The Call of the Board wheel now turns to Western Australia, after previous instalments that probed into the federal election results for Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland and regional Queensland.
Western Australia has been disappointing federal Labor ever since Kim Beazley elevated the party’s vote in his home state in 1998 and 2001, and this time was no exception. After an unprecedented Labor landslide at the 2017 state election and expectations the state’s economic malaise would sour voters on the government, the May election in fact produced a statewide two-party swing of 0.9% to the Coalition, and no change on the existing configuration of 11 seats for the Liberals and five for Labor.
As illustrated by the maps below (click on the images to enlarge), which record the two-party swings at booth level, Perth typified the national trend in that Labor gained in inner urban areas, regardless of their political complexion, while copping a hit in the outer suburbs. This will be reflected in the seat-by-seat commentary below, which regularly invokes the shorthand of “inner urban” and “outer urban” effects. The map on the left is limited to seats that are clearly within the Perth metropolitan area, while the second adds the fringe seats of Pearce (north), Hasluck (east) and Canning (south).
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For further illustration, the table below compares each electorate’s two-party result (the numbers shown are Labor’s) with a corresponding two-party Senate measure, which was derived from the AEC’s files recording the preference order of each ballot paper (with votes that did not preference either Labor or Liberal excluded). This potentially offers a pointer as to how much candidate factors affected the lower house results.
Brand (Labor 6.7%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Like so many other suburban seats distant from central business districts across the land, Brand recorded a solid swing to the Liberals after going strongly the other way in 2016. This dynamic drowned out whatever impact candidate factors may have had: Labor’s Madeleine King picked up a 7.7% swing on debut in 2016, but this time copped a 4.8% reversal despite theoretically being in line for a sophomore surge. The Senate result was little different from the House, further suggesting candidate factors were not much of a feature.
Burt (Labor 5.0%; 2.1% swing to Liberal): On its creation in 2016, Burt recorded a swing to Labor of 13.2%, the biggest of the election. This partly reflected the dramatic boomtime suburban growth that had caused the seat to be created in the first place, and which has since ground to a halt. The Liberals swing of 2.1% this time was typical for suburbia outside the inner urban zone, overwhelming any sophomore effect for the seat’s inaugural member, Matt Keogh. However, Keogh very substantially outperformed the two-party Senate metric.
Canning (Liberal 11.6%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Covering Perth’s outer southern fringes, Canning was another seat that typified outer suburbia in swinging heavily to the Liberals, in this case to the advantage of Andrew Hastie. Hastie came to the seat at a by-election held a week after Malcolm Turnbull’s rise to the prime ministership in September 2015, at which he survived a 6.6% swing to Labor, most of which stuck at the federal election the following July. The swing in his favour this time has returned the Liberal margin to the peaks of 2013.
Cowan (Labor 0.9%; 0.2% swing to Labor): Anne Aly gained Cowan for Labor in 2016 by a margin of 0.7%, slightly less than she would have needed to hold out the 0.9% statewide swing had it been uniform. She was in fact able to boost her margin by 0.2%, in a seat slightly out of the range of the wealthier inner urban areas where Labor did best in swing terms. The disparity between the House result and the two-party Senate metric, which records a 1.5% advantage for the Liberals, suggests Aly can take much of the credit for her win, over and above the exercise of the sophomore surge effect.
Curtin (Liberal 14.3%; 6.4% swing to Labor): The most prestigious Liberal seat in the west had a complicated story to tell at this election: Julie Bishop retired after more than two decades as member; the party raised some eyebrows locally by endorsing a Christian conservative, Celia Hammond, despite the seat’s small-l liberal complexion; and Labor initially endorsed former Fremantle MP Melissa Parke, who shortly withdrew after copping static over contentious pronouncements about Israel. An independent, Louise Stewart, held out some promise of harnessing support from Malcolm Turnbull loyalists, but her campaign was torpedoed after polling she circulated showing her well placed to win proved to be fabricated. Stewart claimed to have been the victim of a trick, while the Liberal response to the episode betrayed a certain inconsistency in attitude towards the dissemination of fraudulent documents for political purposes. The loss of Bishop’s personal support and the broader inner urban effect were evident on the scoreboard, with the Liberals down 11.3% on the primary vote and 6.4% on two-party preferred. The Greens continue to fall just shy of edging Labor into second – this time they trailed 17.6% to 15.6% on the primary vote and 20.4% to 19.6% at the last preference exclusion. Louise Stewart finished a distant fourth with 7.8%.
