Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 47 of 49
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  1. “Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 5:37 pm
    Seems like this Mckenzie pile on may herald the return of Barnaby Joyce to the Ministry and maybe even a Leadership role.”

    Barnaby won’t be too unhappy about McKenzie’s problems over the sports rorts affair. However for Australians, it’s more like “out of the frying pan into the fire”.

  2. “ If I can speak for Rex and Pegasus. …”

    Behold emerging from its chrysalis a modern Uriah Heep of the Liberal Party:

    Nathaniel Pegarex.

  3. David Speers

    Bridget McKenzie’s sport grant cash splash is a particularly brazen example of pork-barrelling

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/bridget-mckenzie-saga-pork-barrelling-brazen-example/11874224

    Australia has a long, not so proud and not particularly creative history of political pork-barrelling.

    Governments of both political persuasions have been repeatedly scalded by audit reports, and yet they return to the same old trick; using grants programs to funnel big dollops of taxpayers’ cash towards protecting marginal seats.

    The Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Government had its Regional Development Australia Fund. The Howard Government had its Regional Partnerships Program.

    And before this came the Keating Government’s Community, Cultural, Recreational and Sporting Facilities Program.

    All with different names but the same essential aim.
    :::
    Finally, is the question of legality. To be clear, the Auditor-General is not saying any law was necessarily broken by the Minister approving these grants, but the report finds “it is not evident… what the legal authority was”.

    This is perhaps the most damning part of the entire report.
    :::
    The bigger question is whether any of this will put an end to pork-barrelling altogether. If history is any guide, don’t hold your breath.

    And just make sure you’re in a marginal seat if your footy club needs a new loo.

  5. a r @ #2296 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2291 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:00 pm

    You might want to inform yourself that we operate in a Federal System that uses geographic seats for sending Members to the Parliament.

    I’m aware. I just don’t think it’s above producing disproportionate/non-representative outcomes in aggregrate. 🙂

    I don’t think it will change and I don’t think there is any real demand to change the voting system in Australia apart from the Greens who are just confecting another meaningless argument to explain why 90% of Australians don’t vote for them and that somehow means the system is unfair to them.

  6. Boerwar @ #2251 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:01 pm

    The Greens are pretending that Labor is as corrupt as the Coalition.
    Of course.
    The Greens are lying through their teeth in order to gain votes.
    That, too, is corrupt.
    The last three Coalition governments have, beyond a shadow of a doubt, been the most thoroughly, consistently and deeply personal and structurally corrupt governments in the history of federation.
    The Greens lying about this is par for the Greens course.
    It is just another chapter in their same old, same old mantra.
    This is the mantra they used to help Kill Bill and Sink Labor.
    Not that the Greens would admit this.
    Too embarrassing because it would mean they have to take some accountability for the Coalition corruption and the climate destruction wrought by Morrison.
    The Greens are intellectually and ethically corrupt.
    But nowhere near as corrupt as McKenzie.
    Not within a bull’s roar of being THAT corrupt.

    I see the establishment soldier Boerwar is continuing the full frontal attack on environmentalists so as to maintain the standing of the parliamentary ‘friends of coal’ cartel.

  7. citizen @ #2299 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:06 pm

    “Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 5:37 pm
    Seems like this Mckenzie pile on may herald the return of Barnaby Joyce to the Ministry and maybe even a Leadership role.”

    Barnaby won’t be too unhappy about McKenzie’s problems over the sports rorts affair. However for Australians, it’s more like “out of the frying pan into the fire”.

    Nat supporters like him and vote for him and cheer for him.

    They don’t care about anyone outside their bubble. The more he is ridiculed in the MSM and elsewhere, the more they like him for apparently defending their way of life and values.

  8. The totalitarian urge isn’t far below the surface for those on the Left.

    Di Natali didn’t pay his Au Pair only $5 an hour – this is one of the few issues I am absolutely on his side. It is a complete misrepresentation to claim he under paid without knowing all the facts and it is highly likely that the non-cash benefits of living with the family lifted the total package well above $25 per hour of childcare.

