First up, note that you can find Adrian Beaumont’s latest British election post immediately below this one, and that The Guardian has preliminary details of what will presumably be the last Essential Research poll for the year, which I will blog about this evening when the full report is available (suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).
Now on to some further observations from the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, at which I took a preliminary look at the tail end of the previous post. Over the fold at the bottom of this post you can find a Sankey diagram showing how respondents’ vote choices in 2016 and 2019 compared, based on the slightly contingency of their recollections of what they did three years ago.
These suggest the Coalition actually lost a sizeable chunk of voters to Labor – 5.1% of the total, compared with only 1.6% going the other way. I might take a closer look at the survey responses for that 5.1% one day, but presumably they were the kind of Malcolm Turnbull-supporting voter who drove the swing to Labor in affluent inner urban areas. The key point is that the Coalition was able to make good this loss out of those who were in the “others” camp (i.e. everyone but the Coalition, Labor and the Greens) in 2016 – both directly, in that fully 30% of “others” from 2016 voted Coalition this time (or 4.1% of voters overall, compared with 1.6% who went from others to Labor), and indirectly, in that their preference share from what remained went from 50.8% to 56.3%.
Before that, some other general observations based on my reading of the ANU’s overview of its findings:
• The survey adds context for some intuitively obvious points: that the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.
• Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.
• A drop in support for Labor among women caused the gender gap to moderate compared with 2016, although the unchanged 10% gap on the Liberal vote remains remarkable by recent historic standards. The new normal of Liberal doing better among men and Labor among women only really goes back to 2010 – back in the Keating era, it was Labor who had the women problem.
• Scott Morrison trounced Bill Shorten on popularity, their respective mean ratings on a zero-to-ten scale being 5.14 and 3.97.
• The number of respondents professing no party identity reached a new peak of 21%, maintaining a trend going back to 2010.
• The 2018 leadership coup was received as badly as the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd. The 2013 and 2015 coups were less badly received, but both scored over 50% disapproval.
• Long-term trends show a steady erosion in trust in government, satisfaction with democracy and belief government is run for “all the people”, although the 2019 results weren’t particularly worse than 2016. Satisfaction with democracy is poor compared to the countries with which Australia is normally compared – though slightly higher than the United Kingdom, which is presumably one symptom among many of Brexit.
Based on weighted results from the AES survey, this shows how votes moved between the parties at the 2016 election (on the left) and the 2019 election (on the right). Roll your mouse pointer over it to see the percentage figures.
My bet is that it is yellow, runny and high.
Morrison’s mate Houston makes it to the White House with a bunch of US religious leaders.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/10/brian-houston-prays-for-trump-during-official-visit-to-white-house
Possibly hard as a nut and refusing to budge despite much heaving.
“Firefox
My suggestion is that you go an find somebody to change your political nappy.”
***
My suggestion to you is that you get real, stop spending every minute of every day of your life trolling people on this website, and go see whats going on around you. NSW is on fire. It’s fucked mate. Really it is. Senator Faruqi is right to use strong language at a time like this. Sorry if that’s too real for you and you’d prefer politicians stuck to the script.
“Morrison pere is helping his poor daughter who is prone to asthma.”
Yeah well he can bloody well pay for it himself, like anyone else in Sydney who doesn’t want to be here. I bet he isn’t. No quarter. A Labor PM would be attacked in tomorrow’s Daily Rupert for this sort of thing.
spr
LOL
Morrison is all smoke and mirrors.
Boerwar @ #556 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 8:24 pm
Labor is all smoke and miners.
Firefox
Time for you to go and get Maureen to read you a bedtime fable about Zero/2030 and how the Greens saved the world.
The sandman awaits you with wonderful dreams of a future in which the missing 90% of the population suddenly take the Greens as seriously as they take themselves.
Sleep tight!
P1
I do hope that no-one uses metals to get to your ecosystem resort. Nasty stuff dug up by nasty miners!
What have the Greens ever done for ecosystem services?
So true. At least someone is real enough to call it like it is. Senator Faruqi is expressing the frustrations of so many of her constituents right now.
Katharine Murphy is such a charlatan.
Now we need to be very clear here … Ultimately, we get the politics we deserve.
The obfuscation, the false comfort, the changing of the subject, the head-patting, will keep happening as long as we let it.
It will keep happening as long as soft and hard denialism is enabled in mainstream media outlets…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/australia-is-burning-like-a-tinderbox-and-the-coalition-wont-acknowledge-voters-rising-fears
One of the greatest gigglers, smirkers and lightweight policy-free scribblers masquerading as part of the Political Class in the Australian media universe, constantly telling us how important – nay dominant – is “The Politics” of any given situation, now blames “mainstream media outlets” for Scott Morrison.
