Hands off Sankey

A visual representation of how votes flowed between the parties at the 2016 and 2019 elections, plus other observations from the Australian National University’s post-election survey.

First up, note that you can find Adrian Beaumont’s latest British election post immediately below this one, and that The Guardian has preliminary details of what will presumably be the last Essential Research poll for the year, which I will blog about this evening when the full report is available (suffice to say for now that it still doesn’t feature voting intention numbers).

Now on to some further observations from the Australian National University’s post-election Australian Election Study survey, at which I took a preliminary look at the tail end of the previous post. Over the fold at the bottom of this post you can find a Sankey diagram showing how respondents’ vote choices in 2016 and 2019 compared, based on the slightly contingency of their recollections of what they did three years ago.

These suggest the Coalition actually lost a sizeable chunk of voters to Labor – 5.1% of the total, compared with only 1.6% going the other way. I might take a closer look at the survey responses for that 5.1% one day, but presumably they were the kind of Malcolm Turnbull-supporting voter who drove the swing to Labor in affluent inner urban areas. The key point is that the Coalition was able to make good this loss out of those who were in the “others” camp (i.e. everyone but the Coalition, Labor and the Greens) in 2016 – both directly, in that fully 30% of “others” from 2016 voted Coalition this time (or 4.1% of voters overall, compared with 1.6% who went from others to Labor), and indirectly, in that their preference share from what remained went from 50.8% to 56.3%.

Before that, some other general observations based on my reading of the ANU’s overview of its findings:

• The survey adds context for some intuitively obvious points: that the Coalition won because self-identified swinging voters rated them better to handle the economy, taxation and leadership, and rated those issues the most determinants of their vote choice. Labor’s strengths were, as ever, health and environment, which rated lower on the importance scale, and education, which hardly featured.

• Coalition and Labor voters weren’t vastly in their opinions on negative gearing and franking credits, with support and opposition being fairly evenly divided for both. However, there were enormously divided on their sense of the importance of global warming, which was rated extremely important by 64% of Labor voters but only 22% of Coalition voters.

• A drop in support for Labor among women caused the gender gap to moderate compared with 2016, although the unchanged 10% gap on the Liberal vote remains remarkable by recent historic standards. The new normal of Liberal doing better among men and Labor among women only really goes back to 2010 – back in the Keating era, it was Labor who had the women problem.

• Scott Morrison trounced Bill Shorten on popularity, their respective mean ratings on a zero-to-ten scale being 5.14 and 3.97.

• The number of respondents professing no party identity reached a new peak of 21%, maintaining a trend going back to 2010.

• The 2018 leadership coup was received as badly as the 2010 coup against Kevin Rudd. The 2013 and 2015 coups were less badly received, but both scored over 50% disapproval.

• Long-term trends show a steady erosion in trust in government, satisfaction with democracy and belief government is run for “all the people”, although the 2019 results weren’t particularly worse than 2016. Satisfaction with democracy is poor compared to the countries with which Australia is normally compared – though slightly higher than the United Kingdom, which is presumably one symptom among many of Brexit.

Based on weighted results from the AES survey, this shows how votes moved between the parties at the 2016 election (on the left) and the 2019 election (on the right). Roll your mouse pointer over it to see the percentage figures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

702 comments on “Hands off Sankey”

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  1. PASOKification is a thing, even though this is the first time that I’ve heard that particular word. Once dominant Social Democrat / Socialist parties in the Democratic world now linger in the 10s and 20s in the polls. Think Germany, France, Greece. Also Labour in Israel. Maybe also Britain – we’ll see soon.

  2. Bellwether @ #498 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #487 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 6:38 pm

    Sydney is so uninteresting these days.

    Sydney so far not news in melb on 7. kicked off with white island followed by youth violence now onto jetstar delays lawyer X on now..bali cocaine russia WADA, v-line train strike,commadore axed, and there’s the first ad break … sorry Sydney.

    Where is it you say you are reporting from?

