First up, note that you can find Adrian Beaumont’s latest British election post immediately below this one, and that The Guardian has preliminary details of what will presumably be the last Essential Research poll for the year, which I will blog about this evening when the full report is available (suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).
Now on to some further observations from the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, at which I took a preliminary look at the tail end of the previous post. Over the fold at the bottom of this post you can find a Sankey diagram showing how respondents’ vote choices in 2016 and 2019 compared, based on the slightly contingency of their recollections of what they did three years ago.
These suggest the Coalition actually lost a sizeable chunk of voters to Labor – 5.1% of the total, compared with only 1.6% going the other way. I might take a closer look at the survey responses for that 5.1% one day, but presumably they were the kind of Malcolm Turnbull-supporting voter who drove the swing to Labor in affluent inner urban areas. The key point is that the Coalition was able to make good this loss out of those who were in the “others” camp (i.e. everyone but the Coalition, Labor and the Greens) in 2016 – both directly, in that fully 30% of “others” from 2016 voted Coalition this time (or 4.1% of voters overall, compared with 1.6% who went from others to Labor), and indirectly, in that their preference share from what remained went from 50.8% to 56.3%.
Before that, some other general observations based on my reading of the ANU’s overview of its findings:
• The survey adds context for some intuitively obvious points: that the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.
• Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.
• A drop in support for Labor among women caused the gender gap to moderate compared with 2016, although the unchanged 10% gap on the Liberal vote remains remarkable by recent historic standards. The new normal of Liberal doing better among men and Labor among women only really goes back to 2010 – back in the Keating era, it was Labor who had the women problem.
• Scott Morrison trounced Bill Shorten on popularity, their respective mean ratings on a zero-to-ten scale being 5.14 and 3.97.
• The number of respondents professing no party identity reached a new peak of 21%, maintaining a trend going back to 2010.
• The 2018 leadership coup was received as badly as the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd. The 2013 and 2015 coups were less badly received, but both scored over 50% disapproval.
• Long-term trends show a steady erosion in trust in government, satisfaction with democracy and belief government is run for “all the people”, although the 2019 results weren’t particularly worse than 2016. Satisfaction with democracy is poor compared to the countries with which Australia is normally compared – though slightly higher than the United Kingdom, which is presumably one symptom among many of Brexit.
Based on weighted results from the AES survey, this shows how votes moved between the parties at the 2016 election (on the left) and the 2019 election (on the right). Roll your mouse pointer over it to see the percentage figures.
FFS
Voter sentiment is also negative about unions in other respects. Almost half the sample (49%) agree with the observation “overall unions have too much power today”, while 68% agree that union officials should be disqualified for breaching administrative laws such as failing to file annual financial reports – which is part of the Morrison government’s union bill
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/morrison-gets-thumbs-up-from-coalition-voters-but-overall-disapproval-rises-essential-poll
Love the Sankey diagram.
Fess I think Turnbull ruled it out because he, correctly in my opinion, believed it would get rejected at this time.
That’s what happens when you rule something out, so your opinion is correct.
Awesome work WB.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Alexandra Smith reports that Sydney is facing its toughest ever water restrictions.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/sydney-faces-level-3-water-restrictions-within-months-20191209-p53i95.html
Katharine Murphy looks at some of the latest Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/morrison-gets-thumbs-up-from-coalition-voters-but-overall-disapproval-rises-essential-poll
Andrew Hastie says that the West had watched on passively while states such as Russia and China had weaponised “previously benign” areas such as diplomacy, media, investment flows, infrastructure development and foreign asset purchases and has urged democracies to engage in political warfare to preserve peace
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hastie-urges-democracies-to-engage-in-political-warfare-to-preserve-peace-20191203-p53g7u.html
Rod Meyer explains how population growth is hiding a moribund underlying Australian economy.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2019/12/09/what-is-hiding-the-true-position-of-the-australian-economy-is-people/
The SMH editorial says that if Angus Taylor gets his way with the accounting trick at the climate change gathering in Madrid this will send a very bad signal to other countries that are already trying to twist the rules.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/backdown-on-paris-climate-targets-would-set-a-bad-example-to-the-world-20191209-p53icy.html
Jason Wilson writes that Australia needs to challenge authority if we’re going to confront water, fire and climate crises.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/09/australia-needs-to-challenge-authority-if-were-going-to-confront-water-fire-and-climate-crises
The Morrison government has come under attack for its inaction on climate change, after former royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne blamed political “short-termism” for stifling Australia’s response to the crisis.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/12/09/hewson-hayne-climate/
Jennifer Wilson writes about Berejiklian’s and Morrison’s eerie silence on bushfires and Sydney water quality fears.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/berejiklian-and-morrisons-eerie-silence-on-bushfires-and-sydney-water-quality-fears-,13392
In this quite concerning contribution to The Conversation Tony Walker says that 2019 was a year of global unrest, spurred by anger at rising inequality – and 2020 is likely to be worse!
