The public release of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s report into Labor’s federal election campaign has inspired a run of commentary about the way ahead for the party after its third successive defeat, to which nothing need be added here. From the perspective of this website, the following details are of specific interest:
• Labor’s own efforts to use area-based regression modelling to identify demographic characteristics associated with swings against Labor identifies five problem areas: voters aged 25-34 in outer urban or regional areas; Christians; coal mining communities; Chinese Australians; and the state of Queensland. The variable that best explained swings in favour of Labor was higher education. However, as has been discussed here previously, this sort of analysis is prey to the ecological fallacy. On this basis, I am particularly dubious about the report’s suggestion that Labor did not lose votes from beneficiaries of franking credits and negative gearing, based on the fact that affluent areas swung to Labor. There is perhaps more to the corresponding assertion that the Liberals were able to persuade low-income non-beneficiaries that Labor’s policies would “crash the economy and risk their jobs”.
• Among Labor’s campaign research tools was a multi-level regression and post-stratification analysis, such as YouGov used with notable success to predict seat outcomes at the 2017 election in the UK. Presumably the results were less spectacular on this occasion, as the report says it is “arguable that this simply added another data point to a messy picture”. The tracking polling conducted for Labor by YouGov showed a favourable swing of between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the campaign, and finally proved about three points off the mark. YouGov suggested to Labor the problem may have been in its use of respondents’ reported vote at the 2016 election as a weighting factor, but the error was in line with that of the published polling, which to the best of my knowledge isn’t typically weighted for past vote in Australia.
• An analysis of Clive Palmer’s advertising found that 40% was expressly anti-Labor in the hectic final week, compared with only 10% in the earlier part of the campaign. The report notes that the Palmer onslaught caused Labor’s “share of voice” out of the sum of all campaign advertising fell from around 40% in 2016 to 25%, and fell as low as 10% in “some regional markets such as Townsville and Rockhampton”, which respectively delivered disastrous results for Labor in the seats of Herbert and Capricornia.
• It is noted that the gap between Labor’s House and Senate votes, which has progressively swollen from 1% to 4.6% since 1990, is most pronounced in areas where Labor is particularly strong.
Other news:
• The challenge against the election results in Chisholm and Kooyong has been heard in the Federal Court this week. The highlight of proceedings has been an admission from Simon Frost, acting director of the Liberal Party in Victoria at the time of the election, that the polling booth advertising at the centre of the dispute was “intended to convey the impression” that they were Australian Electoral Commission signage. The Australian Electoral Commission has weighed in against the challenge with surprising vehemence, telling the court that voters clearly understood that anything importuning for a particular party would not be its own work.
• The ABC reports there is a move in the Tasmanian Liberal Party to drop Eric Abetz from his accustomed position at the top of the Senate ticket at the next election to make way for rising youngester Jonathan Duniam. The Liberals won four seats at the 2016 double dissolution, which initially resulted in six-year terms being granted to Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry, and three-year terms to Duniam and David Bushby. However, the recount that followed the dual disqualifications of Jacqui Lambie and Stephen Parry in November 2017 resulted in the party gaining three rather than two six-year terms, leaving one each for Abetz, Duniam and Bushby. Bushby resigned in January and was replaced by his sister, Wendy Askew, who appears likely only to secure third place on the ticket, which has not been a winning proposition for the Liberals at a half-Senate election since 2004.
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian ($) reports that Jim Molan is likely to win a Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to fill Arthur Sinodinos’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. The decisive factor would appear to be support from Scott Morrison and centre right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke, overcoming lingering hostility towards Molan over his campaign to win re-election by exhorting Liberal supporters to vote for him below the line, in defiance of a party ticket that had placed him in the unwinnable fourth position. He is nonetheless facing determined opposition from Richard Shields, Woollahra deputy mayor and Insurance Council of Australia executive, who was runner-up to Dave Sharma in the party’s hotly contested preselection for Wentworth last year.
The New South Wales State Government Minister for suppressing road rage and for prosecuting fake cops indulged in a spot of road rage and in a spot of impersonating a cop.
