Time for a new thread. While I’m about it, two points about the bushfire crisis. To start with the obvious: it would be really interesting to see an opinion poll right now, but being what time of year it is, there are no polls to be had. Even if you remain skeptical-or-worse about the value of voting intention polling in the wake of last year’s debacle, some personal ratings on Scott Morrison would undoubtedly offer a helpful objective measure of how his image is bearing up after what has clearly been a tough couple of weeks. If you take your cues from social media, you may have concluded by now that Morrison’s career is as good as over. But if the last few years have taught us nothing else, it’s that that’s usually not a good idea. However, a News Corp pundit who generally doesn’t partake of the organisational kool-aid may have been on to something when he noted that this apprehension was “probably what tricked Morrison into thinking that all the outrage against him was confected and so he might as well go catch some rays”.
A second, less obvious point relates to an Eden-Monaro by-election that some readers of Canberra tea leaves assured us was on the cards, with one such ($) relating a view that Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”. These reports asserted that the by-election would be used by state Nationals leader John Barilaro to enter federal politics with a view to deposing struggling party leader Michael McCormack. But if it’s the case that the government has suffered a bushfire-related hit to its standing, the thought of taking on a Labor-held seat at a by-election may have lost its appeal. The once-bellwether seat covers some of the worst affected areas, including the town of Cobargo, where Morrison met a hostile reception on Thursday from locals who — depending on your right-wing news source of choice — are either in no way representative of the town, or all too representative of it.
If the ADF is rolled out as well and expansively as Morrison’s PR machine we’ll be over the bushfires in no time!
‘a r says:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 9:34 am
poroti @ #3118 Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 6:58 am
No need for a “target” person on the plane. It happened a few hours after the Iranian rocket strike. Iranian air defence people would have been on extreme alert for US retaliation. Easy to imagine someone got an itchy trigger finger.
Doesn’t really make sense though. The plane took off from an Iranian airport, and came down two minutes later while still over Tehran. And was full of Iranians.
For Iran to have shot it down someone would need to have an itchy trigger finger and be facing backwards with their eyes closed.’
The Iranians figure that the first thing the US would do in any hot war is to destroy Iranian centralized command and control. This is central to US war doctrine. And the Iranians know they can’t stop the US from doing it.
Since the Iranians base most of their war planning on assymetrical warfare, and since they know any centralized command and control will be severely compromised, the Iranians have heavily decentralized command and control. (Another work around is to use despatch riders on motorbikes. There is no electronic trail. It is virtually impossible to stop all motorbikes.)
The corollary of the Iranian arrangements is that individual commanders have wide latitude and high expectations on them when it comes to decision making.
This being the middle east, and there being almost no verifiable facts and there being many parties with an interest in lying about the incident, many theories will be developed to explain the crash.
But, given the context the most likely explanation is that an Iranian local commander made a bad decision.
Mavis
Yep. Stupid is as stupid does.
@ChristiaanVanV tweets
“If you ignore the science when you build a bridge, the bridge falls down. If you ignore the science when you build a plane, the plane crashes.”
– Professor Ross Garnaut, Economist
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 6:51 am
…”Yeah, whatever, Mr Arrogant Know-It-All. Actually been in the same room with a member of the proletariat this century? Would you know one if you fell over one? (Though you probably think of worker ants that serve you, like your accountant, as such). Yet you claim to know their minds.
Honestly, dude, you are probably one of these nouveau riche types that thinks because they can decipher a Howard and Costello or Coalition government tax break or loophole, or get their accountant to, and sock the profits away in their SMSF, own a string of investment properties that you negatively gear, receive Franking Credits, or run a non-profit-making business, or that you have learned how to phoenix a business, that you are smarter than the rest of us.
Then you think that gives you the unalloyed right to abuse those of us whose life hasn’t turned out to be, for any one of an infinite number of reasons, as favoured as yours.
You’ve just lucked into your success, Not Sure. But you don’t have the guts or good grace to admit it.
#OKBoomer”…
…………………….
Every single one of your assumptions (apart from the know-it-all slur) is completely incorrect.
0 negatively geared investment properties.
0 self managed super funds.
0 franking credits.
0 times voted for the LNP.
Last voted Green (Federally) in the 1990’s.
