BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.
As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.
I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.
Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.
sonar most people tend to grossly underestimate the fixed costs of running cars when they make decisions about whether to take the car or public transport. Its a well known issue.
What I’m trying to do is to make public transport a “no-brainer” decision for many more people – hence my interest in fast and high speed rail. You can’t compete with many car trips – especially the “local” trips. But you can compete strongly with car tips across the Sydney basin (my niece for example drives from Miranda to Penrith) and you can compete overwhelmingly with car travel over inter-city trips (Gosford, Newcastle, Wollongong to various parts of Sydney).
And yeah I define “non-local” as any trip which if taken by car would involve traversal of 10 km or more of arterial or motorway standard road. This is relevant since this is the kind of travel that generates the most spending on road pavement. Genuine local trips are much less of an issue so I’m actually less fussed about local shopping.
I don’t object to paying fire fighters but it shouldn’t be on an hourly bases.
Another problem with getting people out of their cars is “sunk costs”. You’ve paid, say, $40,000 for a car – obviously amounts differ. In any case, it’s worth maybe a quarter of its new value after 5 years and essentially nothing after 10. Then it comes with fixed costs of several thousand dollars per annum – rego, insurance, servicing, etc. So, say equivalent to about $6,000-7000 per annum if you just leave it in the garage. You could get a used car and do servicing yourself like my father did, but that’s much harder with modern cars and requires a lot of time and skill.
So are you going to leave the car in the garage and use public transport?
Not bothering with a car in the first place and always using public transport would be cheaper, but if you already have a car?
Steve its an issue but surprisingly most people don’t actually factor in fixed costs. They regard having a car as an essential part of living and the decision whether to use it boils down more to time and quality of experience rather than running costs/fares.
I have a friend in Brisbane who is a corporate accountant. He has a nice car (not sure.. $30K+) and really only uses it for local shopping and very occasional use (transport of goods). He claims it makes sense (and yes he’s the kind of guy who eats about-to-expire food).
While some Greens policy plans to ban lots of rural and regional activities are clear, other plans are, at best, devious. Take the following, which quotes direct from the Australian Greens website:
‘An end to inhumane farming practices that are inconsistent with animals’ natural behavioural needs…’
What does ‘natural behavioural needs’ actually mean?
The first thing is that the Greens here have enacted their customary binary. Inner urb us of animals is ignored. For example, it is arguable that a guide or companion dog are not meeting its natural behavioural needs. Typically they have been speyed. Typically they have also been ‘trained’ to prevent them from behaving at all naturally. They are trained to ignore other dogs, for example.
As for dogs so for all living things on farms. The whole purpose of farming (as opposed to hunting and gathering) is to alter the context so that farm animals, broadly defined, are prevented from meeting their behavioural needs.
There is a kicker here that the Greens have not quite worked through. The natural behavioural needs of all feral animals, whether they are destroying farm profitability or whether they are wrecking the environment, amounts to wrecking the joint.
Finally, the Greens have yet to turn their minds to other issues such as mice, rats and reptiles being buried alive during ploughing. But even vegans have to eat.
Meanwhile those peasant farming systems that depend on draught animals which wish to export food to Australia had better not think they are going to get away with making mules, horses, donkey, camels and buffalo doing farm work. It all equates to not meeting the natural behavioural needs of the draught animals. And there is a specific line in the Greens policies which says that we will only import food that meet Australian standards of production.
What the Greens have also avoided saying is that all this will put food prices through the roof. But, if you are a wealthy Inner Urbs virtue signaller, that is a small price to pay.
Cud Chewer @ 1.05 pm.
I reckon that’s a photo of Michaelia Cash in full screaming fit.
I have read that dogs altered their ‘natural’ behaviour of their own volition so as to appeal to humans. It made sense to the dogs to have a warm cave to sleep in and the leftovers and bones from the food that the humans had eaten, as opposed to catching and killing it themselves.
And the humans started the time-honoured tradition of having a warm dog sleep with them to help keep them warm during cold winter nights. 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:If_you_lie_down_with_dogs,_you_get_up_with_fleas
Cud Chewer
Re cost of car v cost of public transport.People also value their time. So yeah a car is usually more expensive but screw adding an extra hour, or more, to your daily commute time. When you need to transfer and catch connecting services then time on public transport soon blows out.
C Ch
Haha.
zoomster
says:
Not condoning any of the actions described, but the language is hyperbolic, to say the least.
Corruption in one of Victoria’s 79 councils, involving – it would appear – one main player and two councillors scarcely makes Victoria Colombia – or even NSW.
________________________________
Conveniently ignoring the 160k in donations to Vic ALP and the claims that it was ‘intimated’ that these donations would see planning interventions or approvals.
C@tmomma @ #207 Saturday, November 30th, 2019 – 5:50 pm
A really good article in the New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/22/science/dogs-love-evolution.html
Two thousand word article. Great photos and research info.
