Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
‘Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 3:42 pm
“The Greens clinging to their BOP wet dream as if that is going to deliver decarbonization of the Australian economy is like a drowning man clinging to a straw.”
‘wet dream’?
Stop being juvenile.
It worked once on the past, why not again?’
I know this is a difficult subject for the Greens to understand but the Greens have never decarbonized the economy. Not once. Not ever.
But that is what we need to do. We need to get to zero tout de fucking suite. No fucking around with clever political games. No pure policy. No same old same old. No wedging. No pissing off 34 regional seats as if they don’t matter. None of that shit. No BOP, either.
The reason I know for 100% sure that the Greens have NOT ever decarbonized the economy is because the economy is not decarbonized. In fact, we have never spewed out more CO2 per annum than we are at the moment.
So, whatever role, if any, you are claiming for the Greens you would have to say that it has all been a dismal failure. 100% FAIL.
“I know this is a difficult subject for the Greens to understand but the Greens have never decarbonized the economy. Not once. Not ever.”
You’re a painful idiot.
OK, so delivered an emissions trading scheme… Far out.
“But that is what we need to do. We need to get to zero tout de fucking suite. No fucking around with clever political games. ”
So why all the coal love Boerwar? You walk both sides of the fence.
I was in a town once, a very isolated town, and we got the Cat 5 warning.
Panic buying emptied the local shelves in no time flat. Things got willing.
Attempts to return, for example, hundreds of rolls of dunny paper, etc, etc, etc were subsequently rejected:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-01/bushfires-what-now-for-stranded/11835764
One of the main messages: calamities breed hoarding behaviour.
I don’t have any sort of brief for Gladys, but the following exchange on Twitter between Hgh Rimminton and Andrew Elder may give some indication about the political environment she is operating within.
Avril
@DocAvvers
‘“quiet Australians” don’t accept the “shrill cries” of the government’s climate critics,”’ says
@AngusTaylorMP
. Let’s make sure this is another of Mr Taylor’s stupid lies. In 2020, as fires rage, let’s ALL be SHRILL.
Quiet Australians are dickheads.
ajm @ #3804 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 3:56 pm
The Pubs, Clubs and Gambling industries, ie David Elliott, their man in Macquarie St, own the NSW Coalition.
Confessions @ #13556 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 3:22 pm
Elliot is a heavy in the less-evangelical (non-Perrottet) Troglodyte faction of the NSW Spiv Coalition. He steps on Gladys, not the other way round.
‘Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 3:53 pm
“But that is what we need to do. We need to get to zero tout de fucking suite. No fucking around with clever political games. ”
So why all the coal love Boerwar? You walk both sides of the fence.’
FMD.
There are two types of coal. Stuff that Australia burns. And stuff that other people burn to make stuff that we then use.
1. I would aim for a fully decarbonized economy within the next 20 years. It is just possible. Part of that would be to have zero coal burning for stationary energy. This would happen perfectly naturally as the coal-fired power stations seize up. No actual decision required.
2. I would not stop coal exports because that would little or no real world difference. Possibly our coal emits less CO2 per whatever and it is probably better to burn our coal. But the key thing is this. If we don’t export it Modi and Xi will replace that coal immediately. There is a shitload of coal in the ground all over the place.
3. I would put a truly smashing tariff on embedded coal emission imports. I would do that because I would not trust the million Greens consumers to take personal responsibility for their (by world standards astronomical) personal embedded emissions consumption.
rhw
NSW: Is it the water? Or is it genetics?
Even the NSW Greens manage to fuck it up.
Gladys appointed the Emergency Services Minister, so she should take responsibility for him being inadequate. Should mention in passing that Elliott is also the police minister (meaning he’s one of the senior ministers in a State government), and his claim to fame before the holiday was suggesting he would be comfortable with his children being strip searched (a lot of people don’t agree). Very simply, Elliott shouldn’t have a job, and Gladys is responsible for that.
My strong impression of the NSW government is that its being going on about how everything was fine, and they didn’t need resources blah blah even as events spiralled out of control before Gosper’s mountain. Now things are getting worse, partly because people are becoming exhausted. Being empathic after the event is good, but part of the government’s role is to be prepared, and the strong impression is they have failed.