By way of addressing the issue, Premier Berejiklian has announced that this is a matter for the police.
Oh yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees.
Yes I think that’s right nath.
Littlefinger 2025 – He’s tanned, ready and rested!
jenauthor @ #542 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 7:05 pm
An excellent overview. I’d only add that as a Psephy site, most people coming to PB were inclined to believe or weight the science of polling as a reliable measurement of public opinion. Unfortunately, that did not prove to be the case in the May Election.
jenauthor @ #542 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 7:05 pm
Not really disagreeing with you … but … here on PB we only had access to the external polls.
Labor had access to other information … and chose to ignore it – because it didn’t tell them what they desperately wanted to hear 🙁
We have mains-linked roof sprinklers here. Not ideal, but better than nothing. Used them today to wet down the guttering and soak the garden.
Yeah, yeah, I know.
The original claim was that the evidence suggested Labor would “romp” it in. i.e. win easily and comfortably. Outside of the rusted-ons, nobody was claiming that – especially as the polls were tightening during the election.
You are blameless if you thought, on the balance of things, Labor would probably get over the line but that was only by virtue of the required swing being minimal. The wide observation was that Labor got such a head start that they could limp over the line and that’s what they’ll probably do. So I’ll kill that straw man.
Even then, that begs another question (I know that’s not what the original phrase means; deal with it): If Labor needed only limp over the line, why should we sympathise with them for failing to do that?
Again, of course, people in PB land were focused in the final week over how gushing a room full of Labor Party sycophants were to care about any of that external “bedwetter” commentary. Oh and not to mention how many free votes Hawke’s death might win them.
Lars Von Trier @ #548 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 7:10 pm
Sawford has not been as reliable in recent polls.
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, November 8, 2019 at 7:12 pm
Sprocket how is the splendid Labor attack on Angus Taylor going? Has he resigned in disgrace yet?’
The situation is that the New South Wales state plods are still considering, considering, considering the referral. With a minister like they have, that is no surprise.
So, instead of Berejiklian sacking her incompetent minister and Morrison sacking his incompetent minister both of the them are far too gutless to even dare to try. As for Taylor doing the decent thing, you can forget about that. Decency is something the Liberals trashed some time ago.
2028. That’s when the free win “drover’s dog” election they can sleepwalk into will be. By then the population will probably be ready for anybody else.
Boerwar @ #562 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 7:18 pm
Taylor is a Duttonite. You know that saying about keeping your enemies close and dependent?
Does anybody know what happened to the hanson young , lyenhelm defamation case?
Farmer on the telly just now whinging about getting dirt cheap water. Because it was not enough!
And it is environmental flow water.
Eh, I don’t like relying on “formulas” like that. They’re correct until they’re not. Also, hasn’t it been wrong before?
Impersonating a cop is a serious crime.
As is road rage.
Sure Desi – I think all the Sawford formula means is that Government’s tend to win in good economic times (all things being equal).
That was the case in 2019 coupled with an unpopular opposition leader. Which came first?
P1……What people say is important in some poll and what will actually change their vote are separate issues. Climate change might rank as “important” but not before jobs and other bread and butter issues……………Score 15 all?
For ages, “Climate Change” has been the No 1 Motherhood, feel-good issue, but when push comes to shove, those people in the marginals just did not buy it…….Hard for Labor; impossible for the Greens…………………………
Yes. I confess I am the same person as anyone who has ever said or done anything you didn’t like. Nath, LVT, Rex, Pegasus, Firefox, TheTruthHurts… all me. That person who cut you off in traffic last week? That was also me. That schoolteacher in 1955 who gave you a bad mark on your spelling test? Also me. Everyone. All me. And them. We are Legion against you and your safe online bubble.
I certainly didn’t think the LNP would win. But my sister did and backed it in and made a very nice return.
Boerwar @ #532 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 5:26 pm
I am getting that vibe.
Di Natale’s concession that the anti-Adani convoy didn’t help Labor’s vote in those regions was actually a fairly major one, all things considered.