  9. They don’t care about anyone outside their bubble. The more he is ridiculed in the MSM and elsewhere, the more they like him for apparently defending their way of life and values.

    And again I agree with GG, not that he would know as I am fairly confident he is now blocking me.

  11. Buc

    Yes, the bs re RDN only paid them $5/hr has been debunked many times…..Nevertheless it gets a regular airing when the baying Labor pack requires deflection and ad hominem attacks against a handful of persistent non-Laborite voices.

  12. Always the excuse “We can’t do anything about it, that’s the system.” Weak-kneed Councillors.

    Farmers in Queensland’s drought-declared and bushfire-hit Southern Downs Region say they are devastated the council is allowing a company to take up to 96 million litres of water a year for bottling.

    The owners of Cherrabah Resort, a four-star rural hotel in Elbow Valley near Warwick, have been approved to install water extraction and purification facilities on their land, which is surrounded by drought-ravaged farming properties.

    Residents of the Southern Downs are on severe water restrictions and the council has begun trucking in water to supply Stanthorpe.

    However, last month the council approved an application that could see millions of litres of water sucked up from groundwater and trucked to the Gold Coast for bottling.

    “It’s pretty gut wrenching really and really the timing of it stinks, because we have run out of surface water and we’ve always relied on springs and creeks,” farmer Andrew O’Dea said.

    Mr O’Dea said he has just seven cows and one bull left on his property.

    His family has farmed cattle in the area for five generations — or about 140 years — but has had to get rid of almost all of his herd due to the drought.

    “It’s tough, it’s always tough because they’re breeding stock which you’ve nurtured over decades,” he said.

    “There wasn’t too many other choices, given the price of hay and feed.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/company-approved-to-take-water-in-drought-ravaged-queensland/11873394?pfmredir=sm

  13. That’s right Bucephalus. I looked into it and it involved the occupation of a self contained unit. I think I made the determination that while the compensation was not overly generous it was about right. Perhaps RDN could have been a bit more generous just to remove any doubts over the issue.

  14. Nothing Left: The Greatest Moral Challenge Of Our Nation, And Why We’re Failing To Tackle It

    https://newmatilda.com/2020/01/16/nothing-left-the-greatest-moral-challenge-of-our-nation-and-why-were-failing-to-tackle-it/

    But I would say this to Labor leader Anthony Albanese, as he travels around the country on his ‘listening tours’, a man who habitually reserves as much scorn for the Greens in Australia, as for the conservative government: your challenge is to articulate an authentic working-class ecological politics, something that would allow you to oppose Adani but still win an election; something that would allow you to fight the fossil fuel industry head-on.

    Good luck with that.

  15. The drought is a shortage of rainfall.

    Has a shortage of ground water been identified in the area? If it has then issuing the license is probably a bad decision. If there isn’t a problem with the ground water then what is the problem?

  17. I see Andrew Earlwood is getting more desperate to pretend that the Greens and The LNP are same same.

    Just as stupid as when the Greens say it about Labor and the LNP.

    Those coal dollars must be singing very powerfully.

  18. nath

    When we had them they had a very nice room with double bed and TV. We allowed their friends to stay over on Weekends because we are close to the Nightclub district. I think the record was 6 girls staying over. No boys except long term ones visiting from the Motherland. Unrestricted internet usage. All meals including if we went out and we would buy any food choices they asked for. A free car and they only paid petrol if they took it away on a trip to the country. We took them on holidays all paid for if they wanted. Just no smoking. A very good wicket. Quite a few have come back to visit and stay with us.

  19. ‘Player One says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 6:05 pm

    Boerwar @ #2256 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:07 pm

    But, that said, P1’s slagging excuses are becoming more creative.

    Whereas yours, sadly, are not.’

    A bit of a break from slagging Labor?

  20. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 6:30 pm

    The drought is a shortage of rainfall.

    Has a shortage of ground water been identified in the area? If it has then issuing the license is probably a bad decision. If there isn’t a problem with the ground water then what is the problem?’

    So many questions, so few answers.
    I suggest trucking in any shortfall on the taxpayer.
    You know it makes sense.

