Hands off Sankey

A visual representation of how votes flowed between the parties at the 2016 and 2019 elections, plus other observations from the Australian National University’s post-election survey.

First up, note that you can find Adrian Beaumont’s latest British election post immediately below this one, and that The Guardian has preliminary details of what will presumably be the last Essential Research poll for the year, which I will blog about this evening when the full report is available (suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).

Now on to some further observations from the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, at which I took a preliminary look at the tail end of the previous post. Over the fold at the bottom of this post you can find a Sankey diagram showing how respondents’ vote choices in 2016 and 2019 compared, based on the slightly contingency of their recollections of what they did three years ago.

These suggest the Coalition actually lost a sizeable chunk of voters to Labor – 5.1% of the total, compared with only 1.6% going the other way. I might take a closer look at the survey responses for that 5.1% one day, but presumably they were the kind of Malcolm Turnbull-supporting voter who drove the swing to Labor in affluent inner urban areas. The key point is that the Coalition was able to make good this loss out of those who were in the “others” camp (i.e. everyone but the Coalition, Labor and the Greens) in 2016 – both directly, in that fully 30% of “others” from 2016 voted Coalition this time (or 4.1% of voters overall, compared with 1.6% who went from others to Labor), and indirectly, in that their preference share from what remained went from 50.8% to 56.3%.

Before that, some other general observations based on my reading of the ANU’s overview of its findings:

• The survey adds context for some intuitively obvious points: that the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.

• Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.

• A drop in support for Labor among women caused the gender gap to moderate compared with 2016, although the unchanged 10% gap on the Liberal vote remains remarkable by recent historic standards. The new normal of Liberal doing better among men and Labor among women only really goes back to 2010 – back in the Keating era, it was Labor who had the women problem.

• Scott Morrison trounced Bill Shorten on popularity, their respective mean ratings on a zero-to-ten scale being 5.14 and 3.97.

• The number of respondents professing no party identity reached a new peak of 21%, maintaining a trend going back to 2010.

• The 2018 leadership coup was received as badly as the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd. The 2013 and 2015 coups were less badly received, but both scored over 50% disapproval.

• Long-term trends show a steady erosion in trust in government, satisfaction with democracy and belief government is run for “all the people”, although the 2019 results weren’t particularly worse than 2016. Satisfaction with democracy is poor compared to the countries with which Australia is normally compared – though slightly higher than the United Kingdom, which is presumably one symptom among many of Brexit.

Based on weighted results from the AES survey, this shows how votes moved between the parties at the 2016 election (on the left) and the 2019 election (on the right). Roll your mouse pointer over it to see the percentage figures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

702 comments on “Hands off Sankey”

Comments Page 14 of 15
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  1. Mavis

    According to RDN:

    “Across the rest of Australia, the campaign continues. Next up is the NT and ACT, where they’re fighting for the right to pass voluntary assisted dying legislation. Because your right to choose at the end of life should not be restricted simply because of your postcode.”

  2. poroti
    says:
    Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 10:06 pm
    nath
    Well Betty Windsor’s family thought it best to stay with ones subjects in London to face the common foe rather than high tailing it.
    ___________________________________
    And that was a political decision to put the family in slight danger for the opportunity of strengthening the monarchy. This was when they started to call themselves The Firm remember.

  3. Sandy, the headaches stopped a few hours ago. I can’t tell you how f’ing stupid this is. But after going through that I ain’t touching a coffee till I get to the end.
    Just because.

  4. Confessions @ #647 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 10:07 pm

    A message to all those impacted by the bushfires, from those good samaritans at Hillsong church.

    https://twitter.com/Hillsong/status/1196561062104948736

    I don’t really care about cults. 🙂

    However, I listened and this little gem popped out at me:

    “In the middle of it all (the fires), there is hope in Jesus”.

    So, you’re standing there, in the middle of all the destruction, your local forest or your house has burnt down, and you’re supposed to just delude it all away!?!