    In Melbourne, we live the Hollies experience, “All we need is the air that we breathe, just to love it”.

    Blue skies, 20 degrees, zephyr of a breeze.

    Just a touch of Paradise.

  3. Pegasus @ #475 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 6:11 pm

    The young are on the move…activism on the rise

    Gen Z daters would rather march than match:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gen-z-daters-would-rather-march-than-match-g8jjff96p

    When Tinder first emerged in 2012, a key way to woo a potential date was to show a thirst for adventure and exotic holidays. For today’s generation, however, caring about the environment is far sexier than your latest holiday snaps.

    A report by Tinder looking back over trends from its users in the past year has revealed that Generation Z — those aged from 18 to 24 years old — prefer their dates to have a passion for climate change over knowing the best beach in Thailand.

    Nothing quite like the likely truncation of human existence to remove the urge to procreate.

  4. Steve777 @ #499 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 6:58 pm

    PASOKification is a thing, even though this is the first time that I’ve heard that particular word. Once dominant Social Democrat / Socialist parties in the Democratic world now linger in the 10s and 20s in the polls. Think Germany, France, Greece. Also Labour in Israel. Maybe also Britain – we’ll see soon.

    What colour is it.? Can you eat it with fries?

  5. Complaint about fake how-to-vote cards preferencing Peter Dutton rejected

    Australian Electoral Commission dismisses Greens’ candidate’s protest saying the fakes in Dickson did not mislead voters

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/complaint-about-fake-how-to-vote-cards-preferencing-peter-dutton-rejected

    The Australian Electoral Commission rejected a complaint about fake how-to-vote cards for independent and minor parties that directed preferences to Peter Dutton because they informed voters how to cast their first preference vote correctly.
    :::
    The AEC also sought to share responsibility for the issue with the police, which it said had twice chosen not to investigate similar complaints of unauthorised how-to-vote cards siphoning second preferences to non-preferred candidates.

  6. GG “Sydney so far not news in melb on 7. kicked off with white island followed by youth violence now onto jetstar delays lawyer X on now..bali cocaine russia WADA, v-line train strike,commadore axed, and there’s the first ad break … sorry Sydney.”

    What – no “African Gangs?” Are they being rested until the next election? (2022 both State and Federal).

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #500 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    Bellwether @ #498 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #487 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 6:38 pm

    Sydney is so uninteresting these days.

    Sydney so far not news in melb on 7. kicked off with white island followed by youth violence now onto jetstar delays lawyer X on now..bali cocaine russia WADA, v-line train strike,commadore axed, and there’s the first ad break … sorry Sydney.

    Where is it you say you are reporting from?

    In Melbourne, we live the Hollies experience, “All we need is the air that we breathe, just to love it”.

    Blue skies, 20 degrees, zephyr of a breeze.

    Just a touch of Paradise.

    When I was a small kid my Mum took me to Chessington Zoo, south of London. It just happened that the Hollies were there being filmed miming a track with a couple of bookend elephants. Maybe one of them wasn’t a Hollies fan and he broke away from his handler and stampeded around this rectangular lake. I picked up that Mum was getting anxious and we bolted down a pathway too narrow for an elephant. Apart from that I’ve had a pretty quiet life.
    https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/news-photo/manchester-pop-group-the-hollies-pictured-performing-at-news-photo/599390434

  8. The bush turkeys are on the march from the North Shore into the rest of Sydney and points South. Apparently they are having their wicked way with backyard chooks as they go. No chooks here so they dig upthe garden and build mounds.

  9. ‘I cannot comprehend’: Sex abuse royal commissioner slams Catholic leaders

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/i-cannot-comprehend-sex-abuse-royal-commissioner-slams-catholic-leaders-20191210-p53inr.html

    The head of Australia’s royal commission into child sex abuse has condemned Catholic church leaders for failing to recognise the sexual assault of children as a crime.