  21. Buce

    ‘….and it is highly likely that the non-cash benefits of living with the family lifted the total package well above $25 per hour of childcare.’

    … it is highly likely very progressive.

    That, and his luxurious new house in the Inner Urbs.

  22. I anticipate the sports rorts debacle will be pushed very hard by the ACTU and the broader labor movement when Parliament resumes and Morrison gives his anti union legislation one more trip on the merry go round.

    One rule for workers another for the government. Very good timing.

  23. Citizen:

    Having Speers and Tingle on board with their political commentary of late is a good sign. On top of that, the ABC (Ita’s influence?) seems less afraid to criticise the Federal Government than it was in the recent past. Perhaps they are less afraid of Murdoch since he has been attacked by the likes of Rudd, Hewson and now Turnbull as well as James Murdoch. Having publications like the NYT critical of Morrison over climate change might have encouraged the ABC to be a bit less afraid of the big bad wolf.

    Seems to be a voice of sanity in this here asylum.

    It wasn’t too long ago that we were being told—all knowingly—that “Ita’s there for a reason” as an explanation for any and all supposed misbehaviour on the part of the ABC. It now turns out Cold Chisel were right about Ita!

    Very few people are the daemons they are proclaimed to be and almost all of the problems are down to incompetence (of which there is usually an awful lot) rather than malice.

    The key is to be honest about mistakes (at least with oneself), to understand and learn from them, actually to take responsibility and on that basis to try to do better.

  24. BK says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 5:48 pm
    McKenzie should go simply on the grounds that she is dumb and lazy.

    __________________________

    With the exception of Littleproud and Chester you can say that about all the others too.

  25. I wonder whether the Extinction Rebellion, the Climate Strike, and the Bushfires Protest being hijacked* by the Greens has taken the political sting out of these ventures in Australia?

    Being hijacked by the extreme Greens lefties, sundry Trots, etc, who want things like MMT, the UBI, the UJG, the death of capitalism, the instant removal of all GMOs from the environment, etc, etc, etc basically guts any chance that these issues will be taken seriously by the 90% of the electorate who vote against the Greens. It further isolates the environment vote that is currently locked in and without actual political power by the Greens Party.

    *Bandt and Faruqi addressed the Bushfire Protests and sundry other Greens have done the same for the other protests. Shoebridge has taken it an imaginative step forward. He has made the Anthropocene Extinction Event all about HIM.

  26. The au pair system is open to abuse (not saying that RDN did this). They are paid the Australian minimum wages, about $18 ph with expenses deducted.

    The recommendation is to deduct $350 per week for room and meals. This seems quite high. One more meal at mealtimes doesn’t cost much and utility costs aren’t that high for one extra person in a largish household. At $70 a day I think the employer is likely to profit on the expense costs.

    Also hours worked are often more than those remunerated.

    Therefore, after deductions, the hourly rate can indeed be very low – eg about $6 per hour for a 30 hour work week.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 6:08 pm
    “ If I can speak for Rex and Pegasus. …”

    Behold emerging from its chrysalis a modern Uriah Heep of the Liberal Party:

    Nathaniel Pegarex.
    ________________________
    Not very Vice-Presidential of you Mr Earlwood!

  30. Kate,

    I have no idea where you got your numbers from because none of the Au Pairs we knew were in such a bad situation.
    Try renting a room, paying for all your meals, laundry, Internet, pay TV, streaming services etc that you get free in the home and transport to and from place of employment on say $20-$25 per hour for a 35 hour week and see how you come up.

  32. ‘Player One says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 6:53 pm

    Boerwar @ #2318 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:39 pm

    A bit of a break from slagging Labor?

    If you have an argument to put, by all means put it. If all you want to do is bag other posters, I have better things to do today.’

    So, what do you think of the massive and systemic corruption at both personal and governmental levels of the Morrison Government?

  33. Buce
    The real problem is that the power relationships are all one way and at extremely close quarters.
    Au pairs, being non-unionized, are at the total mercy of their employers.
    I some, many or most (who knows) cases the personal relationships are good enough to ensure that it is win win.
    But the lack of unionization, the general indifference – nay, encouragement – of the Coalition Government, when it comes to exploiting labour, and the lack of resources dedicated to monitoring, reporting, investigating and prosecuting wage theft, means that au pairs are extremely vulnerable.

