by this, the executioner frees him.

    They bring out the priest next, put him under the guillotine. Again the blade gets stuck. The priest cries, “A miracle! God has reached down and spared my life. This is a sign that I am under His protection. You must free me at once, or incur the divine wrath.” The executioner, a simple but God-fearing man, lets him go.

    Finally they bring out the engineer. The executioner pulls the lever once again, and once again the blade stops halfway down. The engineer turns on his back and stares up at the guillotine, muttering under his breath. After a minute he calls the executioner over, points up at the mechanism, and says, “Well, there’s your problem right there…”‘

  31. C@tmomma @ #1440 Friday, February 14th, 2020 – 11:14 am

    Wouldn’t you hate to be the people in the cabins with no windows confined to the cruise ship on Sydney Harbour!?!

    More than that, won’t people hate being quarantined on a giant viral incubator with a contagious virus because the local health authorities are either too stupid to understand that cruise ships suck for stopping the spread of contagious diseases or too scared and indifferent towards your health to attempt a more effective quarantine on land?

  32. Well, after automation of the mines, let’s move on to the fields that haven’t been dug up for minerals:

    A Growing Presence on the Farm: Robots
    A new generation of autonomous robots is helping plant breeders shape the crops of tomorrow.

    FARMER CITY, Illinois — In a research field off Highway 54 last autumn, corn stalks shimmered in rows 40-feet deep. Girish Chowdhary, an agricultural engineer at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, bent to place a small white robot at the edge of a row marked 103. The robot, named TerraSentia, resembled a souped up version of a lawn mower, with all-terrain wheels and a high-resolution camera on each side.

    In much the same way that self-driving cars “see” their surroundings, TerraSentia navigates a field by sending out thousands of laser pulses to scan its environment. A few clicks on a tablet were all that were needed to orient the robot at the start of the row before it took off, squeaking slightly as it drove over ruts in the field.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/science/farm-agriculture-robots.html

  33. I am reminded that Michael Collins was a SF (pro treaty) head of government for the 10 days between the death of Arthur Griffith and his own assassination. His successor, WT Cosgrove may have also called himself SF(PT) before he founded the precursor of FG at the end of the Civil War

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