Burning questions

To keep things ticking over, some factless musings on the bushfire situation.

Time for a new thread. While I’m about it, two points about the bushfire crisis. To start with the obvious: it would be really interesting to see an opinion poll right now, but being what time of year it is, there are no polls to be had. Even if you remain skeptical-or-worse about the value of voting intention polling in the wake of last year’s debacle, some personal ratings on Scott Morrison would undoubtedly offer a helpful objective measure of how his image is bearing up after what has clearly been a tough couple of weeks. If you take your cues from social media, you may have concluded by now that Morrison’s career is as good as over. But if the last few years have taught us nothing else, it’s that that’s usually not a good idea. However, a News Corp pundit who generally doesn’t partake of the organisational kool-aid may have been on to something when he noted that this apprehension was “probably what tricked Morrison into thinking that all the outrage against him was confected and so he might as well go catch some rays”.

A second, less obvious point relates to an Eden-Monaro by-election that some readers of Canberra tea leaves assured us was on the cards, with one such ($) relating a view that Labor member Mike Kelly would be “gone by Christmas”. These reports asserted that the by-election would be used by state Nationals leader John Barilaro to enter federal politics with a view to deposing struggling party leader Michael McCormack. But if it’s the case that the government has suffered a bushfire-related hit to its standing, the thought of taking on a Labor-held seat at a by-election may have lost its appeal. The once-bellwether seat covers some of the worst affected areas, including the town of Cobargo, where Morrison met a hostile reception on Thursday from locals who — depending on your right-wing news source of choice — are either in no way representative of the town, or all too representative of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,738 comments on “Burning questions”

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  5. Scott

    Trump has admitted that the USA government paid Iran t

    It’s old anti Obama crap recycled. The Repugs and Trump claimed Obama gave/gifted/paid $billions to the Iranians for the nuclear deal. They also said it was used for “terrorism” . The US did not ‘pay’ Iran a cent, the money was Iranian money that had been held ,not so legally, by the US. It was their money returned.

  6. Have the banal usuals worked out once again that Labor is no good?
    Have they got their daily shit off their livers?
    Are we done and dusted?
    Or does ‘Labor is no good’ have to be repeated another couple of dozen times in various ways and in various guises for the rest of the day?

  8. Socrates
    “Protecting coal is about protecting privilege and a few wealthy investors from now cheaper alternatives.”
    Says it all really.

  11. Ok, time to call it and move on.
    Miracle Man has toughed it out and will recover over time from whatever ill will currently exists towards him from John and Mary Average.
    Albo was wonderful. Statesman-like. Fantastically amazing but virtually invisible to John and Mary.
    Scrott is a hard head, hard heart.
    Labor has nothing in it’s toolkit to counter it.
    The place will just roll on into 2022 then we’ll see what sort of campaign the tories run to get themselves over the line.
    The next Labor leader/PM will be a woman.
    It’s the only thing Labor’s got left.

  12. “The Liberal party is the party of the free vote – I am not asking them to do something they have never done before, and I think crossing the floor to vote for a climate act is something they need to do to represent their constituents.

    “If you choose to ignore the amount of people in your electorate [who want stronger climate action] … you do so at your peril.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/zali-steggall-urges-modern-liberals-to-support-her-proposed-climate-change-bill?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  14. poroti says:
    Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 9:14 am

    Confessions
    That is the most pukeworthy poseur PR shot yet.
    _______________
    The constant over doing of the PR will hopefully just remind people of the Hawaii trip and that shot of him stupidly sitting in that chair.

  15. No tax on disaster payments for fire-stricken Aussies

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/no-tax-on-disaster-payments-for-fire-stricken-aussies-20200108-p53pvw.html

    Australians will not pay tax on federal disaster assistance they receive to rebuild from this summer’s bushfire crisis, in a decision that adds to the budget cost one day after the Morrison government unveiled a $2 billion recovery fund.

    The tax break will be put to Parliament when it returns on February 4 and appears certain to gain support, with Labor making no criticism of the government for trimming the budget surplus to respond to the destruction.
    :::
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg confirmed the tax-free decision would apply to the Disaster Recovery Allowance made to individuals and the cash that would otherwise be taxable under the Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements, such as grants to small businesses and farmers.

