Northern exposure

A by-election looms in the Northern Territory, plus not much else of psephological interest going on right now.

With the excitement of the British election over and done with, now begins the extended nothingness of the silly season. A few points worth noting to keep things ticking over:

• A by-election looms in the Northern Territory for the Darwin seat of Johnston, not far out from a territory election scheduled for August 22. This follows the retirement of Ken Vowles, who has held the seat since 2012. Vowles served as a minister after Labor came to power in 2016, but was one of three members expelled from the party caucus in December 2018 over a feud with Chief Minister Michael Gunner. Labor held the seat with a 14.7% margin in 2016, an election at which it won the two-party vote 58.5-41.5. A heavy swing at the by-election seems inevitable, but the Country Liberal Party to this point appears to be dragging its heels on naming a candidate. Labor has chosen Unions NT general secretary Joel Bowden, a former Richmond AFL player who says he’ll be putting in a 100% team effort. Former Chief Minister Terry Mills’ CLP breakaway party, Territory Alliance, is running Steven Klose, who according to the Northern Territory News held the curious position of “political adviser at the Northern Territory Electoral Commission”. Also in the field will be Braedon Earley of the Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water Party.

• In other by-election news, there isn’t any. Confident speculation a month or so ago that Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly would be gone by Christmas has less than a fortnight to bear fruit, and there also are no visible signs of progress on suggestions that Mark Dreyfus and Brendan O’Connor would be pulling the plug in Isaacs and Gorton.

Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on jockeying for the Liberal preselection in Warringah, where the party faces the difficulty of its branches being dominated by conservatives in a seat whose voters gave Tony Abbott the flick in favour of independent Zali Steggall. Included on the watch list are “NSW upper house member Natalie Ward, Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James, Downer EDI executive and former Scott Morrison staffer Sasha Grebe, as well as management consultant and NSW Liberal Party state executive member Alex Dore”, along with Manly barrister Jane Buncle. Mike Baird, former Premier and now senior executive at NAB, set the hares running when he declined on opportunity to seek the position of chief executive at the bank, but “several Liberal sources doubted Mr Baird would want to take the pay cut to go to Canberra”.

• A number of victims of the Liberals’ 2018 Victorian election disaster are identified in The Age as potential successors for Mary Wooldridge’s Eastern Metropolitan seat in the Victorian Legislative Council, following her retirement announcement last week: John Pesutto, Heidi Victoria and Michael Gidley, respectively the former members for Hawthorn, Bayswater and Mount Waverley.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,091 comments on “Northern exposure”

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  1. Brexit had majority voter support …and it was wrong to deny them.

    26% of the population voted for Brexit. It was less than 20% in Scotland and Greater London.

    Admittedly democracy is, ultimately, majority rule. That referendum wasnt democracy – it was an abandoned child from a mixed marriage between a clusterf and a conjob.

    The only way for voters to take voting more seriously than being dazzled by bright logo lies on a bus or branded by a tribe, is to pay the price of poor decision making. Yes, the rest suffer too. But they will suffer longer without proper accountability in voting habits. Trump should have been allowed to f up everything. Boris should be allowed to totally screw it all up to.

  2. Why didnt this plane get sent to get him out of Hawaii?

    An Antonov wouldnt have dragged him out of his beach side wicker chair any earlier. Narcissism is a dead weight.
    I have heard he left a day earlier than scheduled. Oh the sacrifice. WHat a guy.

  3. SK

    Labour UK has to cope with the system they have. Not the one they don’t

    Under our system Remain would have won.

    That also goes to different results for general elections.

  4. Simon Katich

    Whatever you call the vote pollies actively campaigning to ignore the vote is a very bad look. Vote and keep voting until you get it right ? Such brings great joy to the Worshipful Fraternity of Populists & Demagogues.

  5. SK

    I have heard he left a day earlier than scheduled. Oh the sacrifice. WHat a guy.

    Would not be surprised if some creative use of his being in a different time zone was used to calculate his ‘sacrifice’. Hawaii is nearly a day behind Australia.

  6. Rhwombat:

    Michael: Why don’t you fuck off back to Hawaii with ScumMo from Marketing?

