The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
No doubt Ms McKenzie will be hounded and and night by the Murdoch Noise Machine until she is forced out of her Ministry and out of Parliament.
No? Then until such time as Coalition Ministers are held to the same standard as those from Labor, I couldn’t give a stuff about allegations from over 7 years ago regarding a former Labor Minister made in a biased, non-credible news source.
So, how’s the climate thing going. Flicking through a few pages here it seems to have vanished.
Same out in voter land, do you think?
zoomster @ #2199 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 4:44 pm
Yes the three of us PB recalcitrants have to stick together against the PB Labor power pack.
One of The Rodent’s many blights he let loose on the country. He lost a lot of norty Ministers in his first year or so.. ‘Solved’ the problem by chucking standards on a bonfire.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-biggest-tragedy-of-sports-grants-scandal-is-that-nothing-will-happen/news-story/67fd8b8d1b4689e414c1e350e2b68bcc
It suggests that the real problem is not blind partisanship, or a refusal to see the bigger picture outside of ones narrow political perceptions, or substance-free snarking, or twisting the facts to suit a particular agenda, but rather that most awful of crimes: inconveniencing the Labor party.
No, that’s not what I meant at all, Asha Leu, but I do concede your point. I just find it dispiriting that all the snarking and actual abuse against Labor supporters here, and ditto in the other direction, sees the blog degraded mightily. Yet, there are certain contributors who see it as their reason to be here to do just that.
I mean, take nath, and his Shop Assistants Union jihad and Bill Shorten vendetta. Like, we get it already, dude. Yet, there he is, day and night (and I thought he was only going to be here while he was in hospital, or doing his, non-existent, PhD), day after day, just waiting for every moment that opens up to him to pounce. In the same way Rex Douglas characterises his comments with craftily-constructed one-liner snark. Or Player One with their circumlocuitous ‘logic’ that proves nothing other than they are the Tess Truehart of PB. Or Pegasus with her spamming of the blog with great slabs of carefully-edited, anti-Labor distribes. bakunin, at least, appears to have realised that he achieves more with a dialogue with Labor supporters than he ever did by mocking them. Quoll is kind of getting there, but sometimes he reverts to abuse at Labor because he is so distressed by the state of the environment and Labor are a Left party…so they should think like he does and do as he says.
I actually, whistfully wish we were back to the days of Fran Barlow debates with Labor people. At least she addressed Labor’s arguments and put her own position up for discussion, as opposed to The Greens’ partisans now who talk past you and abuse you along the way.
I agree with you, actually, Asha Leu, the blog is a much better place when we debate and discuss issues instead of using the forum as a drive-by slanging match.
*cue snarky one-liners about MY hypocrisy* 🙄
Bucephalus says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 12:47 pm
Victoria,
It was a report by the ANAO.
The ALP lost despite the pork barrelling so nothing further happened in relation to King.
______________________________
She lost her job as Minister. I think McKenzie should no longer be Minister.
P1 has the mother of all opportunities to slag the Coalition. Corruption up the gills. Corruption used to buy an election. Another chapter in P1’s journey:
P1’s journey
1. Kill Bill
2. Slag Labor for having some imaginary policy.
3. Slag Labor for not having a policy.
4. Slag Labor in order to help Labor.
5. Slag Labor for being too divided to have a policy.
6. Slag Labor because Coalition might just have an epiphany.
7. Slag Coalition corruption? Nope. Slag Labor Bludger supporters?
The slagging target never, ever varies. Based on the absence of slagging the Coalition, the Coalition can do no wrong.
But, that said, P1’s slagging excuses are becoming more creative.
C@t
I struggle to see what the point of commenters like Rex Douglas is, other than coming here for shits and giggles
__________________________________
It seems William Bowe believes their presence and postings enhance the quality of the blog. Complaining about them is, in his view, unhelpful.
