The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
Don’t want to break anyone’s heart here but, assuming ScoMo didn’t first hear about the New SportsRorts™ Scandal when he sat down to his Weeties at breakfast time yesterday morning, it was probably all done at his direction.
So no-one’s going to get sacked… unless a vacant ambassadorship position comes up in the next couple of weeks.
Don’t even dare to dream about it.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.smartaupairs.com.au/what-is-an-au-pair/au-pair-pocket-money/&ved=2ahUKEwiyxfrk54fnAhVg4zgGHdCdDx8QFjAMegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw1a2UXNrFjAAMu33BQ65KNV&cshid=1579167245973
Hope this link works for you Bucephalus
‘Diogenes says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 8:14 pm
That list isn’t objective. ‘
True. But what can you expect with the bunch of crooks? They cover their tracks fairly well.
Actually this is the website I got the au pair figures from
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.aupairworld.com/en/au-pair-programs/australia/general-conditions&ved=2ahUKEwiyxfrk54fnAhVg4zgGHdCdDx8QFjACegQIDxAM&usg=AOvVaw0HWdS3bzNczoNLJbN8nf0C&cshid=1579167245973
Diogenes:
[‘That list isn’t objective’]
What list is, and who is?
We’re all motivated by value judgments.
I’ve even known of judges to carry their baggage to the bench, though some doing a good job of it – eg,
Mason, CJ; some not so well – eg, Barwick, CJ. From there, we go to the SCOTUS, but I really don’t want to go there.
An unreported interview here and (I think) in the newspapers today was the one between Kevin Rudd and ABC News Radio this morning.
Apparently Rudd was in the room during the signing of the US- China trade ceasefire (in God knows what official capacity).
He told News Radío that it was a pretty good deal. He’d give it “5 or 6 out of 10”.
I nearly spat my coffee out laughing. The timing and the way he said it were perfect. Damning with faint praise indeed.
The Kevin Rudd of old
“ How did that line about impotency and purity go again?”
If ogling the help whilst also underpaying them makes you feel potent, then I guess you’d fit right in at Candyland.
Boerwar @ #2343 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 7:54 pm
So, in your mind, a comment clearly directed against both sides is a ‘slag on Labor’?
Grow up. You are turning this blog into a cesspit.
When a shock jock goes after a LNP Minister, things are getting serious. Tonight Luke(?) Grant railed against McKenzie and gave the shadow Minister Farrell(?) an uninterrupted hearing.
Grant said something I mentioned here earlier. McKenzie’s undoing will be from complaints by unsuccessful applicants (volunteers who spent time and effort on applications in the naive belief the grants program was fair and above board). Grant suggested Labor could could round up stories and let them drip out every day so to add to the pressure.
Hopefully peak stupid has now been reached?
Kate @ #2324 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:50 pm
Exactly as it was related to me by the Secretary of the Union that investigated RdN. Except I was told it was about $5/hour.
Bucephalus @ #2329 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:58 pm
I bet you don’t think Newstart should be increased either.
Blog watch 16/1/2020
Going forward only going to post links to interesting stuff on high volume sites. Low volume sites, whenever something happens.
High volume site; diverse opinion.
JON STANFORD: Second rate leadership Part 2 of 3: Defence
“Australia is now a confident, wealthy nation that has the right to expect its leaders to rise above the second rate.”
MIKE SCRAFTON. How good are Royal Commissions?
Morrison’s call for a Royal Commission on matters related to the bushfires is puzzling. It is difficult to avoid the suspicion that it was a thought bubble exuding from the advisors of a Prime Minster under great pressure. For the government there would seem to be little upside.
TERRY LAIDLER. Stop the Fires
The old paradigm we used for “fighting” fires has failed. The new paradigm has to be that we decide to “Stop the Fires” and the new question is not how do we contain or manage them or wait them out. It is: “How do we put these fires out?”
https://johnmenadue.com/
Low volume site. Conservative by name conservative by nature.
Cardinal Burke, Christianity & love of country
Cardinal Raymond Burke gave a speech last year on the issue of patriotism. It’s worth reading as it affirms traditional Catholic teaching that many Catholics might not be aware of.
http://ozconservative.blogspot.com/
Active blogger. Economics. Labor too right wing for John.
Economic estimates don’t account for tragic bushfire toll
That’s the headline for my latest piece for Independent Australia Obviously, costs like ecosystem destruction and the deaths of millions of native animals can’t easily be put into the framework of the National Accounts. But, even if we stick to the National Accounts, Gross Domestic Product is a terrible measure of economic welfare. As I always say, there are three reasons for that; it’s Gross, it’s Domestic and it’s a Product.
https://johnquiggin.com/
Active bloggers range of views worth reading.