Working class Labor/Labour voting family (both sides).
At least a decade younger than you so NOT a boomer.
Not rich (new money or otherwise) and I certainly didn’t get anything I have through bloody luck, just like all working class people.
I dont really understand the principle of phoenexing but I’m pretty sure people like me couldn’t afford the lawyers to achieve it.
Anyone running a business who doesn’t show a loss at least 3 years out of 5 isn’t doing it right and needs to fuck off and re-join the slave classes.
You are wrong about me, just like you are wrong about pretty much everything else.
Also you are a presumptuous wanker.
Have a nice fucking day!
Everybody knows the cost of the Payout figure for Scomo.
@fess -9:11am:
That is the third staged photo of Smoko standing over a map with uniformed defence personnel that I’ve seen in the past 36 hours.
We can expect at least two such photo ops of Generalissimo Morrison a day until he personally, single handed, wins his war.
All four factions of the LNP propaganda machine – Murdoch, 9Faix, Seven West and Their ABC will ‘do their bit’ for the war effort. How good is that!
@lynlinking tweets
Scott Morrison corrected after embarrassing blunder on Kangaroo Island, via @nzherald Scott Morrison has been left red-faced after telling residents on Kangaroo Island it was lucky no-one died in the region’s devastating exp bushfires last week https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12299008
Alpha Zero:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 10:10 am
That’s one of the most attractive pics of Dutton I’ve seen.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 10:12 am
@fess -9:11am:
That is the third staged photo of Smoko standing over a map with uniformed defence personnel that I’ve seen in the past 36 hours.
___________________________________
I am surprised there isn’t a dozen flags behind him too to complete the look…
@MayneReport tweets
Gina Rinehart goes public as a climate change denier – not a wise move for a fossil fuels billionaire at this point in time. https://twitter.com/MayneReport/status/1215023242995355648/photo/1
SNIP
Re. Morrison surrounding himself with khaki:
There’s only one senior officer who’d have the guts to tell Morrison that which he doesn’t wish to hear and that person is the CDF, General Angus Campbell, not because he’s particularly outspoken but because he’s reached the highest rank he can achieve. Given all other officers’ promotions from one-star rank and above are signed off by Cabinet, most will be on guard not to get on the wrong side of Morrison and his senior ministers. And even if Campbell was to get a bit too mouthy, like he did when he pulled up Pyne at a presser*, Morrison wouldn’t sack the CDF as it would be his political death knell. Over to you, Angus.
https://theprint.in/world/why-australias-defence-chief-pulled-out-3-of-his-officers-from-a-press-conference/214186/
@NickFalk tweets
“The appalling response to this crisis in Australia isn’t an aberration. Like the fires themselves, it’s the product of years of adverse conditions — a dominant conservative press, a powerful fossil fuel lobby, a class of politicians in the thrall of both” https://theoutline.com/post/8508/australia-fires-climate-change-response?zd=1&zi=l7d6dskh
@MayneReport tweets
Maurice Newman and The OZ attack The New York Times… https://twitter.com/MayneReport/status/1215054936783769600/photo/1
“guytaursays:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 9:23 am
@TheAusInstitute tweets
Almost two thirds of Australians believe the country is facing a climate emergency…”
Did they all of anyone was going to change their vote?
Remember, at the last election the ALP believed people were worried about inequality. They introduced some mild policies to address it.
That worked well didn’t it.
Blobbit
The problem was mild. Labor was accused of being extreme and reckless. At least if they had been strong they could have had a crystal clear message.
That might have cut through the bubble. Like Sanders did in 2016 and 2019.
He might not win but there is no doubt he has changed the US political debate.
Thats more than Labor has done so far.
guytaur
Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 10:23 am
Comment #3121
Fair crack of the whip fellas – I cain’t take much more – although this photo ⏬⏬⏬
Has encouraged me to download the “Wolf Hall” TV series.
What’s brought this on – nobody has asked. Yesterday I watched an episode recorded some time ago where Thomas More was executed for not taking the oath of succession.
The lineup of heads (not a pretty sight) in the top photo blends very well into my line of imaginary solutions to the current contretemps and BS campaigns waged by the ………………………..(room for favourite) party/ies.
