Empty chairs

Victoria’s Greens gear up for a party vote to fill Richard Di Natale’s Senate vacancy, plus similar developments for the state Liberals in Tasmania and Victoria.

As you can see in the post below this one, the Courier-Mail yesterday had a YouGov Galaxy state poll for Queensland that found both major parties stranded in the mid-thirties on the primary vote. State results from this series are usually followed a day or two later by federal ones, but no sign of that to this point. If it’s Queensland state politics reading you’re after, I can offer my guide to the Currumbin by-election, to be held on March 29. Other than that, there’s the following news on how various parliamentary vacancies around the place will be or might be filled:

• Noel Towell of The Age reports two former state MPs who fell victim to the Greens’ weak showing at the November 2018 state election are “potentially strong contenders” to take Richard Di Natale’s Senate seat when he leaves parliament, which will be determined by a vote of party members. These are Lidia Thorpe, who won the Northcote by-election from Labor in June 2018, and Huong Truong, who filled Colleen Hartland’s vacancy in the Western Metropolitan upper house seat in February 2018. The party’s four current state MPs have all ruled themselves out. Others said to be potential starters include Brian Walters, a barrister and former Liberty Victoria president, and Dinesh Mathew, a television actor who ran in the state seat of Caulfield in 2018.

• Former Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman’s seat in parliament will be filled by Nic Street, following a preference countback of the votes Hodgman received in the seat of Franklin at the March 2018 election. This essentially amounted to a race between Street and the other Liberal who nominated for the recount, Simon Duffy. Given Street was only very narrowly unsuccessful when he ran as an incumbent at the election, being squeezed out for the last of the five seats by the Greens, it was little surprise that he easily won the countback with 8219 out of 11,863 (70.5%). This is the second time Street has made it to parliament on a countback, the first being in February 2016 on the retirement of Paul Harriss.

• The Age reports Mary Wooldridge’s vacancy in the Victorian Legislative Council is likely to be filled either by Emanuele Cicchiello, former Knox mayor and deputy principal at Lighthouse Christian College, or Asher Judah, who ran unsuccessfully in Bentleigh in 2018. Party sources are quoted expressing surprise that only four people have nominated, with the only woman being Maroondah councillor Nora Lamont, reportedly a long shot. Also in the field is Maxwell Gratton, chief executive of the Melbourne Queer Film Festival.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Empty chairs”

Comments Page 6 of 25
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  3. zoomster @ #227 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:16 pm

    P1

    ‘Which, of course, Labor has dropped.’

    No, Labor has remained committed to the Paris Agreement. They’re simply open atm as to how to get there.

    Technically, no. Part of what we agreed to was that we increase our commitment over time.

    The Paris Agreement requires all Parties to put forward their best efforts through “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead.

    We are unlikely to even meet what we originally committed to. Which was a paltry amount in any case. And labor has now dropped any commitment beyond that.

    Mr Albanese said that while Labor wanted “ambitious” targets, the plan to cut emissions by 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 was a policy developed in 2015 and should have been reviewed before last year’s election.

    “Frankly, I think it was a mistake in 2019 to continue to say ‘well, we’ll do exactly what we’re doing in 2015″ – as if it hadn’t changed,” Mr Albanese told Sky News on Sunday.

    Mr Albanese would not commit to outbidding the Coalition target – a reduction of 26 to 28 per cent – saying he hoped the government would take action before the 2022 election.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-says-45pc-emissions-target-was-a-mistake-20200119-p53sqi

    In other words, Albanese would not commit to the Paris agreement.

    You can spin this as much as you like. The facts are clear.

  6. Rex Douglas @ #249 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 10:41 am

    a r @ #244 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:33 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #241 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 12:28 pm

    Seems Biden is now trying to kill mayor Pete….

    Won’t work. His own video showcases how much younger and more capable Mayor Pete looks by juxtaposing a shot of each candidate side-by-side. Good marketing…for Pete.

