The Essential Research poll series continues to chug along on its fortnightly schedule without offering anything on voting intention, with this week’s survey mainly relating to bushfires and climate change. Support for the proposition that Australia is not doing enough to address climate change have reached a new high of 60%, up nine since March, with “doing enough” down five to 22% and “doing too much” down three to 8%.
However, perceptions of climate change itself are little changed, with 61% attributing it to human activity (down one) and 28% opting for “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”. On the debate as to whether it was appropriate to raise links between climate change and bushfires, opinion was evenly divided – out of those who considered such a link likely, 43% felt raising the matter appropriate compared with 17% for inappropriate, while another 30% rated the link as unlikely.
A further question related to the issue of medical evacuations for asylum seekers, and here the situation is murkier due to the need to provide respondents with some sort of explanation of what the issue is about. As the Essential survey put it, the relevant legislation allows “doctors, not politicians, more say in determining the appropriate medical
treatment offered to people in offshore detention”. Put like that, 62% were opposed to the government’s move to repeal it, including 25% who believed the legislation didn’t go far enough. That left only 22% in favour of the pro-government proposition that “legislation will weaken our borders and result in boats arriving”.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1083.
C@tmomma @ #990 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 11:06 am
Yeah, nup. All you ever have to do to realize how silly this argument is, is to ask yourself why they don’t already do that?
And I discount what you say, since you are so clearly pro-coal. Of course, in the grand scheme of things, the individual opinions of you or me don’t matter. But what does matter is that many of the people whose votes you need to get elected now discount what your party says, and for the same reason 🙁
Nicholas @ #995 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 11:20 am
As I am perhaps over-fond of saying 🙂 … there are a lot of people who claim to “accept the science” who don’t seem to accept the consequences of accepting the science – i.e. that you actually have to … you know … do stuff 🙁
“It’s not going to be King Charles – he will re-name himself King George I believe, because all the previous King Charles’ were all horrible…”
***
Elizabeth I (the first, known as “The Virgin Queen”) wasn’t exactly the nicest person either. In fact, she was a religious extremist, although not to the same extent as her sister, Mary I (“Bloody Mary” herself), whom she succeeded.
To be honest, most of the former monarchs were pretty horrible people.
I posted this question at 10.50 am, but it went into moderation, probably a result of fat fingers typing wrong email or some such, so I’m just popping it here again.
Question without notice to PBs legal minds:
The Taylor referral is in the hands of the NSW Police, presumably because it involves the Sydney City Council and this is the body to which Labor referred the matter, but are they able to access material from or interview members of Taylor’s parliamentary office which is in the ACT and therefore not under NSW jurisdiction?
Denmark doesn’t have a problem with King’s names. For the last few hundred years it’s alternated between Christian and Frederick.
Sometimes, reading the mainsteam media makes me wonder if I have accidentally loaded an article from the Betoota Advocate …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-to-fight-europe-on-climate-demands-in-free-trade-deal-20191128-p53f3y.html
“Unfair!”, cries Simon Birmingham, as France asks Australia to actually do the things they agreed to do in other international agreements, before agreeing to sign a new international agreement – “Why should our complete failure to uphold one promise be held against us when making other promises? This is just not realistic!”
“ That is a contributing factor in those areas, but global warming caused by C02 emissions is the major cause of our changing climate.”
Globally – undoubtably you are correct.
As far as Australia is concerned – preceding greenhouse emissions and still the primary problem is – as briefly noted – ‘we wrecked the place’. Or, as I say – we crushed a continent.
Player One @ #1000 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 11:36 am
And exactly because you say guff like that and ignore the reality of what sort of votes are needed for Labor to win elections, is why your views are heavily discounted. And, as the last election showed, that being that you can hope for more votes from the left but they aren’t going to be forthcoming, is another reason why you can toil tirelessly on PB, P1, but that is never going to amount to much.