  5. Simon Katich
    Headaches eh ? I have never had one . Living breathing support for the “no brain,no pain” hypothesis 🙂 Also makes it hard to empathize with sufferers 👿

  6. nath:

    [‘I agree. But. If you have a child who suffers badly from asthma and the resources to easily remove her, do you keep her in a smoke filled environment because removing her might endanger your political position? Pretty apt question considering what has happened this week.’]

    Most parents do their best for their children. If it was me, I’d probably do the same. But I’m not the PM. What Morrison is not conceding is that according to the AQI, the situation in Sydney is very dangerous, some 11 metrics over the acceptable limit, causing, for example, the CFMMEU to down tools this morning. Yet he carries on as if it’s situation normal while looking after his own, with a RAAF plane at his disposal. He’s got the cerebral capacity of a caraway seed, with room to spare.

  7. Can’t believe the Queensland cricketers didn’t kick up a stink about the playing conditions at the SCG today, especially given the state of the match.

  8. Maude Lynne

    In other words, breathe it at your own risk. You may end up in hospital if you have a lung complaint

    https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/air-quality/current-air-quality

    Tom Lehrer was on to this years ago:


    If you visit American city
    You will find it very pretty
    Just two things of which you must beware
    Don’t drink the water and don’t breathe the air

    Pollution, pollution

    They got smog and sewage and mud
    Turn on your tap
    And get hot and cold running crud

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mvYec6AnCU

  9. nath:

    [‘And that was a political decision to put the family in slight danger for the opportunity of strengthening the monarchy. This was when they started to call themselves The Firm remember.’]

    No doubt about that. Had they gone to Canada, as was proposed, that would’ve been the end of the monarchy. Such a shame they didn’t go. The RAF got the better of the Germans in the Battle of Britain; an aside, my old dear helped put the Spitfires together. After the blitz ended, there was little danger for the Windsors. Until now, where Andrew’s proclivities might bring “The Firm” down – we live in hope.

  10. I can see why the PM would send family to a Perth hotel. Fine, IF he did, as long as that is all at his expense.

    So long as he’s not charging the Flights or Hotel to the public purse. Article linked says he is traveling, Canberra, Sydney, New Zealand, Perth ?? He’d better not be charging the Flights to Perth to his expenses? Will be interesting if this story gets legs.

    If its at his expense no story there, if not…deep do-do.

  11. “Just go out for a breath of air
    And you’ll be ready for Medicare.
    The city streets are really quite a thrill –
    If the hoods don’t get you, the monoxide will.”

    Ah, Lehrer.

  12. “In the middle of it all (the fires), there is hope in Jesus”.

    Yes that is quite something to offer in the face of people’s suffering and stress.

  13. So I am apparently presented with the ACT, the ACT!, as the grand pinnacle of Greens achievement.

    It’s actually pathetic.

    As soon as every Labor government disavows the Greens completely, rhe better. Be done with this pox of posers.

    You can howl and moan from the sidelines as much as like. But really, what are you going to do? Preference the Liberals?

  14. “If its at his expense no story there,” Agree.

    ” if not…deep do-do.” If Morrison were a Labor PM, yes, otherwise nothing to see.

  15. If it’s true that Morrison is sending the family to Perth to escape the bushfire smoke, why not give them a holiday at Christmas on Christmas Island?

    By all accounts, the Detention Hotel was reopened some months ago at a cost of $100 million or so and currently has only four guests.

    Not much chance of bushfire smoke there.

  16. Call me a slow thinker!

    Last night on 7.30 there was a long segment on volunteer firies, with all those interviewed telling us what a wonderful life it was: giving up their day jobs, working ling shifts seven days a week, risking their lives, hot, filthy and bone tired.

    https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/volunteer-fire-fighters-giving-their-all-to-save/11782162

    I thought it sounded a bit strange at the time.

    Then Morrison told us all today how happy the volunteers were.

    Was last night’s 7.30 a bit of pump-priming?