Maybe the wiser Greens’ strategists are finally starting to understand that without Labor in government their agenda goes nowhere either, and at the very least they need to not scare votes away from Labor.
Boerwar @ #537 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 5:30 pm
Let me put it this way: I was getting some stuff formally identified at the local herbarium 3-4 years back. I was alone with the botanist and asked them off the record if we had lost the war against weeds in the north of Oz, and he said yes, all we can do now is slow the spread, and in a century the northern ecosystems will look very different as a result of weeds.
Repeat Gamba fires kill all native flora species (far as I know). The only other species that could adapt and compete with it are also introduced. My personal nightmare is Calopo. It climbs and smothers everything, is nitrogenous and fast growing, puts down roots every few inches, and produces thousands of hard tough small (i.e. easily transportable) seeds that can survive as long as two decades in the soil. Had a small infestation on this property when I first moved in, and I stayed on top of it from day one, never let it go to seed. Took nearly 20 years to eradicate. By which time it had become independently established on several properties adjacent to me, and in the broader area, including acres of the stuff in the Darwin River region.
Almost all the pest weeds here were introduced for cattle feed, and as you probably know, beef export is one of the major industries here. So there has never been the political will to seriously eradicate them, and never will be.
I grew up here, and it breaks my heart to see all this happening. 🙁
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frednk @ #546 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 5:38 pm
AE and mundo had the jitters too. Correctly, it sadly turns out.
FMD
So Morrison and McCormack plan to provide MDB water to irrigators ‘to grow fodder crops’ and then to pay South Australia to desalinate water. Only fodder growers will be allowed to use the water. The water will be very cheap.
This is policy insanity. In how many ways?
1. The most expensive water by far in the system is desalinated water. So the are going to use taxpayer money to create the most expensive irrigation water in history.
2. They are giving farmers access to river water freed up by desalination.
3. That water will be given to farmers at something like 10% of market value.
4. Limiting the water to fodder crops ensure that the water goes to the least value crop in terms of farm profits.
5. The cheap water inputs will reduce the value of existing irrigated fodder crops by introducing competition based on virtually free water.
6. I assume that individual farmers will not be allowed to onsell their allocation.
7. This means that the average allocation parcel will probably be too small to grow an efficient scale of fodder crop.
Panic policies ridiculous.
https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/6481438/drought-plan-backlash-over-water-loans/?cs=9397
If the goal of the survey is to find out the frequency of certain voting intentions in the population TODAY, what is the value of weighting your sample to reflect voting behaviour at the previous election? Surely there would be a high percentage of people inaccurately stating how they voted at the last election. People’s memories are faulty, there is hindsight bias, there is dishonesty and wishful thinking. Also, isn’t it an example of begging the question i.e. you are bringing to the research process a prior assumption about the answer to your question instead of just finding the most objective answer to the question?
What?! Don’t tell me that Di Natale has admitted publicly the reality that Greens Bludgers have denied since the election!
JM
Thanks.
Nicholas @ #573 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 7:33 pm
Shorter Nicholas – The fix was in!
I thought Labor would get about 77 or 78 seats. I thought Shorten was, despite his personal ratings, a very good leader who had successfully implemented a strategy of taking calculated policy risks and had kept the team together. I also thought Chris Bowen was a proven wanker and the bigger and better budget surplus obsession was stupid. I thought the ALP should have given people more reason to vote them including tax cuts. I thought the PB dismissal of stronger preference flows from ON to the LNP was badly wrong. But I still thought the ALP had about a 95% chance of forming government. This was all based on about 200 polls in a row which said the ALP would win and their strategy was working. I tip my hat to the prophets who thought otherwise.
I don’t know anyone who thought the Liberals would win including Liberal Party people. One was that convinced he placed money on the ALP, he even showed me the receipt.
Boerwar
Ever meet Dave Lindner?
JM
Yep.
nath was ready to flee to the Victorian high country to lead the resistance to Littlefinger!
