Empty chairs

Victoria’s Greens gear up for a party vote to fill Richard Di Natale’s Senate vacancy, plus similar developments for the state Liberals in Tasmania and Victoria.

As you can see in the post below this one, the Courier-Mail yesterday had a YouGov Galaxy state poll for Queensland that found both major parties stranded in the mid-thirties on the primary vote. State results from this series are usually followed a day or two later by federal ones, but no sign of that to this point. If it’s Queensland state politics reading you’re after, I can offer my guide to the Currumbin by-election, to be held on March 29. Other than that, there’s the following news on how various parliamentary vacancies around the place will be or might be filled:

• Noel Towell of The Age reports two former state MPs who fell victim to the Greens’ weak showing at the November 2018 state election are “potentially strong contenders” to take Richard Di Natale’s Senate seat when he leaves parliament, which will be determined by a vote of party members. These are Lidia Thorpe, who won the Northcote by-election from Labor in June 2018, and Huong Truong, who filled Colleen Hartland’s vacancy in the Western Metropolitan upper house seat in February 2018. The party’s four current state MPs have all ruled themselves out. Others said to be potential starters include Brian Walters, a barrister and former Liberty Victoria president, and Dinesh Mathew, a television actor who ran in the state seat of Caulfield in 2018.

• Former Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman’s seat in parliament will be filled by Nic Street, following a preference countback of the votes Hodgman received in the seat of Franklin at the March 2018 election. This essentially amounted to a race between Street and the other Liberal who nominated for the recount, Simon Duffy. Given Street was only very narrowly unsuccessful when he ran as an incumbent at the election, being squeezed out for the last of the five seats by the Greens, it was little surprise that he easily won the countback with 8219 out of 11,863 (70.5%). This is the second time Street has made it to parliament on a countback, the first being in February 2016 on the retirement of Paul Harriss.

• The Age reports Mary Wooldridge’s vacancy in the Victorian Legislative Council is likely to be filled either by Emanuele Cicchiello, former Knox mayor and deputy principal at Lighthouse Christian College, or Asher Judah, who ran unsuccessfully in Bentleigh in 2018. Party sources are quoted expressing surprise that only four people have nominated, with the only woman being Maroondah councillor Nora Lamont, reportedly a long shot. Also in the field is Maxwell Gratton, chief executive of the Melbourne Queer Film Festival.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Empty chairs”

