Time for a new thread. While I’m about it, two points about the bushfire crisis. To start with the obvious: it would be really interesting to see an opinion poll right now, but being what time of year it is, there are no polls to be had. Even if you remain skeptical-or-worse about the value of voting intention polling in the wake of last year’s debacle, some personal ratings on Scott Morrison would undoubtedly offer a helpful objective measure of how his image is bearing up after what has clearly been a tough couple of weeks. If you take your cues from social media, you may have concluded by now that Morrison’s career is as good as over. But if the last few years have taught us nothing else, it’s that that’s usually not a good idea. However, a News Corp pundit who generally doesn’t partake of the organisational kool-aid may have been on to something when he noted that this apprehension was “probably what tricked Morrison into thinking that all the outrage against him was confected and so he might as well go catch some rays”.
A second, less obvious point relates to an Eden-Monaro by-election that some readers of Canberra tea leaves assured us was on the cards, with one such ($) relating a view that Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”. These reports asserted that the by-election would be used by state Nationals leader John Barilaro to enter federal politics with a view to deposing struggling party leader Michael McCormack. But if it’s the case that the government has suffered a bushfire-related hit to its standing, the thought of taking on a Labor-held seat at a by-election may have lost its appeal. The once-bellwether seat covers some of the worst affected areas, including the town of Cobargo, where Morrison met a hostile reception on Thursday from locals who — depending on your right-wing news source of choice — are either in no way representative of the town, or all too representative of it.
The New York Times is on to Rupert.
———————————,
How Rupert Murdoch Is Influencing Australia’s Bushfire Debate
Critics see a concerted effort to shift blame, protect conservative leaders and divert attention from climate change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/world/australia/fires-murdoch-disinformation.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
Dramatic Images From Australia’s Bushfires Show The Country’s Incredible Suffering
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/australia-bushfires-images_au_5e16601dc5b61f701948cee6?utm_hp_ref=au-news
I see that Mr Monbiot is catching up.
Our species is heading towards vat food.
One trusts that those doing the breeding trials are not using GMOs:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/08/lab-grown-food-destroy-farming-save-planet
‘The Australian Greens want:
A moratorium on the further release of GMOs into the environment until there is an adequate scientific understanding of their long term impact on the environment, human and animal health. This includes the removal as far as possible of GMOs from Australian agriculture while the moratorium is in place.’
bushfire conditions are going to worsen today In Victoria, overnight and then be at peak danger levels tomorrow.
Hence why state of disaster extended for another 48 hours.
Hopefully people take heed and are not complacent.
The crisis is far from over.
Victoria
Yes. Which is why claiming the LNP can go back to business as usual is not understanding what is happening.
You hit on it precisely. Dan Andrews has been impressive in his role in contrast with Morrison. Of course thats a low bar but not meant as an insult of Andrews.
“guytaursays:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 11:27 am”
I’m going to address a couple of points
“You highlight the losses of many centrist and lump it in with strong progressive voices and say see thats why progressives don’t win.”
This is where we disagree – the people I see as having lost from opposition are those who took on some aspects of more radical progressive policies. The Corbyn manifesto was widely recognised as being quite radical. The ALP review identified the issues which cost it the election as being the ones where it took, or was percieved as taking, a particularly progressive stance (franking credits, death duties).
The only people on the left who have won from opposition recently have been fairly centrist.
I’ll see you your Andrews and raise you a McGowan. McGowan had to overcome a much more hostile local media to win.
“Yet Daniel Andrews being strong and saying to the LNP no I won’t stop a freeway because you claim Sovereign Risk won from opposition.”
I’ll give you that one policy – but the rest of the campaign was fairly straightforward pitch to competence. He also had a fairly low bar to clear.
“My point regarding Sanders was not his message but the results. Results which are different from Corbyn. Corbyn did not change the debate. It was all Brexit all the way.”
I am looking at Sanders results – he didn’t even win the primary. He changed the debate so much that we now have Trump.
Winning from opposition and winning from government are different things.
guytaur:
[‘See the nzherald story. I think due to that your hope is happening. At least on social media. I have not heard anything yet on the MSM in Australia.’]
Thanks. It would make an excellent authorised mural on the sidewall of a pub. It really encompasses everything that’s crook about Morrison.
Blobbitt
Of course you are selective in your criteria. You say English speaking so you can exclude Europe. An entire continent of politics.
