Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

  1. We have a political blame shift disinformation campaign underway. People are dying, property is being destroyed, lives are being devastated. But, Morrison has his priorities!

    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    · 5m
    I kid you not, I can confirm the inner sanctum of Team Morrison are actively backgrounding media against the NSW Coalition government to try and make sure the PM doesn’t wear the blame for his handling of the fires. It’s extraordinary that is their focus at the moment! #auspol

  2. “Senior federal minister Greg Hunt on Saturday morning backed the leadership of Prime Minister Scott Morrison”
    ——————
    What’s this about?

    Is there a move on?

  3. Confessions
    Ironic and extremely galling given Gladys has been on since the get-go

    Well Gladys from banking did cut RFS funding in half. She deserves her share of the blame.

  4. @JonDeeOz
    ·
    4m
    Now we know why Scott Morrison was at the firefront forcing handshakes on people.

    He was making a video advert.

    Not quite sure how to put into words what I think of this video. It doesn’t mention once how slow
    @ScottMorrisonMP has been in responding to this crisis.

  5. Apropos nothing much……………just a short time ago, we in Sandgropia had several days of 40 plus degree heat……………….As this outpost of Ozland accounts for just 10% of Ozland’s population and we have little or no influence over anything much, our sufferings then were barely noted in the Eastern States Media – no surprise there of course. Meanwhile we are told food supplies to this isolated city could be affected because the smoke/bushfires make road transport difficult. So we, poor bastards, could starve to death while those in the East fry. Meanwhile, for the past 10 days to two weeks, we have had just the most perfect weather in Perth with moderate temperatures and a cool breeze for many of these days. And blow me away, we even got some overnight rain, which is usually unheard of in Perth at this time of the year………………………….
    However, as an ex-Gippsland boy, I know full-well the devastation of forest fires. Back in the day, up near Noojee I well-remember the fire trench the locals had to scramble into back in the big fires of the 1940s……………..not sure anything has really changed all that much……………………………………

  6. @mjrowland68 tweets

    Asked about a report in the @dailytelegraph her govt had rejected offers from the federal govt for further military help, @GladysB replied: ‘Not true. Not true’. #NSWfires #AustraliaFires @abcnews

  7. Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    I kid you not, I can confirm the inner sanctum of Team Morrison are actively backgrounding media against the NSW Coalition government to try and make sure the PM doesn’t wear the blame for his handling of the fires. It’s extraordinary that is their focus at the moment! #auspol

    Sharri Markson @SharriMarkson
    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian had rejected Morrison’s offer of further military and naval support, holding the view she and the RFS had it under control. Today, the PM has decided to take control.

  8. They’re all connected, but most people wouldn’t realise it.

    Peter Hollo
    @frogworth
    ·
    38m
    David Allen, the pub owner spruiking for the PM here, is the son of the local councillor who manhandled & shushed the pregnant woman after she refused to shake the PM’s hand.
    Erin Molan, who interviewed Allen here, is the daughter of Jim Molan.

    You can’t make this shit up.

    ***
    Senator Jim Molan AO DSC
    @JimMolan
    · Jan 3
    Cobargo Pub owner David Allen’s view of those who heckled the PM yesterday. He was one of many on the spot asking me to pass his apologies to PM, saying they do not represent Cobargo. https://2gb.com/its-wrong-cobargo-resident-ashamed-of-treatment-of-scott-morrison/

  9. ‘citizen says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:14 pm

    “Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:07 pm
    Fires now around 5km from the ACT border.
    I trust that Barr will demand SAS intervention.”

    Where are these supposed fires? The RFS doesn’t seem to know about them.’

    Go to DEA hot spots.

    https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/

    There are hotspots between Yaouk and the ACT border, not far from Shannon’s Flat. I believe the RHS may have included Shannon’s Flat in their alerts.

  10. It looks like there is a large contingent of media people on the ground in the bushfire areas and some of them seem to be quite affected by what they see and the people they meet.