https://theconversation.com/2019-was-a-year-of-global-unrest-spurred-by-anger-at-rising-inequality-and-2020-is-likely-to-be-worse-128384
Adele Ferguson writes about the parliamentary inquiry into auditing that has exposed an industry that is dominated by four big audit firms that are opaque and conflicted and the partnership structure means they can largely escape scrutiny.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/parliamentary-auditing-inquiry-exposes-an-opaque-conflicted-industry-20191209-p53ibe.html
Truth is said to be the first casualty of war, but today it is the first casualty of politics. This is a direct threat to our democratic norms argues Martin Hirst who uses Angus Taylor as a prime example.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/truth-and-lies-and-angus-taylor,13393
David Crowe writes that Labor has lashed out at the Greens for claiming Anthony Albanese valued coal “more than human life” because he would not back an export ban.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lazy-symbolism-labor-fights-back-at-greens-on-coal-exports-20191209-p53iaf.html
Peter Hartcher explains why India is heading to be the next “big thing”.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beyond-cricket-and-curry-india-could-be-the-next-big-thing-20191209-p53i38.html
An important part of the World Trade Organization will cease to function from midnight. December 10 is when the terms of two of the remaining three members of its Appellate Body expire. It is meant to have seven. This is all due to the United States which has blocked every proposed appointment and reappointment since June 2017.
https://theconversation.com/key-trade-rules-will-become-unenforceable-from-midnight-australia-should-be-worried-126768
Sally Whyte reports that Australians living in aged care are often denied proper health care, with disturbing accounts of misdiagnosed, mistreated or ignored health issues as described to the aged care royal commission yesterday.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6533706/heart-attack-ignored-royal-commission-hears/?cs=14350
Dan Tehan has called on state counterparts to “move quickly” towards a rollout of improved teaching methods across Australia’s schools to better track students’ development and help turn around declining academic results.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/education-minister-pushes-for-back-to-basics-approach-in-schools-20191209-p53i7z.html
The Australian’s environment editor, Graham Lloyd, planned an eco-retreat in the Peruvian jungle where a shaman would use plants with hallucinogenic properties to treat illness and depression, a Melbourne court has heard.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/09/the-australian-environment-editor-graham-lloyd-retreat-shaman-hallucinogens-court-told
Rob Harris tells us that today the Morrison government will begin the first major reset of its international aid and development program since 2013, appointing former diplomat and senior bureaucrat Dennis Richardson to head an expert panel.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-aid-budget-set-for-new-priorities-in-major-review-20191209-p53i46.html
Stephen Koukoulas reckons the Reserve Bank of Australia has made a range of serious policy errors over the past few years, and the Australian economy is weaker because of those mistakes and misjudgments.
https://thekouk.com/item/699-the-rba-has-the-tools-to-fix-the-economy-but-is-reluctant-to-use-them.html
John Falzon writes that Despite the extraordinary suppression of parliamentary debate as it tries its hand at a macabre resurrection, the recent defeat of the misnamed Ensuring Integrity Bill has left the Government and those whose interests it serves apoplectic with rage.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6531282/defeat-of-union-busting-bill-a-tangible-sign-of-hope/?cs=14258
A group representing the interests of some of the country’s biggest institutional investors is pushing for mandatory reporting of workplace death and safety incidents at S&P/ASX 200 companies, after a joint investigation with accounting firm EY found major disclosure gaps.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/investor-group-urges-better-workplace-safety-reporting-at-top-firms-20191209-p53i3p.html
After a lengthy review ASIC has released a 96-page document setting out updated guidance for responsible lending laws, which are intended to stop consumers from taking on “unsuitable” debts.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-aims-to-provide-clarity-on-credit-with-responsible-lending-update-20191209-p53i8k.html
Denis Atkins thinks the rape claim will tarnish Bob Hawke’s legacy.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/rape-claim-will-tarnish-the-hawke-legacy-20191209-p53i2w.html
Neil McMahon summarises last night’s Q and A.