Rain in Newcastle only lasted for about five minutes. Damned magnetic structure of the sun. Maybe more rain later. 🤞
Cud, I don’t discredit or disagree with you re car costs or public transport but time is also a factor and how do you cost that.?
I have tried public transport but being caught out when the public system fails…late/cancelled trains/buses etc on more than one occasion persuaded me that my car for the time being is the best option.
C@
Yes – ‘animal liberation’ types often ignore the fact that many animals choose to be with humans, for whatever reasons.
South East Asian Games might get whacked by a typhoon:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-29/philippines-braces-for-storm-that-may-drench-sea-games-hosting
In October and November last year senior Labor figures repeatedly assured The Age and Sunday Age that Mr Woodman and his companies had not donated to Labor for many years. This was untrue.
In addition to pouring funds into the local campaign accounts of Labor candidates Mr Woodman was a platinum member of the party’s fund-raising arm, Progressive Business.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/woodman-company-with-planning-minister-wynne-at-labor-fundraiser-20191129-p53fik.html
I wonder if Lobster was on the menu:
The Ferrari-driving property developer at the centre of an explosive anti-corruption inquiry has been seen dining at a top Chinese restaurant in Melbourne with Premier Daniel Andrews on at least two occasions,
Herald Sun
A Platypus kills a Rakali:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-11-30/platypus-rakali-fight-controversy/11746172
nath
I can see the headline “Daniel in the
Lion’sLobster Den”Ever thought it strange that not one major University campus in Melbourne is served by a train station? #planningisimportant
Nath
Swinburne is and I think Monash has a campus near a trainline
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 6:45 pm
Nath
Swinburne is and I think Monash has a campus near a trainline
___________________________________
Swinburne is not ‘major’ and yes Monash Caulfield is near a trainline but it’s not a large campus. Pretty pathetic for a major city.
Steve, ‘You could get a used car and do servicing yourself like my father did, but that’s much harder with modern cars and requires a lot of time and skill.’
Actually, I would argue modern cars are easier to service than the older cars. No grease required. No tuning required. Just change the oil change and replace the oil filter.
Nath
Swinburne might not be a sandstone university but it punches above its weight.
P1
I read your report, interesting read.
Unfortunately the section on Adani discredits the rest , but the rest deserves to be followed up.
The Adani royalty agreement has not been signed as the report claims.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/deadline-looms-for-adani-s-royalty-deal-with-government-20191127-p53er2.html
It will be interesting to see what next week brings. Could be the end of the pantomime, the Greens will be so disappointed.
To claim Australian production of coal is going to go up by 44% in the next 20 years, to 750 Mt/year is heroic. I wonder if this in the budget papers. If it is, the forward estimates for the budget are rubbish.
No way that is going to happen. Obviously the Greens policy position is not considered significant; poor greens the irrelevant party.
It is claimed in the report the Australian government is investing 1.2 billion in overseas infrastructure projects to support Australian gas and coal exports. Can’t find anything with google. Love to know what that is about if anything.
To contribute all the Geoscience budget to coal is a nonsense.
To contribute all the fuel subsidy mining gets to coal is also a nonsense.
Whole thing is a bit sus I think.
According to the courier mail the Adani pantomime continues:
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/adani-royalties-deal-hit-with-another-delay/news-story/fe81172259f4275d8a5a5d8b736d028d
Adani still not willing to have the loss show up in his accounts.
frednk
This could be what they refer to. Not sure where it is currently at though.
.
.
A major oil and gas company wants Australian taxpayer money spent on overseas energy projects, stoking fears that a Morrison government plan to boost development in the Pacific is a smokescreen for fossil fuel investment.
A government amendment to the operation of its export credit agency, the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation, quietly passed Parliament’s lower house with support from Labor last month. It is now being considered by a Senate committee.
The changes would allow the corporation to make larger investments in overseas infrastructure, targeted to the Pacific region.
Assistant Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment Mark Coulton said the proposal would enable the corporation to fund essential overseas infrastructure such as energy, telecommunications and water projects, where it is commercially viable.
He cited the potential construction of overseas LNG terminals to increase Australian energy exports.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-energy-giant-wants-australia-to-foot-bill-for-fossil-fuel-projects-20190228-p510vf.html
poroti
Thanks that will be it.
Thanks poroti
This is the state of play and it is for the development of PNG natural gas. Difficult to see how that would support Australian gas and coal exports.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/oil-search-lng-expansion-in-peril-as-exxon-rejects-png-s-terms-20191122-p53d5w
I think you have to put at least the Australian portion of the report in the bullshit basket.
It would be interesting to know what the forward estimates in the budget are for coal exports. Is the budget also an exercise in bullshit?
frednk
I did not notice it then and have not heard of it since so as to what is actually happening or happened it is ? for me. I vaguely remember something about a gas facility in E Timor but that may have nothing to do with this. It looks like a good way for places like E Timor to get such facilities will be to say China has made an offer to 🙂
porori
That makes more sense, but I can’t find anything.