Plenty of strong progressive government wins there. Strong messages too.
Even just look at Merkel. A strong message. I am talking about how you get to win government not how you govern.
To win you have to fight. Even Albo recognises this with his slogan of Fighting Tories.
The things you mention are the reasons why the message was not strong. Corbyn lost because like Labor (on coal) he was on the fence on Brexit. When he finally came to a sensible position it had been forced on him. At least looking from outside. Voters saw that and voted for the strong clear message encapsulated in the slogan Get Brexit Done.
Its probably why the Australian Institute has changed the way its advocating about coal.
Now they have the slogan They pay or We Pay. Pretty good as slogans go and gets the message across agree with their levy on coal to pay for the bushfires or not.
Victoria @ #3247 Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 10:32 am
Murdoch doesn’t want an actual war with Iran. That would interfere with the profitable burning of fossil-fuels.
@GovGoogles
should check if anyone die in a fire before tell ppl im happy nobody die
Meghan’s getting the right royal treatment. Next, they’ll be likening her to Wallis Simpson:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7866007/Harry-Meghan-step-senior-royals-financially-independent.html
In relation to the Ukranian plane that crashed in Iran – it is important to note that most of the Canadian citizens and the Iranian citizens were the same thing.
i.e. Iranians coming back from Canada in the holidays to see their family and going back to Canada with this flight.
“Guytaur says:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 11:46 am
Blobbitt
Of course you are selective in your criteria. You say English speaking so you can exclude Europe. An entire continent of politics.”
Because as far as I can see, the English speaking world is currently a lot further to the right than continental Europe. Policies that work there aren’t going to necessarily work in the Anglo-sphere, particularly in the short term.
I actually think it’s quite important that there are voices who are promoting left progressive policies. It does make those policies seem more acceptable to the electorate. As a long term activity, it can work – but that’s the effort of 3 or 4 election cycles.
What I don’t think is going to work is for a left party to win from opposition with a platform that is viewed as being economically radical – not in the short term.
But let’s take one point of “being strong” – death tax. I know it wasn’t actually a policy, but with all the right’s propaganda, it was eventually treated as if it were an actual policy by a large group. Did that “radical” policy cause people to actually vote FOR the ALP?
guytaur
“Corbyn lost because like Labor (on coal) he was on the fence on Brexit. ”
No. But I can understand why you would want this to be true.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/12/uk-2019-win-for-polls-and-tories.html
“Damage control attempts that seek to blame the loss wholly on Brexit should not be put up with. “
guytaur (Block)
Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 8:46 am
Comment #3258
It’s actually a very good divider as it removes things that may reflect cultural differences.
You like your broad brush statements that take no account of these differences. It’s like the way you latch onto anything that has “Green” in its name and try to apply it here, especially when it has been pointed out to you that many of the “Green” Parties in Europe are very different politically to the Greens here in Australia.
Bobbitt
The way I view it is that when the LNP say Labor kowtows to the Greens on the environment they are portraying Labor as weak. Not able to stand up for themselves. Then Labor caves to the LNP proving the weak argument.
Thats why I see Labor losing.
See Warren falling and Harris in the US primaries. Its the same thing. Put under pressure they caved at least in perception and the results are clear.
Biden and Sanders have strong clear messages and they are the two front runners.
Neither have the same policy appeal to voters.
Holden Hillbilly @ #3262 Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 8:54 am
I think you meant to say that Iran doesn’t recognise the renouncing of citizenship, so if an Iranian becomes a citizen of another Country, Iran still considers that they are Iranian, so Iran would count those people as Iranian, whilst we would consider them Canadian. 🙂
“guytaur says:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 11:58 am
Biden and Sanders have strong clear messages and they are the two front runners.
Neither have the same policy appeal to voters.”
To some extent I actually agree – I think it is easier to some extent to sell a policy simply by force of personality, for want of a better term. I don’t think it is sufficient though.
Back to the Death Tax – why do you think that played so badly amongst those who believed it was a firm ALP policy? Or franking credits? Remember, the polls at the time said we were all concerned about income inequality, and both those policies were viewed as being clear, firm ALP policies.
Morrison’s expert on global heating doubles down:
[‘Liberal MP hits out at “lefty trolls” in sarcastic post
Craig Kelly, the Liberal MP who clashed with Piers Morgan over Australia’s bushfire crisis on British breakfast TV this week, has posted a strongly-worded message for “lefty trolls” on Facebook.