Comments Page 13 of 25
1 … 12 13 14 … 25

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    According to The Australian, a Joyce backer, Llew O’Brien, has quit the National Party.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/blow-to-coalition-as-barnaby-joyce-backer-llew-obrien-quits-nationals/news-story/3f6d8dcc5885431ca56e3ca722dd2a8f
    Michael Pascoe tells us what a leak about the RBA says about an insecure and rattled Morrison government.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/02/09/pascoe-reserve-bank-leak-the-australian/
    Shane Wright explain how the Morrison government has been warned it will have to overhaul its approach to helping the unemployed as automation threatens the disabled and low skilled.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/disabled-and-low-skilled-most-at-risk-from-automation-20200206-p53yht.html
    Rob Harris says that Australia will take a new long-term emissions reduction target to November’s UN climate summit, as the Morrison government weighs up whether to join more than 80 countries to commit to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Meanwhile Zali Steggall and other crossbenchers will introduce a bill to something like this in parliament today.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-will-take-new-emissions-reduction-target-to-glasgow-climate-summit-20200209-p53z4b.html
    The editorial in the Canberra Times says that the government has serious questions to answer over its infamous robodebt scheme and should make amends for its unconscionable behaviour.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6620292/the-government-needs-to-make-amends-over-robdebt/?cs=14258
    Tony Walker looks at why the High Court should allow the release of archival documents regarding Whitlam’s dismissal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-the-enduring-mystery-over-whitlam-s-dismissal-20200206-p53yc8.html
    Katie Burgess tells us that now Australian researchers have accused the Coalition government of delaying the announcement of grants for political advantage.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6619337/government-accused-of-politicising-research-grants-by-delaying-announcements/?cs=14350
    And Luke Henriques-Gomes reveals that disability support pension recipients were increasingly forced to pay back alleged welfare overpayments as the government’s botched robodebt scheme progressed, despite repeated claims that the program did not target the vulnerable.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/10/disability-pensioners-were-increasingly-drawn-into-robodebt-while-scheme-was-under-scrutiny
    Solar photovoltaic scientist Dr Matt Edwards accuses the government of being wilfully blind to the economics of renewables. He says that with all subsidies taken out, solar PV and wind wipe the floor with gas, coal and nuclear.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-wilfully-blind-to-economics-of-renewables-20200209-p53z4m.html
    Jennifer Hewett writes that while it may only be $4 million for a feasibility study but the government’s announcement of a feasibility study of a new coal-fired power station will fire up the arguments over Australia’s energy policy in a tense atmosphere.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/collinsville-an-unlikely-front-line-in-climate-wars-20200209-p53z4y
    In the face of the climate disaster it helped create, the Australian government has given us only lies and denial says Tim Flannery.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/07/climate-fire-leaders-disaster-australian-government
    The AFR reveals that a nine-year-old payment in Papua New Guinea is threatening to derail the Australian-listed, Horizon Oil, after it repeatedly ignored corruption warnings and paid $US10.3 million ($15.4 million) to an unknown shell company.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/asx-oil-firm-mired-in-15m-png-bribery-scandal-20200207-p53ypj
    Tom Rabe reports that NSW rail workers will refuse to staff the state’s new intercity fleet, citing safety concerns with the multibillion-dollar trains, escalating tensions between the Berejiklian government and rail union.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-rail-workers-refuse-to-staff-new-trains-20200206-p53y9u.html
    The hospitality empire of celebrity chef George Calombaris is on the brink of collapse and could be placed into voluntary administration as early as this week, with about 500 employees facing an uncertain future reports Gemima Cody.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/calombaris-in-crisis-meeting-to-save-empire-20200209-p53z54.html
    According to Clancy Yeates banks have been trimming interest rates on term deposits in early 2020, new figures show, as returns to savers continue to be eroded by the global shift towards ultra-low interest rates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/term-deposit-rates-dwindle-as-bank-funding-costs-fall-20200207-p53ypx.html
    Looks like Marise Payne has done some good work here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/marise-payne-gets-tough-where-it-counts-20200209-p53z2y.html
    There is now an opportunity for platforms and publishers to establish a set of common standards that provides transparency around the distribution of news content writes Facebook’sMia Garlick.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/fairness-for-all-publishers-is-key-to-success-for-new-industry-code-20200209-p53z3y.html
    The experienced Tom Alegounarias says that in Australia, teachers are scrambling. They are overworked and undervalued. While they are subject to skyrocketing demands, they get inadequate and declining support and guidance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/teachers-are-scrambling-held-to-account-and-ignored-20200207-p53ysp.html
    Alan Austin writes that Trump’s State of the Union Address on Tuesday was not just hubris and braggadocio. It tried shamelessly to falsify the record, notably on the shaky US economy
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/trumps-state-of-the-union-address-shamelessly-falsifies-facts-on-us-economy/
    Better coordination and planning can reduce the severity of Australian bushfires, writes Greg Prior who says that unpaid volunteers are the backbone of the bushfire response.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/unpaid-volunteers-are-the-backbone-of-the-bushfire-response,13570
    Nicholas Gruen says that we’re still handing Orders of Australia to the wrong people.
    https://theconversation.com/whitlam-didnt-really-end-our-old-honours-system-were-still-handing-orders-of-australia-to-the-wrong-people-130800
    Euan Black identifies the five industries set to soar and fall over the next five years.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/work/2020/02/09/five-top-industries-tech-ibisworld/
    Dana McCauley writes that Catholic Health Australia has urged the government to force wealthy older Australians to pay more for the sector’s services, especially those living in multimillion-dollar properties.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/aged-care-provider-says-wealthy-homeowners-should-be-paying-more-20200207-p53ysw.html
    Government’s religious discrimination bill enshrines the right to harm others in the name of faith explains law professor Simon Rice. He concludes that Porter’s third attempt cannot be taken seriously if it persists with this perverse approach to religious freedom.
    https://theconversation.com/governments-religious-discrimination-bill-enshrines-the-right-to-harm-others-in-the-name-of-faith-131206
    The photo Donald Trump doesn’t want you to see but shared anyway.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2020/02/10/donald-trump-tan-makeup-photo/

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Jim Pavlidis

    Matt Golding


    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    Culture warrior Johannes Leak strikes again
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2a6c9d7c87f107d8de7c1be28deb9994?width=1024

    From the US


  5. Ms Steggall will release the details of her private member’s bill to establish a new independent Climate Change Commission which would outsource climate targets and policies to public servants.

    Hasn’t this already been tried? And how independent would any commission be under the rule of the LNP, who stack every board?