    I believe there are two Michaels:
    – “michael” – who is the troll (and who started the “three hour cruise” thing)
    – “Michael” – who is a real poster (talking about other stuff)
    I think you meant to abuse “michael” rather than “Michael”…

  7. Labour UK has to cope with the system they have. Not the one they don’t
    Under our system Remain would have won.

    Under their system, referendums are not binding.
    The fact that such a small majority of voters (voters only, not general pubic, not majority in all jurisdictions…) in a nonbinding referendum can be sold as a must do hard brexit shows how big an advantage Tories and their big money lies have. Were the vote to have narrowly gone the other way you can be sure the Tories would have won the opposite argument.

    Whatever you call the vote pollies actively campaigning to ignore the vote is a very bad look.

    I tend to agree in this case. Labour are wading into a strong tide as it is. + See my post regarding voter accountability.

  8. From the Guardian live blog.

    The federal government has announced it will underwrite two new gas-fired power stations, with Scott Morrison saying it may still greenlight coal-fired generation for Queensland and New South Wales.

    Even as Australia suffers through a record-breaking heatwave Morrison said the government would continue to explore all power options and would not be deterred by “lots of shouting noises” and instead would listen to “those quiet still voices”.

    I am sure that is what people want to hear ATM. More tin ear.


  9. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 3:36 pm

    The question I raised was, what possessed Corbyn to be so stupid when he had the power to disallow an election? What made him think he could gain from it? He must have known as well as the fuckwit Boris that in a first past the post system it was Labor that was going to suffer from vote splitting.


    He wanted his glorious revolution.
    Second referendum and remains wins, it was all over no revolution.
    Lose election, all over no revolution.
    Same same for him.

  10. ‘Player One says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 3:53 pm

    Boerwar @ #4846 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 3:50 pm

    Wow! And it turns out that the perfect political solution for the 100% perfect set of policies is for Labor to adopt politically kamikazi policies!

    You should stop smoking coal. It is affecting your brain.’

    Wow. Straight from perfect policies through perfect politics to perfect snarking!

  11. Is it true that the

    Will proceed as normal on 30th December (projected top temperature 36℃ Newcastle).

    All fire fighters will be attending the various picnics and their replacements (MP’s, staffers, journalist, talking heads, fuckwits, bloggers and assorted bullshit artists) are currently being measured and fitted with designer equipment. High heels boots are in high demand as are colours suitable for the quality. Double breasted suits are at a premium and pocket kerchief to match are in short supply.

    Should the news regarding more coal fired power stations prove to be true – will the volunteers ever return?

  12. E. G. Theodore @ #4857 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    Rhwombat:

    Michael: Why don’t you fuck off back to Hawaii with ScumMo from Marketing?

    I believe there are two Michaels:
    – “michael” – who is the troll (and who started the “three hour cruise” thing)
    – “Michael” – who is a real poster (talking about other stuff)
    I think you meant to abuse “michael” rather than “Michael”…

    Absolutely. Apologies to Michael – and no apologies whatsoever to michael the Menzies House work-experience troll.

  13. Cat

    I have only said what the scientists have said.
    Don’t expand coal.

    I also have not tried to slag you off with insults based on your geographical location.

  14. ‘Nicholas says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 3:59 pm

    is how utterly idiotic it was for Corbyn to allow an election to happen.

    You are forgetting about the Lib Dems, the SNP and others who voted for the Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019 on 29th October. Johnson had the numbers for an early election even if Labour had voted against it.’

    Corbyn seems to have recognized that he was cornered. The dynamic was that Corbyn could deliver nothing but delay, denial, and denunciations. In Corbyn’s opinion, things for Labour were only going to get worse the longer they dragged the chain.

  15. Majority rule can be as tyrannical as any other. That is why there are protections, institutions etc. That is why big changes to important rules and norms normally require larger votes than simple slim majority.

    The UK voted to join the EU by a huge margin. 70-30? A narrow 51-49 margin to leave, with all the lies and poor turnout, shouldnt have been that hard to ague against. Especially for a soft brexit. But it was. The Labour party was disjointed, the remainers were fragmented. The Tories had Murdoch, money, and a rock solid base that bought all the shiny trinkets offered to them.

  16. BW

    The scary part was Corbyn may have been right. Delay in decision making is something both Remain and Leave camps in Labour seem to agree on.

  17. The rot for British Labour seems to have set in when they refused to buck outright the racism and the xenophobia and the narrow nationalism that were being fomented and/or harvested by the Faragist Tories in the Brexit/Remain dichotomy.

  18. ‘Player One says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 4:33 pm

    Boerwar @ #4861 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 4:22 pm

    Wow. Straight from perfect policies through perfect politics to perfect snarking!