    Speaking publicly about the royal commission for the first time, Justice Peter McClellan said on Tuesday that commissioners had heard from many leaders of the Catholic church, some of whom argued sexual abuse was a “moral failure” rather than a criminal act.

    “I cannot comprehend how any person, much less one with qualifications in theology … could consider the rape of a child to be a moral failure but not a crime,” Justice McClellan said in a speech to the Australian Human Rights Commission. “This statement by leaders of the Catholic Church marks out the corruption within the Church both within Australia, and it seems from reports, in many other parts of the world.”
    :::
    Justice McClellan said that for many years the prevailing wisdom of judges, whom he said “were all men”, was that sexual assault victims could only be believed if they complained immediately. It was now understood that survivors, especially children, may not complain about the assault for years, sometimes decades after the event, he said.

  10. Steve777,

    I wonder how they will go south of the Harbour.

    The Sydney Bin Chickens rule the roost here (so to speak).

    Friends in Pennant Hills certainly have had them for quite a few years.

    Can anyone tell me if Bush Turkeys or Ibis taste any good? Youngster asking the other day.

  11. Yesterday a 78 yo widow confided to me about her sexual assault when she was 20. I was the first person she had shared this with.

    Yesterday, she was struggling with the memories of the assault.

  12. Bush Turkeys were eaten out of peri-urban areas during the Depression.
    Adult Ibis are edible but you would want to be hungry.
    I have heard first hand reports from people who have eaten them that Ibis squabs (?) are oily and good to eat.

  13. Steve777 @ #507 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 7:08 pm

    GG “Sydney so far not news in melb on 7. kicked off with white island followed by youth violence now onto jetstar delays lawyer X on now..bali cocaine russia WADA, v-line train strike,commadore axed, and there’s the first ad break … sorry Sydney.”

    What – no “African Gangs?” Are they being rested until the next election? (2022 both State and Federal).

    The Libs did their post mortem on that gem of a tactic after Andrews thrashed a dispirited Liberal party at the last State Election.

    Apparently, people like immigrants aren’t afraid to go out at night and the only fear they had was that Dutton, Morrison and Matt Guy might be at the same crowded restaurant.

    Voters saw it for the horseshit it was.

  14. I am seeing a lot of deafness on display over Albo’s position on coal and climate change. He was clear on QandA when he pointed out the need to increase use in renewables which is the biggest way to cut Australia’s emissions yet people are talking as if Albo said there was no need for a climate policy.

  15. ScuMo’s religious right to discriminate bill has hairs all over it. Those twits couldn’t put piss up legislation into effect in a brewery, let alone plot a course for doG botherers through the myriad of laws protecting workers & consumer rights. If it gets up these idiots should be made to pay for every related court case into the future.

  16. mh
    The week before the sitting weeks end they announce that it is being withdrawn
    The week after the sitting week ends, they announce a new draft Bill.
    It looks a bit like they are hoping that no-one will notice that it has been redrafted to make legal all sorts of discrimination.

  17. Boerwar @ #522 Tuesday, December 10th, 2019 – 7:28 pm

    mh
    The week before the sitting weeks end they announce that it is being withdrawn
    The week after the sitting week ends, they announce a new draft Bill.
    It looks a bit like they are hoping that no-one will notice that it has been redrafted to make legal all sorts of discrimination.

    They had over 6000 responses to the draft Legislation which gave them an inkling that people were not happy with what was being proposed.

  18. Thanks Boerwar.

    I think “squabs” is probably correct. I know Pigeon is called “squab” when on the menu – (because they are young pigeons?). Son who is former Chef (now in Finance like most of the rest of his siblings) ate it as part of his culinary training.

    Poor Sydney people ate pigeon up until at least the 1960s in Sydney.

    And I was amazed at the number of rabbits living at Redfern oval when the old structure was bulldozed. Not sure if there were unofficial rabbitohs still selling, or if it was “self-service”.

    A good friend of mine edited a book called Great Australian Rabbit Stories. Links below. Rabbits kept families alive during the Depression.