    The government had previously announced that its compensation for rural fire service volunteers, worth up to $6000 for each person, would be free of tax.

  18. Coal myopia abounds.

    The notion that a single word ‘coal’ can somehow act as a proxy for the entire energy and emissions debate is ludicrous.

    “coal”

    Protecting consumers from the consequences of their embedded CO2 emissions consumption is about protecting the lifestyles of all 25 million Australian consumers.

    Is this real?

    “coal”

    The UK last year had over a 100 days in which there were zero emissions generated IN the UK.

    Is this real?

    “coal”

    UK consumers imported 800 billion tons of CO2 emissions embedded.

    Is this real?

    Reducing the debate to a single word, ‘coal’ is invariably politicking of one sort or another.

    It is no proxy for a sound policy debate. But it IS useful in politics to dumb it down.

    IMO reducing the entire debate to one word, ‘coal’, will have two political impacts. It will solidify the Coalition vote. It will shift some votes from Labor to the Greens. It will therefore effectively deliver policy stasis.

  19. @sarahinthesen8 tweets

    Worried for everyone on Kangaroo Island today as the temperatures rise & wind picks up today. Please follow the advice of emergency services and stay safe x

  20. ASSUMING – for the moment – that it was deliberate, what if the bomb (or whatever it was) has detonated prematurely?

    IF there was a bomb planted, perhaps it was meant to go off over Ukrainian territory and simply malfunctioned?

    Maybe even over Iranian territory, then depicted as a modern day USS Vincennes incident?

  21. @TheAusInstitute tweets

    Almost two thirds of Australians believe the country is facing a climate emergency and governments should mobilise all of society to tackle the issue as it did during the world wars, a new survey from @theausinstitute has found.

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/australians-believe-theres-a-climate-emergency-and-want-the-country-mobilised-like-it-was-during-the-wars/news-story/2d5f957d7ee8c0ea1dbaa12b3c793bd9

  23. ‘Confessions says:
    Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 8:13 am

    Max Boot argues it’s too early to be declaring victory over Iran.’

    No brainer. It will be back to the ongoing regional struggle which includes lots of violence by all concerned and in which Iran, and its proxies, are major players.

  25. Savage Summer

    https://insidestory.org.au/savage-summer/

    As fires engulf us in this terrifying summer, some politicians and commentators continue to duck and weave around the link between extreme weather events and climate change. One of the arguments they deploy to dismiss the effects of global warming is that we’ve always had bushfires in Australia. It’s true, we have. Bushfire is integral to our ecology, culture and identity; it is scripted into the deep biological and human history of the fire continent. But bushfire is various and it, too, has a history — and a frightening future. The long, gruelling fire season of 2019–20 has declared something new in modern Australian experience, something we can indeed call unprecedented, and a product of climate change.

  26. phoenixRED:

    [‘What drugs is he on?’]

    Mogadon? Or as one wit puts it, ‘shot…up with a bunch of horse tranquilizers.’ In any event, it worked and we’re not yet at war.

  29. ‘Mavis says:
    Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 9:30 am

    phoenixRED:

    [‘What drugs is he on?’]

    Mogadon? Or as one wit puts it, ‘shot…up with a bunch of horse tranquilizers.’ In any event, it worked and we’re not yet at war.’

    We are not in a formally declared war but there is a middle east-wide struggle going on that includes plenty of shooting, bombing and mayhem. And Australia has warplanes, a warship and around 300 ADF folk training the Iraqi military.

    Lost in all of the above is that the Iraqi Parliament voted (nonbinding) to kick the US (and by implication) its allies out of Iraq. The Iraq Government is refusing to honour that vote.

  31. poroti @ #3118 Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 6:58 am

    No need for a “target” person on the plane. It happened a few hours after the Iranian rocket strike. Iranian air defence people would have been on extreme alert for US retaliation. Easy to imagine someone got an itchy trigger finger.

    Doesn’t really make sense though. The plane took off from an Iranian airport, and came down two minutes later while still over Tehran. And was full of Iranians.

    For Iran to have shot it down someone would need to have an itchy trigger finger and be facing backwards with their eyes closed.