Aussie bishops can’t shy from celibacy questions
Cardinal Sarah’s scandal-causing book arguing against changes to the rule of mandatory celibacy was a transparent attempt to thwart proposals coming out of the Amazonian Synod of 2019. Whatever the fallout, it should not be allowed to scare Australia’s bishops off from discussing the subject during Plenary Council 2020.
Coal hard truths about Australia-India relations
It is ironic for those of us who have long wished for a closer and more respectful relationship between India and Australia to be arguing now for caution. But perhaps the time has come for a relationship of political solidarity between the people of India and the people of Australia, rather than the economic expediency that seems to be on offer.
Vary active blogger. Right wing. Most of what he posts is rubbish. Today an exception.
Statement from the family of The Late Wilson Gavin
To everyone who knew our son and brother and shared their stories of who Wilson Gavin really was – we thank you.
To those who have described Wilson as “a deeply troubled young man”, including so-called family members – with all due respect – you never knew him.
Wilson Gavin died on Monday. He was 21.
To anyone who is or was angry with Wilson – we know he regularly got the “how” wrong and occasionally got the “what” wrong. This made us angry with him too.
etc.
And another
BoM one month ago “No rain until April”
The ministers gathered in Moree, in NSW’s northwest, to discuss the best strategies to combat the enduring drought.
etc.
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/
Active blog. Range of opinions
Are the bushfires a result of climate warming?
Bushfires have long been part of the Australian scene, but the recent outbreaks have been excessive.
https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/
Investors slam hard-line stance by rule-maker that could stop wind and solar projects
A group of 25 wind and solar investors representing more than $25 billion of current and future projects have slammed the Australian Energy Market Commission’s hardline stance on transmission losses, warning it will bring new investment to a halt, raise costs to consumers and put future energy supplies at risk.
If you want to bring down energy prices you have to build generators. The problem is not AEMC, the problem is lack of transmission lines. Government inaction. An Abbott legacy. This is the most significant blog entry for today.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/investors-slam-hard-line-stance-by-rule-maker-that-could-stop-wind-and-solar-projects-62541/
Full on historic climate change denier.
You think I’m the devils child and you branded me a climate change denier…
Man this is going to go viral. 17 views and it’s headed for thousands…
I can get the words in The captain ( Leonard Cohen’s ) out of my mind. “I risked my life, but not to hear Some country-western song.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3yvOn-E-Kw
http://joannenova.com.au/
New blog added to review list.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2, 2020, need something to balance the climate change denier
A distinguished group of authors led by Ljing Cheng bring us very sobering news, in Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019. Open access. This graph neatly captures the overall picture:
https://skepticalscience.com/
Low volume site, worth a listen
Season 1, Episode 3: Associate Professor Sandy O’Sullivan
In this episode we yarn about:
Their journey from being someone who left high school at age thirteen…and is now being a PhD holding, Associate Professor and Deputy Head of a School in a university! Imposter syndrome, Family, the power of museums that work and more!
https://blacademia.com/
High volume right wong site. He can string a sentance together. Worth a read.
Defence advised to walk away from French subs
A key adviser to the federal government was so concerned about the $80bn Future Submarine Project it warned Defence it should consider walking away from the French-built boats.
The f**kups are coming thick and fast.
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com/
Racial prejudice in Britain rises with unemployment
When I was a relatively junior academic, one of the things I was interested in was how labour market prejudice is influenced by the state of the economic cycle. This was a period when Australia was undergoing a deep recession (early 1990s) and it was clear that hostility to immigrants had risen during this period. I was interested to see whether this was related. The interest goes back to my postgraduate days when I was studying labour economics and we considered labour market discrimination in some detail. Then, it was clear from the literature, that employers who used racial profiling to screen job candidates would lose out if the labour market was strong, but could indulge their negative views about different racial groups without loss in times of recession. But we didn’t do much work on supply-side attitudes – that is, what do other workers think? In more recent times, I have done detailed research projects with mental health professionals studying the best way to provide job opportunities for young people with episodic illnesses. The research revealed that one of the problems in placing these workers in conventional workplaces is the prejudice that other workers displayed towards them. We worked on ways to attenuate that resistance. So I have had a long record of studying and being interested in these matters. In this blog post, I consider whether prejudice is counter-cyclical. In the UK, for example, the British Social Attitudes survey found that in 2014, around a third of British people were racially prejudiced and this ratio spiked during the GFC. Clearly, there are many factors contributing to this rather distasteful result, but if austerity is exacerbating the underlying factors, then we have another reason to oppose it. This research also bears on the Brexit debate.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/
I don’t know who Luke Grant is, but on the assumption he is a “shock jock” then ranting against the misbehaviour of ministers will be his stock in trade.