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/it-was-vintage-malcolm-turnbull-on-q-and-a-as-tony-jones-bowed-out-20191210-p53iei.html
Bevan Shields says that Johnson’s and Corbyn’s popularity ratings would offer even Prince Andrew some comfort.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/johnson-and-corbyn-s-popularity-ratings-would-offer-even-prince-andrew-some-comfort-20191209-p53i15.html
Boris Johnson has been accused of not caring after he repeatedly refused during a TV interview to look at a photo of a four-year-old boy forced to sleep on the floor at an overcrowded A&E unit, before pocketing the reporter’s phone on which he was being shown the picture.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor
Marina Hyde says that the boy on the floor photo prompted Boris to add larceny to mendacity.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/boy-on-the-floor-photo-prompts-boris-to-add-larceny-to-mendacity
And John Harris opines that a Boris Johnson victory would do nothing to hide the growing gap between Conservatism and the country at large.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/09/wins-tories-future-boris-johnson-victory-conservatism
Russia has been banned from the Olympics and other events. Enough for nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/russia-banned-from-olympics-and-world-cup-for-doping-20191209-p53ie5.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe and Albo’s coal epiphany.
Cathy Wilcox on the opacity of this government.
Alan Moir goes to Madrid.
From Matt Golding.
John Shakespeare with Albo’s coal conversion.
Mark David goes to the future.
Peter Broelman lines up Morrison’s performance with the fires.
Zanetti back to normal.
From the US
The largest voter migration was Coalition to Labor @5.1% , pretty impressive. Were they fleeing RWNJery or rather than being too “radical’ the policies Labor took to the election were actually OK and had appeal ?
BK says
This is often forgotten when Australia insists that what we do has no effect on the rest of the world “because we’re so small”.
Well, Malcolm Turnbull put me to sleep last night as I watched QandA. On and on and on he droned with his FIGJAM. He is not missed by this household. And the ‘best of’ reel shown at the end of QandA, after I woke up again, proved to me that it hasn’t really been all that it has been cracked up to be. Though I have high hopes for Hamish McDonald.
———
The largest voter migration was Coalition to Labor @5.1% , pretty impressive….
———
Yes. Especially considering the failings in the campaign, an unpopular Shorten and Palmers millions.
I completely agree with you – they need to think hard before throwing out the policy babies.
Awesome work BK.
5.1% from the Coalition to Labor. One would have thought that was more than enough but not this time.
Anyway, there’s some hope with non-voters: 0.9% –> Labor, 0.6% Greens, 0.5% Coalition, 0.5% Others. With These would mostly be new voters. So with preferences maybe +0.5% left. Young people care more about the climate than franking credits.
May that trend continue and accellerate. Maybe something to work on there.
Looking at the cartoons… is Albanese coming out of the post election hiatus with the pitch to coal regions rather poorly timed?
Or clever timing designed for greatest impact?
Morning all
Thanks BK for today’s offerings
(suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).
Just to reiterate in case Mr Bowe missed it. On the weekend Peter Lewis said that he is considering whether, if he reintroduces voting intention numbers, it might be in the form of a raw percentage for the major parties, like 47 and 45 respectively, with the rest left up in the air and no final 2PP given due to the lack of confidence he now has in putting up such a figure.
Lovely pictures Mr. W. Bowe. ✔
Good morning and thanks BK for your efforts with the Dawn Patrol.
I recently read that some of what masquerades as policy is just a Gummint testing for what can be got away with.
So from the BK Files
Rob Harris tells us that today the Morrison government will begin the first major reset of its international aid and development program since 2013, appointing former diplomat and senior bureaucrat Dennis Richardson to head an expert panel.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-aid-budget-set-for-new-priorities-in-major-review-20191209-p53i46.html
Pause for fresh coffee and pondering the key to the code above. ☕
Could be part of a standup comedy routine.
Possibly means another cut in aid.
Australian values – mythical properties at the heart of the newly announced Superminstry 👇👇
Although it is understood that as Homeopathy is based on the idea of water having memory* – and because of late – Australian water would appear to have memory of ash, smoke, dead Koala’s, Kangaroos, burnt flesh and destroyed buildings – a new title is being sought.
*Water memory is the purported ability of water to retain a memory of substances previously dissolved in it even after an arbitrary number of serial dilutions. … Water memory defies conventional scientific understanding of physical chemistry knowledge and is not accepted by the scientific community.