Mr Kelly has been involved in a back-and-forth on social media with British meteorologist Laura Tobin after his appearance on Good Morning Britain.
Since the fiery interview, he’s been particularly active on social media and overnight he posted a sarcastic message and meme for the “lefty trolls” he says have been commenting on his posts.
“A special thanks to all my new found lefty troll friends,” he wrote in the post.
“Firstly, thanks for demonstrating how brainwashed you are, and your inability to articulate a single logical alternate argument shows that you are losing the debate.
“And secondly, and more importantly, thanks for helping spread the facts and the data which undermines your simplistic groupthink and cultish beliefs.
“For every time you post a ‘comment’ this helps with the Facebook algorithms and results in the facts in my posts appearing on more and more people’s newsfeeds.
“So please keep up the good work.”]
BoerWar,
Jeremy Rifkin started the anti-GMO push in the 1980s, and he makes it clear GMO refers specifically to introducing trans-species genetic material.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/interview/jeremy-rifkin-number-two-cause-of-global-warming-emissions-animal-husbandry/
My understanding is that Greens are talking about trans-species gene transfer, not selection of genes within species as is being done with the NZ cattle “genetic modification” for example.
Blobbitt
It was a weakness in accepting the tax cut argument. Labor was able to be attacked for being for higher taxes. So the false narrative took over. Of course if Labor had been for higher taxes it might have had the same effect. My guess is that Labor at least would have had a counter out to the false narrative which they did not with the Facebook campaign. That way the impact would have been less.
As it was Labor was blindsided from right field with no counter in place for that campaign.
So there was nothing in the bubble for the low information voters to at least question what they saw.
Evidently there is a video of Scotty on KI yesterday saying “luckily we’ve had no loss of life” when two died on the weekend.
What a dickhead.
They’re grading a containment line just to the west of our road. They’re worried about Friday. The nice lady fire-woman Kate explained that they take care, lay down fences where they can, but otherwise on she goes, and roughly where and why they are doing it. I guess that’s what a State of Emergency means, and good for it.
We’ve had a massive clean up, the roof is leafless perfect (again!), and I’ve got a big watering job done.
Life’s what happens when you’re cleaning up. (To paraphrase Madonna or someone)
Back to Sydney soon; everyone is getting out before tomorrow.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jenB7hYnnm8/XhZ9vz8drJI/AAAAAAAAGzk/rHL252g_H_cCK5MiSIPUDrssjES9J5A1gCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/82519298_863017504135104_734454577440489472_n.jpeg
(not my photo – I think it is Bundanoon oval. I hear units have been deployed there and Penrose ready for Friday)
Not Sure:
Whilst unfortunately this is true one needs to be clear that in addition to being true it is both unfortunate and highly undesirable.
Somehow we need to get to the point where success in business is achieved through the combination of better dealings with customers, better products and services and more efficient systems and processes.
Currently the success or otherwise of many Australian business is being determined principally by financial arrangements, including tax structures. This cannot* end well.
John Button believed that by the mid 19990s Australia for the first time finally had the beginnings of a private entrepreneurial economy undertaking actual business involving prodction. Sadly that was destroyed by Messrs Howard and Costello in favour of real estate speculation.
* In principle one could have an export industry in the creation of tax avoidance structures. However the logic of such an exporter is to be based in a tax haven, and this is what one observes.
I fully understand Harry and Meaghan stepping down as ‘senior royals’ and avoid unceasing fete openings etc. But maybe not take the USD$40 million dollar wedding first.
b
The Australian Greens policy statement makes none of the distinctions that you are making. In fact the policy statement is quite clear and, grammatically, is clearly intended to include all GMOs.
I assume that this gung ho sloppiness is because the real enemies here, as perceived by the Greens policy makers, are ideological enemies such as the Monsantos of the world.
One of the political byproducts of this is that the Greens will never get much more than a few per cent in regional and rural electorates. At one level, this does not matter. Because, despite the assertions of Di Natale, the Greens have no current intention of garnering enough votes to form government in their own right. At the same level, this sort of policy dogwhistles to their inner urban red raggers.
The other political consequence is that, to the extent both the Coalition and the Greens succeed in tagging Labor as Greens Lite, to that extent Labor’s regional vote suffers from policies such as the Greens’ GMO policy.
Labor got smashed in the regions partly for these sorts of reasons.
