Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
‘Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 2:42 pm
Boerwar
“The Greens can’t do it”
It’s like you have no memory of the past.’
Oh, I forgot. The Greens have already decarbonized the economy. So what is everybody on about.
“Greens massive CO2 consumers by world standards who are therefore utter hypocrites. ”
This is completely made up.’
Yep. The wealthy Inner Urbs Knowledge Economy Greens live like people on Newstart and donate the rest of their earnings to re-afforestation projects. How much did Di Natale’s new Inner Urb build cost, exactly? He is certainly no Mahatma!
The Mallacoota firefighters are being helicoptered out, and a new shift being flown in.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews explains the extraordinary measures being used to get firefighters in and out of #Mallacoota
Boerwar
Not only but also the flash point of diesel is way higher than that of ‘petrol’.
“Yep. The wealthy Inner Urbs Knowledge Economy Greens live like people on Newstart and donate the rest of their earnings to re-afforestation projects. How much did Di Natale’s new Inner Urb build cost, exactly? He is certainly no Mahatma!”
So this is your ‘evidence’?
I find it hard to believe you were ever involved in anti-racism groups.
lizzie @ #3670 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 1:42 pm
It’s not crazy. It’s entirely predictable. It’s called water wars. And they’re just beginning.
Astro
For someone who preaches love, brotherhood and all that, RI is remarkably divisive with his “Fuck the Greens” mantra.
BW and RI believe it’s a winning strategy for Labor to concentrate on destroying the Greens. I disagree. Just as the Democrats hit the wall allowing the Greens vote to rise, so will be the case if the Greens hit the wall. Another party will rise from the ashes to create the same problem for Labor in its quest for majority government.
Poroti
I dont need to be told twice to get the f out.
Lol!
poroti
Ash Wednesday certainly changed a few people’s attitude towards home protection as it became obvious that the standard advice would no longer work.
Victoria
Ah. We be on a unity ticket 😆
C@tmomma @ #3684 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 1:55 pm
C@t, shes completely out of her depth. She hasn’t an original thought in her head. She started out as a bloody typist or something for Peter Collins, worked hard and late into the night, any more letters, yes Mr Collins, No Mr Collins, three fucking bags full, and that’s all she is, someone else’s operative.
God save us from these people, for they know not what they do (with attribution).
Poroti
It does happen every blue moon, or every new year. Lol!
Peg
BW and RI are fighting for coal… Precious coal…
“BW and RI believe it’s a winning strategy for Labor to concentrate on destroying the Greens. ”
Yes, and the way they spruik coal it’s clear they fear the Greens… But, after the next election with this new Senate laws it’s likely the Greens will have 12 Senators. I think that thought fills them with dread.
Itzadream
Listening to Gladys Berejiklian does not engender confidence.
The arrogance and irresponsibility of the Federal government when warned of the dangers and advised of the equipment required to fight this year’s fires is on full display here in this article from November.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-14/former-fire-chief-calls-out-pm-over-refusal-of-meeting/11705330
Late Riser @ #3732 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 2:33 pm
If you go to the official site the last posting was 2014.
Telstra showing more empathy than Morrison
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/telstra-offers-free-mobile-services-to-volunteer-firefighters-20200101-p53o35.html
I can’t remember which PBer it is, but for over a year now someone has been carrying on about how much the Andrews govt has screwed over the CFA and this means the state’s bushfire response is going to be half-assed.
Given the Victorian response has been so much more efficient than that of NSW, I wonder what that commenter has to say now.
Well Boerwar. That is a complicated and extensive list you go through to explain “what you mean”.
But I think I can take from that you do believe in taking climate action, but at the same time you seem to think we should not in any way disturb our own coal industry. Taking effective action against carbon emissions means coal industries will one day shut down.
How therefore do you reconcile winning over regional voters by promising to keep coal going forever with effective climate action? I think you are a little confused and a bit too eager to bag out the Greens.
A better approach is to promote job opportunities in the renewables sector and appeal to voters who are genuinely concerned about global heating. Labor may not, in the short-term at least, persuade enough voters in the blue collar regions, but it needs to be serious about taking climate action and may have to win elections without this traditional support base.
Serious climate action demands this, not petty squabbling with the Greens or nostalgic appeals to Labor’s old base.
ItzaDream @ #3759 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 2:55 pm
She also went the usual Liberal route into politics via a bank. Thus sees the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Confessions @ #3767 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 3:02 pm
taylormade the Liberal apologist, iirc.
Peg,
What the Labor Right operatives are doing is parroting the words of their Climate Change Denialist Guru Peter Walsh.
Walsh wrote an article titled “Labor and the Greens” which appeared in May 1999 issue of Quadrant. It’s enlightening because it demonstrates a visceral hatred of the environment movement that stretches back to the early 1970’s and possibly earlier. The language and formulations used are pretty much the text book for Boer, RI and their ilk on PB.