RI @ #570 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 11:59 pm
It is not me making the generalization, it is the authors of the report. They used oil as an example representing all fossil fuels.
You either didn’t actually read the report, or you didn’t understand it, or you are deliberately misrepresenting it because this report utterly demolishes your nonsense.
Perhaps you just hope that no-one will actually read the report? Because if they do, they will see just who is being disingenuous here.
Having watched many hours of the Trump impeachment hearings so many of the Republicans have come across as very angry, nasty types. It’s their DNA I suppose.
Morrison actually talking about the fires (not the cause), very surprising.
NZ has given him a chance to look like a PM – he isn’t he is a marketing / economic dry not a leader
Simon Katich @ #12 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 7:26 am
Albo has caved, so Labor effectively has the same incoherent policy chaos now that they had before the election … the election they lost, partly on this very issue.
Makes you wonder, doesn’t it?
That article by John Harris in The Guardian (thank you BK for sourcing it), has such resonance with the situation in Australia under Morrison. Especially this last bit (and it seems to be the script that most Populists are following as they sleepwalk the world to disaster):
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/09/wins-tories-future-boris-johnson-victory-conservatism
As above with the Tories, so below with the Tories in Australia. With a few minor tweaks.
The Conservative Cul de sac is what it is. All they’re good at is winning elections. Ideas and governing, not so much.
Tories rule on behalf of the “natural” rulers, mostly moneyed interests. These mainly want to get on with making more money without having to bother with things like worker rights, consumer rights, global heating, taxation…
So they don’t need “governing” skills so much.
One of your best, William.
How can oil represent all fossil fuels?
Each is used in a variety of different ways.
Just watch Q and A, I thought it was pretty good. Pretty smart bunch.
https://www.abc.net.au/tv/programs/qanda/
———
Albo has caved
———
We will see. As you know I am not a supporter of coal export bans (yet – There will very soon come a time to tax and then ban export to countries not meeting their commitments). The timing of his effort is curious. Takes the heat off the Coalition somewhat and distracts from the clever request for a COAG emergency meeting.
I would have thought he could afford to be less involved for a little longer. It suggests that winning back a couple regional seats and holding on to others and distancing the ALP from the Greens is a priority and something he wants to start on now.
Nice chart in Williams article. More voter movement than I thought there would be.
Simon Katich @ #27 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 8:24 am
I agree. I think this is, not a sign that he wants to go as far into Coalville as the Coalition, but a signal to the Workers that he does not want to leave them abandoned and adrift, like The Greens.
It has been said that he was the great tactician of the Gillard government who managed to get so much legislation passed, so I am hoping that he and Tim Gartrell are painting the bigger picture.
Good Morning
Thank you William. As has been said excellent work. 🙂
Barney
Abbott did three word slogans and you are wondering about oil being used to represent fossil fuels.
It seems you need to learn from the LNP effective tactics of campaigning.
SK
The misnomer is the Coal Export Bans.
Australia has already signed up to the future ones. That was part of the Paris agreement and if Australia keeps it up it will be on the receiving side of sanctions.
Some here will complain of hypocrisy. They can do it all they like. They forget Australia signed up to this for good reason. Just ask Senator Wong and Kevin Rudd.
The problem is that the stakes are higher than thought at the time of that agreement and the denial that this is the case.
@ItsBouquet tweets
Get a load of this “Albo” guy … stunning lack of vision.
“Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second rate people who share its luck. It lives on other people’s ideas …” https://twitter.com/ItsBouquet/status/1204153799826296834/photo/1
p1
It is not me making the generalization, it is the authors of the report. They used oil as an example representing all fossil fuels.
This is an outright lie. You purported to use the example cited in the report to argue an absurd point about coal. Your argument was unsuccessful. The propositions used in relation to oil while prices were rising do not apply to coal when prices are falling.
You continue to misrepresent the facts and the economics and the politics of coal in order to gratify your animosities.
FredNK
Not for the Greens despite all the rhetoric on this site.
It does help to look at the actual voters. Labor can win with South Australia Western Australia Tasmania and New South Wales making up for North Queensland.
It can probably win voters in North Queensland too from those undecideds.
The fact that Education did not feature in the campaign is a signal failure of communication.
I blame the Palmer Murdoch Alan Jones axis dominating the casual voter’s ability to hear the message.
Labor needs to get the casual or unengaged voter to trust Labor and our democracy.