“Media? Which media?” I hear you ask.
“Oh, THAT media over there,” Murphy earnestly informs us.
The price for praising Graham Richardson should be the accumulation of a little bit of vomit in the mouth.
P1,
See the thing is, a grand achievement for Labor would be winning government and actually taking real action on climate change.
Such fancies have never troubled the Greens. For them, an achievement is carping on Twitter, moving a meaningless motion in the Senate, jumping on Audi convoy to spit on some yokel Queenslanders, taking full credit for anything Labor does that they might like and otherwise revelling in their own impotent purity.
I am honestly surprised by the Greens’ utter failure to recognise the basic fact that to get anything, literally any one thing, done you need to be in government. The Greens do so love to tell use what they “will do,” yet remain completely verklempt about what it might take to do anything at all. Or perhaps they are all of the mold of Jim Casey, preferring Liberal governments so they can run bigger and better protest marches.
One of the 24 responses to Faruqi is mine. It was simple, but true.
‘The Greens are impotent’
3z
The Greens have not done a Lib Democrat and said their leader is going to be Prime Minister.
Cheers Boerwar and D&M
“ The price for praising Graham Richardson should be the accumulation of a little bit of vomit in the mouth”
I’ll pay that. Is this an original?
Matt Kean, a NSW Liberal Minister, is about to get the full Murdoch/Hadley/Jones bucket of shit tipped on his Warmist head…..
By Alexandra Smith and David Crowe
December 10, 2019 —
NSW Environment Minister Matt Kean says “no one can deny” that climate change is to blame for the smoke haze choking Sydney as bushfires burn across NSW.
In the state government’s strongest comments yet on the link between climate change and bushfires, Mr Kean said: “This is not normal and doing nothing is not a solution”.
Mr Kean, who spoke at the Smart Energy Summit in Sydney on Tuesday as smoke blanketed the city, said the weather conditions were “exactly what the scientists have warned us would happen”.
“Longer drier periods, resulting in more drought and bushfire,” Mr Kean said. “If this is not a catalyst for change, then I don’t know what is.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/this-is-not-normal-minister-urges-action-on-climate-change-20191210-p53ip1.html
“I am honestly surprised by the Greens’ utter failure to recognise the basic fact that to get anything, literally any one thing, done you need to be in government. ”
***
Shane RATTENBURY
ACT Greens, Kurrajong electorate
MINISTERIAL APPOINTMENTS
Current
Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability (October 2016–present)
Minister for Corrections and Justice Health (November 2012–present)
Minister for Justice, Consumer Affairs and Road Safety (November 2012–present)
Minister for Mental Health (October 2016–present)
Previous
Minister for Education (January 2016–October 2016)
Minister for Road Safety (January 2016–October 2016)
Minister assisting the Chief Minister on Transport Reform (January 2015–January 2016)
Minister for Sport and Recreation (July 2014–January 2016)
Minister for Territory and Municipal Services (November 2012–January 2016)
Minister for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs (November 2012–January 2015)
Minister for Housing (November 2012 –July 2014)
Minister for Ageing (November 2012 –July 2014)
https://www.parliament.act.gov.au/members/ninth-assembly-members/kurrajong/rattenbury-shane
I could have gone straight to the 2010 Greens/Gillard/Ind gov but that would have been too easy. Or any of the other Tas or ACT govs that the Greens have been in. I could have also explained to you how the Federal Senate works but frankly I can’t be bothered wasting my time on someone who clearly has no clue what they’re talking about.
I still can’t believe that Morrison has shipped his family from the luxurious Kirribilli House to Perth, to avoid the smoke blanketing Sydney.
Don’t they want to stay with ‘their people’? Don’t they have air conditioning? Does Morrison know it is going to get fucking dreadful? He did say he knew everything about the fires and their impact.
Here is the common enemy. This guy leads the team that is determined to do nothing about global heating. This guy is in the pocket of fossil fuels. This guy wants to wind back worker rights, privatise the delivery of health, education and welfare services, abolish unemployment benefits and wind back other social security, at the earliest political opportunity his team will break up and sell Medicare and the ABC:
Maybe Labor and/or Greens aren’t perfect. But to get anything done, prevent further damage and preserve what has been won over two centuries, the team he leads (for the time being at least) has to be ousted.
I took my family out of Sydney for a few days this week, because I could. My wife also sent the help* to a big box shop to get an air purifier, because we could. We are also lucky to live in a house that is well sealed. And we are permanently moving out of Sydney in January, and happy to do so, in part because of the pollution.
But we are lucky.
And neither me nor my wife are PM.
* me
Tomorrow…
Speaking of little bits of vomit in one’s mouth, this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/10/brian-houston-prays-for-trump-during-official-visit-to-white-house
Can I order a Double Decker Karma bus please fmd
Firefox
Morrison must have seen the tweets.