  35. Boerwar

    Well we had a really good experience and most of them are like second daughters to us now.

    There were a few that we heard of having a rough trot but that was quickly sorted by the Agent or the girls moved on. It’s not like they don’t know what they are getting into.

    My mother and sister both did it in Europe and had wonderful experiences.

  36. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    It’s not like they don’t know what they are getting into.’

    Oh, what would that be? Sometimes you say more than you mean to say.

    Your personal anecdotes are interesting but they do nothing to take away from the systemic issues I have alerted you to.

  38. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 6:39 pm

    nath

    When we had them they had a very nice room with double bed and TV. We allowed their friends to stay over on Weekends because we are close to the Nightclub district. I think the record was 6 girls staying over
    _______________________
    You lucky bastard…..I’ve got to do the same…..Berlin girls.

  40. BW
    Not sure how you measure corruption but I’m pretty sure using the fairly objective measure of years spent in prison that Labor win (thanks to NSW Labor).

  41. Where I Hope Labor and the Greens are same same. Along with the Crossbench is pursuing the corruption and calling for a Federal ICAC with teeth.

  42. “ You lucky bastard…..I’ve got to do the same…..Berlin girls.”

    Wow! Did your ‘non financial compensation’ arrangements extend to free shoulder rubs, or just the adoring gazes of middle aged male hosts? .$5 per hour on top of that. Geez, what lucky girls …

  43. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 7:39 pm

    BW
    Not sure how you measure corruption but I’m pretty sure using the fairly objective measure of years spent in prison that Labor win (thanks to NSW Labor).’

    False test. It assume that Nationals and Liberal crooks are going to be prosecuted. Clearly not the case.

    What about the 15 or so Liberal MPs who did not end up in jail for the developer donations stuff? And then there there is enormous lucky dip:

    Abbott: Lucky $80,000 (?)Rolex Watch
    Robert: Lucky $80,000 (?) Rolex Watch
    McFarlane: Lucky $80,000 (?)Rolex Watch
    Robert: Unlucky China Business Trip
    Ley: Unlucky Gold Coast Business Trips
    Sinodinos: Lucky Water Holdings Sergeant Schultz
    Joyce: Unlucky Motorbike Prang
    Joyce: Unlucky 4×4 Prang
    Joyce: Lucky Love Shack
    Joyce: Lucky Job for the Other Woman
    Joyce: Lucky Mongrel Country Buy
    Joyce: Lucky Farmer of the Year Cheque
    Joyce: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Joyce: Lucky Trip to Smith’s Wedding
    JBishop: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Gambaro: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Brandis: Lucky Wedding Trip to Smith’s Nuptials
    Hockey: Lucky Helloworld Buy
    Cormann: Lucky Free Family Trip
    Morrison: Unlucky Bus Plane Bus Plane Trip
    BBishop: Lucky Mirabella Wedding Trip
    BBishop: Unlucky Helicopter Trip
    Porter: Lucky Campaign Bus
    Keenan: Lucky Fifth Amendment
    Cash: Lucky Fifth Amendment
    Downer: Unlucky Fake Cheque
    JBishop: Lucky $50,000 Liberal Party Donation
    JBishop: Lucky Polo Trip
    Pyne: Lucky Christmas Trip