Of course, Scotty from Marketing hasn’t even managed the empathy part, or the competent response part, let alone the preparedness part or recognising climate change increases the risks part.
Has the Greens party ever said wtte “Oops, we got that wrong. Will try to do better next
time”
Seems to me Labor does this pretty often.
Difficult to trust an organisation that never admits to being wrong. Labor has learnt from experience not to trust the Greens and a lot would need to happen for that trust to be established.
I’m not referring to policies here, which can always be argued over. I mean political tactics, of which the Adani convoy is the latest example.
And before anyone brings up Rudd’s non-negotiation on the CPRS, I repeat what I have said several times before – Rudd was trying to lock the LNP into actually having a policy, even if it was going to need improvement in the future. He almost achieved it and should be commended for trying. Of course he should have followed up with a DD and I’m critical of him for that and of a lot of stuff he did down the track.
rhwombat:
Well that likely explains why he still has a job.
Boerwar:
I can’t really parse your sentence, but Dr Lomborg isn’t opposed to government action; instead he is opposed to the (government) creation of markets that drive private action.
In fact Dr Lomborg has a long list of government (direct) actions he recommends. Near the top of the list is the (government) provision of contraception in the developing world. This would reduce population growth very considerably, with a consequent reduction in emissions growth (and a wide range of other benefits). The problem (of course) is that this proposed action is geo-politically infeasible: it will be opposed by the Church of Rome (unconditionally, as far as I’m aware) and by the United States (most of the time) and hence has no chance of being implemented.
The reason Dr Lonborg opposes the creation of markets that might drives emissions reduction is not that he thinks they won;t work, but rather that he fears that they will, and moreover that they will work in a way that is impossible to stop. That is regarded as an existential threat by the holders of obsolete energy assets, and Dr Lomborg as their agent prioritises the threat accordingly. This is exactly the same as the conduct of the agents of cigarette asset holders in times past.
Here’s Morrions final few words at a reception today for the Pink Test starting Friday.
So basically BW supports the Greens, except on this point
” I would not stop coal exports because that would little or no real world difference. ”
wow… That’s a real doozy.
Of course ending thermal coal (and that is all everyone is talking about) would make a difference.
For a start it would be more expensive for the importer to get their coal from elsewhere.
This would provide them with a price incentive to move away from coal.
EGT
Thanks for that clear exegesis!
What I meant to say is that somehow or other Lomborg always ends up not recommending anything that would feasibly and practically do the job of reducing CO2 emissions.
Did you happen to see my question to you about the impacts of NOT reducing penalty payments?
Astrobleme
Tosh.
The Chinese have for well over half a century diversified their commodity import sources. In other words they systematically buy from several sources, even if the sources have varying cost structures.
Xi’s transition to another (pre-existing) coal exporter would be virtually be seamless.
Boerwar @ #13581 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 4:04 pm
Dunno. I’m just a peripatetic anarchosyndicalist (aka Dennis).
I suspect it’s the Rum Corps origin as a bunch of Georgian pirates, their hired Screws and their convict slaves. The NSW LNP are still a bunch of Rentiers and Screws for hire, but they managed to corrupt enough of Labor to retain power.
Love that bore war realpolitik. Watch carefully for when he slyly introduces “the jews” into the discussion. Its always the giveaway of extremist views like his.
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:18 pm
Love that bore war realpolitik. Watch carefully for when he slyly introduces “the jews” into the discussion. Its always the giveaway of extremist views like his.’
I don’t normally bite. But you just slyly introduced “the jews” into a discussion which has nothing to do with “the jews”.
You anti-semitic arsehole.
rhw
‘peripatetic anarchosyndicalist’
love it!
Some modest reform proposals:
1) Structural separation of unions from the ALP ( you only work for a union to better the conditions of members not to get a seat.)
2) Proportional representation for all internal elections
3) 10 year term limit for all MP’s as backbenchers 20 years for ministers and 25 for PM
4) Royal Commission into electoral system to eliminate private money and consider enshrining PR into the voting system.