Minister McKenzie has not been more “corrupt” than various others (of both parties) although it does seem that her corruption has been rather more incompetent than is typical, at least at the national level.
Shock jocks will rant against people who do such things, but nothing will change since it is mostly the system which is bad. The system in this case provide incentives for this sort of corruption, and no disincentives against it, and it is only by correction of that imbalance, (for example by restoration of the traditional approach which prevailed until 1998) that the issue will be addressed. In particular, this is not an issue for a Commonwealth ICAC, although that may well be required to deal with criminal corruption (on which it should solely focus), which this is not.
C@t,
The Press Council upheld a complaint the Age when they published those claims.
But as we have seen time and again you jump into the same sewer Zanetti inhabits when you think you can score a cheap point.
Boerwar @ #2352 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 5:38 pm
Do they? It appears they no longer bother trying to hide it, or if they are trying, they’re hopelessly incompetent at it.
Anyway, I glanced casually at your compiled list of “crimes” committed by or on behalf of LNP members, but I didn’t notice either Indue or Parakeelia. Both of them outfits owned and operated by LNP maaates, who then donate part of their ill gotten gain back to the LNP.
Indue is particularly egregious. Apparently there’s not enough money to give Newstarve recipients an extra $3900 a year ($75 a week), however there’s no shortage of money to give Indue $12k a year to “administer” it.
Bucephalus @ #2316 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:39 pm
Sounds pretty damn basic to me.
Oh wow, they got access to your ‘unlimited’ internet!
That’s when they weren’t on call and working for the man though, eh?
You actually bought them food they liked to eat!?! Oh Bwana, how kind! And provided a meal if you went out to a restaurant for dinner!?!
They could have friends over!?! But not boys, of course. 🙄
And, of course, you charged them for all these ‘benefits’. Or, in the parlance, ‘deducted’ the costs from their wage.
But! But! You paternalistically condescend to them and say they are like daughters to you. How benevolent.
Rip off artist.
At least The Queen paid full freight. Or so my Great Aunt told me about the time she was Nanny to Charles, Andrew, Ann and Edward.
P1’s journey
1. Does a lot of slagging to help Kill Bill.
2. Post election, slags Labor’s policy. Slags it lots of times. Trouble was, Labor did not have a policy.
3. So, turns to slagging Labor for not having a policy, already.
4. Slags Labor some more with the motivation finally revealed: slags Labor in order to ‘help Labor’.
5. Slags Labor for being ‘too divided’ to have a policy.
6. Slags Labor because the Coalition might just have an epiphany and get a good emissions policy before Labor gets a good emissions policy.
7. Slags Coalition corruption? Nope. Slags Labor Bludger supporters? Yep.
8. When challenged directly to do so, finally slags the Coalition corruption, and then, inevitably to help Labor, slags Labor for not slagging the Coalition hard enough, already. Naughty Labor!
9. Slags another poster.
bakunin @ #2365 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 9:14 pm
Yes, yes, we know. RdN could ‘justify’ the deductibles. Doesn’t make it ethical though.
EGT
If her approvals were unlawful, and there are some grounds for believing this to be true, then without a doubt her behaviour has been more corrupt than that of other grant approvers.
Apart from anything else, there is evidence that the grants were made to appear conditional on voting for the Coalition.
Beyond that, if other people have been corrupt in the past this not justify McKenzie’s corruption. The notion that same old, same old exculpates is bs.
Boerwar:
That list is far too cumbersome to have a chance at being funny, and it isn’t. Whilst I appreciate the “lucky” / “unlucky” contrast has potential, it doesn’t work in the current form.
To respond to another poster – no, we clearly have not reached ‘peak stupid’ yet.
EGT
Fair comments. I have actually forgotten what corners were cut with some of those comments.
One reason that the phrasing is awkward is because I had half a mind to Mr Bowe not getting sued for defamation.
DP
Is Indue the one where the Party organisation gets a nice little kick back? Or is that something else?
Chief Justice Roberts, a G.W. Bush appointee, mettle will be sorely tested by a number of cases coming before the US Supreme Court this year apropos of the limits of presidential powers, other contentious issues – eg, Roe -v- Wade. With the appointments of Trump lackeys Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, the court is finely balanced. He’ll be tested. Will he go down as a Republican lackey too, or will he take a principled stand against untrammeled executive powers? Evidence that he’ll be balanced can be gleaned from his statement that Obama appointed judges are no different to Bush’s appointed judges – a rare dressing down to a serving president. Roberts has little say in Trump’s impeachment trial, but he does have the power reign in the powers of this out of control president.
