First up, note that you can find Adrian Beaumont’s latest British election post immediately below this one, and that The Guardian has preliminary details of what will presumably be the last Essential Research poll for the year, which I will blog about this evening when the full report is available (suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).
Now on to some further observations from the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, at which I took a preliminary look at the tail end of the previous post. Over the fold at the bottom of this post you can find a Sankey diagram showing how respondents’ vote choices in 2016 and 2019 compared, based on the slightly contingency of their recollections of what they did three years ago.
These suggest the Coalition actually lost a sizeable chunk of voters to Labor – 5.1% of the total, compared with only 1.6% going the other way. I might take a closer look at the survey responses for that 5.1% one day, but presumably they were the kind of Malcolm Turnbull-supporting voter who drove the swing to Labor in affluent inner urban areas. The key point is that the Coalition was able to make good this loss out of those who were in the “others” camp (i.e. everyone but the Coalition, Labor and the Greens) in 2016 – both directly, in that fully 30% of “others” from 2016 voted Coalition this time (or 4.1% of voters overall, compared with 1.6% who went from others to Labor), and indirectly, in that their preference share from what remained went from 50.8% to 56.3%.
Before that, some other general observations based on my reading of the ANU’s overview of its findings:
• The survey adds context for some intuitively obvious points: that the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.
• Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.
• A drop in support for Labor among women caused the gender gap to moderate compared with 2016, although the unchanged 10% gap on the Liberal vote remains remarkable by recent historic standards. The new normal of Liberal doing better among men and Labor among women only really goes back to 2010 – back in the Keating era, it was Labor who had the women problem.
• Scott Morrison trounced Bill Shorten on popularity, their respective mean ratings on a zero-to-ten scale being 5.14 and 3.97.
• The number of respondents professing no party identity reached a new peak of 21%, maintaining a trend going back to 2010.
• The 2018 leadership coup was received as badly as the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd. The 2013 and 2015 coups were less badly received, but both scored over 50% disapproval.
• Long-term trends show a steady erosion in trust in government, satisfaction with democracy and belief government is run for “all the people”, although the 2019 results weren’t particularly worse than 2016. Satisfaction with democracy is poor compared to the countries with which Australia is normally compared – though slightly higher than the United Kingdom, which is presumably one symptom among many of Brexit.
Based on weighted results from the AES survey, this shows how votes moved between the parties at the 2016 election (on the left) and the 2019 election (on the right). Roll your mouse pointer over it to see the percentage figures.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 8:51 am
As WB’s unambiguous visual representation shows, Labor is pivoting in the wrong policy direction on a number of fronts.
Labor has learnt nothing by its election loss and continues to muddy the waters with its increasingly ambiguous messages on global heating.
As ordinary citizens all over the world continue to take to the streets over inaction by their governments, Australia will become an international pariah.
Absolute bollocks. Labor has to repudiate the Greens. Then it will have a fighting chance in elections. Unless it does this it will lose every time.
No need for comment. He was appointed by ScoMo.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 8:55 am
RI
Do you suggest the Greens put Labor next to last on its HTVs?
I wish you would. The G vote would collapse.
RI
Absolute Bollocks is right.
You have been on this site before the elections saying Labor must repudiate the Greens.
That worked out well for you.
Stop parroting LNP and allies narratives and Labor might just win some trust back.
phoenixRed:
I just love Rick’s turn of phrase!
Peg….the Greens have destroyed the centre-left plurality. Something has to give.
@Docavvers tweets
It appears that we have at the moment in the West a series of leaders, Trump, Morrison, Johnson, who have reached their positions because their lack of empathy means that all they care about is their own power. Nothing distracts them from their climb. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Pill testing – opposed by the NSW and Victorian premiers; supported by the Greens.
ACT pushes for national pill-testing after study finds it encouraged people to ditch unsafe drugs
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/act-pushes-for-national-pill-testing-after-study-finds-it-encouraged-people-to-ditch-unsafe-drugs
As long as the Greens are in favour of pill testing it will be unsupportable. Sad but true.
Pegasus
Can’t have that. Evidence based policy is part of the culture wars now. Labor in the ACT is just toxic because of the Greens.
The long term record of cooperation and wining elections means nothing according to the rusted on’s on this site.
RI
I think that just as voters believe that the Coalition is a superior economic manager, they also believe that Labor and the Greens are lefty friends. I doubt that much can change either belief in the minds of conservatives or those who do not follow politics.
It’s time the Greens voted to dissolve their party. They’re an obstacle to the goals they purport to serve. They do much more harm than good.
RI @ #34 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 8:46 am
Direct quotes from the report:
Oil is clearly being used as an example for ALL FOSSIL FUELS.