The article is littered with thinly veiled attacks on Hawke – the references to neo-pagans echo Hugh Morgans writing in the IPA Review attacking Hawke for blocking Coronation Hill.
And of course Walsh appeals to “moderates” who care about “real” environmental issues – like preservation of places of natural beauty, preventing air and water pollution, and repairing land degradation. These have an uncanny resemblance to the environmental issues Keating claimed to have addressed while PM.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/qafjfx91qv912e0/Quad1999V043N05_019.pdf?dl=0
Reports that a new leggie is making his debut in the Test starting Friday.
Boerwar @ #3744 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 2:42 pm
yabba I have a lot of respect for. His post was –
“ As I said, about $7000 per house, for a fully automatic, remotely actuated, diesel powered roof spray system. No house with roof sprinklers has burnt in Australia.
The second sentence is to my reading a stand alone.
I’ve asked yabba, and look forward to his response.
More terrible news.
Hugh Riminton
@hughriminton
·
3m
#BREAKING: NSW Police report a further three people have been killed in #bushfires “on top of the four people reported yesterday.”
@10NewsFirst
‘poroti says:
Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 2:47 pm
Victoria
I was a gung ho, stay and defend the way to go guy until seeing tv footage of the Ash Wednesday fires. After that I became a get the f’cuk out of there ASAP person…….. also became a WTF are people thinking building houses nestled in the middle of trees that maybe not today but one day for sure will burn ?’
It is sort of incredible. If you Google Earth the places that have lost houses in these latest fires you would have to say that people were just asking for very bad trouble.
Berejiklian is doing a fine job in very trying circumstances. She is doing two jobs given she has a fool for an emergency services minister
She probably has not had a day off for several weeks. This very week she’s had to intermingle the tragedy of the bushfires with going to a triple funeral for residents of her electorate care of the White Island disaster.
Astrobleme,
You do know that The Greens having lols about Labor in their own little echo chamber here, isn’t worth a hill of beans in the real world? Where you only have one HoR seat. And as far as, maybe, having 12 Senators after the next federal election, there you go again presuming that Labor will win and already demanding that Labor dance to your tune. Again.
Is it any wonder that Labor supporters have contempt for The Greens?
Btw, one only hopes that, should the Coalition be re-elected, that the purported 12 Greens Senators learn the meaning of co-operation with Labor and defeat of the Coalition in the Upper House, instead of spending their time and wasting everyone else’s with stunts, or collaborating with the Coalition to do in Labor. As historical precedent has shown to be the case too often.
shellbell @ #3776 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 3:13 pm
That’s what she is paid handsomely to do.
Scott Morrison accept climate change.
Step up or step down.
shellbell @ #3775 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 3:13 pm
I’m sure a few more water bombers would prove useful.
Is the NSW budget on track for a surplus ?
Itza
Yabba can, and does, speak for himself. But there is no point in having roof sprinklers if the fuel in your petrol pump has vaporized. Which is why Yabba specified diesel pumps.
The Lynches had a petrol pump.
This issue is sort of personal. I have pointed out exactly this issue to a mate of mine whose house is, literally, in the middle of the bush, and who is all set to defend his house with everything sort of OK – sprinklers, dam, etc, etc,: except that his whole defence mechanism depends on a single petrol pump.
So far his house is midway between two of the bad fires down the south coast.
So, his first line of defence is holding quite well: pure luck!
FWIW I would not be relying on having my water reserves sitting in plastic tanks, either (as the Lynches did). Unless the tanks are buried. Those babies are not built for fire.
http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/tanks_on_trial.pdf
shellbell @ #3776 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 3:13 pm
Respectfully, she should have recalled the minister, or sacked him. Doing neither doesn’t garner fineness imo. The ‘doing two jobs without days off for weeks’ is not how it is meant to work. It is her failure if that’s the situation she finds herself in. She and Morrison were warned about this. No excuses, sorry.
Berejiklian may be doing the best she can under the circumstances. It’s curious she didn’t put her foot down over the emergency services minister going on holidays, when these fires have been burning for weeks now, and the risk of catastrophe was plain to everyone not just the authorities.
However, in my view what make a nice change is that the focus is on the efficiency and effectiveness of response of her govt, and her own individual capability as premier. Remember when Gillard went to Qld after the cyclone and floods and all anyone could talk about was what she was wearing and how she stood?
Itzadream
Agreed. No excuses.
shellbell @ #3776 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 3:13 pm
That’s a rubbish response because her problems with managing these fires come down to not having an understanding of the issues or being properly briefed to understand the imminent danger. She’s either up to the job or she’s not. She selected the fool and she allowed him to go on leave. The mark of a good Leader is someone who can delegate what they can. She obviously cannot do that. Poor decision making, under resourcing and an arrogant disregard for the dangers now being inflicted on NSW are what have done her in.