  17. A Bravo-Zulu to the Andrews’ Government for setting the precedent for assisted dying, Marshall Perron having attempted same in the NT, only having the Howard Government overturn it in ’97. I sleep well now, knowing that soon in Queensland I can end it all at my choosing – not that I’m soon going?

  18. “imacca:

    I’ve little doubt that Morrison, his family, flew to Perth on a RAAF flight, for security reasons.”

    If he’s flown them on the public purse he is properly, publicly accountable for that and he will likely get feedback from other Sydney residents with sick kids who may not be able to access flights to and accommodation in Perth. That would be fair.

  19. “Are you going to preference the Liberals, Pegasus?

    Come on, i know you want to.”

    Ahhhhh…..so sad for Horsie…….to express REAL impotent fury you need optional preferential system so that you are not all dirtied by having your preference eventually filter down to one of the majors.

  20. James Comey has the last laugh.

    For two years, the president of the United States and his followers have loudly declared that the FBI acted unlawfully in conducting a counterintelligence investigation of Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential campaign.

    They repeatedly told the American people that the FBI had done all sorts of bad things, such as tapping Donald Trump’s wires during the campaign, opening an investigation without adequate cause, with the intent to damage Trump, and inserting secret informants into the Trump campaign.

    President Trump said the FBI’s actions were “treason.” The current attorney general even slimed his own organization by supporting Trump’s claims, asserting there had been “spying” on the campaign. Crimes had been committed, the Trump crowd said, and a whole bunch of former FBI leaders, including me, were likely going to jail.

    On Monday, we learned from a report by the Justice Department’s inspector general, Michael Horowitz, that the allegation of a criminal conspiracy was nonsense. There was no illegal wiretapping, there were no informants inserted into the campaign, there was no “spying” on the Trump campaign.

    Although it took two years, the truth is finally out.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/james-comey-the-truth-is-finally-out-the-fbi-fulfilled-its-mission/2019/12/09/614df00c-1aad-11ea-8d58-5ac3600967a1_story.html

  21. BB

    Last night on 7.30 there was a long segment on volunteer firies, with all those interviewed telling us what a wonderful life it was

    Not quite all
    Phil Koperburg injected a sombre note.
    He said they will need counsellors to support the volunteers, and the ADF should deploy at least 300 troops to provide relief, 200 of those into National Parks to help fight the fires.
    Will Morrison the Brave come back from Perth to actually provide support deployment, and (dare I say it) leadership?

  22. If it was only to get a child who suffers with asthma away from the Sydney pollution, not something any parent should be criticized for, then why all the way to Perth? There is lots of Australia between Sydney and Perth. This has to be a sad reflection of what Australian politics has become, using children to try and score political points. Pathetic really.

  23. As far as I can see the problem is that Scomo has fudged the truth. Why not admit he wanted to protect his daughter as well as give them a holiday?

    Because he somehow can’t admit there is a problem with Sydney air.

  24. The city is full of children who suffer asthma, and are no doubt in danger from the smoke. All our PM, Morrison the Brave, has offered them is thoughts and prayers. An air purifier for each family with a young asthmatic child would go a long way to alleviate distress caused by the highest AQI particulates ever recorded in Sydney.
    But no, we only get words.

    Morrison the Brave Christian needs to re-read his Bible…….
    And act.

    What good is it, dear brothers and sisters, if you say you have faith but don’t show it by your actions? Can that kind of faith save anyone?

    Suppose there are brothers or sisters who need clothes and don’t have enough to eat. What good is there in your saying to them, “God bless you! Keep warm and eat well!” – if you don’t give them the necessities of life?

    So you see, faith by itself isn’t enough. Unless it produces good deeds, it is dead and useless.

    (James 2:15-18)

  25. “If it was only to get a child who suffers with asthma away from the Sydney pollution, not something any parent should be criticized for, then why all the way to Perth?”