I suggest you stop making such a complete fool of yourself.
lizzie says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:09 am
RI
I think that just as voters believe that the Coalition is a superior economic manager, they also believe that Labor and the Greens are lefty friends. I doubt that much can change either belief in the minds of conservatives or those who do not follow politics.
It is partly because of the perception that the Greens and Labor are close that the LNP are able to depict themselves as being better economic managers.
RI
As if the Greens would put Labor next to last. If Labor puts the Greens next to last it will bleed votes.
The harbinger of we are all fucked. One would be led to believe Labor is incapable of creating its own vision and prosecuting it with authenticity and passion.
Who would have thought a minor party garnering 10% of voters holds so much sway over Labor that apparently has no agency of its own.
Get some spine.
RI
The LNP and media keep painting reality as told by science means the Greens and Labor are close.
Repeat your mantra till the cows come home and watch the voters flee as they buy your LNP narrative of fantasy ruling over reality.
lizziesays:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:02 am
It all comes down to what his role is.
If his role is to deal with the current drought, then he’s right, but if his role involves making policy suggestions for dealing with droughts in the future then his position is highly relevant.
@reardon_shaun tweets
First Peoples’ Assembly of Victoria host inaugural meeting at Parliament House to negotiate framework for treaty.
#Treaty
#springst
#auspol https://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/6534736/history-made-as-first-peoples-assembly-meets-for-the-first-time/
Yeah….the case cited by the UN relates to oil in a rising market, not coal in a falling market. You parade your mendacity, p1.
As WB’s unambiguous visual representation shows, Labor is pivoting in the wrong policy direction on a number of fronts.
Que? Do you know how to read the chart?
Because I see Labor peeling a stack of votes off the Coalition, and the Coalition peeling a stack of votes off others, and the greens taking some net votes off Labor (flows both ways, and I’d expect the new Greens votes to be returned in preferences).
What the chart doesn’t show is where these flows occurred, which is how the election was won and lost.
He could end it all today by resigning.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:13 am
RI
The LNP and media keep painting reality as told by science means the Greens and Labor are close.
Repeat your mantra till the cows come home and watch the voters flee as they buy your LNP narrative of fantasy ruling over reality.
Sad to say, but true nonetheless, global heating is campaigning for the LNP. The political strategy of the Greens serves the Greens but makes action on the environment almost impossible to achieve.
“I agree. I think this is, not a sign that he wants to go as far into Coalville as the Coalition, but a signal to the Workers that he does not want to leave them abandoned and adrift, like The Greens.”
***
The Greens are the biggest supporters of those who need help transitioning out of dying industries into new ones which actually have a future. We want these people to be looked after, just as we want anyone who is doing it tough to be looked after. There are wonderful opportunities for those in the mining industry to really embrace the clean energy revolution and find careers in the renewable energy sector. Where appropriate, we should be investing in renewable energy infrastructure in or near the old mining towns so they can directly benefit financially from their transition away from coal. Reward them with renewables. Give them opportunities. Let them be part of the exciting renewable future. We won’t abandon them or give them false hope.
What a stupid tweet! Has ‘Agent Smart’ watched the news to see what’s happening in NZ? I rather think their PM is occupied with her own country’s woes.
They should change their twitter handle to Agent Dumbass.
Was Labor perceived as the better economic manager before 1992 when the federated Greens party did not exist?
RI
Nah thats you saying its too hard we give up.
Good thing Labor did not do that with Medicare.
Labor knew then how to fight to get people to trust them.
When you have Doug Cameron Bob Carr and Peter Garret warning you are jumping off the cliff you would do well to listen to them.
They certainly do not promote the Green Party agenda. They promote the Labor party agenda.
Confessionssays:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:20 am
Agent 86 was never the brightest spark. 🙂
RI @ #70 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 9:14 am
I think if people read even just that short excerpt, they can see which of us is being mendacious.
lizzie
Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 9:02 am
Comment #48
The question now becomes —
Who or what is a Shane Stone ❓
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/drought-boss-shane-stone-puts-skin-in-game/news-story/0b3105df872de49ec1254cebdbec2c14
I see it now ❗ A remake of “Cool Hand Luke” with Mr. Whatsisname playing “Captain”.
Possibly Mr. ……would rather play the egg eating scene* which would be vastly entertaining for his supportive audience.
Note – I have no idea whether or no Mr. Stone will benefit anybody or anything in his new role as the new national drought tsar. I hope that the drama does not end in Yekaterinburg.
*The 1967 movie “Cool Hand Luke,” starring Paul Newman, is a classic. In this jailhouse film, Newman plays Lucas “Cool Hand Luke” Jackson, a sort of antihero who constantly challenges authority and never steps down from a fight or a bet. The most famous bet in “Cool Hand Luke” is the one about 50 eggs.
DM
I had this in mind….
