BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.
As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.
I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.
Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.
friendlyjordies on the Ensuring Integrity Bill:
https://youtu.be/Lp_kwX4f2vQ
One of my cows loved to put her head in my lap and doze off for a while. Often she would be dreaming.
After the lobster with the mobster controversy, just imagine if it was a Lib MP having dinner with the corrupt developer.
This place would be going nuts.
Cud Chewer:
[‘One of my cows loved to put her head in my lap and doze off for a while. Often she would be dreaming.’]
Please, then, don’t view “The Irishman” where those two old hasbeens De Niro (76) and Pacino (79) are seen with carcasses, among other grotesque things. The Mob would be happy with their performances.
Mavis.. equally grotesque scene in Predator 2. Mind you, real life is worse.
frednk @ #225 Saturday, November 30th, 2019 – 6:50 pm
I’m sure the UN authors would be interested in your critique of their report. You can contact them at info@productiongap.org
Let us know how you get on.
Can highly recommend Knives Out. Daniel Craig is superb!
Cud Chewer:
[‘Mind you, real life is worse.’]
Never explain, never complain; believing that life’s full of conundrums, so eloquently described by Eliot supra, at an age where one would assume he’d have little knowledge thereof.
Cud Chewer
“ One of my cows loved to put her head in my lap and doze off for a while. Often she would be dreaming.”
———
Cows are wonderful creatures. It has never surprised me that Hindus consider them sacred.
[Good crowd:
[‘33,943 fans turned up for the second day to witness history as David Warner scored 335 not out – the second biggest knock by an Australian.’]
This is a joke. Pakistani bowlers not up to the mark, affording Warner’s performance way above his level of competence.
Thanks swamprat. There’s a reason for my handle here.
My late husband grew up with family cows when he lived in Kenmore in Queensland. He would hand churn butter, as well as have the milk and cream from their Jersey girl. 🙂
I have no experiences with cows nor do I have any immediate ancestors who had relationships with them.
There has never been a need for a station for Melbourne Uni…….back in the day when it was known as “The Shop”, most students lived off campus and commuted by train to Flinders Street and then hopped on the tram up Swanston Street, passed the brewery, and 10 minutes later or so, got off and did the daily grind……………….If you were a poor student – and there were many – you could save yourself 10 cents by actually walking down Swanston Street to the station at the end of the day.
The challenge to drink a beer at every pub between the Uni and Flinders Street without getting smashed was known as the Pass Course. To make it along Flinders and up Elizabeth Street and have a beer up to the other side of the Uni was known as the Honours Course. I am not aware of anyone passing the Honours Course…………………
—————
Can highly recommend Knives Out. Daniel Craig is superb!
————
Splendid even?
That’s true tricot but the new station will take some of the pressure of those trams.
Player One says:
Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 9:06 pm
frednk @ #225 Saturday, November 30th, 2019 – 6:50 pm
Whole thing is a bit sus I think.
I’m sure the UN authors would be interested in your critique of their report. You can contact them at info@productiongap.org
Let us know how you get on.
I will ask and I will let you know if I get a response.
Tricot
Museum Station made the walk shorter. I lived on campus, though, so my first few years I hardly used trains at all.
This strikes chords…
“Bill Shorten rose in the House on Thursday….. to ask a simple question – Who is responsible for this mistake? (Robodebt)
Who will own the consequences of this botch-up seems a quaint sort of question to ask in politics these days. It implies that people in public life remain accountable for things”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/30/the-robodebt-horror-was-all-about-boosting-the-budget-thats-the-brutal-truth?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I vividly remember the drudge of the bus from Central to UNSW (MOFO Cleveland St!), coming as it did after a 1.5h train ride.
Of course Daniel Andrews has a great plan to link several Universities and all major train lines in a $50 billion suburban rail loop which he has endangered by dining with a dodgy developer and letting his MPs take 160k.
frednk:
It’s mainly based on what governments say they are going to do, and as such its main (and welcome) contribution is to expose hypocrisy in government statements (who woulda thunk it?)
It should not be surprising that what governments say they will do, what governments actually do, and what actually happens as a result are three completely different things. The first has the lowest information content.
The analysis of supply-side policy instruments in the UN Report is based on:
– Erickson, P., Lazarus, M., & Piggot, G. (2018). Limiting fossil fuel production as the next big step in climate policy. Nature Climate Change, 8, 1037–1043. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0337-0
– https://www.sei.org/publications/limiting-fossil-fuel-production-as-the-next-big-step/
(click the button to get the full article)
However, it is quite misleading to suggest that either the report or the paper are advocating for supply side measure in isolation. Instead they advocate combined demand and supply measure within the same market. The particular example is in oil within California, which is both a major oil producer and a major oil consumer. In this market (which can be considered in isolation due to being large) and with (global) oil market elasticities of supply one would expect to see combined supply and demand restrictions applied to the whole market leading to demand reductions in the long term
There are several relevant differences between the domestic Californian oil market and (for example), the thermal coal market involving Australia and India:
– in order for demand restrictions to be effective as in the Californian case they would need to apply to whole market, in the example this means both Australia and India
– likewise for supply – in order for supply restrictions to be effective as in the Californian case they would need to apply to whole market, again in the example this means both Australia and India
– oil is (post refinery, which is what is burnt) more or less a standard set of products (the purpose of refining is to standardise to the local market). Thermal coal is instead a diverse range of products (every mine is different…) and the equivalents to refining are much less sophisticated. This means that thermal coal is far less subject to open market trading than is oil (with oil, one knows what one will get, or at least what one will get after refining, with thermal coal one does not) and is instead trade point to point. The result is that there is a lot of thermal coal “hanging around” not being produced (which in the case of oil would be traded internationally), i.e. there is higher supply elasticity as not all coal that could be traded at given price in fact is traded
– related to the previous point there is in thermal coal the political practice of colocating power stations with thermal coal deposits as part of nation building (we used to do it, they still do it). This is less frequent with oil as it’s usually more profitable to trade on the international market
As a result the analysis for oil in California does not translate to thermal coal in Australia + India (or Australia + any X). In order for it to do so, one would need:
– a single set of demand and supply regulations to apply (i.e. either we invade them, they invade us or we conclude a bilateral treaty to apply uniform regulations)
– to adjust for the differences in supply elasticity
– to adjust for the political preference for building power stations, or alternatively to eliminate the practice per the first point
It is unclear how these conditions could ever be met in practice.
I may have missed the context to Adrian’s asininities but I see the context to this and it is a disgusting comment.
Hi William,
I have changed my Credit Card number, and so my regular donation will be declined.
Should I send you my new CC number via email, or is it easier for me to set up a new monthly contribution?
I am guessing the latter is the case, but would appreciate confirmation.
Any place where I see cows on the way to get there is not part of Sydney (doesn’t apply to travel by air or sea).
Daniel Andrews dining with John Woodman (of whom I’ve never heard). It was reported in the Herald Sun but not in any reputable news outlet.
The question remains: did Mozart dislike women? – taking their voices to dizzy heights, very few reaching said heights. Perhaps this is an exception?:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuBeBjqKSGQ
Simon Katich.. where was that 1.5 hour train trip from?
Regarding the title of this thread…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1KH9qBWK1E
E. G. Theodore
says:
Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 10:55 pm
I have no experiences with cows nor do I have any immediate ancestors who had relationships with them.
I may have missed the context to Adrian’s asininities but I see the context to this and it is a disgusting comment.
______________________
You are reading too much into my comment. But then again my mind obviously does not turn as quickly towards bestiality as yours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-4V3HR696k
Interesting Youtube video on why some countries are rich an some are poor.
If you’re in a hurry, skip to the commentary starting at 7:34.
Interesting that the comments apply equally as well to the divide between rich and poor within Australia as between countries. In simple terms life has more to do with luck than it has to do with whether you are a special and deserving person. That to me is the single most harmful idea of all – that successful people are inherently better people – in other words there exist lifters and leaners. Its one of the two basic ideas that underlies the Conservative parties. And the sad thing is that they are so coy about it. It would be nice if Labor talked about this directly. It would be nice if the media also explained that life is more about luck.
C@tmomma @ #262 Saturday, November 30th, 2019 – 9:50 pm
We had milking cows on the farm I grew up on, only three of them (2 jersey’s and a friesian) which is why I hate daylight saving to this day, the cows didn’t put their clocks forward. I used to be responsible for the milking, separating the cream and churning the butter most of which mum sold to a local restaurant. Still remember the taste of warm milk straight from the cow and real cream. None of this thickened goop.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers on Sparse Sunday.
The former boss of Australia’s second largest private hospital operator has backed health insurers’ claims they are being gouged by medical device manufacturers. He reckons we are being played for suckers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/australia-a-treasure-island-for-medical-device-giants-ex-hospital-boss-20191129-p53fci.html
Peter Whish-Wilson opines that the Westpac scandal has shown us that nothing short of serious structural reform will deliver the kind of change that the Australian people deserve.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-banking-royal-commission-has-failed-westpac-is-proof-20191128-p53f38.html
Matt Wade looks at all the things we are delating in life and why it is so.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/buying-a-house-is-not-the-only-major-milestone-australians-are-delaying-20191129-p53fjb.html
Jacqui Maley thinks Australia is being governed by bloke-ism.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bring-in-the-bins-and-get-on-the-blower-to-the-commissioner-it-s-government-by-bloke-ism-20191129-p53fgj.html
In the National Party’s final days in 1989, a plot of land in the Brisbane CBD was purchased by the Queensland Government for a price far above its worth, writes Steve Bishop.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/queenslands-national-party-525-million-land-scandal,13366
The American health system gets so many things wrong, but we can learn from its in-home care writes Helen Pitt.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-hospital-at-home-would-help-us-all-it-certainly-helped-my-dying-husband-20191129-p53fej.html
Here is an excellent contribution from palliative care physician Kathryn Mannix on how we must learn to face and deal better with death.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/30/talk-about-death-openly-dying-bereaved
While the climate-deniers in power continue to burn our country, they still have no contingency plan to help those affected, writes Chad Satterlee.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/time-is-running-out-for-a-climate-adaptation-plan,13365
“Is there anything sadder than a chump who thinks he’s a champ?” asks Barbara Ellan as she analyses Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/30/donald-trump-is-there-anything-sadder-than-a-chump-who-thinks-hes-a-champ
Cartoon Corner
Reg Lynch has an opinion on Morrison.
A downcast Mark David bursts into poetry.
Two good ones from Peter Broelman.
Zanetti and a querulous Morrison.
From the US
GOLF UPDATE — 30 NOV 2019:
Trump is at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach.
He has now spent 225 days on a golf course he owns in his 1,045 days in office.
It is his 60th day at his course in West Palm Beach.
Trump Has Spent $115 Million On Golf Trips ― Or 287 Years Of Presidential Salary
Trump often boasts of donating his White House pay, but taxpayers are shelling out much larger sums for his hobby.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-golf-trips-millions-thanksgiving_n_5ddedbefe4b0913e6f7865cf?ri18n=true
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/bring-in-the-bins-and-get-on-the-blower-to-the-commissioner-it-s-government-by-bloke-ism-20191129-p53fgj.html
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/30/cult-that-defines-trumps-power-is-just-a-few-scratches-away-from-the-surface-in-australia?CMP=share_btn_tw
Tayliar?
Johnson’s lead over Labour halved to 6 points – BMG poll
The lead for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives over the Labour Party has narrowed sharply to six points from 13 a week ago, according to a poll by BMG for the Independent newspaper conducted before the London Bridge attack.
The Conservatives were on 39%, down 2 points, compared with the last BMG poll published on Nov. 23.
Labour rose five points to 33%. The Liberal Democrats fell five points to 13% and the Brexit Party gained one point to 4%.
The poll was the latest of several surveys by various polling firms to show a tightening of the race in recent days.
BMG polled 1,630 British voters online between Nov. 27 and 29. Polling was completed before an attack on Friday by a man carrying knives who killed two people before being shot dead by police on London Bridge.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-polls-bmg/johnsons-lead-over-labour-halved-to-6-points-bmg-poll-idUKKBN1Y40JX
@Firefox
The Labour Party’s improvement in the polls during the British election campaign, is a testament to the radical trans-formative platform of the party, plus the massive grassroots army actively hustling and campaigning for the party.
Cud,
Central Coast.
Angas lighter?
Morning all
My father is doing better then expected.
My family and I attribute this to the amazing work by members of our local hospital.
The medicos and staff treating my father have been nothing short of amazing. Their professionalism and dedication has been second to none.
Tristo,
Labour’s improvement in the polls is also due to the brazen way the Tories are employing every lie and trick in the book. Such as the fake ‘Fact Check’ Twitter account and, in light of the terror attack on London Bridge, the creation of a fake Tweet by Jeremy Corbyn that supported the terrorist.
The question the British people are asking themselves is, do they want their own lying, philandering leader a la Trump, and all the baggage he brings with him, or not?
It has been noted that one of the people stopping the attack on London Bridge, is a worker from Poland. Kinda puts Brexit in more perspective.
Fantastic news, Vic! You should do what I did when the staff at our big teaching hospital looked after my son exceptionally well and bring them a cake for morning tea. They were blown away! 🙂
@C@tmomma
The Tories are employing a similar sort of disinformation campaign, the Coalition (in cooperation of some sort with Palmer and One Nation) did in the recent Federal Election. However the British Labour Party, have a massive grassroots army numbering in the hundreds of thousands, directly engaging with voters. Because I argue for an disengaged voter, they are more likely to believe somebody directly talking with them, over seeing or reading ‘Fake News’ on social media.
Interestingly, Albanese to his credit recognizes that Labor might need such a massive grassroots army, in order to win the next election. I would estimate such a grassroots army would need at least 100,000 people.
C@ t
I have been patiently waiting for the Trump spell to be broken. Will it be in time for the UK election?
@Victoria
I argue Donald Trump if not impeached and removed from office, can win at least a majority of electoral college in 2020. Unless the Democrats nominate somebody, who can rally a massive grassroots army numbering in the millions. Because the Trump campaign will deploy the mother of disinformation campaigns, along with propagating ‘Fake News’on a truly massive scale.
C@t
As it is the xmas season, I have organised hampers for them!
Other day, I actually spoke to a doctor from Milan, who is collaborating with this hospital.
He has been here since March.
He said that Italian doctors are very well trained, but the hospital system itself is disjointed and things dont get done in a timely way.
His observations so far are that our systems are top notch.
Tristo
I know I keep saying same thing, but Trump wont be president after 2020.