You just don’t seem to understand that the Indians aren’t just in Australia for mining purposes, nor are Australians just in our own country, they are in places like this:
Where, still today, the populace rely on coal and charcoal to cook their meals and heat their homes, and are hungry for power and are building coal-fired power plants:
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/malawi-seeks-bidders-for-coal-fired-plant-1005197
https://mininginmalawi.com/tag/coal/
You really should read those links to better inform yourself, P1.
And that is not the only country that is in that position or predicament.
So, you can call us realists here all the snarky insults you can come up with from the comfort of your eco resort, but until you give yourself a reality check and admit that apocalyptic solutions to the problem of Climate Change aren’t going to find favour, either here or just about anywhere else in the world anytime soon, then all I can reasonably do is ignore you.
Maybe Morrison and Birmingham think that they can treat the EU the way they treat the voters.
Player One:
That is not the correct question to ask.
There are many reasons why RIGHT NOW “they don’t already do that” (i.e. buy coal from US, Russia or indeed themselves, instead of from Australia). However, the system is not static and in particular the removal of Australian coal from the market would change the market in such a way that that question ceases to be relevant.
A more sensible question is whether they would start “doing that” (start buying coal from US, Russia or indeed themselves) if Australia were to stop selling. I.e.
i) would they switch coal suppliers at that point (as opposed to now)?
ii) would they instead switch to a different technology?
iii) would they instead “plunge themselves into darkness”? (i.e. reduce electricity demand)
And of course how quickly and to what extent, in each case.
Furthermore, if the answer is that they would switch coal suppliers to some extent, then one should also ask about the difference in the “energy” and “pollutant” content of the new supply versus the old. Is the new supply more polluting per unit of generated electricity? Do they have to burn even more coal in order to generate the same amount of electricity they currently do? I wouldn’t expect it to occur, but it’s certainly possible that the removal of Australia coal from supply could cause emissions to rise.
Firefox @ #984 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 10:44 am
There is no way the Queen would “retire” (and the source is the Express – birdcage lining material). She might hand over more duties to Charles – she’s already passed a lot on to various members of the family – but she takes her role as head of the C of E seriously and she gave a vow, oath, whatever thus:
“I declare before you all that my whole life whether it be long or short shall be devoted to your service and the service of our great imperial family to which we all belong.”
The language is of its time (it was a speech made in South Africa in 1947) but by all accounts she is a woman of deep conviction so I doubt if she’d break that declaration.
Also the effects of Edward VIII’s abdication affected her family deeply. Her mother always blamed Edward for the death of King George VI – the fact that he smoked about a hundred cigarettes a day had nothing to do with it, of course – but I doubt if the Queen would drag the dreaded word “abdication” into her life. That’s for the continental monarchies, don’t you know. 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1005 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:02 pm
Perhaps you might believe the CSIRO: http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2018.pdf
I think it is pretty clear what the science is telling us.
Oh, and Briefly’s continual cries of “we’re fucked” or “we wrecked the place” are just his rather pathetic way of saying “it’s too late to do anything, so let’s do nothing” 🙁
Coal-Fired Power Is Declining Thanks to a Slowdown in India and China
After more than a century as the world’s dominant source of electricity, coal may finally be losing its importance. Coal-fired power production is projected to fall 3 percent this year—the largest annual decline on record.
…
The reasons for the decline vary across regions. In North America, despite repeated efforts under U.S. President Donald Trump to revive coal production, cheap natural gas has led to a decreased reliance on coal-fired power. For the past couple of years, this trend was offset by rising demand for coal in Asia, which currently accounts for 54 percent of global coal consumption. But in 2019, rapidly decelerating growth in China and India led to a decline in coal production there. This comes at the same time as a marked increase in electricity generated in both countries from other sources of energy.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/26/coal-fired-power-is-declining-thanks-to-a-slowdown-in-india-and-china-climate-change/
Voters have a very low opinion of politics and politicians…and very low expectancy too. They do not expect a lot, which means voters really do not respond to political failure with great intensity. They also think “they’re all the same”, which tends to mean that disappointments in one set of politicians is transferred to all politicians.