  8. The Coalition will go for zero50 as a sign that it is seriously concerned about global warming.
    The sheer beauty of this measure is that most Coalition MPs and senators will be dead by 2050.

  9. lizzie says:
    Monday, February 10, 2020 at 6:22 am

    …”Why is it sunny Queenslanders (Beautiful one day, perfect the next) who insist that coal power is the cheapest power?”…

    …………………….

    Barnaby Joyce was born and (in)bred in NSW.

    Richard Marles is from Melbourne.

  10. lizzie

    I’m not sure whether Steggal is doing this as a stunt, or is just naive.

    The call for a conscience vote suggests that. The major parties won’t allow one – simply because this isn’t a matter of conscience – it’s not a religious belief.

    This will, however, allow Steggal to grandstand about the Evils of the Major Party System and how They’re Both The Same.

    Grist to the mill for an independent but hardly honest or helpful.

    I remember the games people played around conscience votes and ME – demanding that Gillard bind her caucus to vote for it but that the Liberals be allowed a conscience vote. Suggest that Labor be allowed a conscience vote too, and all of a sudden a conscience vote was a Bad Thing.

    The other ways forward —

    Labor backs the Bill. Under no circumstance will the Liberals then allow their MPs a conscience vote.

    Labor allows a conscience vote (on what grounds I can’t imagine). Under no circumstances will the Liberals then allow their MPs a conscience vote.

    The Liberals allow a conscience vote…. sorry, not going to happen…

    The devil is also in the detail. Labor can’t vote a bill if it has sillinesses in it which can be used to ridicule them. Sillinesses won’t hurt the indies, because they can just open their eyes very wide and say that they don’t have the resources to properly vet such a bill, and thus shit happens. Sillinesses will be used to beat Labor with a big stick from now until the next election, particularly is said sillinesses end up with Labor in a contradictory position.

    Most private members Bills don’t get backing not because of any particular evil machinations by the major party machines but because they contain elements which are unworkable or impractical, so that any major putting their name to them would then be vilified for irresponsibility.

  11. Thenk you BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    One item in particular interested me.

    Rob Harris says that Australia will take a new long-term emissions reduction target to November’s UN climate summit, as the Morrison government weighs up whether to join more than 80 countries to commit to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Meanwhile Zali Steggall and other crossbenchers will introduce a bill to something like this in parliament today.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-will-take-new-emissions-reduction-target-to-glasgow-climate-summit-20200209-p53z4b.html

    Mainly for the comments.

    Kick the can down the road, do nothing for another decade and let the next gen pay for it again (small print under Scotty from marketing’s headline)
    Here is an idea:
    How about get rid of all the current tax rorts (mostly) for Scooty’s gen
    1) The great intergenerational tax rort that is our housing market
    2) Multinational corporations tax rort
    3) trust rorts to avoid capital gains tax
    4) Cashed-up retirees getting a refund for tax they never paid
    5) subsidies for oil and gas exploration rorts
    6) Health insurance tax rort
    7) throw in the sports rorts
    Next calculate what it’s going to cost the next gen by continuing to do nothing about emissions reduction and publish it.
    Then use that rort cash money to do something now about climate change.

    Targets are aspirations, dreams, visions and nothing without actions. Thirty years is up to half a lifetime for many.
    Where are the actions to transition energy, exports, employment, public transport, motor vehicles, energy storage, energy usage (eg street lights) etc? This government couldn’t even meet to plan for an identified and obvious wildfire risk. It stumbles with pandemics. It faints at tax reform. It disappears completely on integrity and standards. It blusters and fails on an annual budget but it becomes seemingly accountable on a thirty year target.

    The Liberal Party has completely lost its way and has no ideological coherence. Taylor declares that the pathway to reduced emissions is new technologies. So far so good. The Liberal Party of yore would have let the market determine which technologies will be successful. However this version insists on picking winners and allowing no price mechanism that will encourage the market to do its work. The State will set the target and the State will determine how it is to be achieved. We may as well be living in North Korea

    Of course there are comments wholly and absolutely in support of whatever is being propssed which point to the magnificence of the already in place emission reduction targets.

    Not only (in the article), but also an inset of Mr. A. Taylor beautifully photographed in Rembrandt Lighting . Sadly a recurrence of an old war wound prevents me from offering this image to more delicate eyes.

  13. av

    You could actually try addressing the points I make, rather than just snarking.

    Failure to do so just demonstrates how weak your case is – or how little you understand about politics.

  14. Why would any MP commit to supporting a bill that even the Guardian says has been kept under wraps?

    Steggall will introduce her bill on March 23. I don’t see the point of discussing this until there’s more information about it.