  32. I think Mr Dempster here is more deluded than Joel Fitzgibbon

    Our PM @ScottMorrisonMP could become a world leader in climate change mitigation given international sympathy for Australia over bushfires. Next G20 agenda must include commitment by biggest economies to more urgently decarbonise energy/transport. We must lead. https://twitter.com/zalisteggall/status/1215017311783907328

    @zalisteggall tweets

    We need legislation that mandates:
    ✅Climate Risk Assessment
    ✅National Adaptation program
    ✅Net 0 by 2050
    ✅Independent Climate Change Commission
    It is time for a plan for our future. #ClimateActNow #ConscienceVoteonClimate #auspol https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/08/zali-steggall-urges-modern-liberals-to-support-her-proposed-climate-change-bill

  34. Mundo,

    I think you forget that the typical career path for Morrison in any job is:

    • initial enthusiasm,
    • sceptical acceptance despite better judgement,
    • “We hired him so we have to see it through”,
    • this is crazy,
    • he doesn’t return my calls,
    • everybody in the office is pissed off,
    • what’s the payout figure on his contract?,
    • termination.

    We’re somewhere near “everybody in the office is pissed off” ATM.

  35. I’ve heard the pilot and surgeon who died in KI probably has a car crash trying to escape the fire and then we’re overcome. Visibility can quickly be zero and the noise like a jet engine ahead of a fire. Quite a few deaths in these bushfires have occurred in cars.

  36. Bushfire Bill @ #3178 Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 9:36 am

    Mundo,

    I think you forget that the typical career path for Morrison in any job is:

    • initial enthusiasm,
    • sceptical acceptance despite better judgement,
    • “We hired him so we have to see it through”,
    • this is crazy,
    • he doesn’t return my calls,
    • everybody in the office is pissed off,
    • what’s the payout figure on his contract?,
    • termination.

    We’re somewhere near “everybody in the office is pissed off” ATM.

    Mundo is honoured that BB took time to respond to his post.
    Mundo really really wishes he shared BB’s confidence.

  37. Someone suggested that Scomo is more comfortable now becasue he’s ‘protected’ by the presence of the military – in the sense that they are well-trained not to abuse him, and it makes him look as if he’s somehow part of their disciplined, coordinator effort.

    His image doesn’t fit, though. I don’t want to see him in uniform (cf Abbott) but he could do with better fitting trousers and shirt.

  38. Peg

    They forgot to ask the key question:

    To maintain consumers lifestyles, Australia leads the world in emissions. The consumption patterns that drive this include:
    1. Large vehicles with high loads of embedded CO2 emissions.
    2. Populations spread over huge swathes of bungalow and block suburbia instead of being concentrated.
    3. Per capita housing footprint that is THE highest in the world – along with the embedded CO2 emissions during construction, maintenance, disposal and materials.
    4. Around 10 million tourists flew in by plane. Around 10 million Australians flew overseas. Nearly all of these were for holidays. All these flights generated enormous CO2 emissions.
    5. Australia balanced its trade with $65 billion in coal exports.

    Here is the question:

    1. What are you personally willing to forego in order to deal with the drivers of the climate crisis?

    As noted previously, the proposition that Australia can address its global warming drivers while enabling current lifestyle choice levels is untenable.

    To pretend that we eat our fossils and keep our climate is a preposterous claim.
    To pretend that we can decarbonize AND substantially continue to eat our future is equally preposterous.

    Deliberate delusions abound.

  39. Bushfire Bill @ #3210 Thursday, January 9th, 2020 – 6:36 am

    Mundo,

    I think you forget that the typical career path for Morrison in any job is:

    • initial enthusiasm,
    • sceptical acceptance despite better judgement,
    • “We hired him so we have to see it through”,
    • this is crazy,
    • he doesn’t return my calls,
    • everybody in the office is pissed off,
    • what’s the payout figure on his contract?,
    • termination.

    We’re somewhere near “everybody in the office is pissed off” ATM.

    FWIW Mumble thinks Scotty has blown the political capital he accumulated in his shock election win.

    Every action taken by the government that was urged on it months or years ago is a belated acknowledge of earlier error. It is now accepting responsibility, and that precious budget surplus has gone.

    In the real world, reports suggest that Morrison is out of favour with people in affected areas, which doesn’t necessarily extend to the majority of Australians. But the coverage must have damaged him. The rain will come and the fires will be brought under control, but the evidence of this tragedy will remain forever. And there are many more summers to come.