C@tmomma
“Where you only have one HoR seat. And as far as, maybe, having 12 Senators after the next federal election, there you go again presuming that Labor will win and already demanding that Labor dance to your tune. Again.”
I have never demanded anything of Labor.
I’m not sure, but it may be the Greens will have part of the balance of power regardless. I doubt there’ll be enough Coalition seats (even with Indies) in the Senate to make a majority. Likely the Coalition will need to deal with labor or the Greens.
The four state premiers I have been able to observe on the teev have been present and correct, thus far*. Sure, the usuals who have never had to fight a fire in their lives or who have never politically achieved so much as organizing a root in a brothel, are going the full outrage at various real or imagined shortcomings.
The premiers should be encouraged. Not pissed on from a great moral height.
*I don’t know how the WA premier went.
C@tmomma
“that the purported 12 Greens Senators learn the meaning of co-operation with Labor and defeat of the Coalition in the Upper House, instead of spending their time and wasting everyone else’s with stunts, or collaborating with the Coalition to do in Labor. As historical precedent has shown to be the case too often.”
This did happen a few times late last year, and historically Labor supports the Coalition more than the Greens do.
And did you forget 2010-13? Is it because you don’t like Julia Gllard?
‘Astrobleme says:
‘Likely the Coalition will need to deal with labor or the Greens.’
Based on the last 30 years or the last 10 years, the Coalition is unlikely to have to deal with the Greens. That is a statistical fact.
The other statistical fact is that the nature of our increasingly executive and non-responsive political structures is that the Coalition does not have to deal with anyone.
The House rarely sits.
The Coalition rarely answers questions.
The business of government is increasingly covered by privatization and outsourcing.
Existing arrangements are trashed by the Coalition as required.
All of the last four items are increasing trends.
The Greens clinging to their BOP wet dream as if that is going to deliver decarbonization of the Australian economy is like a drowning man clinging to a straw.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/earth-at-a-tipping-point-royal-family-launches-climate-crusade-20191231-p53nzh.html
meanwhile at the PM’s residence today,
Does any family on earth, so beloved of Rex the honest non-partisan (just ask him), emit more CO2 than the British Royal Family?
Greensborough Growler @ #3786 Wednesday, January 1st, 2020 – 3:22 pm
Too right. Her initial response as this catastrophe started was to tell people to be vigilant. Then she moved onto the cringing excuse that she didn’t have a crystal ball, oblivious to the months and weeks of crescendoing warnings from those who knew what was coming. Then the final revelation came when a few days ago as she stood ashen faced in the devastation around Bell she said what see was seeing was a revelation. Indeed it was. Then to accept the rap that her emergency minster had gone, and was staying gone, was pathetic. As in pathos.
Citizen (re removal of penalty rate, and the consequent “saving”):
Most of it will have just disappeared, to the benefit of no-one.
That’s what happens when there’s sector wide cost reduction (it applies to every player) for an input that is abundant (not facing upward pricing pressure) in an environment of where financing is cheap (low interest rates) and widely available (lots of money around):
– the sector wide nature means no-one benefits (in order to benefit from cost reduction one must be better at it than just the average, which can’t coour when the source of cost reduction is exogenous)
– abundance / lack of scarcity means there is no-real competition for more productive employees
– cheap financing means there is no benefit from redeploying the cash (for example there won’t be any new jobs created), either within the sector nor indeed in another sector
About the only way to win from this is (paradoxically) to use it as part of a strategy to pay employees more! So as to attract the best employees, hence improve service levels, hence increases margins through higher priced offerings. Not possible in most affected sectors (there is no staff contact with the economic customer, so service quality improvements don’t affect purchasing decisions providing lw bar adequate service levels are maintained), but perhaps in restaurants.
More likely one will see a continuation of the trend towards US style diners (paying staff minimum wage) and crap food. Sector wide wage reductions militate towards this trend (and are thus unwelcome), but the real driver for this is restaurants (mostly Asian) illegally paying below minimum wage rates, something with which a business operating within the law can’t compete even if there were no penalty rates whatsoever.
That ship in the background is probably one of the best military ships in the world for what the Mallacootans and the Bermaguians need right now.
Why is tied to the wharf?
Is Mr Morrison going to finish bowling his over before he boards her to repel the fire and brimstone from god that has beset him so?
If the Senate vote was exactly the same next time we would have 36 Coal, 24 Lab, 12 Green, 2 ONP, 2 JL.
So not quite the BOP…
“The Greens clinging to their BOP wet dream as if that is going to deliver decarbonization of the Australian economy is like a drowning man clinging to a straw.”
‘wet dream’?
Stop being juvenile.
It worked once on the past, why not again?
EGT
I saw some figure of hundreds of millions for rural and regional areas.
In your view, what would have happened to the money had the payments stayed in place?
Where would it have gone and to what effect, if any?