Morrison is not an inspirational figure. He’s totally pedestrian. This is his great asset. He will be seen as an ‘everyman’ doing what politicians do – stuffing things up as much as any of us would. He has no claim to greatness and nor does he make one. His net-sats reflect this. The most important thing about these numbers is not stated…and that is that most voters really do not care about politicians most of the time.
“(and the source is the Express – birdcage lining material)”
Can’t argue with that description lol
C@tmomma @ #1006 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:10 pm
Australian coal! Saving the planet, one tonne of C02 at a time! 🙁
Steve777 @ #1007 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:12 pm
They’ll give it their best shot. 😀
Player One @ #1014 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:27 pm
Again proving that your unrealistic pov is not to be taken seriously. You can’t even attempt a serious reply. 🙄
Ttfn.
Player One
Mining coal is the act of a true humanitarian 🙂
The rise and rise of solar will drive coal out of the generation market. Coal plants need to run close to capacity or they lose money. If they run on an intermittent basis (to save on operating costs) their life will be greatly shortened, driving up their capital cost and further accentuating their losses.
It’s very notable that in India, where electricity demand is weak, the highest-cost/highest-loss generators have had their output cut. Those generators are coal powered. The object lesson is plain as day. Build substitute generators – wind, solar, hydro – and coal will be retired.
And to prove that you’re not a serious player, P1, you obviously didn’t even take the time to read the links I put up but took just enough time to think up a snarky retort. Proving, yet again, how useless it is to converse with you. Why waste my time?
A court has found the engineers who operated SEQ dams partly responsible for flooding when they released stored water to prevent the dam collapsing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-29/queensland-floods-class-action-victims-handed-partial-victory/11745632
Given that the deluge was unprecedented, beyond what the dam was designed to manage, and many homes were built downstream on areas that had once been deemed flood prone, I am tempted to ask what choice did they have? They departed from a manual. So what? It was written without such huge deluges in mind.
I will not hold my breath waiting for court investigations of the multiple successive planning and infrastructure ministers (Labor and Liberal) who have avoided taking action on housing built in recognised flood prone locations, or indeed reviewing the adequacy of the dams in light of the predicted climate change consequence of more severe floods. I assume they are in hiding now.
It reminds me of the court case a few years ago in Italy when earthquake scientists went on trial for failing to predict the L’Aquila earthquakes which killed 300. Meanwhile those in authority that had permitted or built the structures that were plainly substandard that collapsed never faced court. Ah Queensland – perfect one day, as medieval as Italy the next.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2011/sep/20/italian-scientists-trial-predict-earthquake
So called Laborites still apologising and providing succour for the likes of Canavan and his sponsor Adani, special pleading for the Morrison Quiet Australians to keep up with the f**king the planet with coal, because we’re so much better at it than those other foreign types. They need us to keep the world turning.
The fact is it is really shit that we can’t burn coal any more, but the science tells us that we can’t. There’s no room to claim you are “a realist” and deny that fact – if you do, you are rejecting the science as much as any right wing loon. Labor will have to face up to the fact sometime soon, and then put forward policies for rapidly transitioning from coal and develop exportable renewable fuels. Their ‘half pregnant’ position on this makes them look weak, stupid and duplicitous to all sides of the debate. The sooner they leap into the 21st century the better. If they don’t, then di natales outlandish prediction of labor being replaced as the progressive force in australian politics and having to govern in partnership with the greens and indies will come to pass – they’ll lose the under 35 vote even more than they already have, and over time that’ll become the under 45 and under 55 vote. I’m off to a climate protest now with my soon-to-be-voting age son and thousands of his contemporaries.
Quoll
The Greens Zero/2030 has a future for coal for the next 11 years.