    I’m sure that many of them will return to their regular jobs with a much better understanding of the real Australia and not the image that Morrison & co want to project at media events.

    It’s also good to see how many journos are cynical of AdMan on social media. Unfortunately of course, those depending on a paycheque from the likes of Murdoch and Stokes will feel obliged to hide their true feelings.

  11. Tricot

    Amen brother . Especially about the meh whenever we get the inferno treatment. Anyway, one good thing (for us) about when the Eastern States get the inferno treatment is that the SW of Sandgropia experiences unseasonably mild weather.

  12. William Bowe (Block)
    Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 5:38 pm
    Comment #6761

    New thread please William.

    Many problems with loading pages and using C+ with near 7000 comments.

    Thenkew.

  13. WB

    There is an extensive article in AFR which includes several references to the way in which Coalition politics may have helped nobble Morrison’s early responses to the fires. It links the response to the conflicts about climate change.

    ‘Morrison Braves the Heat as the Party Grows Restive.’ by Andrew Clarke.

  14. @CosmicRami
    ·
    11m
    I was just thinking to myself where have I heard that terrible music from the ScoMo political ad that the PMO just released.

    If I remember correctly, it’s royalty free music that can be downloaded from stock music site.

    It’s usually tagged with “Cheery”

    Yep, they went there.

  15. ‘citizen says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:50 pm

    Thanks Boerwar (post at 5.41)

    The citizen household has a strong vested interest in the course of the fires given our location.’

    You’re in Zed’s stronghold. What goes round comes round, comrade.

  16. The Sydney Morning Herald
    @smh
    ·
    5m
    This is Mallacoota, VIC, where day has turned into blood red night on Saturday. Families with babies are stranded after being told they could not be evacuated via Navy ships because their children were under five.
    Read more: http://bit.ly/2MSYf7a

  17. Meanwhile, an arm of the Currawong fire has reached the ranges to the south-west of Jerangle and is now about 20-30km from the ACT border. If there is a sustained smf strong south-westerly the township of Bredbo is in the firing line.

  18. Calling out the reserves is a good idea.

    But Morrison is saying any reservists who are currently volunteering will not be called up. That is keep volunteering.

    Can’t they stay where they are and still be paid as a reservist?

  19. I predict within the next 2 – 4 weeks there will be a fabricated ‘crisis’ (refugees, boats, terrorist attack, sudanese gangs, single mothers / aboriginals etc rorting welfare) that the coalition will use to self promote and divide

    may not take that long

  20. ‘Boris says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:58 pm

    Calling out the reserves is a good idea.

    But Morrison is saying any reservists who are currently volunteering will not be called up. That is keep volunteering.

    Can’t they stay where they are and still be paid as a reservist?’

    Moral panic a mile wide and a mile deep.

  21. Boris

    Can’t they stay where they are and still be paid as a reservist?,

    Shit no ! There is a “surplus” to protect. People are further back in the priority queue.

  22. Lizie

    Families with babies are stranded after being told they could not be evacuated via Navy ships because their children were under five.
    Read more: http://bit.ly/2MSYf7a

    —————

    Are they expected to leave them behind on the beach?

  23. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:52 pm
    ‘citizen says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:50 pm

    Thanks Boerwar (post at 5.41)

    The citizen household has a strong vested interest in the course of the fires given our location.’

    You’re in Zed’s stronghold. What goes round comes round, comrade.

    I’m not sure that Zed has much of a stronghold anywhere in the ACT any more. He only got in by the skin of his teeth. Anyway he’s going for the Gungahlin vote nowadays if the location of his electorate office there is any guide.

