Hands off Sankey

A visual representation of how votes flowed between the parties at the 2016 and 2019 elections, plus other observations from the Australian National University’s post-election survey.

First up, note that you can find Adrian Beaumont’s latest British election post immediately below this one, and that The Guardian has preliminary details of what will presumably be the last Essential Research poll for the year, which I will blog about this evening when the full report is available (suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).

Now on to some further observations from the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, at which I took a preliminary look at the tail end of the previous post. Over the fold at the bottom of this post you can find a Sankey diagram showing how respondents’ vote choices in 2016 and 2019 compared, based on the slightly contingency of their recollections of what they did three years ago.

These suggest the Coalition actually lost a sizeable chunk of voters to Labor – 5.1% of the total, compared with only 1.6% going the other way. I might take a closer look at the survey responses for that 5.1% one day, but presumably they were the kind of Malcolm Turnbull-supporting voter who drove the swing to Labor in affluent inner urban areas. The key point is that the Coalition was able to make good this loss out of those who were in the “others” camp (i.e. everyone but the Coalition, Labor and the Greens) in 2016 – both directly, in that fully 30% of “others” from 2016 voted Coalition this time (or 4.1% of voters overall, compared with 1.6% who went from others to Labor), and indirectly, in that their preference share from what remained went from 50.8% to 56.3%.

Before that, some other general observations based on my reading of the ANU’s overview of its findings:

• The survey adds context for some intuitively obvious points: that the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.

• Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.

• A drop in support for Labor among women caused the gender gap to moderate compared with 2016, although the unchanged 10% gap on the Liberal vote remains remarkable by recent historic standards. The new normal of Liberal doing better among men and Labor among women only really goes back to 2010 – back in the Keating era, it was Labor who had the women problem.

• Scott Morrison trounced Bill Shorten on popularity, their respective mean ratings on a zero-to-ten scale being 5.14 and 3.97.

• The number of respondents professing no party identity reached a new peak of 21%, maintaining a trend going back to 2010.

• The 2018 leadership coup was received as badly as the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd. The 2013 and 2015 coups were less badly received, but both scored over 50% disapproval.

• Long-term trends show a steady erosion in trust in government, satisfaction with democracy and belief government is run for “all the people”, although the 2019 results weren’t particularly worse than 2016. Satisfaction with democracy is poor compared to the countries with which Australia is normally compared – though slightly higher than the United Kingdom, which is presumably one symptom among many of Brexit.

Based on weighted results from the AES survey, this shows how votes moved between the parties at the 2016 election (on the left) and the 2019 election (on the right). Roll your mouse pointer over it to see the percentage figures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

702 comments on “Hands off Sankey”

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  1. Firefox
    says:
    Boris Johnson has committed a major gaffe on camera. This is the tweet from the reporter who was doing the interview including the video of it. He pockets the journalist’s phone to avoid looking at a photo of a kid on the floor of a hospital because there were no spare beds. Watch it. It’s all over the UK’s news this morning. The video is going viral.
    _________________________________
    Utterly bizarre. He clearly didn’t think the journo was going to call him out on grabbing the phone and putting it in his pocket. All he had to do was look at the photo, respond with some sympathy and promise to do his best to improve the system. Pretty simple really.

  2. A very consequential week.
    The UK election and the articles of impeachment in the US. Expect more bombshells.
    Meanwhile has Scotty really shipped his family to WA to avoid the hazardous air?

  3. shellbell
    says:
    Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:29 pm
    I would have added “Wakey, wakey…” at the start.
    __________________
    Too obvious. the art was in just sneaking it by people.

  4. William Bowe

    Thanks for that moving tribute, Nath.

    Was that special feeling in the cockles of your heart,maybe below the cockles, maybe in the sub-cockle area.Maybe in the liver. Maybe in the kidneys. Maybe even in the colon,… ?

  5. Maude Lynne @ #534 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 7:50 pm

    Good find, GG

    “The PM’s wife also admitted to a Labor MP they moved to Perth because the Sydney smoke was triggering one of the daughter’s asthma,” says Albenese.

    Scott Morrison denies the claims, releasing a statement a short time ago saying:

    “My family have been keen to visit Perth for a while now.”

    Once again, it’s not just the act, it’s also the attempt to deny reality.
    Morrison is going to regret doing this. His neighbours around Kirribilli and the North Shore will not forget

    https://doublebaytoday.com/pm-accused-of-moving-his-family-out-of-kirribilli-house-to-avoid-the-smoke-haze/

    1. What about every other kid in Sydney with asthma? They obviously don’t give two hoots about THEM.

    2. Wouldn’t Mrs Morrison, at the very least, if not the children, have been to Perth multiple times already with Scott Morrison before the election?

  6. C@t

    1. What about every other kid in Sydney with asthma?

    They can eat cake……………….or suck on eggs, the choice is theirs 🙁

  7. poroti
    says:
    Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:30 pm
    William Bowe
    Thanks for that moving tribute, Nath.
    Was that special feeling in the cockles of your heart,maybe below the cockles, maybe in the sub-cockle area.Maybe in the liver. Maybe in the kidneys. Maybe even in the colon,… ?
    _______________________
    Poroti. That is the nicest way I’ve been called an asshole, ever. 🙂

  8. I live in Queensland and have Never even heard of Dr Furuqi until now. No doubt a ‘ban hate speech’ (self defined), ‘Israel is evil,, ‘I am victimised because I am ……..’ type. Also no doubt quite wealthy.