Spending $100 million without the legal authority so to do is a large crime.
nath:
Yeah, there’s a fair bit about the SDA that’s difficult to defend. I was a member and had a fair bit of personal experience with them, and they are a mixed big, to say the least. Accusing them of corruption seems a bridge too far, though – I think they just arn’t that great a union.
Lock them up!!!
The Bludger McKenzie Luvvies: nath, Rex, P1, Buce…
A little reminder of The Rodent’s first ministry resignations , how many would have to resign or get the boot these days ?
——————————————-
1996 Short, Senator The Hon. James Robert
12.5.1997 (resigned)
Senator Short resigned on 14.10.1996 as Assistant Treasurer over his shareholdings in the ANZ Bank.
.
1996 Gibson, Senator The Hon. Brian Francis
22.2.2002 (resigned)
……Senator Gibson had resigned as Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer on 15.10.1996 over a conflict of interest due to his shareholdings in Boral Ltd.
.
1997
Woods, Senator The Hon. Robert Leslie
7.3.1997 (resigned)
Senator Woods resigned as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Health and Family Services on 3.2.1997, and resigned from the Senate on 7.3.1997. …….He was under police investigation for fraud relating to travel claims, including having claimed his lover was his wife for official travel purposes.
.
1997 Prosser, The Hon. Geoffrey Daniel, MP – 17.10.2007 (retired)
Mr Prosser resigned as Minister for Small Business and Consumer Affairs on 11.8.1997, to take effect on 18.7.1997, over a conflict of interest between the role and duties of a minister and holdings in a small business.
.
1997 Jull, The Hon. David Francis, MP
The Prime Minister announced on 25.9.1997 the resignation of Mr Jull as Minister for Administrative Services over administration of MPs’ travel claims and repayments of false or inaccurate claims. John Sharp (see below) had made erroneous claims and Mr Jull had allowed secret repayments to be made…
.
1997Sharp, The Hon. John Randall, MP
Mr Sharp’s resignation as Minister for Transport over false or inaccurate travel claims, and repayment procedures was announced by the Prime Minister on 25.9.1997.
.
1997 McGauran, The Hon. Peter John, MP
Member for Gippsland, Vic., 5.3.1983 – 9.4.2008 (resigned)
NP
The Prime Minister announced that Mr McGauran had resigned as Minister for Science and Technology on 26.09.1997 over false or inaccurate travel claims and repayment.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Chronology/Departures#_Toc484782461
poroti
….and then John Howard scrapped his Ministerial standards because, apparently, no Liberal MP could live up to them.
Single member electoral systems encourage/force pork barrelling, as the concentrate vulnerable seats in certain geographic areas. Proportional representation is the only way to reduce pork barrelling, reducing the incentive by distributing vulnerable seats more widely.
Z
Under Howard’s old ministerial standards, the Sports minister should go but both sides federally and on a state level tossed the Westminster conventions ages ago.
Still, she should get plenty of heat for it. But pork barrelling is so blatant now people just shrug their shoulders.
Labor and Libs both threw tens of millions at Boothby last election and ignored the rest of SA. There’s barely a road around me that isn’t going to be upgraded.
Opinion piece by Speers on McKenzie and the sports rorts:
Have to say, I’ve been increasingly impressed with the ABC as of late – they seem to have seriously rediscovered their spines. Their coverage on climate change has been particularly good. Hope they don’t back down under what the pressure I assume they are receiving from the Coalition about their “awful left-wing bias.”
Tom the first and best says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 5:20 pm
Single member electoral systems encourage/force pork barrelling, as the concentrate vulnerable seats in certain geographic areas. Proportional representation is the only way to reduce pork barrelling, reducing the incentive by distributing vulnerable seats more widely.
————————————
No system is perfect but proportional representation can be just as bad with MP’s being elected with little real electoral support so can be captive to certain groups and then there is the problem of do nothing seat warmers which can exist in any system but is a bigger problem with proportional representation as the Victorian upper house and federal senate shows.
Boerwar
“Spending $100 million without the legal authority so to do is a large crime.”
Not as long as Christian Porter is Federal Attorney General and Peter Dutton oversees the AFP. They make Republican control of the US Senate look impartial.