  24. a r:

    Problem is that the blog takes almost a full minute to deliver a response to that (probably because the number of posts cause the backing database to get bogged down):

    The URLs are of the form:
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/12/26/newspoll-breakdowns-november-december-2019/comment-page-128/#comments

    This is apparently keyed on “2019”, “12”, “26” and “newspoll-breakdowns-november-december-2019” (probably some or allconcatenated) so that each thread is partitioned (and the length of other threads therefore doesn’t interfere with performance of the current thread)

    The keying needs to extend to the “128” component, which would make each page a partition. This would mean that the backed database query involves a partition containing at post 50 posts (and the “long thread” problem ought therefore not to arise). However, query optimizers are quite fickle: sometimes equivalent but differently written query can have radically different performance, and either/both non-unique indexes or de-normalisation may be required. Someone with access to how the query is processed needs to take a look.

  25. William Bowe says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:38 pm
    Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    I kid you not, I can confirm the inner sanctum of Team Morrison are actively backgrounding media against the NSW Coalition government to try and make sure the PM doesn’t wear the blame for his handling of the fires. It’s extraordinary that is their focus at the moment! #auspol

    Sharri Markson @SharriMarkson
    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian had rejected Morrison’s offer of further military and naval support, holding the view she and the RFS had it under control. Today, the PM has decided to take control.

    ———————–

    Lol William Bowe

  26. I am having no problems with response times on my laptop. But then I am not using any scripts, just the vanilla version of the site as it is.

  27. Scout says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:59 pm
    I predict within the next 2 – 4 weeks there will be a fabricated ‘crisis’ (refugees, boats, terrorist attack, sudanese gangs, single mothers / aboriginals etc rorting welfare) that the coalition will use to self promote and divide

    may not take that long

    The border security patrols have doubtless been instructed to find at least one leaky fishing boat asap. The potato has plans, BIG plans.

  28. Australian politics has to change forever when your own citizens cannot sleep or breathe

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/04/australias-bushfires-politics-has-to-change-forever-when-your-own-citizens-cannot-sleep-or-breathe

    I am haunted by Cormac McCarthy’s The Road, a book I read only a year ago, never imagining how soon I would see photos in the Australian media of the post-apocalyptic world he described, of refugees fleeing blackened landscapes, parents leading their children through the smoke, carrying their belongings in their arms, hoping for rescue on military convoys.

    We have no use for politicians who continue to pursue agendas that ignore the reality of our warming climate, that place our suffering planet in ever-greater jeopardy. It is time for a new generation of leaders to stand up.

  29. William Bowe says:
    Saturday, January 4, 2020 at 5:38 pm
    Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    I kid you not, I can confirm the inner sanctum of Team Morrison are actively backgrounding media against the NSW Coalition government to try and make sure the PM doesn’t wear the blame for his handling of the fires. It’s extraordinary that is their focus at the moment! #auspol
    ________________
    Not much love for Morrison from the NSW Mods after Turnbull was edged out.

  30. can’t watch the mainstream news

    ‘the federal government is now moving in with PM Morrison saying he is sick of waiting for requests from the states and will act’

    ffs

  31. wentworth falls
    @tilly64
    ·
    4h
    Breaking; Flying Fox Tragedy Sydney

    Parramatta Park colony & Windsor flying fox colony have crashed with FFs on the ground, dead & dying, dehydrated, over heat & organs fail.

    Our forest pollinators

  32. A decent database should cope just fine with AR’s wordpress JSON API query.
    Mr Bowe might want to check on the resource usage of his server, however I believe he pays for a managed service.

    Naturally I blame wordpress and mysql

  33. a r:

    And FWIW the blog’s response times seem to scale linearly with the number of comments being fetched, so 20 comments per page should be about 2.5x as fast as 50 comments per page.

    Only if page size is the only factor (it will certainly be a factor, since only the current page will be rendered into HTML, and obviously that will be linear both in the number of posts per page and also the aggregate of the texts in the actual posts). But if “it’s long threads wot done it”, then it’s not the only factor.

  34. BW,

    Go to DEA hot spots.

    https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/

    Thanks so much for this link. It is a fantastic way of displaying data, and the explanation of what the legend etc. means is clear and easy to follow.

    Also, it confirms my reading of entrails that the Grose valley fire is definitely not a problem at the moment. I shall post this for my friends.

    On the other hand, the best of luck to you, and all here who are close to fires.

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