    I agree.

    Think it will be Bernie vs mayor Pete for the nomination. Amy to be the running mate.

    You’ve just destroyed Simon Katich’s dream!!!

  7. NE Qld @ #243 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:32 pm

    There is no compromising with the far left. Bipartisanship with moderate libs is the only way forward.

    By “far left” do you mean the Greens? Or the Labor left?

    Also, what is a “moderate lib”? The only one I can think of in recent history was Mal the Magnificent … and look what the rest of the Liberals did to him!

  8. Trump ridiculed for claiming his SOTU speech received ‘great’ reviews: ‘You bombed bigly’

    President Donald Trump bragged on Saturday night about the reception his State of the Union address received.

    “Thank you to everyone for all of the great reviews I have gotten on my State of the Union Speech,” Trump said. “It was an immense honor for me to have presented it to you and the citizens of our very strong and wonderful Country!”

    The commander-in-chief was quickly mocked for his bragging, here’s some of what people were saying:

    The only thing anyone will ever remember about that speech is Nancy Pelosi ripping it to shreds

    My God, man, can you be anymore embarrassingly insecure and needy? Have you no shame?

    It’s Saturday night and this crazy old man is sitting around in his stained robe, having no idea where his wife is, as he screams at the tv and swallows his 4th cheeseburger and wonders if adderall can be mixed into ketchup

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/trump-ridiculed-for-claiming-his-sotu-speech-received-great-reviews-you-bombed-bigly/

  10. Player One @ #255 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:49 pm

    NE Qld @ #250 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:41 pm

    If we could see into the future and know for certain that there will be no Labor or Labor/Greens government in the next 10 years, what should our approach be for reducing emissions reduction?

    It starts with civil disobedience. And then escalates from there 🙁

    Sure P1 arrives from Bumcrack Mountain all antsy and ready for action, gets lost on the way to the demo, waves a couple of IPCC reports about, yells a few expletives. After the local rozzers have stopped laughing, they hose her down fine her for littering but leave her glued to the road.

    That’ll show em!

  11. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, February 9, 2020 at 1:21 pm

    I think you’re right. The criticism of a number of posters is invariably aimed at Labor, with scant denunciation of the Tories. They sometimes offer praise, but more often than not, it’s qualified. They are of course entitled to their opinions but quite often they appear to be disingenuous. I’d prefer it if a few more conservatives posted on this site; at least then discourse might be more sincere.

  12. Player One @ #253 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 10:47 am

    …

    In other words, Albanese would not commit to the Paris agreement.

    You can spin this as much as you like. The facts are clear.

    Labor can only commit to aiming for the targets set out in Paris.

    How can they commit to achieving them if the current Government’s inaction made that impossible?

  15. phoenixRed:

    Did you see Trump tweeted that that awful photo of him with orange(er) face and braids in his pompadour was fake news?! 😆

    Expect the photographer to be knifed now!

  18. The people who turned against the Republicans in the midterms.

    Maggie Haberman@maggieNYT
    ·
    41m
    The Trump campaign focus isn’t only the suburbs. Hispanic evangelicals, African-Americans who self-describe as independents, upscale White women, other moderates.

  19. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #261 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:59 pm

    Player One @ #253 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 10:47 am

    …

    In other words, Albanese would not commit to the Paris agreement.

    You can spin this as much as you like. The facts are clear.

    Labor can only commit to aiming for the targets set out in Paris.

    How can they commit to achieving them if the current Government’s inaction made that impossible?

    *sigh*

    And some people here still don’t seem to understand why Labor lost the last election 🙁

  21. Player One @ #268 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 11:05 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #261 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:59 pm

    Player One @ #253 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 10:47 am

    …

    In other words, Albanese would not commit to the Paris agreement.

    You can spin this as much as you like. The facts are clear.

    Labor can only commit to aiming for the targets set out in Paris.