Seems like this Mckenzie pile on may herald the return of Barnaby Joyce to the Ministry and maybe even a Leadership role.
The family of the young LNP activist who commited suicide earlier this week also put out an interesting statement today:
“”To young, politically motivated people of all persuasions — we implore you to seek kind and wise mentors who will guide you, and not use you or wash their hands of you when you no longer serve their purposes,” his family said in a statement.
“Will worked tirelessly for causes without personal gain, gratitude or in some cases, loyalty.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/drag-queen-protester-wilson-gavin-family-share-anger-liberal/11873326
As I said at the time, if he LNP had gotten this guy counseling instead of sending him out as a foot soldier in their culture wars, he might still be alive. IMO he was obviously a deeply conflicted young man.
How many possibilities are there?
1. Sanders is a liar but not Warren.
2. Warren is a liar but not Sanders.
3. They are both liars.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/15/warren-sanders-debate-audio-transcript
GG
The knives have been out for McKenzie for quite a while. The ANAO Report might provide both the whetstone and the large round target on McKenzie’s back.
GG:
With all the crazy shit Barnaby has been saying lately, Labor must be running their hands with glee at the prospect.
Mexicanbeemer @ #2268 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 4:35 pm
You mean kinda like how the Nationals get 10 seats off of 4.5% of the vote?
Seems pretty far off the mark, given that the Greens get only 1 seat off of 10.4% of the vote.
Soc
Some bitterness there, but harnessed to hope for the future rather than revenge for the past?
I feel really sorry for his family and his friends.
As for the what-might-have-beens, I would assume that there are many a good and useful life he could have lived, had he lived.
Having Speers and Tingle on board with their political commentary of late is a good sign. On top of that, the ABC (Ita’s influence?) seems less afraid to criticise the Federal Government than it was in the recent past. Perhaps they are less afraid of Murdoch since he has been attacked by the likes of Rudd, Hewson and now Turnbull as well as James Murdoch. Having publications like the NYT critical of Morrison over climate change might have encouraged the ABC to be a bit less afraid of the big bad wolf.
McKenzie should go simply on the grounds that she is dumb and lazy.
AL
This morning I posted:
What part of “If Labor Ros Kelly had to go and went in 1994, so must NP Bridget McKenzie.” suggests to ignore McKenzie’s actions?
a.r
The National Party MP’s need to receive 50.01% of the vote to be elected.
Proportional representation will simply make it easier for less supported MP’s to be elected like Fraser Anning with his 12 votes. What value did he bring to the parliament or what real electoral work did he do to justify his existence. I know its an extreme example but people should have to win at least 50.01% to sit in the HoR. The single member system isn’t perfect as shown by the election of nuff nuffs like Craig Kelly.
I hear that Tony Burke stole some kid’s lead pencil at St Pat’s 5th grade debating club.
Surely that alleged high crime disqualifies him for ever in doing his job as an opposition spokesman in holding the most feckless, corrupt and incompetent federal Government to account.
Boerwar @ #2273 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:42 pm
Joyce has been doing a bit of MSM and social media of late too. The Nats have just replaced their top organisational guy with a refugee from the Mining Industry. With Climate Change likely to become hard fought issue., the Nats are likely to want their best performer driving them forward.
The family break up business is now fading and Joyce was re-elected with a thumping majority.
nath
Indeed. The carry on wtte only the Coalition would….exemplified by jenauthor’s post to which you replied.
Speers eviscerates the same old same old nath, Rex, P1, Buce, etc, etc, deflections crowd.
He nails McKenzie for doing unprecedented stuff on three counts:
1. The scale of her interventions.
2. The fact that they documented their corruption. They had not the shame to bother hiding what they were doing.
3. The illegality of what they did.
He adds a fourth: the shame-free brazen effrontery with which McKenzie (no doubt encouraged by the likes of Rex, nath, P1 and Buce) defends herself.