    Davidwh, if this is a true story and/or there have been significant public funds expended the ScoMo deserves a world of hurt. I sympathize with any parent who’s child has a chronic condition. But…. the PM has access to options (like setting up a room with an air filter/purifier for the child) that are available to to most people (unless you are homeless or on Newstart 🙁 ) that are not as expensive and extreme as flying the family across the country.

    And over here we are heading into 3 days of 40 degrees. Hope it wont but dont be surprised if things flare up here.

  26. There is nothing wrong with sending fhe kids to Perth, but Morrison should stay and breathe the same air as the rest of Sydney’s residents. It is not that he got his daughter out, he got himself out.


  27. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 10:06 pm

    “Congratulations to Labor and allies on getting good evidence based policy passed.”

    One of the allies was the WA Greens.

    Email from RDN:

    “Today, after decades of work, Western Australia will become just the second state in Australia to legalise voluntary assisted dying.

    WA Greens MLC Robin Chapple has worked hard on this reform since first introducing the legislation into the Western Australian parliament in 2002, and since then the WA Greens worked with all sides of politics to set up the foundations of this legislation.

    To everyone who called and lobbied their local MPs, to those who bravely shared their own personal stories about what this law would mean for them, and every single person who campaigned in their local communities for change, this would not have been possible without you.”

    So is this one of the Greens achievements, claiming responsible for legislation passed by a Labor Government. The Greens really are impotent and contemptible.
    Vote 1 Green to destabilize Labor and for more nonsense press releases from RDN.

  28. So after thoughts and prayers fail, we get,
    “In the middle of it all (the fires), there is hope in Jesus”.
    What hope that thoughts and prayers will work?

  29. The SmearStralian is denying there is a smoke pollution emergency in Sydney, by ignoring any mention of it in their top online stories – as is the Daily ToiletPaper who is all ‘disaster porn’ over the NZ tragedy.

    As for Sydney’s smoke, a nice story about how the resilient residents stoically handled this minor intrusion on their ‘how good is this’ lives.

    In other words, the Murdoch organs spin is ‘suck it up’.

  30. What the SmearStralian has been running is ‘who are the powerful influencers – the inner sanctum’ series, mostly blowing smoke (sic) up Morrison’s arse.

    And to round out the series, today they have allegedly nailed down Albo’s new crew

    ‘ Anthony Albanese has sidelined Bill Shorten’s union powerbase, turned to his old left-wing network and recruited experienced campaign strategists to put Labor back in the game ahead of the 2022 ­election.

    In the final instalment of The Power List, The Australian reveals the Opposition Leader has moved quickly to clean out Shorten loyalists and install new blood in his inner sanctum, including a shrewd digital media team to combat the Coalition’s election dominance.

    At the centre of the team Albanese has built around him is new chief of staff Tim Gartrell, the “Kevin 07” mastermind, former ALP national secretary and director of the successful “Yes” marriage equality campaign.

    “Tim knows how to win elections. It’s as simple as that. He was critical to the successful campaign that got Kevin elected,” a senior Labor source said.

    Gartrell and other senior ­recruits, including deputy chief of staff Sabina Husic, join a team of long-time Albanese lieutenants, including communications director Matthew Franklin and Jeff Singleton.’

  31. Let the battle begin!

    No, not the useless Labor vs Greens wars on PB, Mark Zuckerberg vs Peter Dutton, Priti Patel and William Barr!

    Tech giant Facebook has accused the Australian, United States and British governments of demanding a fundamental weakening of the company’s products that would be a “gift” to the world’s criminals, hackers and dictators and endanger innocent people.

    Executives from Facebook – which operates WhatsApp, Instagram and Messenger – have declared they will not compromise the security of their messaging services for the sake of law enforcement, firing back at Western governments that recently demanded the company abandon plans to encrypt communications across its products.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/facebook-refuses-to-compromise-on-privacy-firing-back-at-australia-us-and-uk-20191210-p53ik7.html

  32. A bit more from the Smear article…

    ‘Paul Erickson, the new ALP national secretary who took the reins following the disastrous May 18 election campaign, is said to have quickly formed a close relationship with the Labor leader and has been handed the task of rebuilding towards the ALP national conference in Canberra next year.