    How can they commit to achieving them if the current Government’s inaction made that impossible?

    *sigh*

    And some people here still don’t seem to understand why Labor lost the last election 🙁

    So you prefer lies?

  22. Greensborough Growler @ #269 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:05 pm

    Player One @ #265 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:03 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #260 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:57 pm

    That’ll show em!

    Are you planning to contribute anything useful today? Or are you just going to spend yet another day shouting at clouds?

    You should wear sun screen and a funny hat if you intend to demonstrate all day!

    So, you have yet again chosen the ‘shouting at clouds’ option?

  24. Confessions says: Sunday, February 9, 2020 at 2:02 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Did you see Trump tweeted that that awful photo of him with orange(er) face and braids in his pompadour was fake news?!

    *******************************************************************

  26. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, February 9, 2020 at 1:21 pm

    I’m in agreement with you. A number of posters spend their time criticising Labor but rarely attack the other mob. It seems rather odd to me that supposedly progressives would do this. Perhaps they prefer an argument for argument’s sake. I’d personally prefer a few more conservatives on this site. At least then the discourse may be less disingenuous.

  29. P1 ‘And some people here still don’t seem to understand why Labor lost the last election ‘

    Pretty straight forward P1, people prefer (which I suspect you do too) to have an environmentally wrecking Coalition in power.

  31. Rex

    I’m sorry you can’t understand simple concepts.

    On second thoughts, stick to ‘same same’. It might not be true, it might be actually damaging to the causes you claim to represent, but at least it makes it clear to other posters that you shouldn’t be taken at all seriously.

  32. Player One @ #279 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 11:17 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #274 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:12 pm

    Player One @ #272 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 11:10 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #270 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:08 pm

    So you prefer lies?

    I prefer a party that actually stands for something.

    No,
    you want Labor to say things they cannot be sure will be true in 2 years time.

    Are you new to politics or something?

    So, it’s just the fact that Labor’s chosen actions don’t match your yours.

    With your record on policy advocacy I’d say they’re on the right track.

  33. Player One @ #271 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:08 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #269 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:05 pm

    Player One @ #265 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:03 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #260 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 1:57 pm

    That’ll show em!

    Are you planning to contribute anything useful today? Or are you just going to spend yet another day shouting at clouds?

    You should wear sun screen and a funny hat if you intend to demonstrate all day!

    So, you have yet again chosen the ‘shouting at clouds’ option?

    Watching you playing with your goldfish again is the most exciting thing happening today on PB!

  35. Tozzer says:

    [‘The ALP stands for getting the ALP into government. Simples.’]

    Is that not the aim of all political parties?

  36. P1

    ‘Part of what we agreed to was that we increase our commitment over time.’

    Right. So if that’s part of the Paris Agreement, Labor is committed to it.

    ‘Mr Albanese said that while Labor wanted “ambitious” targets, the plan to cut emissions by 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 was a policy developed in 2015 and should have been reviewed before last year’s election.’

    Which doesn’t at all mean that Labor won’t commit to an even more ambitious target, of course.

    ‘Mr Albanese would not commit to outbidding the Coalition target – a reduction of 26 to 28 per cent – saying he hoped the government would take action before the 2022 election.’

    Again, this doesn’t mean Labor won’t commit to exceeding this target. As I’ve repeatedly stated, the action Labor takes on this will depend on the circumstances in two years time.

    ‘In other words, Albanese would not commit to the Paris agreement.’

    Bollocks. You haven’t shown that at all.

    He’s not talking about the Paris Agreement per se, just for the need for policies to be reviewed and adjusted over time.

  38. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #281 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:24 pm

    So, it’s just the fact that Labor’s chosen actions don’t match your yours.

    And “Labor’s chosen actions” are … what exactly? Which is kind of my point.

    With your record on policy advocacy I’d say they’re on the right track.