Adani is the least of Labor’s worries as Labor wins on the environment.
Well it did before embracing coal.
Qanda last night was an ideal platform to show Turnbull’s waffling, hesitant way of speaking. Not impressive at all.
guytaursays:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 8:34
😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
You’ve got no idea why I asked the question, have you?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/inspector-general-report-trump-russia-investigation/2019/12/09/d5940d88-184c-11ea-a659-7d69641c6ff7_story.html
Although I believe it’s an alluvial diagram, not a Sankey diagram, I can’t but help feeling:
“Puns for all, and all for puns”
Barney
You obviously don’t follow the way media works in this country and why Abbott won with three word slogans.
Edit: No matter how much we whine about it we have to deal with the reality of the media landscape we have not fantasise about a media we don’t have.
As WB’s unambiguous visual representation shows, Labor is pivoting in the wrong policy direction on a number of fronts.
Labor has learnt nothing from its election loss and continues to muddy the waters with its increasingly ambiguous messages on global heating.
As ordinary citizens all over the world continue to take to the streets over inaction by their governments, Australia will become an international pariah.
Rick Wilsons latest :
Justice Department Watchdog Crushes Trumpworld’s Deep State Dreams
We were told Russia was a hoax, the president was persecuted by Obama, and the real traitors would be locked up. So much for all that.
For months, President Trump and his allies have been salivating over a report from the Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz, outlining what they expected would be a tale worthy of a John Le Carre novel. Taking a cue from Trump, Fox News and a constellation of right-wing media have promised us the report would reveal the smoking guns in the Deep State’s plot to destroy the president. The report, a product of Trump’s insistence that his servile Department of Justice investigate the origins of the Trump-Russia probe, would unleash the hounds of hell on the Democrats, the Obama administration, and the intelligence community.
Well, the report’s finally been released and the results are underwhelming, to put it mildly. Burn this phrase, lifted directly from the report, into your mind: “No evidence political bias influenced the decision to open the Russia probe.” As has happened time and again, Trump’s ludicrously overwrought promise — that this was to be a tentpole of his ongoing (and entirely imaginary) war against the Deep State — was followed by an utterly underwhelming outcome.
The Horowitz report, far from fulfilling the fantasies of the Trump squad, fell flat, showing that the Deep State wasn’t trying to do Trump in, but rather to merely do their jobs. Trump’s attacks on the FBI officials turned out to be — like most of Trump’s attacks — lies, smears, and distractions.
The intelligence community, the FBI, the FISA courts, and the DOJ weren’t attacking Trump.
They were protecting us.
MORE : https://gen.medium.com/justice-department-watchdog-crushes-trumpworlds-deep-state-dreams-7595d731b85f
Player One @ #20 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 8:02 am
I reckon that Turnbull bloke on q&a should be given a safe seat and drafted into federal parliament then made PM, he’d be really good.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 8:46 am
FredNK
Not for the Greens despite all the rhetoric on this site.
It does help to look at the actual voters. Labor can win with South Australia Western Australia Tasmania and New South Wales making up for North Queensland.
As long as voters think that the Greens and Labor are involved in some kind of pact that will deliver Green policies, Labor will lose elections.
The single best thing that Labor can do is to clearly differentiate itself from the Greens. This should include putting the Greens next to last on its HTVs.
mundo
Thank god for a laugh. 😆
Pegasus @ #38 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 8:51 am
It’s the Labor way.
No confidence, no passion, no rage, no enthusiasm, no ideas.
RI
Do you suggest the Greens put Labor next to last on its HTVs?
RI
The pact you speak of is called reality.
Labor and the Greens until recently were on the side of reality not fantasy.
Look at the Education policy. Labor drowned out. Gonski dead students getting worst results in world comparisons than have been done for years.
Same with Medicare. No message that resonated with voters.
Labor needs to get its issues on the agenda and stop playing on the LNP’s turf.
All Labor needed to do for that was embrace tax increases and have dental care included.
Of course with trust being the number one issue leading to voters becoming disengaged Shorten was the story much as its been denied on this site including by me. Nath was on the money there.
Labor’s first task is trust. Turning its back on science won’t do much to help trust.
lizzie @ #42 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 8:53 am
You’re welcome.
Finland’s new 34-year-old prime minister to be youngest in the world, backed by all-female leaders
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-10/sanna-marin-named-as-youngest-ever-finnish-prime-minister/11778860
Multiparty governance – Long live democracy.