Big day today. A couple of hours day release. Quelle excitement. 😵😲
“guytaursays:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 10:47 am
…
That might have cut through the bubble. Like Sanders did in 2016 and 2019.
….”
Eh? If that’s success, with Trump president and all that’s happened since, then I’d rather the alternative.
You make the same mistake as Momentum – making the extreme enthusiastic isn’t enough.
TPOF
says:
I really thought you meant it, so for once I didn’t scroll past.
But it was the same old shit. You’re a bigger fucking lying fraud than scummo
___________________________________
Settle down FOPT or you will receive a warning.
A veey senior UK officer who came up against Soleimani writes a bit of a “careful what you wish for” article re the assassination of the Iranian general.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/qassem-soleimani-death-politics-iran-middle-east-trump-uk-a9274296.html
nath
I am waiting for BB to call out TPOF for hurling insults and calling others names lol Though he really needs to rant and rave about his own behaviour first.
KayJay
That photo of our “leaders” is the most revolting collage I’ve seen. Criminals every one.
Blobbitt
Always with you the excuses. I was very careful not to overstate it.
To predict Trump will win at this stage is crazy brave. Just as it is to predict who will win the Democratic nomination.
None of which I have done. I have just pointed out a reality of how someone has cut through with a hostile press. Sanders has turned the US into a country that can accept a socialist as a mainstream candidate for President.
Thats huge change.
Pegasus
says:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 10:57 am
nath
I am waiting for BB to call out TPOF for hurling insults and calling others names lol Though he really needs to rant and rave about his own behaviour first.
________________________________
I have heard 3 year old’s are using the internet now but I had no idea they were getting into politics. 🙂
New Zealand charts fourth hottest year
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6572813/new-zealand-charts-fourth-hottest-year/?cs=14232&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
So where the bloody hell is SmocoNero today?
nath
What I love about TPOF he comes across as so pure and sanctimonious when he whinges about the ‘tenor’ of PB discourse while at the same time he posts such a delightful post to Mundo.
Sarah Hanson-Young says she sent a tweet last night about the environmental catastrophe and death of so many animals, and most of the replies were people asking “who is the Environment Minister?”
Very good question, IMO.
Senior military officers and political leaders often have fraught relationships, the best example of which in relatively recent times is Truman and MacArthur. Their dislike of each other is well-documented. There have been occasions, however, where relations between a political leader and a high ranking officer have been quite close. For instance, on the day VADM Mike Hudson retired as the Chief of Naval Staff in ’91, Bob Hawke promoted him to full admiral, with the result that his pension was measurably increased. Promotion on the day of retirement is to the best of my knowledge unprecedented evidencing that both men got on rather well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Hudson_(admiral)
“What I love about TPOF he comes across as so pure and sanctimonious when he whinges about the ‘tenor’ of PB discourse while at the same time he posts such a delightful post to Mundo.”
William, tell me how this post helps; or makes this site a place one wants to visit.
This type of cowardly sniggering is really a turn off.
Lynchpin
Its a fair enough comment when you consider the whole “tenor of the blog” argument.
For discussion to happen it has to be of more than one point of view.
KayJay:
That pic of Morrison with his fellow travelers is a beauty. I hope it’s widely circulated
Some people are frustrated at the ABC over their alleged political bias. I’m frustrated at them over their obsession with the fucking royals. Two separate interviews in the space of half an hour on RN breakfast, and the leading story on AM.
FFS….
Misinformation Is Spreading Online About The Aussie Bushfires. Here’s What’s Real And What’s False.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/cameronwilson/unverified-false-information-list-australian-bushfires
Mavis
See the nzherald story. I think due to that your hope is happening. At least on social media. I have not heard anything yet on the MSM in Australia.
Lynchpin’s bias is obvious in singling out my comment. It’s another way of saying STFU to a non-Laborite voice.
Big A Adrian
Easy story instead of having to wrestle with political outcome of Morrison’s muckups.
I don’t know why anyone’s excited. The monarchy is well supplied with two more generations and it won’t affect Australia in the slightest.