He is gone. All the way to Perth.
Nero went to Perth?
Can’t be true, Prue.
Curbing Rising Racism: An Interview With Greens Senator Dr Mehreen Faruqi
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/curbing-rising-racism-an-interview-with-greens-senator-dr-mehreen-faruqi/
She has made the news overseas, for example:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6085035/Australias-Muslim-senator-Mehreen-Faruqi-says-people-affronted-shes-parliament.html
Wait. What? Scotty has shipped his family to the other side of the country so they don’t have to live with smoke-filled air?
Matt Kean isn’t the worst of the NSW Libs.
He’s actually done some good work behind the scenes regarding energy policy. However I feel he’s hamstrung in what he can achieve.
Mr Kean, who spoke at the Smart Energy Summit in Sydney on Tuesday as smoke blanketed the city, said the weather conditions were “exactly what the scientists have warned us would happen”.
If Mr Kean believes that, why is he a member of the “Liberal” Party?
Maude Lynne
More importantly is that such high levels of pollution will mean an increase in deaths. It is killing people ,but hey let us not mention that eh journos.
So much material to riff off here but….
“ If Mr Kean believes that, why is he a member of the “Liberal” Party?”
Its all about the Benjamins.
Mehreen Faruqi has more courage and authenticity in her little finger than countless multitudes of her detractors.
ASIC investigating large companies’ climate change risk management
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-10/asic-launches-climate-surveillance-of-big-companies/11786070
WA’s euthanasia laws have now passed parliament.
R u anti Semitic herr Earlwood ? Not very presidential sentiments on ur part Kamerden Earlwood to reference the benjamins. U do know mavis ha s relatives who survived the holocaust ?
As the leader of the party that has led the decade of making global heating worse I hope Morrison gets hit by the Karma Bus big time.
I think he will.
We have months of this to come and setting up a government in exile in Perth will fuel huge anger.
No insult to Perth or Western Australia intended.
Matt Kean is a “Liberal”.
The “Liberals” have no intention of acting on global heating. They are in the pocket of Big Coal. Apart from pretend / token measures and some left-over Labor measures they couldn’t get rid of, they have no plan to do anything even if they wanted to.
Matt Kean = Malcolm Turnbull = Tony Abbott = Eric Abetz = Nick Minchin = Scott Morrison = Peter Dutton.
Not listening.
Confessions
Congratulations to Labor and allies on getting good evidence based policy passed.
It’s good we do still have government with empathy
Ok so before I was distracted by Senator Faruqi’s awesome tweets, I actually went on Twitter to find this….
Boris Johnson has committed a major gaffe on camera. This is the tweet from the reporter who was doing the interview including the video of it. He pockets the journalist’s phone to avoid looking at a photo of a kid on the floor of a hospital because there were no spare beds. Watch it. It’s all over the UK’s news this morning. The video is going viral.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736?s=19
[‘The head of Australia’s royal commission into child sex abuse has condemned Catholic church leaders for failing to recognise the sexual assault of children as a crime.
Speaking publicly about the royal commission for the first time, Justice Peter McClellan said on Tuesday that commissioners had heard from many leaders of the Catholic church, some of whom argued sexual abuse was a “moral failure” rather than a criminal act.
Commissioner seeks to guarantee compensation: Justice Peter McClellan.
Commissioner seeks to guarantee compensation: Justice Peter McClellan. CREDIT:JEREMY PIPER
“I cannot comprehend how any person, much less one with qualifications in theology … could consider the rape of a child to be a moral failure but not a crime,” Justice McClellan said in a speech to the Australian Human Rights Commission. “This statement by leaders of the Catholic Church marks out the corruption within the Church both within Australia, and it seems from reports, in many other parts of the world.”]
McClellan, J is of course right. Fancy the upper echelons of the Catholic Church claiming that the rape of a minor is a mere moral failure – it just beggars belief:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-cannot-comprehend-sex-abuse-royal-commissioner-slams-catholic-leaders-20191210-p53inr.html
Boerwar @ #522 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 7:28 pm
Such as the African Australian lady on The Drum tonight pointed out, such that the Bill will allow someone at an office Christmas party to call someone like her a ‘Nig*er’ and it’s all going to become perfectly legal because no ‘violence’ towards her is involved.
The fact that it might make her go home and do something harmful to herself as a result, is neither here nor there to the drafters and promoters of the Bill, ie the Morrison government.
I don’t think anyone’s mentioned this threads title yet. WB would have made a pretty good Murdoch sub-editor!
Bit slow on that one, nath
Firefox
Gaffe ? ‘Twas robbery…….. a mugging ? 🙂