The policy consequence to date is that reasonable concerns in relation to GMOs are not addressed because the Coalition does not want them to be addressed.
So, we have yet another political blind alley for good policy.
““Damage control attempts that seek to blame the loss wholly on Brexit should not be put up with. “
I used to think this too, but when analysing the seats that decided the election, I actually think its pretty much all down to brexit.
I say “brexit” – but really its just a nebulous term that represents all the issues that make up the social and economic divide in UK today. When Johnson says “lets get Brexit done” ad infinitum, he is not really talking about signing some papers that changes the membership of the EU – he is really talking about sticking it to the out of touch chattering elites. To what end? No one really said – but they are out of touch, and elite, and they just want talkfests instead of rolling up their sleeves and “just get brexit done” – so it must be worth voting for.
The constituencies that voted on this exact theme – working class people in the so called ‘red belt’ – is where the election was won and lost. You can argue about other areas in determining the size of the win (ie labour didn’t pick up any progressive tory seats, except one, as widely expected). But that didn’t decide the outcome of the election – the slaughter in the red belt did.
Everything else – antisemitism, Corbyn, nationalisation – were red herrings IMO.
It literally was all about brexit.
Rick Wilsons had enough from one twitter heckler :
Americanist Al @AlanAshton10
Have you started treatment for TDS yet? I imagine you are one of those that hate Trump so much you’ll be eulogizing and humanizing an Iranian terrorist.
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
Rick Wilson Retweeted Americanist Al
Did you work hard to be this much of a moron, or are you the product of a combination of enthusiastic inbreeding and a mother who spent her pregnancy huffing paint thinner while servicing her other clients in a truckstop bathroom?
( *TDS – Trump Derangement Syndrome )
“guytaursays:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 12:07 pm
It was a weakness in accepting the tax cut argument. Labor was able to be attacked for being for higher taxes….”
Wasn’t higher taxes, at least on the rich, an actual policy of the progressive left? And it was rejected?
According to Morrison, there have been no deaths resulting from the fires on Kangaroo Island:
https://www.news.com.au/national/pm-scott-morrisons-embarrassing-moment-on-kangaroo-island/news-story/f2c9f77b341df235c2f53a18d43a0f54
‘nath says:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 12:16 pm
I fully understand Harry and Meaghan stepping down as ‘senior royals’ and avoid unceasing fete openings etc. But maybe not take the USD$40 million dollar wedding first.’
I have no sympathy for Super Class parasites.
The nanosecond I learned that Meghan was a yank AND a person of colour I knew that this would be very, very nasty. And so it has turned out. It is clear that they have been bastardized by a bevy of the best of british bastardizers. None better, old chap.
Apparently Harry also has a dread of assassination.
IMO, they have learned and are adapting.
I hope they succeed.
The Netherlands, No.2 agricultural exporter in the world do pretty well with stringent GMO laws:
Dutch firms are among the world leaders in the seed business, with close to $1.7 billion worth of exports in 2016. Yet they market no GMO products. A new seed variety in Europe’s heavily regulated GMO arena can cost a hundred million dollars and require 12 to 14 years of research and development, according to KeyGene’s Arjen van Tunen. By contrast, the latest achievements in the venerable science of molecular breeding—which introduces no foreign genes—can deliver remarkable gains in five to 10 years, with development costs as low as $100,000 and seldom more than a million dollars. It is a direct descendant of methods employed by farmers in the Fertile Crescent 10,000 years ago.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/09/holland-agriculture-sustainable-farming/
Posted by Mavis 11:04 (Qld Time)
We all have our buttons. FB is one of mine. What I find interesting about Kelly’s words is that even he is aware of the role of FB algorithms in spreading misinformation, and that he loves it. He may not know what an algorithm is but he knows they help him. And from that I infer FB algorithms are an important component of LNP messaging.
Can’t argue with that.
Big A Adrian
“Everything else – antisemitism, Corbyn, nationalisation – were red herrings IMO.
It literally was all about brexit.”
I disagree. Corbyn is a dud. His policies are a dud. Blaming Brexit is a nice way of letting Corbyn off the hook.
Blobbitt
The LNP ran on Labor higher taxes reckless spending. Cuts jobs bad for the economy.
See we are the better economic managers.
Labor had tax cuts in its package. Voters had no clue.
So if you are going to be the party of tax and spend make it your strength.
Keating did it with Hewson.