‘World’s worst’ measles outbreak kills 6,000 people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-09/measles-outbreak-kills-6000-people-in-congo/11854202
Medicins Sans Frontieres:
https://www.msf.org/massive-mobilisation-urgently-needed-curb-fast-spreading-measles-outbreak-drc
OK, noted Guytaur. However, if a lot of this blog is now dedicated to swipes at each while discussing the tenor of the blog, then that’s just too ridiculous for words.
People should grow up and focus on issues, not each other.
No wonder our polity is in such a mess. It probably should have been obvious to me that personality politics, which dominates the political landscape, would also dominate this blog.
I have been a long time lurker, and there are many contributions that I very much value. However, the tiresome name calling and point scoring is a really dampener; and reflects one of the main reasons I don’t visit here as much as I use to.
All the best William.
nath says:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 11:00 am
…”I have heard 3 year old’s are using the internet now but I had no idea they were getting into politics”…
…………
TPOF isn’t 3, he is in fact very, very old and was once a regular commenter on the Guardian (T.P.O.F. is the initials of his avatar but I cant remember what it was)
If you think his contributions here a bit OTT you should have seen the way he carried on over there.
He once accused me of being a “raving conservative loon” because I said something slightly less than favorable about Gillard.
Strangely reminiscent of someone else I know.
Big A
I like it this time. Some bravery of two people telling the establishment to go and rack off.
Particularly hard when its family.
Given that quite a few monarchists in Australia are climate deniers, the royal families recent forays into climate action might be sending them republicans
Here in Victoria……..
Premier Daniel Andrews has extended the state of disaster by 48 hours
Hot weather and strong winds will heighten the fire threat tomorrow
There are 23 fires burning in Victoria and 13 ‘watch and act’ alerts
More than 1.2 million hectares have been burnt and 244 homes destroyed
Air quality in Melbourne is forecast to drop to “very poor”
“guytaursays:
Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 11:00 am
Blobbitt
Always with you the excuses. I was very careful not to overstate it.”
What excuse? Noting that the ALP and Labour both lost in recent electrons isn’t an excuse, it’s recognising what happened.
Not sure why you need to make it personal, btw.
Also, I’m didn’t say Trump would win the 2020 election. What I did say was that Sanders actions at the last election, which you viewed as a positive, didn’t result in a progressive winning.
The only progressives who have won elections in the English speaking world recently have either been centrists or at best lucky (Adhern).
Though to be honest, I don’t find Adhern all that radical.
lizzie @ #3132 Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 10:58 am
Its quite funny in a severe left handed way. Ms. Reinhart as the bleeding heart (coal replacement) and with a beatific smile.
Over and out.
Pegasus, I won’t get into a slanging match with you, but I feel I need to respond to your comment.
I don’t know what your politics are. I couldn’t care less whether you are a “non-Laborite”.
I couldn’t be bothered going back over the thread to work out who started what. I was not singling you out. I quoted your comment because it underscored the point I was making. No doubt these conflagrations take two to tango.
Having said all of that, your response to my post completely underscores the views I have expressed.
I wish you all the best.
Blobbitt
You highlight the losses of many centrist and lump it in with strong progressive voices and say see thats why progressives don’t win.
Yet Daniel Andrews being strong and saying to the LNP no I won’t stop a freeway because you claim Sovereign Risk won from opposition.
The point I made was about Labor being strong. If Labor is to be for coal be strong about it. If Labor is going to be for the environment be strong about it. Same for equality.
Have a strong message. In fact the review said exactly that. Labor did not have a strong clear message that cut through to the “low information voters”.
My point regarding Sanders was not his message but the results. Results which are different from Corbyn. Corbyn did not change the debate. It was all Brexit all the way.
lynchpin
“I don’t know what your politics are. I couldn’t care less whether you are a “non-Laborite”.”
Such innocence. Of course you singled me out. Why didn’t you riff off TPOF’s comment which was posted only a short while before mine?
A long time lurker and you don’t know what my politics are, seriously?
iirc you are a Laborite. You used to post more frequently but went over to that other place over the road.
My last comment on this.
Worth watching. Not even GOP members are buying Trumps strategy.
More surprising it aired on fox news.
Joshua Potash
@JoshuaPotash
Wow.
Fox just aired Republican Senator Mike Lee ripping into the briefing that he just received on Iran.
He calls the idea that Trump’s approach should not be debated “absolutely insane.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1215029867244331008