    Albanese has also broken the mould of Shorten’s office, which was dominated by “spin doctors”. He has brought in former senior Labor advisers in the key areas of engagement and research.

    Husic — sister of NSW Right Labor MP Ed Husic — is highly ­regarded as a result of her digital and social media campaigning work under Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. She had most ­recently been employed by Liberal Party powerbroker Michael ­Photios at his PremierState lobbying firm.

    A key component of the damning ALP election review focused on how Labor’s digital, advertising and ground game was trounced by the Coalition. Gartrell, Erickson and Husic have been drafted in to lead Labor’s resurgence.‘

  33. sprocket_
    Labor is in good hands with Paul Erickson. I heard from him on the weekend. He is calm, thoughtful, emotionally well-balanced and whip smart!

  34. I hope there isn’t too much throwing babies out with bathwaters when it comes to Labor ‘rebuilding’.

    The 2016 election result was seen as amazing by Labor insiders. They literally couldn’t believe they’d done so well.

    The 2019 result was basically the same (seat wise). It’s seen as a disaster.

    Now, context is all – Labor should have improved on its former result, mistakes were made, yada yada, but to look at basically the same outcomes and declare one to be outstanding and the other a complete disaster has to lack some perspective.

    The next Labor campaign has to have more of a focus on Queensland and WA – but if it changes too much to do this, it runs the risk of losing what it has built elsewhere, which could be equally disastrous.

  35. zoomster @ #693 Wednesday, December 11th, 2019 – 7:09 am

    I hope there isn’t too much throwing babies out with bathwaters when it comes to Labor ‘rebuilding’.

    The 2016 election result was seen as amazing by Labor insiders. They literally couldn’t believe they’d done so well.

    The 2019 result was basically the same (seat wise). It’s seen as a disaster.

    Now, context is all – Labor should have improved on its former result, mistakes were made, yada yada, but to look at basically the same outcomes and declare one to be outstanding and the other a complete disaster has to lack some perspective.

    The next Labor campaign has to have more of a focus on Queensland and WA – but if it changes too much to do this, it runs the risk of losing what it has built elsewhere, which could be equally disastrous.

    Yeah it does have a whiff of pre-season at the local football club. They’ve recruited well, everyone’s mates, they’re training the house down and they haven’t lost a game yet.

  36. lizzie @ #688 Wednesday, December 11th, 2019 – 6:50 am

    @JulianCribb
    ·
    2h
    David Attenborough said Australia’s climate stance proves that it doesn’t ‘give a damn’ about the rest of the world
    https://businessinsider.com/david-attenborough-furious-with-australia-over-climate-change-stance-2019-9?utmSource=twitter&utmContent=referral&utmTerm=topbar&referrer=twitter via
    @businessinsider

    He’s perfectly correct, of course. Most Australians don’t give a crap about the rest of the world. Just like our disgraced cricketers, they somehow still believe Australia “leads the world” and therefore doesn’t have to play by the rules – when the truth is that our country is heading downhill according to nearly ever indicator – economic, environmental, political, social, intellectual …

    Here is what Attenborough had to say back in July … before the current crisis …

    Appearing before the UK parliament’s business, energy and industrial strategy committee in July, he framed Australia as a particularly egregious example of a country run by people who are not interested in dealing with climate change.

    “Notable, of course, is the United States, but also in Australia which is extraordinary actually because Australia is already having to deal with some of the most extreme manifestations of climate change,” Attenborough told the UK House of Commons.

    We think we are immune from the consequences of our actions, but the rest of the world has started to take notice that we are refusing to pull our weight. We are well on our way to becoming a pariah state, as I predicted quite a few years ago that we would 🙁

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