5) targeted amnesty program – to identify wrongdoing and bring it out in the open.
BW
You anti-semitic arsehole.
___________________________
Maybe Bill will finally take action action against the ugly troll. He’s done it to anti-semites and racists before.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:23 pm
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:18 pm
Your views on “israel” are well known.
“Xi’s transition to another (pre-existing) coal exporter would be virtually be seamless.”
AND THUS I AM PROVEN WRONG.
🙂
Most Australian Coal goes to South Korea and Japan (~50%).
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2019/sep/the-changing-global-market-for-australian-coal.html
And to suggest that stopping Australian coal exports wouldn’t send prices up is to misunderstand supply and demand
Damn…
Fitzgibbon well and truly doubled down.
Astrobleme
I see that you assume that the Chinese is a free market economy.
This is a large false assumption.
Is it not?
‘POF says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:26 pm
BW
You anti-semitic arsehole.
___________________________
Maybe Bill will finally take action action against the ugly troll. He’s done it to anti-semites and racists before.’
Not worth the time it takes to snip it, IMHO.
Boewar
“I see that you assume that the Chinese is a free market economy.”
It accounts for about 25% of our export. Why are you focusing on China.
Do you have something against China?
and I made no statement about their economy. However, the price of coal would go up if we took the 250Mt we export every year (out of 850MT world wide) the price would have to go up.
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-coal.pdf
At least do some simple google searches to back up your argument…
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:31 pm
‘POF says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:26 pm
BW
You anti-semitic arsehole.
___________________________
Maybe Bill will finally take action action against the ugly troll. He’s done it to anti-semites and racists before.’
Not worth the time it takes to snip it, IMHO.
__________________________
I think that was a reference to you!
I think that was a reference to you!
_____________________________
Just to be absolutely clear, it was not a reference to Boerwar, but to the nazi arse-licker to which he was responding.
Astrobleme
You are still having difficulty accepting that China is essentially a command economy. In other words, price is not necessarily the determinant that you assume it is.
There are plenty of parables for your edification.
The Philippines Parliament passed a resolution which re-named the South China Sea the ‘West Philippines Sea’.
The PI was then the chief supplier of bananas to China.
China promptly banned PI banana imports.
The PI banana industry promptly fell into chaos and despair.
THAT is how China really works.
I posted earlier about the Australian Emergency Management Institute and the training centre at Macedon.
Pleased to see that the Victorian Government picked up the Centre and refurbished and is using it for its orginal function.
Yes the attachment is a an ALP press release but it gives the basic details.
https://www.mary-annethomas.com.au/media-releases/new-emergency-training-institute-officially-opens-in-mount-macedon/
Excellent piece by Ms Taylor:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/01/we-know-this-disaster-is-unprecedented-no-amount-of-scott-morrison-spin-can-hide-it
Lars Von Trier
I would add 6) Dissolve the NSW Rum Corp branch.
“You are still having difficulty accepting that China is essentially a command economy. In other words, price is not necessarily the determinant that you assume it is.”
I may as well be arguing with a wall.
OVER 75% of our exports go to other countries.
If you bizzarro world logic applies, it would lead to price increases for at least those 75% buyers.
And to say that China doesn’t worry about prices is truly strange.
But hey, when coal spruikers want to rationalise their love of coal, they’ll cling to any old nonsense
Astrobleme
There are 150 years of coal reserves in the world.
Supply and demand.
Supply and demand.
Are these the very first social media bushfires we have had?
If so, wo bist?
TPOF, we’ve been down this road before:
‘clem attlee says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 6:22 pm
Boerwar and his ilk need to believe that Corbyn is anti Semitic because they have to have a pretext to oppose him that obscures the real cause of their resentment of him. Of course the real reason for opposing him, is the fact that Corbyn represents real progressive reform of the like that he and his knuckle dragging friends of the right cannot stomach. At heart, Boerwar is a National Party adherent, that is where he fits ideologically. Of course it would be DLP, but they are no longer a viable option.’
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/01/australia-is-becoming-a-nation-of-dread-and-the-world-looks-on-with-pity-and-scorn
David Marr
In GG’s post earlier, Morrison offers us the “great feats of our cricketers.” Will “cricket” be the only thing we hear from the man today?