Peg…the Greens run interference all the time. We get it. You absolutely despise Labor. The result – after 25 years – is the centre-left plurality has been wrecked, Labor has won just a single election and no important issue has been durably resolved on terms that favour working people and the environment. Not one. The centre-left are weaker now than at any time since WW1. The dysfunction is utterly debilitating and will keep the LNP in office just about permanently. This is the true state of Australian politics.
Fess
He’s merely drawing a comparison between Arden’s reaction to her tragedy and ScoMo’s to the bushfires.
Just a reminder for any that are buying the Blame the Greens for Labors election loss by the usual droning suspects.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/existential-crisis-labor-may-be-overtaken-by-the-greens-veterans-warn-20140407-zqrni.html
This is purely from Labor loyalists not Greens party people.
Argue the issues but in no way pretend that you can blame the Greens for the positions Labor takes.
@Peg 8:51am
The little Green Pony’s ruptured spleen is a textbook example of people interpreting information in accordance with preconceived bias and not what is actually said or written.
Have a reread of Pony’s anti Labor poop and then reflect on what William actually wrote. Especially this:
“ the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.”
You can make your own minds up about the import of all this. However, for mine the reality is as follows:
The 5.1% Coalition to Labor swing was largely from voters who didn’t matter: they lived in the wrong seats. Not only was that swing outweighed by the swing from the 2016 “others” column to the coalition (either directly on primaries but also on preferences) but those “others” clearly lived in the right seats to make a difference in the outcome.
For the voters who mattered, economic management and taxation were wot mattered. They kicked the environment, even health and education into the long grass. Labour needs to frame its overall message with those factoids at the forefront of its strategy.
Confessions says : Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:04 am
phoenixRed:
I just love Rick’s turn of phrase!
**********************************************************
Me too Confessions – he ALWAYS has something intelligent to say – but always in a sharp and witty collage of graphic descriptive words that totally lays bare the *target* of his latest particular writing ……
Hey WB, Greg Jericho is online.
Says he wants his charts back!
Great work and once again thanks BK for the essential reading that is Dawn Patrol 😉
AE
There you go again. Saying Labor must cave because it was not effective in messaging.
The fact you ignore trust is the number one issue says a lot.
Barney:
Unfortunately twitter is chock full of Agent 86s.
Vindicated James Comey wants Attorney General Bill Barr to apologize to the FBI and admit he lied
Former FBI Director James Comey took a victory lap after the Inspector General’s report that vindicated neither he nor the FBI “committed treason,” as was claimed by President Donald Trump.
“Two years of sitting silently at the FBI while you’re lied about and finally the truth is out. It was lies and the FBI finally has its day with the American people and I hope they pay attention,” said Comey.
Comey also took aim at Attorney General Bill Barr, saying that not only did he make false statements about the FBI, but that he’s continuing to make false statements about the investigations and subsequent report.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/vindicated-james-comey-wants-attorney-general-bill-barr-to-apologize-to-the-fbi-and-admit-he-lied/
“ Get some spine.”
Pony, labor needs to create its own narrative and not be captive to Green tropes.
Working Nation 2.0
Paid (and guaranteed) work for the dole
Middle income tax relief
A radical incomes policy
RI
“You absolutely despise Labor.”
If I accused you of despising the Greens, something I would never do, you would be frothing at the mouth.
Own your own emotions. You have no idea what mine are.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:12 am
RI
As if the Greens would put Labor next to last. If Labor puts the Greens next to last it will bleed votes.
The harbinger of we are all fucked.
As indeed we are.
Fox News canceled on James Comey after IG report vindicated the FBI: ‘They must have read the report’
Former FBI Director James Comey said Fox News canceled a scheduled interview after a report by the Department of Justice Inspector General vindicated the investigation into President Donald Trump.
“I offered to go on Fox & Friends to answer all questions,” Comey tweeted on Monday.
“I can’t change their viewers on Donald Trump but hoped to give them some actual facts about the FBI,” he explained.
“They booked me for tomorrow at 8 am. They just cancelled (sic). Must have read the report,” he suggested.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/fox-news-cancelled-on-james-comey-after-ig-report-vindicated-the-fbi-they-must-have-read-the-report/
“ AE
There you go again. Saying Labor must cave because it was not effective in messaging.
The fact you ignore trust is the number one issue says a lot.”
I think you have perhaps the worst comprehension skills I’ve ever come across in my life.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #86 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 9:27 am
“Factoid: an item of unreliable information that is reported and repeated so often that it becomes accepted as fact.”
So you are saying that in future Labor should frame its messages and base its strategy on unreliable information?
I thought they tried that already … and look what happened 🙁
Peg… the contempt shown for Labor by the Greens speaks for itself. The Greens detest Labor. We get it.
Newcastle.
Currently 29℃ – Projected top 36℃
Wind NE 24 KPH.
Heavy smoke smell.