RI @ #1018 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:30 pm
And that’s what we rationally have to do. We can’t just demand that coal be retired, we have to light the way. Our actions have to speak louder than our earrings. But first we have to lay out a plan that shows workers, in Greenhouse Gas-producing mining and related industries and communities, that we care about them. And we need to convince them that we have a transition plan worked out for them that sees them not lose a dollar of income. Only then will they listen to us and give us their votes.
Other than that, all the hot air in the world that is expended on PB won’t make a hill of beans’ worth of difference. That’s the lesson I learned from the May election.
Also in India…
Solar Power Plant, Telangana II, in India
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telangana_II_Solar_Power_Plant
Now that’s what we need to see much more of!
Firefox @ #1011 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:21 pm
You need to be careful with that, Firefox. The article on which the one you posted is based makes it clearer that this is a projection based on very limited data:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-coal-power-set-for-record-fall-in-2019
It actually reminds me a lot of the graphs that the government uses to show that we will meet our Paris commitments “in a canter” – the forecast is based on a sudden, sharp and frankly unbelievable drop in emissions.
Also, the base article points out that in our part of the world, and in the countries that are likely to buy our coal, the use of thermal coal is projected to increase, not decrease.
Win-win! Yay, Australia!
“Our actions have to speak louder than our earrings.”
***
Yeah, which means not being a complete coward and biting your tongue over environmental vandalism. It means putting the environment before the Labor party.
C@tmomma @ #1016 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:29 pm
When you make a serious post, you can expect a serious reply.
When you post party propaganda, you can expect a raspberry.
Firefox
You look likely to have your wish granted.
Indian PM Modi Ramps up Country’s Renewable Energy Target
by Sohrab Darabshaw on SEPTEMBER 26, 2019
Modi said India was now aiming to install 450 GW of renewable energy by 2022, more than double the previously promised 175 GW, The Hindu reported.
https://agmetalminer.com/2019/09/26/indian-pm-modi-ramps-up-countrys-renewable-energy-target/
RI @ #1018 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:30 pm
Which, of course, is why we must support the Adani coal mine!
Do you ever even read the nonsense you post? Or is it just that you expect others won’t?
C@tmomma @ #1019 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:32 pm
Since your arguments are so transparent, I honestly wonder why you bother as well 🙁
sustainable future,
Your sentiments are noble but they are full of untruths. So you are going to the Silent Sit-In with your ‘almost voting age’ child? Good for you. You know who’s not going? A hell of a lot of other kids that age whose parents need a job so as to keep a roof over their head and food on the table, or who live in rural and regional areas and don’t particularly want drastic action taken, also won’t be there. Not to mention the large number of tradies, working people and others who have more proximal concerns. So, while I appreciate your concern, the fact that you demand Labor do this or that, again denies the reality that Labor are in Opposition and unable to meet any of your demands and must, therefore, take a more realistic approach to the problem, no matter how much you may deride it, and them, for it.
“The article on which the one you posted is based makes it clearer that this is a projection based on very limited data:”
Fair point. Lets hope the projection turns out to be accurate. The following seems to be more than a projection though…
India
Electricity demand growth in India has continued to slow dramatically across the first ten months of 2019. In October, electricity demand actually fell by 13.2% against the same month last year.
Collectively, power from all non-coal sources grew by about 12% in January-September, leading to a downturn in coal-fired generation that is accelerating sharply. Coal-fired generation in October fell by 19% year-on-year to the lowest level since 2014.
Heavy monsoon rains have affected industrial power demand, but as demand has continued to plummet in November, a broad slowdown in industrial output is becoming increasingly apparent. This suggests that the country’s CO2 emissions growth is slowing further from the already low annual rate of 2%, which we estimated from data for the first half of 2019.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-coal-power-set-for-record-fall-in-2019
Well done, Tim.
C@tmomma @ #1024 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:40 pm
You tried that, remember? They didn’t believe you.