    Porter: Lucky Campaign Bus
    Mirabella: Lucky Sub Expert
    Sudmalis: Lucky UN Observer Stint
    Hockey: Lucky Childcare Leaner
    Robb: Lucky Post China FTA China Job
    Billson: Lucky Double
    Abbott: Lucky Indigenous Envoy
    Joyce: Lucky Drought Envoy
    Turnbull: Unlucky $1.75 Million Donation
    Abbott: Lucky Daughter’s Scholarship
    Wilson: Lucky Human Rights Commissioner Gig
    Parry Unlucky S44 Heave Ho
    Porter: Lucky Pal Parry
    Parry: Lucky AAT Gig
    Briggs: Unlucky in Love
    Cash: Lucky in the Property Game
    Ley: Lucky Pilot Fees
    Robert: Bad Phone Luck
    Turnbull: Lucky Tax Haven
    Robert: Lucky Dip Share Gifts
    Porter: Lucky No Bells Ringing
    Frydenberg: Lucky No Bells Ringing
    O’Dwyer: Lucky No Bells Ringing
    Hockey: Lucky No Bells Ringing
    Brandis: Lucky London Gig
    Brandis: Lucky Diary No-show
    Robert: Lucky Home Internet
    Robert: Lucky Sunland Dip
    Robert: Lucky Office Resources
    Bushby: Lucky Chicago High Commissioner Gig.
    Hunt: Unlucky Elder Tirade
    Sukkar: Unlucky Sums
    Downer: Lucky Chevening Scholarship
    Dutton: Lucky Paladin Innocent Bystander
    Dutton: Lucky s44 non referral
    Porter: Lucky Baldwin Pal.
    Bob Baldwin: Lucky AAT Gig
    Joseph Francis: Lucky AAT Gig
    William Frost: Lucky AAT Gig
    De-Anne Kelly: Lucky AAT Gig
    Michael Sutherland: Lucky AAT Gig
    Tony Barry: Lucky AAT Gig
    John Griffin: Lucky AAT Gig
    Robert Clark: Lucky Helloworld Sponsorship
    Donna Petrovich: Lucky AAT Gig.
    Patricia Forsythe: Lucky NZ High Commissioner Gig.
    Steve Ciobo: Lucky Indonesia Trip.
    Perrotet: Lucky campaign donation from former law firm that gets government contracts.
    Nigel Hallett Lucky Dip
    Phil Edman Lucky Dip
    Brian Ellis Lucky Dip
    Josh Thomas Lucky $350,000 GBRMPA Gig.
    Cash, wo bist the AFP?
    Taylor, wo bist the AFP?
    McKenzie, wo bist the AFP?
    The wholesale dropping of illegal land clearing charges against NSW farmers.
    Tens of thousands of megs of water stolen in NSW and the government looked the other way.
    Sinodinos, lucky ambassadorship to the US after he could not remember a blessed thing during the corruption inquiry.
    Pyne, lucky job in the defence industry after signing the most expensive fuck up contract in the history of the Federation.
    Christensen, very lucky in filipina love.

  44. ‘Player One says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 7:35 pm

    Boerwar @ #2331 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 7:01 pm

    So, what do you think of the massive and systemic corruption at both personal and governmental levels of the Morrison Government?

    It is appalling and the responsible ministers should resign or be sacked. Labor should go hard on this.

    How likely is it do you think that any of this is going to happen?’

    There you go again. You automatically turn an attack on the Coalition into a slag against Labor!

  45. “ Christensen, very lucky in filipina love.”

    How lucky indeed. Soon big George can get tips from nath, buce and the wiggle on just how to run an au pair …

    How good is that!

  48. There appear to be no end of shameless grubs in this world and you’ll always find an ex LNP minister ready to join them.

    The former foreign minister Julie Bishop has taken a job with financing group Greensill, which specialises in the controversial practice of reverse factoring.

    Reverse factoring, also known as supply chain finance, is a practice where suppliers to big business can get paid early by a company such as Greensill in return for a fee.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/16/julie-bishop-takes-job-with-greensill-the-firm-pushing-controversial-financing-practice

  49. TPOF:

    [‘With the exception of Littleproud and Chester you can say that about all the others too.’]

    I don’t know about Littleproud, but I do think that Chester’s one of the better performers. I do know anecdotally he’s well thought of in the veteran community. And he’s quite moderate for a Country Party member – compare him to, for instance, the loud, motor-mouthed, ostensible dipso Joyce.

  50. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 7:56 pm

    “ Christensen, very lucky in filipina love.”

    How lucky indeed. Soon big George can get tips from nath, buce and the wiggle on just how to run an au pair …

    How good is that!
    _________________________
    How did that line about impotency and purity go again?

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