    When you say something intelligent, you can expect an intelligent response.

    When you say something snarky, you can expect a snarky response.’

    Oh, the anguish!

    This is fucking like shooting fish in a barrel.

  19. “those quiet still voices”.

    Is that supposed to be messages received from on high? Because down here on earth he’s not listening to anyone. He’s making it up as he goes.

  20. Cud Chewer:

    A belated comment on the UK election..

    One thing that strikes me – and its strange how it doesn’t get much comment – is how utterly idiotic it was for Corbyn to allow an election to happen. When he could have stalled and ultimately gotten a second referendum. What on earth was Corbyn thinking? Discuss.

    ?
    Exactly what Tony Blair said before the election – they had Mr Johnson “locked in a box” and for some unknown reason unlocked the box. There are two theories:
    – the SNP (seeking to gain seats, which they did) and Lib Dems (for indecipherable reasons) forced Mr Corbyn’s hand;
    – Mr Corbyn was going to be rolled (for an empty chair) over Christmas; virtually anyone who might conceivably replace him would have beaten Mr Johnson easily – and Mr Corbyn (or more specifically his coterie) preferred to take the risk rather see anyone else lead Labour to victory

  21. SK
    ‘Underwrite’ means ‘approve’ and ‘subsidize using tax payers dollars’. Those babies will be spewing out CO2 emissions for the next generation.

    But, as we all know, same old same old and Labor should…

  22. Nicholas:

    You are forgetting about the Lib Dems, the SNP and others who voted for the Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019 on 29th October. Johnson had the numbers for an early election even if Labour had voted against it.

    I think that under the 2011 (?) act, an early election requires a supermajority, perhaps even as high as 75% and that the above is not correct

  23. ‘Player One says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 4:41 pm

    Boerwar @ #4871 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 4:37 pm

    This is fucking like shooting fish in a barrel.

    Did you have a point, or are just just feeling particularly snarky today?’

    Oh, diddums. Poor old P1 hoist on the petard of P1’s usual gambits.

    Did you appreciate that particular boomerang? Cute eh?

    And just to save William from having to put a stop to this very enjoyable stoush, I will leave this particular conversation with the thought that without a political solution to global warming we have nothing. De nada. Zip. Fuck all. Not even fish in a barrel!


  24. Boerwar says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 4:40 pm

    SK
    ‘Underwrite’ means ‘approve’ and ‘subsidize using tax payers dollars’. Those babies will be spewing out CO2 emissions for the next generation.

    But, as we all know, same old same old and Labor should…

    Greens have done it again. Solution is to reduce demand, they wanted stunts over reducing supply. They got neither.

    The problem is the little protest party and their senor partner are preventing Australia from dealing with a very serious problem.

  25. Ah – the supermajority required for an early UK general election is 2/3 (not 75%).

    Did Labour have fewer than 1/3 of the seats? They do now (I think) but didn’t then.

  26. rhwombat @ #4863 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 4:26 pm

    E. G. Theodore @ #4857 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    Rhwombat:

    Michael: Why don’t you fuck off back to Hawaii with ScumMo from Marketing?

    I believe there are two Michaels:
    – “michael” – who is the troll (and who started the “three hour cruise” thing)
    – “Michael” – who is a real poster (talking about other stuff)
    I think you meant to abuse “michael” rather than “Michael”…

    Absolutely. Apologies to Michael – and no apologies whatsoever to michael the Menzies House work-experience troll.

    Michael is also quite trollish. Earlier today he was demanding I disclose my Labor Party membership number because I had the hide to call nath, the alleged Green (more like a Socialist Alliance member), a psycho because nath dredged up some decontextualised comments of mine about Anthony Albanese from 2018 and 2019 to throw in my face, as well as insult me for a comment I made earlier today when I was feeling unwell and a bit touchy. Michael is an avid Greens’ supporter, hence he swung in behind alleged Green, nath.

    From memory michael is a Liberal troll.

    Of course I could be completely wrong and often am. 🙂

  27. FredNK

    The problem is the climate denying coal huggers in both parties.

    No matter how many times you say it the facts don’t change.

    The Greens and indeed any pro climate group had no vote in the LNP party room.

  28. “Scott Morrison may take another family holiday this year, despite Hawaii debacle”

    …despite the storm of criticism sparked by his tropical getaway, Mr Morrison isn’t ruling out more time off.