McKenzie is a prime exemplar of the two determining foundation elements of Coalition politics. They are post truth and they are post shame.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/01/12/newspoll-51-49-labor-10/comment-page-46/#comment-3324329
Being elected with no real electoral support is not much of an issue in the Senate, now the ridiculous group ticket voting system is gone.
It the Victorian Legislative Council group ticket voting is still used, so semi-random candidates still get elected. The solution is to scrap group ticket voting.
Seat warmers only thrive in safe seats, the way to reduce that in proportional representation systems is to have an open system for choosing between candidates of the same party/group. The lower attention levels given to upper house candidates is also a factor in causing upper house seat warmers.
Multi-member electorates, with 3-11 MPs allow proportional representation without too many small groups into Parliament.
Peg:
I apologise – I clearly missed that bit of your post.
D
Which is the exact same point I made earlier in the day.
My agenda re highlighting Ros Kelly, etc is to encourage people to look at voting #1 for other alternative parties and individuals besides the two major parties (and, no, not necessarily for the Greens).
TF&B
If you were going to do multi member electorates then ideally it would be with all MP’s facing every election instead of the current Senate system.
‘BK says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 5:48 pm
McKenzie should go simply on the grounds that she is dumb and lazy.’
If they tried applying that threshold across the Coalition board you could hear a pin drop.
Where were Porter, Dutton, Robert, Ley, Morrison and Reynolds as the crisis peaked? On fucking holidays or hiding in cupboards. They have now all scurried back and are desperately despatching uniforms, planes, helicopters, trucks and ships to every single photo op. They are ladling out wads of cash in lieu of empathy.
But FMD, what a bunch of dopey and lazy clunkers they proved until they were poked into some sort of self preservation.
Greensborough Growler @ #2270 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:37 pm
Just when Lamb Roasts go to $100. 😆
a r @ #2275 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:43 pm
You might want to inform yourself that we operate in a Federal System that uses geographic seats for sending Members to the Parliament. this is the magic trick that has been hidden in plain view since Federation.
1. The Nats only compete in areas where they have a chance of winning. Their vote is therefore quite concentrated and they win those seats because they get majority support in those seats.
2. The Nats and the Libs also have a no compete policy in seats where either holds the seat as part of their Coalition arrangements. This means that supporters of these parties don’t get to vote fo the party of their preference becuase they are structured to winning seats and Government.
The Greens are pretending that Labor is as corrupt as the Coalition.
Of course.
The Greens are lying through their teeth in order to gain votes.
That, too, is corrupt.
The last three Coalition governments have, beyond a shadow of a doubt, been the most thoroughly, consistently and deeply personal and structurally corrupt governments in the history of federation.
The Greens lying about this is par for the Greens course.
It is just another chapter in their same old, same old mantra.
This is the mantra they used to help Kill Bill and Sink Labor.
Not that the Greens would admit this.
Too embarrassing because it would mean they have to take some accountability for the Coalition corruption and the climate destruction wrought by Morrison.
The Greens are intellectually and ethically corrupt.
But nowhere near as corrupt as McKenzie.
Not within a bull’s roar of being THAT corrupt.
Exactly.
Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie under pressure from her own party room
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-21/mckenzie-under-pressure-from-national-backbenchers/11624076
TPOF @ #2256 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:07 pm
Yes. They are the Untouchables.
peg
‘My agenda re highlighting Ros Kelly, etc is to encourage people to look at voting #1 for other alternative parties and individuals besides the two major parties (and, no, not necessarily for the Greens).’
All very well, but most indies run on ‘we can get more for the electorate if we hold the balance of power’ — in other words, they say that they’d be in a better position to pork barrel.
Greensborough Growler @ #2291 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:00 pm
I’m aware. I just don’t think it’s above producing disproportionate/non-representative outcomes in aggregrate. 🙂
You want to know what is immoral, not necessarily corrupt or illegal, behaviour?
Richard Di Natale paying his au pairs $5 an hour!
Boerwar @ #2256 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:07 pm
Whereas yours, sadly, are not.