  15. Just on research funding and BK’s article, I’m in complete disagreement with the Universities on this one. When the grants are announced in one block it means that research gets a very short time in the media. That’s not only bad for the Government, but it also pushes science and research out of the public mindset as well. When the announcements are staggered, there is more media which helps the Government, but it also means more pain for the Government if they cut funding. The practicalities of having an embargo are, in my experience, much more trivial than the Universities are making out.

  16. Let’s look at the conscience vote thing from another angle.

    If you’re a Liberal, you don’t need one. You have the power to cross the floor on any issue at any time. If the party threatens you about consequences if you do, you can make a big splash for yourself about how you’re standing up for what’s right, yada yada. Joyce made his reputation by crossing the floor on multiple occasions.

    No Liberal in Federal Parliament is making any kind of noise which suggests they’re getting itchy feet and want to remember what the view from the other side of the chamber looks like.

    Labor occasionally allows conscience votes, but it’s on issues to do with religion. The only reason one would be granted in this case would be if a majority of Labor MPs wanted to support the Bill and a minority didn’t – in which case, there wouldn’t be enough Yeas for the Bill to get up.

    If a majority of Labor MPs oppose the Bill, then a conscience vote is irrelevant, as the Bill won’t get up.

  17. The call for a conscience vote suggests that. The major parties won’t allow one – simply because this isn’t a matter of conscience – it’s not a religious belief.

    A conscience vote means a Member of Parliament or Senator can vote whichever way they like, free of any consequences from their party or leader. Usually Usually, conscience votes are on issues of life and death, or controversial social legislation.

    Some would say tackling global heating is a matter of life and death.

  18. Meanwhile in Iowa it sounds like those involved in doing the numbers in the caucus have problems with maths!

    Thanks to greater transparency in reporting the caucus results this year, outsiders were able to identify internal inconsistencies. The New York Times reported last week that some precincts, for example, had awarded more delegates to candidates than they were allotted.

    In addition, caucus “captains” for individual candidates photographed the worksheets in their precincts and shared them internally with their campaigns. Those photographs provided further examples of problems. The most blatant were errors in adding up votes for candidates, which take place in two rounds, and miscalculations when using a formula that translates raw votes to “state delegate equivalents.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-caucuses-democrats.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    The updated results are coming out tomorrow, but according to Iowa Democratic Party the results cannot be corrected/changed as this would supposedly violate electoral law. I just hope the states to come do better.

  19. peg

    ‘Some would say tackling global heating is a matter of life and death.’

    And I would totally agree with them. There are a lot of issues like that, however, where conscience votes are not allowed.

  21. Most private members Bills don’t get backing not because of any particular evil machinations by the major party machines but because they contain elements which are unworkable or impractical, so that any major putting their name to them would then be vilified for irresponsibility.

    The major parties would rationalise and spin it that way.

    I guess when both major parties vote together on substantive legislation, as they often do, that contain “elements which are unworkable or impractical”, as warned by experts, that’s hunky dory and “grand-standing”. Any parliamentarian has the democratic right to put up amendments to any bill. That’s the process.

    Private members’ bills keep issues front and centre, force discussion and generally are concerned with issues the major parties are reluctant to tackle in any meaningful and real way.

    To believe only the major parties are capable of putting up “perfect” legislation requiring no amendments is risible.

  22. …off the top of my head, I can’t think of any religious belief which would stop an MP voting for action on climate change. Even a fundie can’t say “It says in the scripture that I can’t vote for climate change action – see Leviticus 8.11…”

  23. peg

    ‘Private members’ bills keep issues front and centre, force discussion and generally are concerned with issues the major parties are reluctant to tackle in any meaningful and real way.’

    Yep – which means they’re stunts, by definition.

    I’m not against them, just pointing out why the demand for a conscience vote is – well – silly. Or another stunt.

  25. Boerwar @ #608 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 8:06 am

    The Coalition will go for zero50 as a sign that it is seriously concerned about global warming.
    The sheer beauty of this measure is that most Coalition MPs and senators will be dead by 2050.

    Jeez mon ami. Un/fortunately so will we (be dead).

    The aforementioned Coalition MPs and Senators have already begun to strike back

    Already signs and portents indicate that a variety of dynasties are in the building stage and admirers and enthusiasts for the current system of ………………………….are assured that names such as Mr. Whatsisname and Mr. BigHatNoCattle will be entrenched from now until the end of time or next week which ever comes first. Only the addition of Jr. to the name will be different.