    Since everyone else is piling on, I will too.

    Saying the fires have been “going on for some time”, Mr Morrison reeled off a laundry list of bushfire-affected communities he has visited, including that of the two volunteer firefighters who died.

    He said he was “pleased” he could “provide some comfort” to them “on behalf of Jenny and I.”

    He should have said “Jenny and me”.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/tv/2019/12/23/scott-morrison-another-holiday/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020191223

  29. I think E. G. Theodore got it, Coybun would have been rolled over Christmas, pretty obvious the electorate had got sick of him. He chose destruction of the Labor party.

  30. Albanese is hopefully out there asking the question “how will the LNP stop this happening again”

    That, plus how wonderful the volunteers are, should be the only thing were hearing from the ALP.

    IMHO

  31. Boerwar @ #4877 Monday, December 23rd, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    And just to save William from having to put a stop to this very enjoyable stoush, I will leave this particular conversation with the thought that without a political solution to global warming we have nothing. De nada. Zip. Fuck all. Not even fish in a barrel!

    I really get under your skin, don’t I?

    Good.

  32. The “Fire and Rescue NSW Station 040 Willoughby” facebook page has some incredible videos of the fires in the Blue Mountains.


  33. guytaur says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 4:49 pm

    FredNK

    The problem is the climate denying coal huggers in both parties.

    No matter how many times you say it the facts don’t change.

    The Greens and indeed any pro climate group had no vote in the LNP party room.

    But your doing your best to keep them in power. Come on mate another rendition of same/same at the top of your voice.

  34. Blobbitt

    Albanese has been tweeting asking where is the national emergency meeting. Amounts to same thing.

    Mike Kelly has tweeted out about incompetency of leadership another good post.

  35. C@t:

    Michael is also quite trollish. Earlier today he was demanding I disclose my Labor Party membership number because I had the hide to call nath …

    I think you’re overreacting (understandable due to the involvement of nath). I took “Michael”‘s comment to be sarcasm. I could be wrong of course.

    Can I have your number, C@t?

  36. The UK voted to join the EU by a huge margin. 70-30? A narrow 51-49 margin to leave,?

    They realized they are better off out of the EU “Dogs Breakfast”, and they will get Britain Back!.
    Plus my British pension is going back up!.

  37. guytaur says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    FredNK

    Yes. The coal huggers are the same same in both parties.

    So be happy with the mess the Liberal are making, Labor can’t do better, and the greens can’t do nothing but support the Liberals

  38. I think that under the 2011 (?) act, an early election requires a supermajority, perhaps even as high as 75% and that the above is not correct

    The Bill that was passed on 29th October was a new Bill that merely needed a simple majority to pass. You are forgetting that the Act of Parliament that created fixed terms is just an ordinary Act of Parliament that can be amended or replaced at any time by another Act of Parliament.


  39. guytaur says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 4:59 pm

    FredNK

    Nope. Labor can reject the coal huggers in their ranks.

    And where would that lead, another protest of some sort, it might be harder to deal with.

    Might be easier to deal with the nonsense we know., convince the sane there is a difference between supply and demand, we can’t control supply but we can reduce out own demand and help others do so.

  40. “Blobbitt

    Albanese has been tweeting asking where is the national emergency meeting. Amounts to same thing.

    Mike Kelly has tweeted out about incompetency of leadership another good post.”

    Goodo.

    That’s all we need to be hearing. Hopefully he’s getting on the radio as well saying that. Twitter is nice, but not enough.

    And I hope he’s saying nothing else…

  41. FredNK

    There is more to the national interest and winning elections than backing one coal mine.

    In fact Queensland Labor has also been given a gift by Morrison today. IF it takes advantage.

  42. Why a new Bill?
    After failing to get the required 434 votes, the Government announced it would introduce a Bill on Tuesday 29 October 2019 to allow for an early general election on 12 December.

    Unlike an early general election motion under the FTPA, a Bill amending the law does not need the 2/3 super-majority to pass. It only requires a simple majority.

    The Bill also needs to pass all its stages in the House of Lords before being granted royal assent.

    What will the Bill do?
    The Bill introduced by the Government says there will be a general election on 12 December. Under the terms of the FTPA the next election after 12 December would be scheduled for Thursday 2 May 2024.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/legislation/what-does-the-early-parliamentary-general-election-bill-do/

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