Hewson talked efficient collection of taxes. Making it simpler for business. Thats why the cake question was so devastating it showed the tax was not simple and efficient.
Keating did not rely on this. He campaigned on the spend part of the tax and spend with Medicare and we don’t want to have American style healthcare.
Frankly I am surprised that BW would go against the leading Dutch thinkers on GMO products. I am afraid that he would not be welcome at Wageningen University.
Kronomex
Appears to be Damian Cantwell, a retired Brigadier who has presumably been reactivated. He is also the brother of John Cantwell, a retired Major General who is one of those unusual general officers who started as a Private and made it most of the way up (Field Marshal Sir William Robertson went all the way from private to Field Marshal…)
It’s OK. It is only a minor embarrassment. You know…. ‘oooops, ha ha, oh that ScoMo’.
Kakaru
Corbyn failed to say I am not one of the elite. Thats why it was Brexit. Instead he and Labour were painted as the elite.
Only able to happen when trust is broken.
No amount of reality was able to overcome the fantasy.
Mr Eton Boris Johnson hardly a member of the working class.
I’d rather she changed her opinions than provided money, frankly. I feel as if she’s just buying us off while she continues to support the wrong side.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/gina-rinehart-hits-back-at-celeste-barbers-criticism-over-bushfires/news-story/c2307ec1126e4af5e04741f75df02beb
“Guytaur
Thats why the cake question was so devastating it showed the tax was not simple and efficient.”
No, it was effective before he made it a personal cost. People were worried about what it would cost them.
The lesson there seems to be to appeal to pure greed.
Sorry, left this bit out.
Therese Rein has picked up that story on the firies compo criteria and likely exclusion of probably the vast majority of firies from any compo, at least in Qld. Haven’t seen any criteria or reports from other states.
After all this who will be getting their books and documentation together in order to prove they lost income between 9 am and 5 pm for more than 10 days due to fighting fires, just for their first few bucks?
Seems the govt will spend more on admin and checking how to not fork out anything, than actually providing any compensation to firies.
They hate bureaucracy, except when it comes to actually providing support to actual citizens of their own country. Someone also quipped what about robodebt if they claim too much?
Same for other compo for the general public or businesses, as P1 also suggested, if you’re outside whatever strict or ridiculous criteria they set, nothing.
@Therese_Rein
Replying to @MeckeringBoy @StephanieKakos1
@ScottMorrisonMP I think it would be helpful to clarify if these are in fact the rules of the volunteer firefighter payment scheme. Is that what you intended? Because the headlines from your announcement told a very different story.
https://twitter.com/Therese_Rein/status/1215039599086469122
Bobbitt
You wonder why people don’t trust politicians. Most voters are reasonable and would see the complication as the problem.
Remember not too long after these same voters rejected complicated wholesale taxes for the GST. They were sold simple and efficient.
Labor’s complicated but fair message failed.
Edit: To make my point clear. Labor had a simple message about the carbon price. Corporations pay. Abbott came along with his 3 word slogans and turned that into the simple you pay higher taxes.
Mining that long held narrative that Labor is tax and spend.
Mavis
Meghan’s getting the right royal treatment. Next, they’ll be likening her to Wallis Simpson:
—————-
Marrying yanks seems to bring misfortune to the Royal Family.
“Guytaur
Mining that long held narrative that Labor is tax and spend.”
Which kinda is a progressive policy – redistribution. That’s my point, it isn’t popular. You’re not going to win government by pushing this as a policy.
At least not in the short term. Maybe over the next 20 years we can shift the debate enough. A faster way is to get into government, then slowly implement these policies by stealth.
When I see BW lambast the Greens I feel it is projected criticism of his own homeland of the Netherlands. In fact many Green policies have been taken from polices well established in the Netherlands. The Netherlands inspires Green ideology elsewhere.
Blobbitt
Keating no raving radical leftie was able to sell tax and spend. That’s because Keating knew it was coming. So he played to the strength in that.
Call it greed if you like. He appealed to voters by pointing out the same thing Warren and Sanders are saying. You pay for access under the US system.
Or as Bill Shorten put it your credit card should not decide your health care.
Despite the distrust Shorten too did best with the “Mediscare” in the previous election.
This graph is getting a bit of coverage recently. (I think I’ve seen it on ABC, 9fax and Guardian.) It’s good data visualisation. But. Does anyone know why the average was calculated for 1960-1990, and not the entire 1910-2019?