    Morrison’s godlike status in the party room, which he neglected to employ to any meaningful end, is no more. Perceptions of his campaigning skills — never underestimate him, they’ll still say, recall what he did in 2019 — will endure. But if he had the authority last year to drag his party’s extremists towards a rational approach to climate change, that is no longer the case.

    What a waste of political capital.

    https://insidestory.org.au/outside-the-comfort-zone/

  40. lizzie

    Maybe he has read the Australian Institute Survey and wants to look like he is on a war footing.

    Something you would expect from image over substance #Scottyfrommarketing

  41. Boerwar

    All the attention has been on the Iranian guy but also killed was the Iraqi leader of the PMU. Dismissed as merely “Iranian proxies” in the press the PMU are Iraqis, including Christian, Sunni and Kurds. They are now part of the Iraq army . They actually did much of the heavy lifting (and dying) when it came to saving Iraq from the head choppers. So you can imagine how his murder by the US would have gone down with “the street”.

    The government are up to their necks in corruption and will likely stick with the yanks to try and keep their ‘nice little earners” and lives. However even before this murder there was a head of steam building up against the government and its corruption. The government may well find post the assassination both Sunni and Shia united against them. I can see Muqtada al-Sadr ending up running the show and he has zero time for the yanks. Nor for the Iranians for that matter but for the moment they are as one as to who to boot .

  42. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 9:38 am

    I’ve heard the pilot and surgeon who died in KI probably has a car crash trying to escape the fire and then we’re overcome. Visibility can quickly be zero and the noise like a jet engine ahead of a fire. Quite a few deaths in these bushfires have occurred in cars.’

    Yep. It is not just the physical disorientation from light, smoke, noise, flames, embers and wind. It is that falling branches and trees and cars being pushed around are common because of the extreme gusts.

    The pattern of official warnings is to decide early whether your preferred options is flight or fight. The emphasis on having a Bushfire Plan feeds into that. In particular it means that if flight is preferred then there is a minimum of time spent collecting pets and papers.

  47. @DocAvvers tweets

    “every time a legitimate journalist or editor or producer calls on a denier “to put the other side” of the climate change case they make it so much more likely … kangaroos & wallabies & koalas will burn next year, and dozens more people along with them.” https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/we-the-media-must-take-some-of-the-blame-as-australia-burns-20200106-p53pc3.html

    @climatecouncil tweets

    As air pollution from bushfires peaked, those who spent time outside in Canberra were effectively smoking 2.5 cigarettes an hr. The health of Australians is at serious risk from the bushfire crisis, which is being driven by climate change. @MarkusMannheim
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/why-canberra-is-a-smoke-bowl/11845592?fbclid=IwAR2YQqJan09SrkWrIG74gfZqrolbSBQTZQ56DtggTdIIZb9QpfSDwkM9Lmk

  48. Dio
    “I’ve heard the pilot and surgeon who died in KI probably has a car crash trying to escape the fire and then we’re overcome. Visibility can quickly be zero and the noise like a jet engine ahead of a fire. Quite a few deaths in these bushfires have occurred in cars.”

    I should have mentioned this earlier as there has been some discussion of this issue in traffic circles. We are used to having fixed speed limits on roads, but the traffic act usually says “… or slower, depending on the condition of the road and weather”.

    In this case, with the smoke greatly reducing visibility, we should be temporarily reducing speed limits in fire areas to 50 km/hr, maybe 60 km/hr. Braking distance goes up exponentially with speed. A modern car can pull up in 10 metres (double its own length) from 40 km/hr. It needs about 30 metres at 60. At 100 km/hr it needs a football field.

    Plus a head on impact at 60 km/hr is survivable, maybe not at 100 km/hr.

  50. Boerwar:

    [‘And Australia has warplanes, a warship and around 300 ADF folk training the Iraqi military.’]

    I see that a couple of NATO countries have pulled some of their troops from Iraq. We should follow suit but won’t because of Morrison’s extremely cordial relations with Trump – it’s still a case of “All the way with LBJ”. As Wilkie has recently put it, and Hewson in 2017, we should develop far more independent foreign policies. And I just heard Reynolds say on NewsRadio that we have 1000 troops in the ME.

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