Confessions @ #574 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 6:03 pm
Yep.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bob-brown-s-convoy-hurt-labor-says-richard-di-natale-20191006-p52y1e.html
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Boerwar @ #580 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 6:08 pm
Taught me how to handle a .45 magnum, and bag several magpie geese with a single rifle shot.
JM
Now why doesn’t that surprise me?
It is sort of nice that some larger than life folk (in several dimensions) can still be found in the Territory.
Lars Von Trier @ #581 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 7:43 pm
The chance of a home boy like nath going anywhere without creature comforts is not very high.
JM:
Thanks. Not just admitting it, but stating categorically it is “absolutely correct”.
Boerwar @ #583 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 6:15 pm
Don’t know about now, but he was still alive and shit stirring in 2017. 🙂
And in more excellent news…
https://e360.yale.edu/features/vanishing-nile-a-great-river-faces-a-multitude-of-threats-egypt-dam
If you bother to read the entire article RDN actually said
“The reason it didn’t help Labor was because the Labor Party refused to take a clear position,” Dr Di Natale said in an interview.”
This is what Emerson and Weatherill also said….it was all about the ambiguity of Labor’s message.
The surplus fixation and related economic incompetence was central to Labor’s loss, and it should have featured prominently in the report. Unfortunately Labor has done quite a superficial analysis of what ailed them; they are doubling down on mythical economics and poor political strategy.
Lars Von Trier
says:
Friday, November 8, 2019 at 7:43 pm
nath was ready to flee to the Victorian high country to lead the resistance to Littlefinger!
__________________________________
My plan was to establish a series of hill forts. I hadn’t yet developed the next phase. Perhaps taking over radio transmitter towers. I was planning to read up on Castro.
“Morrison called it a miracle, for precisely that reason.”
Scott Morrison believes that God interferred in the Australuan election?
Confessions @ #583 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 6:19 pm
Yeah, I was both surprised, and appreciative.
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For the record, I am not anti-Greens. I quite like some of their policy ideas, if not always the detail. I certainly always place them above the LNP and sundry right nutters on the ballot papers.
But I wish they would grow the fuck up on how politics really works, and accept the absolute necessity of sometimes shitty compromise in order to get anything good done in this world.
Steve777 @ #589 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 6:35 pm
Scott Morrison believes that God interferes in everything.
It was a tough endeavour but the Facebook “death tax” campaign that Sergei suggested worked a treat! My how we laughed over the schnapps when it went viral!
RDN also said
“People in the coal industry know that these jobs are going. They understand that and they are being treated like fools by both sides of politics.”
Anyone who perpetuates the myth the Greens never ever compromise for policy to be implemented is most assuredly anti-Greens.
Pegasus @ #594 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:12 pm
Dream on!
As I recall, Labor seemed set to ‘romp in’ late last year, with polls something like 54-46. By the start of the new political year, it was 53-47. The polls tightened to 51-49 about 6 weeks out from the election and stayed there. A number of commenters here noted that this seems suspucious – no bounciness you would expect with a margin of error of 2%.
I believed the polls, so was just as wrong as everyone else, but I was worried. That is partly because I’m a natural pessimist, but also because there just wasn’t any ‘vibe’ for change as there was in 1972, 1983 and 2007, or, in a bad way, in 1996 and 2013. People were expecting Labor to win but were either unexcited by it or, if they were Coalition, resigned to it. Then we had the Murdochracy was campaigning like it was 2013. In the past they tried to make some effort to come out on the winning side. As it turned out they also did in 2019.
There’ll be no retrospective claims from me about being any wiser than the majority of pundits, amateur and professional.
I think zoomster is also planning a high country resistance movement should Albo be elected PM.
Not sure what happened here:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-08/charges-dropped-against-ex-sharkie-volunteer-paul-bunney/11687148
What I find interesting is how many Pollbludger apparatchiks went from Shorten is leaving Parliament/ must leave to meekly accepting he is staying for 20 years.
If Shorten is anything, he is a long-term planner with an unwavering focus on ‘the prize’.