    In other words just another hypocritical politician. However I’ll google her name now just to be sure.

  9. Did anyone answer my question about the Sankey?….. 5pts away from ALP and 10pts to ALP. Unadjusted data? My not understanding? Or election fraud?

    Be gentle. I am 3 days into a double detox.

  10. Look, I was in Woy Woy at the shops today and my son and I went and visited a friend of his who works in the local computer games shop. He was almost dying in front of our eyes from the smoke that had infiltrated even as far as the middle of the shopping complex! But, you know, he had to come to work because, it’s all about the Benjamins and bills, for just about everyone except those in the, and I guess I have to put allegedly here, corrupt Morrison cabal and its constellation.

  11. Be gentle. I am 3 days into a double detox.

    SK, come to Sydney! Being here is the equivalent of smoking a pack a day without actually doing it! Problem solved. 😀

  12. Scrott decamping the family and “abandoning” people in this hour of ”crisis’, now how would that be covered by the 2GB-Daily Telegraph axis if it was say Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd or Albo 😆 😆 😆 As for Sky After Dark

    And then

  13. Richardson is probably not even a curate’s egg.

    But Richardson on his own did give Australians more magnificent conservation wins than the entire Greens Party has in 30 years.

    How? He stitched up big deals and delivered on his part of the bargains.

    He was a fixer.

  14. Thanks poroti. I have often thought the final step of my political evolution would be to join a fringe populist party. However, ON are such a bunch of fucking morons that it cannot be them. Katter’s maybe. They seem to be pro union nowadays and oppose left identity politics so the boxes are being ticked

  15. Noone in the MSM has taken up the story. Could be a setup. He may have had the tickets booked for months to coincide with the cricket. Tread carefully.

  16. Ah yes. Here come the predictable comments attacking a Muslim for speaking out against Islamophobia. Instead of debating the issue at hand you go straight to her faith. How pathetic.

  17. Few families would be able to relocate to Perth until the Sydney smoke haze clears. Like Johnson’s response to the child sleeping on a hospital floor, Morrison’s flight to Perth may prove to untowardly affect both of their political standings. Morrison’s judgment, particularly, is extremely suspect. Granted, his daughter suffers from asthma, but it’s not a good look to decamp Sydney when so many are affected. King George and his family, for example, remained in London at the height of the blitz, though their daughters were safely ensconced at Windsor. And then he further displays what a fool he is by saying firies are happy with their lot, no more of them needed. I’m sorry but the man’s a fuckwit.

  18. Ok the Chardy’s I can understand, but coffee?!

    I’m getting a headache just contemplating it.

    …or are you cutting out dairy?

  19. Historyintime

    Yes indeed vacant niches in the vote market North of the Tweed are pretty hard to come by. Every sort of crazy seems to have been covered. You have a very hard task ahead of you to find a space.

  20. Mavis
    says:
    Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:58 pm
    Few families would be able to relocate to Perth until the Sydney smoke haze clears. Like Johnson’s response to the child sleeping on a hospital floor, Morrison’s flight to Perth may prove to untowardly affect both of their political standings. Morrison’s judgment, particularly, is extremely suspect. Granted, his daughter suffers from asthma, but it’s not a good look to decamp Sydney when so many are affected. King George and his family, for example, remained in London at the height of the blitz, though their daughters were safely ensconced at Windsor. And then he further displays what a fool he is by saying firies are happy with their lot, no more of them needed. I’m sorry but the man’s a fuckwit.
    _______________________________
    I agree. But. If you have a child who suffers badly from asthma and the resources to easily remove her, do you keep her in a smoke filled environment because removing her might endanger your political position? Pretty apt question considering what has happened this week.

  21. “But Richardson on his own did give Australians more magnificent conservation wins than the entire Greens Party has in 30 years.”

    Graham Richardson was one of our more effective environment ministers.

  22. “Congratulations to Labor and allies on getting good evidence based policy passed.”

    One of the allies was the WA Greens.

    Email from RDN:

    “Today, after decades of work, Western Australia will become just the second state in Australia to legalise voluntary assisted dying.

    WA Greens MLC Robin Chapple has worked hard on this reform since first introducing the legislation into the Western Australian parliament in 2002, and since then the WA Greens worked with all sides of politics to set up the foundations of this legislation.

    To everyone who called and lobbied their local MPs, to those who bravely shared their own personal stories about what this law would mean for them, and every single person who campaigned in their local communities for change, this would not have been possible without you.”

  23. nath

    Well Betty Windsor’s family thought it best to stay with ones subjects in London to face the common foe rather than high tailing it.

  24. Yes indeed vacant niches in the vote market North of the Tweed are pretty hard to come by. Every sort of crazy seems to have been covered. You have a very hard task ahead of you to find a space.

    Nah. Qld is a big place. The Mercator projection undersells it.

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