FWIW
The real issue with the Black Wiggle is that he has failed to turn the worst drought, the worst bushfires, a biodiversity holocaust, the hottest ever year, the driest ever year, toxic urban smoke clouds, and a coal bearing and unpopular prime minister, into a massive swing of votes to the Greens.
The reasons for this are unclear. But the failure is stark.
Boerwar @ #2375 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 9:31 pm
Since the Greens and Labor both rose by almost exactly the same percentage, I guess this is also a stark failure for Labor?
Christ, I don’t know why I even bother. I’m not even a Green and I get fed up with this partisan bullshit.
Fires flaring up again here.
Good news folks,
The PM is embattled now according to the front page the mercury.
zoomster @ #2377 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 9:43 pm
Did you not get any rain?
I’m not even a Green,
Let me guess, you are a liberal or a national.
You sure sound like one.
Boerwar:
The defect (if there is one) is that whilst the Minister clearly has the power to make the (political.biased/corrupt) decisions she made and thus direct the expenditure of funds from the body corporate, it would seem that she did not use that power.
It is therefore unclear whether the directors/officers/whatever-they-are of the body corporate have acted properly in accepting the Minister’s direction.
This is principally an example of the species known as “incompetence” rather than an example of corruption.
The grants are made by the body corporate, from funds that have been transferred to it. The Minister is not involved in transferring the money to successful applicants, so if there is corruption in this part of the process it cannot be attributed to the Minister. The Minister has the power to direct the body corporate as to which grants to fund (and it seems she did not use this power correctly) and seemingly can use that power for any purpose at all, but that is the extent of her involvement.
The only relevant antecedent is the matter of Minister Kelly, who correctly had to resign. The problem is that the Minister in this case will not have to resign (due to the principle of ministerial responsibility having been abolished in the interim) at least not for the same reason (she may be forced out as part of internal National party fight, as several have observed).
If you want to fix the problem, then advocate for the return of ministerial responsibility (and also ministerial competence), rather than prattling on about corruption.
If it is indeed the case that the extent of Commonwealth government pork-barrelling is only $100m/annum, then that is an incredibly low level, and might reasonably be thought to be a minor problem.
Boerwar @ #2373 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:25 pm
Yep.
Actually, that’s something I hadn’t thought about. Who released the Auditor General’s report to the media? Does the Auditor General routinely release their reports publicly? Or did someone in the Cabinet who had seen it tip off the media?
Hmm.
Emergency notice.
C@tmomma @ #2383 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 6:54 pm
The ANAO released it:
https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/award-funding-under-the-community-sport-infrastructure-program
zoomster:
Did you get any of that rain yesterday?
Best wishes for tonight!
Hang in there, zoomster.
Oh well, there goes that conspiracy theory. Thanks, ‘fess.
P1
Not a drop.
Buffalo has flared right up. I’m not ultra concerned atm (there’s been fires where there are now in the past which haven’t come near us) but we’re getting ready.
It’s very still and quiet.
Player One:
I would like to say that my comment about peak stupid was not in any way a reference to citizen’s post immediately preceding it.
Ted:
Yes, dear.
Itza:
Maybe not the best interpretation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-74WzKsFzI
“Is Indue the one where the Party organisation gets a nice little kick back? Or is that something else?”
Indue is one where i am happy for it to just chug along for a while ………… and then have the hows, whys wheretofores and who’s examined at Senate Estimates with some polite questions from some of the better ALP performers like Wong and Keneally.
The Indue situation is far more likely to involve genuinely problematic corruption than is the sports grants rort.
Draw the graph – if it’s got both an ongoing source (i.e. recurrent funding or some other persistent supply of money) and also has cycles, then one very likely has a problem.
“Has a shortage of ground water been identified in the area? If it has then issuing the license is probably a bad decision. If there isn’t a problem with the ground water then what is the problem?”
Because the farmers have run out of surface water and are therefore drawing heavilly from the groundwater. Whether or not the groundwater levels are yet at dangerous levels is not clear, but surely the point is this is not a great time to put even more pressure on what is obviously a very precious supply for the local community, with, of all things, a freaking bottled water commercial venture.
Is there a separate thread for USA politics?
Big A:
Is it common for groundwater to be used in commercial bottled water?
It does not seem like it would be a marketing advantage, though I suppose that groundwater is better than grey water?
Police just came around, no sense of urgency but be ready to leave.
Fire is apparently burning back on itself, so a tense night might mean it’s all over Red Rover tomorrow.
Prob will spend the night at friends (not too far away) just in case…
https://www.ibm.com/blogs/research/2019/12/heavy-metal-free-battery/?fbclid=IwAR394udykashowkpxV8Ks88bAkj3StQGXKUUdugP4tRmfwewX8Ac2NAQqMg
The tech is moving on somewhat. 🙂