PeeBee:
Well spotted!
Actually I have developed a rather peculiar vision problem related to chemo in that I find it very difficult to distinguish double consonants. The anti-angiogenesis targeted agent (VEGF inhibitor) bevacizumab (“Avastin”) is suspected, and interestingly is also used (presumably at lower dose) in ophthalmology for treating age related macular degeneration. I think that in Australia they now prefer a more recent VEGF inhibitor aflibercept for AR MD.
Bevacizumab (“Avastin”) is an interesting drug. Its primary action is to retard the creation of new blood vessels such as might be “summoned” by a tumour that has grown to a size that requires a blood supply (5mm diameter or so). This was hoped to be a game changer (“starve the tumour”) but as is often the case it doesn’t work perfectly (sometimes not at all – in 2012 the FDA withdrew indication for Avastin in breast cancer for example) and over time tumours seem to start using alternative pathways to “summon” the blood supply they need.
Bev also seems to ensure that if vessels are created they are properly built. Somehow vessels summoned to tumours are often “jerry built” so that they leak. In particular they tend to leak many chemotherapeutic agents so that they don’t actually reach the tumour (clever, eh!). Of course they’re still toxic as well as being ineffective. So bev is also an effective adjuvant for chemo.
Most interestingly of all, bev seems to have various pro-immune effects that are under current investigation (Avastin is off patent, so I assume the owner is funding studies to attempt to re-purpose it, or something like that). In particular it may be that bev (and various other VEGF targeted agents) promotes infiltration of certain kinds of immune cells into tumours. One of the problems with checkpoint inhibitors (e.g. “Keytruda”) in about 70% of colorectal cancer (so called CMS2 and CMS3 subtypes) is lack of immune cell infiltration, so if bev can remove this roadblock it could be very significant.
nath:
New railway station in Parkville medical precinct should be close enough to main Melbourne Uni campus. Is that good enough or is this situation somehow the fault of Mr Shorten or perhaps the SDA?
I suspect the reason for the delay in signing the royalty agreement is it is not about royalty free mine, it is you get out of some royalties if you build the infrastructure and make it available to all.
To get his royalty agreement he has to fork out the money for the railway and we know that has moved from a 16 billion option to 1+ billion. And it could well be, sign and you have to commit.
A suspect Adani is happy with the pantomime but is not so happy with throwing good money after bad.
I was more than slightly taken aback tonight at the trailer-park soiree whereupon a contributor made reference to T.S Eliot’s “Little Gidding”:
http://www.columbia.edu/itc/history/winter/w3206/edit/tseliotlittlegidding.html
– a poem for the ages, though he was only in his forties when writing it. Anyway, “Vesti la giubba”!
Monash Caulfield is near a trainline, nice new station.
I’ve walked from the station to discover there are well developed bus terminal at both ends with regular and well used buses.
The very reason I have started using public transport, so I can find these things out before I am no longer allowed to drive and am to senile to take the risk to discover.
nath:
I viewed some two hours of the”The Irishman” this afternoon and agree with your critique of it.
E. G. Theodore
says:
New railway station in Parkville medical precinct should be close enough to main Melbourne Uni campus. Is that good enough or is this situation somehow the fault of Mr Shorten or perhaps the SDA?
_____________________________
No doubt the SDA had a hand in it. They’ve been screwing young people for decades. Making them take longer trips is probably part of the divine plan.
Cheers Mavis. expectation can hurt.
frednk
says:
The very reason I have started using public transport, so I can find these things out before I am no longer allowed to drive and am to senile to take the risk to discover.
__________________________
I think you’ve already missed that bus.
“having a warm dog sleep with them to help keep them warm” I can recommend two black and tan Kelpies ie one each side. IMHO you can’t go past Kelpies, they are so smart and faithful, not at all like most humans.
A truly OMG! aspect of the terrorist stabby guy in London. One of the people who stepped in to subdue the guy used a………………….see if you can guess before reading .
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/hero-bystander-used-1-5-metre-narwhal-tusk-to-help-subdue-london-bridge-knifeman
Trying to find this prediction of magic expansion of Australian coal exports.
Did you know the nominal Australian GDP growth in the budget was forecast to grow 5% 2018/2019. Heroic.
Can’t find the coal figure.
frednk:
If you’re still catching public transport at your age, you’ve missed the boat – as the Lady Penelope Millard, the dowager countess of Dromand, once opined.
Did Maitland get the rain Terminator? 🙂
Unfortunately bugger all sad to say Cat
Terminator @ #246 Saturday, November 30th, 2019 – 8:08 pm
More thoughts and prayers, T? 😀
p
Monty Python’s fish dance updated?
nath:
[‘I think you’ve already missed that bus’]
There’s sure to be another?
Light rain on the Goldie at the moment.