    ♫ Oh me oh my oh you ♪ Whatever shall I ♪ do?
    ♪ Hallelujah, The ♫ question is ♫ peculiar
    ♫ I’d give a lot of dough ♪ If only I could ♪ know
    ♪ The answer to my question ♫ Is it yes or is it ♫ no?

  26. peg

    …’To believe only the major parties are capable of putting up “perfect” legislation requiring no amendments is risible.’

    And totally not what I’m arguing.

    I’m saying there are other reasons, rather than disagreement about the core aims in a Bill, why private members’ Bills rarely get anywhere.

    However, as you’ve admitted, they’re stunts, so they’re not intended to.

  27. Asking for a conscience vote on a bill to do with a matter of life and death as is global heating is not a stunt, regardless if the numbers are not there to pass it. A conscience vote will flush out the parliamentarians who talk out of both sides of their mouths. Subsequently, voters in individual electorates can then make a judgement at election time about whether those opposed to the bill deserve to get their vote.

  28. zoomster @ #622 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 5:40 am

    …off the top of my head, I can’t think of any religious belief which would stop an MP voting for action on climate change. Even a fundie can’t say “It says in the scripture that I can’t vote for climate change action – see Leviticus 8.11…”

    If anything you’d think they’d be in favour of caring for ‘god’s creation’, but in the US Deep South anyway, environmentalism is associated with leftwing activism and therefore to be avoided. Perhaps those more strident climate activists have not helped the cause when it comes to people of faith?
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/19/talking-with-evangelicals-about-climate-change-south

  30. (This is a genuine question) Has Barnaby ever actually crossed the floor…I know he drones on about it endlessly (as does Christensen), but how often has he really done it?

  32. peg

    Yep – as I said earlier, this is about indies being able to paint the majors as ‘same same’ to improve their election chances.

    Hence the calls to commit before the legislation is available for scrutiny.

  36. Steggall is asking the majors to commit to a conscience vote not to the bill unseen. Why is that such a ‘biggie’? The reasons you have put forward so far are not convincing enough to explain why this commitment is so difficult.

  38. Torchbearer

    Well, his wiki entry says he crossed the floor 19 times at one point and 28 at another. So about once a year or so.

  40. Thanks about Barnaby- I know he has threatened to cross a hundred of times more than he has actually done it…and he hasnt really done it for a long time. It is really just an attention seeking tantrum.

  41. ‘Not an issue that’s going away’: Zali Steggall on climate bill

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/not-an-issue-thats-going-away:-zali-steggall-on-climate-bill/11948552

    Disaffected Liberals who want more action on climate change are the target of a crossbench plan to legislate much tougher emission cuts.

    Later this morning, independent MP Zali Steggall will release her long-awaited private members bill, which calls for a conscience vote on net-zero emissions by 2050.

    She’s hoping to galvanise community sentiment following the devasting bushfire season to pressure moderate Liberals to split from the Coalition party room and back the bill.

    I speculate Labor would be worried about who anong its ranks would be seen opposing the bill in concert with the Coalition climate deniers.

  45. Homeowners versus renters and the rise in wealth inequality.
    ——

    Older Australians who own their home more than 20 times better off than those who rent, data shows

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-10/older-australians-who-own-home-more-than-20-times-better-off/11815006

    Nicki Hutley, partner at Deloitte Access Economics, believes Australia is in danger of creating a separate class of Australians who will not reap the many benefits that come with home ownership.

    “Are we allowing one class of Australians to build for their retirement more easily than another class of Australians? The answer to that is unequivocally yes,” she said.

    Ms Hutley has warned that Australia is in the grip of a housing affordability crisis that will lock a growing number of people out of the property market.

    The analysis provided to 7.30 by the Reserve Bank of Australia confirms rates of home ownership fell among every age group between 2011 and 2016.
    :::
    Watch part one of 7.30’s four-part housing special tonight.

  47. peg

    You can speculate all you like, but you’re not answering the question.

    I can’t think of any previous indie Bill which has come attached with a demand for a conscience vote. Why the change? Why the focus on that, instead of the contents of the actual Bill?

    It’s a stunt. Stunts are OK – as you say, they draw attention to issues – but they’re still stunts.

  48. Fess

    I daresay they all watch fox news.
    And I bet if Trump and co said they hated Putin the stats would be zero trust for Putin.
    That’s what happens in the cult of Trump.
    We live in cray cray times

Comments Page 13 of 25
1 … 12 13 14 … 25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *