A track winding back

A look at leadership approval poll trends, and my new facility for tracking them.

BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.

As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.

I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.

Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “A track winding back”

Comments Page 7 of 23
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  1. Maryanne Slattery
    @MaryanneSlatte1
    ·
    6m
    Basin Plan itself is a mostly good policy framework.
    Its implementation has been atrocious. The water market has also created a world of woe.

    We are witnessing a massive shift of wealth and structural adjustment by stealth.

    We need a Royal Commission.

  2. Thanks BK for your provision of the Dawn Patrol.

    From the BK Files 👇👇👇

    The American health system gets so many things wrong, but we can learn from its in-home care writes Helen Pitt.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-hospital-at-home-would-help-us-all-it-certainly-helped-my-dying-husband-20191129-p53fej.html

    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt has outlined his plan for a major shake-up of rules governing private health insurance which would include a “hospital in the home” option.

    Why not, I ask myself, provide for this type of service for all citizens ❓
    Private Health is subsidised by $6 billion dollars and rising.

    Arguments surrounding the subject abound – many articles have appeared telling of punters leaving Private Health in “droves.” Mr. Hunt bravely insisting on an only 3% hike in private health rates.

    Exactly what a citizen of limited means would have provided at home (courtesy of a home care package level 4) seems extensive*- apart that is that many would get nothing this side of the grave.

    Also available – Are there any other funds that help me?

    Home care providers may be able to access further funding supplements – to ensure you receive the care you need.

    These include:
    •Dementia and cognition supplement
    •Oxygen supplement for people with an ongoing medical need for oxygen
    •Enteral feeding supplement for people who need enteral feeding on an ongoing basis
    •Veterans’ supplement
    •Viability supplement for those in rural and remote areas.

    If you think you may be eligible, ask your provider about eligibility requirements.

    Short intermission – we have had more rain during the night in Newcastle. Hurrah, huzzah and yowsers for us. ☔

    A great photo in the quoted article of The Melbourne branch of the Thresold Choir, which sings at the bedsides of dying patients.

    **********************************************

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/30/talk-about-death-openly-dying-bereaved

    I have spoken to some of my family about this and as I result I will now lead the Poll Bludgers in a spirited rendition of

    ♫What kind of ♪ fool am I, who never♫ fell in ♪ love?
    ♪ It seems that ♫ I’m the only ♪ one that I have ♫ been thinkin’ ♪ of!
    ♫What kind of ♫ man is this, ♪ an empty ♪ shell?
    ♫♪A lonely ♫ cell in which ♪ an empty ♪ heart must ♪ dwell!

    Ah ❗ The roar of the greasepaint – the smell of the crowd.

    Good morning all. ☮☕

    *https://www.agedcareonline.com.au/2016/11/Home-Care-Packages-Level-4-HCP-Level-4

    What is included in a Level 4 Home Care Package?

    Personal care (showering/dressing etc)
    Domestic assistance (laundry/cleaning etc)
    Assistance with aids and appliances
    Social support
    Meal preparation
    Medication management
    Nursing care
    Allied health support
    Shopping
    Transport
    Support with changes to memory and/or behaviour

  4. Cassowaries are far more interesting than politicians.

    Ingrid says one reason cassowaries get hit by cars is they’re in no hurry to get off the road. “People think they are stupid,” she says. “[But] what they are is arrogant. They are the queens of the jungle and don’t move out of the way for anybody.”

    Females are particularly assertive and territorial, Wren says. She once climbed a tree, heart pounding, to escape one intimidating her. These intelligent birds are highly attuned to anything going on within their realm, she adds, telling the story of being slowly escorted out of a cassowary’s territory during survey work: “I was walking along a river and she was walking behind the vegetation, 10m behind me, calling regularly. When I crossed the river, she came out of the foliage and stood there staring at me for ages.”

    David says peacefully observing a cassowary at a distance as it goes about its daily activities is a wonderful experience: “A bird has tolerated my presence for hours on end on a few occasions and it’s always a really peaceful and privileged feeling.”

    https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/wildlife/2019/10/jungle-royalty-the-enigmatic-cassowary/

  6. Tristo @ #298 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 8:29 am

    @Victoria

    I argue Donald Trump if not impeached and removed from office, can win at least a majority of electoral college in 2020. Unless the Democrats nominate somebody, who can rally a massive grassroots army numbering in the millions. Because the Trump campaign will deploy the mother of disinformation campaigns, along with propagating ‘Fake News’on a truly massive scale.

    Remind you of somewhere?

  7. Did anyone see the puff piece about Jenny Morrison in the Sunday papers?

    Paul Syvret
    @PSyvret
    “Fashion influencer for the quiet Australians” ??

    I reckon it looks like she has thrown on one of those couch covers you can buy in KMart. 😉

  9. lizzie @ #285 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 6:25 am

    Taylor is the minister for emissions reduction in a government that is rightly criticised for not doing enough to meet its emissions-reduction targets.

    If Taylor is relying on dodgy documents to score cheap points off Clover Moore, how can we trust him on the important issue of credible emissions reduction?

    …Julia Gillard was called a liar for years, for much less, and yet everyone seems to be edging around that word in Taylor’s case.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/bring-in-the-bins-and-get-on-the-blower-to-the-commissioner-it-s-government-by-bloke-ism-20191129-p53fgj.html

    Time for Labor to dish up a serving of what goes around comes around.

  11. C@t

    I was just reading that, and wondering how to comment. Puffing her up as a fashion icon just has to be the most excruciating “journalism”. On a par with ScMo as an everyday family man.

  13. Rabobank figures from June show about 77% of Australia’s dairy processing capacity is foreign-owned. But farmers have much more pressing concerns than who owns the processors.

    “If we took foreign ownership out of the dairy industry we would have very few processors left in Australia,” says Graham Forbes, a dairy farmer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/01/australian-dairy-drought-foreign-ownership-farmers?CMP=share_btn_tw

  14. Barnaby Joyce, John Barilaro, Alan Jones and others have focused on the lack of hazard-reduction burning as a reason for the scale and impact of the current bushfires.

    This is a common response after destructive fires.

    After the Black Saturday fires, and in reference to the lack of hazard-reduction burning, Miranda Devine wrote “it is not arsonists who should be hanging from lamp-posts but greenies.”

    The same debate erupts after large fires in the United States.

    As a scientist who has dedicated considerable time – often at taxpayers expense – assembling evidence on house losses during bushfires, it is frustrating that more hazard-reduction burning is touted as the simple solution to our bushfire crises.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6514176/what-is-the-evidence-behind-hazard-reduction-burning/

  18. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    2m
    PM needs to regain self-control

    WTF makes anyone think that being a “suburban dad” is any kind of qualification for running the country?

  20. Sorry, but I have never, ever seen Mrs Morrison wearing anything I’d even consider remotely wearable.

    Maybe the dresses she wears sell out because the stockists only have limited stock…

  24. The Religious Freedom Bill is a ‘dilemma’ of the Morrison government’s making. They didn’t have to do it. They should have left it alone.

  25. Re Lizzie @8:58.

    During Autumn and Winter is is not uncommon for the air in Sydney to reek of bushfire smoke – the result of hazard-reduction burns in the Blue Mountains and other nearby bushland. Hazard reduction burning is being done. In particular, conservative pro-developer anti-environemnt parties have controlled the NSW Government since 2011 and some would argue before then. “Greenies” have no say on whether or when controlled burns are conducted, which Miranda Devine and her ilk would well know.

    And Miranda Devine incites violence against ‘Greenies’. Isn’t that… something?

    Now if someone were to say that right wing politicians and media figures should suffer certain unpleasant consequences for obstructing action on climate change and contributiong the the ferocity of the fires, just imagine the uproar.

  27. Dr Martin Parkinson finally bells the cat on the CPRS and Climate Change policy in this country over the last decade. That we have no functioning policy is the fault of the Coalition AND The Greens!

  28. Liberal Fan Kelly repeating Liberal smears about Penny Wong, that ‘she was walking around the Senate with a big smile on her face BEFORE the Ensuring Integrity Bill was defeated, like she knew it was going to be.’ 🙄

  29. lizzie

    Yep, that article on hazard reduction burns expresses many of the concerns I’ve raised here over the years.