    At the launch, all the canapés were rabbit based. I went hungry. I had a bad experience when my father and uncle shot a rabbit and my mother and aunt roasted it. It was horrible! apparently they broke some gland when “dressing” the rabbit, but I cannot touch the stuff. the other guests said the rabbit canapés were delicious.

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23364144-great-australian-rabbit-stories

    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/overnights/great-australian-rabbit-stories/7737702

  19. D&M
    You could reculture yourself and learn to like lapin.
    If you intend to do this, do NOT observe the traditional peasant way of exsanguinating a lapin.

  20. When does Ms Faruqi intend growing up?

    She is not some pothead pimply youth posting irresponsibly on social media.
    She needs some gravitas.
    And some real ideas on how to sell Zero/2030 after her dismal failure so to do in the 2019 FedPoll.

  21. Peg,

    Yesterday a 78 yo widow confided to me about her sexual assault when she was 20. I was the first person she had shared this with.

    Yesterday, she was struggling with the memories of the assault.

    I am really glad she has you to talk to. Horrible things happened regularly back then, and the sense of shame in the victims has lasted for ever.

    The nuns who educated me gave me my strong sense of social justice, and made me believe I could be anything I wanted to be. I still follow the US nuns on twitter – they are one of the strongest anti-death penalty groups there, understanding that the death penalty in the US is a class and race penalty.

    However, the priests I came across were a mixed bag. More than a few were downright creepy. I still cannot set foot in a church unless it is for a wedding, christening or funeral. And if the church is Pentecostal, I just send my apologies. This is despite some religious groups near me, especially the Uniting Church, being very worthy people. And St Vincent DePaul in Redfern, under Father Ted Kennedy, was positively revolutionary. but that was some time ago …

  22. Good find, GG

    “The PM’s wife also admitted to a Labor MP they moved to Perth because the Sydney smoke was triggering one of the daughter’s asthma,” says Albenese.

    Scott Morrison denies the claims, releasing a statement a short time ago saying:

    “My family have been keen to visit Perth for a while now.”

    Once again, it’s not just the act, it’s also the attempt to deny reality.
    Morrison is going to regret doing this. His neighbours around Kirribilli and the North Shore will not forget

    https://doublebaytoday.com/pm-accused-of-moving-his-family-out-of-kirribilli-house-to-avoid-the-smoke-haze/

  23. Tristo

    The Victorian Socialists are just the SAlties by another name. I don’t hold much hope for their longevity now that they’ve (finally) booted Stephen Jolly for the allegations of appallong criminal behaviour made against him. And now they’ll be hopelessly split.

    Also, the conduct of the VicSol volunteers at polling booths was, by far, the worst I have ever seen. They would corner older people, paricularly older people from non English speaking backgrounds and block their way to the booth, angrily carping at them until their mark took the HTV. The AEC booth manager had to be called in many, many times.

  24. At times like this Labor runs and hides. Well not Senator Faruqi!

    I for one heartily agree with her. Morrison should definitely fuck off.

  25. Oh, I understand perfectly why Morrison would cut and run.
    The AQI for PM 10 and PM2.5 particles across Sydney has been Hazardous for most of the day.
    Hazardous, btw, is the highest reading possible.
    A reading of 200 is Hazardous
    Most of Sydney has been double that for much of the day.

    In other words, breathe it at your own risk. You may end up in hospital if you have a lung complaint

    https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/air-quality/current-air-quality

  26. Firefox that’s not really dealing with my question..

    The Greens have made a number of mistakes as pointed out in my post. It will be ok to simply accept that and move on.

    You see there is a difference between principle and execution. Between knowing what is right and knowing how to get something done in the real world.

    Its a matter of maturity

  27. Welcome to 2019, Boer. Time to call it like it is and not mince words. Morrison’s handling of the fires has been disgraceful. It’s great that a senator representing NSW has said what so many of us in the state are thinking right now.

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