    Right. Labor doesn’t want criticism, so they elect to have no policies to criticize … and then they wonder why this attracts more criticism!

    I wonder which Labor genius thought this strategy up?

  39. P1

    ‘Are you planning to contribute anything useful today? Or are you just going to spend yet another day shouting at clouds?’

  42. Gerard Henderson, whose opinion you are all gasping for…

    Nationals’ senator Matt Canavan is one of Australia’s most impressive younger parliamentarians. Born on the Queensland Gold Coast in December 1980, he grew up in the low socio-economic Brisbane suburb of Logan.

    After a career in the Productivity Commission, Canavan worked as Barnaby Joyce’s chief of staff and was elected to the Senate in 2013, with his term beginning the following July.

    He is one of the few senators who lives outside of the capital cities; his base is Rockhampton in central Queensland.
    …
    Dutton’s strong stance on border security helped the Coalition in Queensland. He retained his own seat comfortably, despite an intense attempt to defeat him by a leftist GetUp operation. In Queensland the Liberal National Party is a combined entity whose members sit as Liberals or Nationals in the federal parliament.

    It was Canavan who saw that the Nationals’ part of the Coalition should be doing more for its base. Hence his support for the coal industry in general and the proposed Adani Carmichael mine in particular. The Coalition received substantial swings to it in central and northern Queensland, making some of its once marginal seats seem safe now.

    The Coalition’s victory could not have been achieved without its strong showing north of the Tweed River. In this state, the key players were Morrison, Dutton and Canavan — all of whom demonstrated an ability to get through to workers and their families in primary and manufacturing industries outside the capital cities.

    In this sense, Canavan took up the role in the Coalition once undertaken by Joyce, even though he was not the leader.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/a-blow-as-nationals-hero-walks-away-from-cabinet/news-story/858054eba87eb18398c7037448cc6240

  43. Revd Andrew Klein ( Chaplain) @KleinRevd
    ·
    3h
    I note that #Morrison praises ‘ loyalty ‘ in advisors more than the quality of the advice.

    This tells me much more about the man then anything else.

    Surrounded by a coterie of buttsniffers , poodlers and sycophants, he will continue to cause immense problems for Australia.

  45. zoomster @ #280 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:21 pm

    Rex

    I’m sorry you can’t understand simple concepts.

    On second thoughts, stick to ‘same same’. It might not be true, it might be actually damaging to the causes you claim to represent, but at least it makes it clear to other posters that you shouldn’t be taken at all seriously.

    ‘Simple concepts’ …??

    You can’t have a “far stronger stance on climate change than the Liberals” then concede there’s no “precise path forward”.

    You’re making the turnip Marles look like a competent politician.

    Seriously, just accept Labor have caved on climate to avoid a debate.

  49. zoomster @ #288 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 2:35 pm

    P1

    ‘Are you planning to contribute anything useful today? Or are you just going to spend yet another day shouting at clouds?’

    This civil disbodience thingy is interesting. I’m sure she will applaud anyone participating. Of course, that will not include her.

    Talks a really good fight does P1.

  50. If we could see into the future and know for certain that there will be no Labor or Labor/Greens government in the next 10 years, what should our approach be for reducing emissions reduction?

    1. Understand that the states have a lot of power to act and probably will in the absence of any adults being in charge Federally. It won’t hurt to lobby your state member.

    2. Target the climate deniers in the LNP, individually, personally. Pressure them. Pressure journalists. Makes sure they know they are being socially rejected.

    3. Go talk to other people in the community. Identify the people who want action on climate change and give them support. Identify the ones that don’t know what to do, and explain what to do. Identify the ones that are lizard brained climate deniers and put social pressure on them.

    4. Put pressure on Labor to help you with all of the above. Get Labor to provide organisational and logistical support. Get Labor to realise it needs to work professionally on reaching out to voters individually, personally and better informing them on basic facts – like the fact that we stand a lot to gain from new technology.

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