    My SIL was (until she got a dream job in Tassie) a ranger in the Alpine Park. She refused to participate in fuel reduction burns full stop. According to her, most of the senior staff in Parks Victoria joined up in the days when, if you liked burning things, being a ranger was a good option.

    People with that kind of mentality are going to resist the idea that burns should be limited and targetted.

    In Victoria, the burns were expanded because the RC recommended this – whilst admitting that there hadn’t been enough research done in the area and it was basically ‘the vibe’.

    Another case of ‘we must do something, and this is something…’

  30. C@tmomma @ #327 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 6:18 am

    Liberal Fan Kelly repeating Liberal smears about Penny Wong, that ‘she was walking around the Senate with a big smile on her face BEFORE the Ensuring Integrity Bill was defeated, like she knew it was going to be.’ 🙄

    I didn’t understand why that was such a thing. Surely it just shows that Wong as Labor’s leader in the Senate, had some clue as to what the cross bench were thinking, whereas Cormann did not.

  32. Fess

    Agreed. Obviously Labor had been in talks with xbench in Senate regarding the bill.

    Whatever caused one nation to side with Labor, it happened.
    Pauline Hanson surely likes the idea of being queenmaker. And give the fiberals a clear sign not to take her vote for granted going forward

  34. ——————
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-4V3HR696k
    Interesting Youtube video on why some countries are rich an some are poor.
    ——————
    I once wrote an essay titled ‘Of Luck and Barbarity, Western expansionism and Wealth’ or something like that.
    There are a lot of books written on how countries succeed and others don’t. Jared Diamonds book ‘guns germs steel’ is excellent. Ferguson wrote a good one (5 pillars of civilisation?) although I don’t agree with all of it. Wallerstein has interesting things to say as well.

    What strikes me most about your video and Ferguson’s book is the importance of meritocracy, corruption and institutions. I studied the effect IMF and WB policies of structural adjustment (instituting neoliberalism) had on the third world and it amazed me how little they understood about how the first world developed these institutions. How the policies actually undermined the greeen shoots of institutions in the developing world and increased capital flight, the resource curse and exploitation and theft by western companies.

    There were examples in the third world where government run systems like farming, education and health were actually quite functional prior to structural adjustment, yet we’re decimated by it.

  35. Good Morning

    Wow Labor still has not learnt.

    You don’t find common ground by blaming another party for your failure. The whole shouting at people line by Senator Wong in regards to the Greens gives a free kick to the LNP.

    It’s back to now is not the time to talk about climate change framing the LNP have set as the Canberra bubble view.

    Edit: in other respects Senator Wong was excellent in not accepting the framing on China and integrity.

  37. Savva says what we all know: give Scotty a script and he’ll stay on message. But he’s hopeless when he has to think on his feet.

  46. ‘lizzie says:
    Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 8:35 am

    Maryanne Slattery
    @MaryanneSlatte1
    ·
    6m
    Basin Plan itself is a mostly good policy framework.
    Its implementation has been atrocious. The water market has also created a world of woe.

    We are witnessing a massive shift of wealth and structural adjustment by stealth.

    We need a Royal Commission.

    1. The MDB Plan is mostly a good policy framework but there are structural problems with the Plan itself. Of these, embedded assumptions about the amount of water available are, IMO, the key. Another big one is that the states are still playing funny buggers. Anothery is that there has never been a big enough environmental water allocation. The bastardization of a significant $13 billion of taxpayer funds for water savings and irrigation efficiencies is another.

    2. Aspects of the implementation of the Plan have been poor. But it has MOSTLY been implemented as intended. I don’t have the figures but my semi-educated guess is that most of the water goes where it was always intended to go in terms of the Plan. The Can the Plan Convoy is actually about this being true to the detriment of NSW Murray general security-reliant irrigators.

    3. It was always known that decoupling water from land parcels and creating a market in water was going to lead to massive structural adjustment. That was the whole idea. So, nothing stealthy about it.

    4. There has been a massive shift in wealth. Indeed. All sorts of farmers who were essentially free riders to some extent on the irrigation system are going broke or are selling out while they can. Massive irrigation-related investments

  50. C#t, showed the JM picture to OH (a dedicated follower of fashion) and said asked if she thought JM was a fashion influencer? He reply is ‘is today the 1st of April’?

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