So, Indians deserve a pat on the head, eh?
https://mininginmalawi.com/2018/08/23/indian-investors-launch-new-coal-mine-in-karonga-malawi/
lizzie @ #1036 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:53 pm
Too busy being Eddie Everywhere. 😐
Firefox @ #1033 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:52 pm
Yes, there is some reason to hope concerning India.
Which is why approving the Adani thermal coal mine, which would have the effect of reducing the cost of coal-fired power in India – subsidized by the Australian taxpayer – is a really, really, really stupid idea 🙁
C@tmomma @ #1036 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 12:54 pm
No problem, C@t – I reckon Australia could probably undercut them on price.
Win-win! Yay, Australia!
Where is the evidence that says, if Australia stops new coal mines and coal mining in general, less coal will be burnt around the planet?
Another mainstream media article that could have come from the Betoota Advocate …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-29/uk-pollies-replaced-with-blocks-of-ice-at-climate-debate/11749128
Boris Johnson threatens to revoke the license of a TV channel that put a block of melting ice in his place during a televised debate … because he refused to attend. Boris is reported to have claimed that it was unfair that the block of ice did better than he would have done because it had a natural advantage in being able to “keep its cool” under the hot studio lighting.
Whatever effect there might be is going to be entirely trivial. Adani coal may be very slightly cheaper than its direct competition, but only slightly, and any effect on actual total demand in terms of running coal plants to generate electricity would be negligible.
Adani opening may result in it taking market share from other coal producers, but in terms of total coal burnt – that’s all about demand, not supply, and we must work on changing the demand.
I like these hybrid farms. Why just have one when you can have both? Combining them at the one location would surely save a lot of money. It also means that when one is generating less power the other can pick up the slack. On cloudy days it can often be more windy, right?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1040 Friday, November 29th, 2019 – 1:11 pm
That would be those pesky 11,000 climate scientists … I’ll post this para in it’s entirety again, because it also debunks all the denier-in-deed nonsense we have seen posted here again today (my bold) …
“The world must quickly implement massive energy efficiency and conservation practices and must replace fossil fuels with low-carbon renewables and other cleaner sources of energy if safe for people and the environment. We should leave remaining stocks of fossil fuels in the ground and should carefully pursue effective negative emissions using technology such as carbon extraction from the source and capture from the air and especially by enhancing natural systems. Wealthier countries need to support poorer nations in transitioning away from fossil fuels. We must swiftly eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels and use effective and fair policies for steadily escalating carbon prices to restrain their use.”
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806
Indians will likely change their policies radically (and in contradiction to each other) several times over the coming decade – some years towards less coal and some years back towards more goal. Their decisions will be based on India’s interests (as perceived by their decision makers) and/or the interests of the decision makers plus India’s “horizontal” model of corruption (cf. the “vertical” model of the Chinese). In particular Mr Modi is heavily invested in a program of delivering eleectricity to “villages.” This can go both ways vis a vis coal use:
– On the downside (i.e. more coal) there will be a tendency to panic from time to time and this will lead to a flight to the known quantity i.e. coal. This is a poor show but that’s the way the way the world is.
– On the upside, distribution level problems (caused by corruption) are a major issue frustrating phase three of the Modi, so anything that works around the distribution problems (assuming the corruption is unfxable in the near term) would be promoted. This could include solar at point of use, perhap even without storage to a limited extent
Hi Barney
I’m not sure how you came up with that question but will give it a go with an analogy.
If there are two pieces of cake left and you want both of them but they are on your kiddies plates, if child 1 say yes and child 2 says no, you will only be able to eat 1 piece of cake or 50% of said total cake reserve :).
I think this is what you are asking? There seems to be confusion in these types of issues because people need to look at the AGW equations as total budget scenarios instead of horse trading between various countries that hold part of said budget…..perhaps, thoughts?
Primary energy substitution is the key.
Solar is coming fast: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
The technical challenge is to get solar and wind to dance with the system and the fleet of industry plant and consumer devices. That’s in hand, but throwing up some interesting challenges.