The article is worth reading too for some other points Marr makes, but in the main its about a failure of leadership at several levels.
poroti says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:41 pm
Lars Von Trier
I would add 6) Dissolve the NSW Rum Corp branch.
______________________________
Yes I agree. Bit like the last days of Tammany Hall – it cannot be long now.
Pegasus:
The Menzies government campaigned on increasing the equivalent of Newstart, more than once.
You are right that this was driven by a different economic orthodoxy:
– in that era the paradigm was return on investment in productive capital (factories, infrastructure)
– in our era, the paradigm is return on assets, and for various reason most assets are financial assets (which are non-productive by definition)
In the former case it made sense to pay the unemployed at a level that supported continued participation in the market, consumption of production etc, since this increased demand and hence production. The goal of this paradigm was growth in production, and it worked for a considerable time (until its beneficiaries came to hold substantial financial assets, in fact, and stated using these assets as a club)
In the latter case the role of the unemployed is to drives down the cost of labour and hence the costs associated with the administration of assets. Hence it is completely logical that there would be (as there is) a large pool of unemployed hanging around (as a buffer). Someone has to pay for this pool, and of course they want to pay as little as possible. The goal in this paradigm is “economic growth” in financial terms, not necessarily growth in production.
The current situation is in fact similar to that which prevailed in Britain prior to the repeal of the corn laws. The holders of financial assets (namely, monopoly concessions enabling them to “sell” corn far above the market price) had established a regime that benefited themselves and harmed everyone else.
Eventually the corn laws got repealed, and the modern economy got started, to the benefit of everyone (both workers and production-oriented capitalists) excepting the financial asset holders.
Whist it is possible that some third solution exists, the most obvious solution to the current problems is a repeat of the Corn law repeal exercise. This has the advantages that:
– it worked the first time it was tried
– it also worked the the second time it was tried (the New Deal)
Of course it was politically more complex the second time around, in part because the financial assets holders had gone to great deal of trouble to mix themselves in with the production-oriented capitalists in order to confuse the issue.
It will be even more complex the third time. On the other hand we have known since the 1950s that technology is substantially whole driver of economic growth, so financial asset holders in fact bring almost nothing to the table. The exception is in relation to new (technology) companies – currently these are financed from floating surpluses related to rents extracted by financial asset holders. Find a solution to this problem and this will drive the paradigm shift.
A safe and happy new year to all. Even you, Joel.
Well, we certainly need a paradigm shift.
Who’s first?
So…Australia burns and LVT/ESJ decides to throw in an anti-semetism straw man for no particular reason other than to attack another poster. Now i dont agree with everything BW posts. Some of it’s crap. But he actually posts less crap than some in my opinion, and most times can argue quite rationally for that crap.
No-one here deserves to have to deal with the pointlessly nasty shit from the naths and LVT’s of the world. They are really dwellers of the bottom of the septic tank .
Lars Von Trier
says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:24 pm
Some modest reform proposals:
1) Structural separation of unions from the ALP ( you only work for a union to better the conditions of members not to get a seat.)
2) Proportional representation for all internal elections
3) 10 year term limit for all MP’s as backbenchers 20 years for ministers and 25 for PM
4) Royal Commission into electoral system to eliminate private money and consider enshrining PR into the voting system.
5) targeted amnesty program – to identify wrongdoing and bring it out in the open.
________________________________________
An excellent foundation. I would add that members of each state division vote for all preselection’s in each state so as to eliminate branch stacking.
‘Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 3:51 pm
“I know this is a difficult subject for the Greens to understand but the Greens have never decarbonized the economy. Not once. Not ever.”
You’re a painful idiot.
OK, so delivered an emissions trading scheme… Far out.’
Oh? Are we decarbonized yet?
Lars Von Trier
says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 4:24 pm
Some modest reform proposals:
1) Structural separation of unions from the ALP ( you only work for a union to better the conditions of members not to get a seat.)
_____________________
Just removing the SDA patronage and career advancement rort would be a terrific start.
The sooner the workers of the world realize that the Greens are the answer to all their problems, the better.