Durack (Liberal 14.8%; 3.7% swing to Liberal): When she first came to the seat covering northern Western Australia in 2013, Melissa Price had to fight off the Nationals, over whom she prevailed by 4.0%. However, she has since gone undisturbed over two elections as the Nationals have fallen to earth. The applecart was upset slightly on this occasion by the entry of One Nation, who scored 9.5%, contributing to respective drops of 4.3% and 5.8% for Labor and the Nationals, while Price’s primary vote rose 2.6%.
Forrest (Liberal 14.6%; 2.0% swing to Liberal): Nola Marino was re-elected with a modest swing amid a generally uneventful result. One Nation and Shooters Fishers and Farmers were in the field this time whereas the Nationals were not, but this was rather academic as the primary votes for all concerned were inside 6%.
Fremantle (Labor 6.9%; 0.6% swing to Liberal): The scoreline in Fremantle was not particularly interesting, with little change on two-party preferred, and downward primary vote movements for the established parties that reflected only a larger field of candidates. However, the results map illustrates particularly noteworthy geographic variation, with the area around Fremantle proper swinging to Labor in line with the inner urban effect, while the less fashionable suburbia that constitutes the electorate’s southern half went the other way (a pattern maintained across the boundary with Brand, where there was a 4.6% swing in favour of the Liberals). Labor member Josh Wilson was in line for a sophomore surge effect, although this was not his first bid for re-election thanks to a Section 44 by-election in July 2018, which passed without incident in the absence of a Liberal candidate.
Hasluck (Liberal 5.2%; 3.2% swing to Liberal): The Liberals’ most marginal Western Australian seat going into the election, Hasluck delivered Labor a particularly dispiriting defeat, with Ken Wyatt securing the biggest margin of his four election career. The swing reflected the general outer urban effect, although Labor did manage to pick up a few swings around relatively affluent Kalamunda.
Moore (Liberal 11.7%; 0.6% swing to Liberal): This northern suburbs beachside electorate is affluent enough to be safe Liberal, but not fashionable enough to have partaken in the inner urban effect. Third term member Ian Goodenough picked up a very slight swing, as the primary vote told a familiar story of the three established parties all being slightly down amid a larger field of candidates.
O’Connor (Liberal 14.5%; 0.6% swing to Labor): Covering the southern part of regional Western Australia, O’Connor was held by the Nationals for a term after Tony Crook unseated Wilson Tuckey in 2010, but Rick Wilson narrowly recovered it for the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a term in 2013, and the Nationals have not troubled him since. One Nation entered the race this time, but managed only a modest 8.4%.
Pearce (Liberal 7.5%; 3.9% swing to Liberal): Among the many Liberal scalps that went unclaimed by Labor was that of Christian Porter, who emerged the beneficiary of the outer urban effect after being widely written off in the wake of the state election landslide and the coup against Malcolm Turnbull. One Nation landed a fairly solid 8.2%, contributing to a solid 5.2% primary vote slump for Labor.
Perth (Labor 4.9%; 1.6% swing to Labor): One of Labor’s few reliable seats in the west, Perth has undergone frequent personnel changes since Stephen Smith retired in 2013, with Alannah MacTiernan bowing out to return to state politics in 2016, and her successor Tim Hammond failing to make it through a full term. This complicates sophomore surge considerations for current member Patrick Gorman, who retained the seat without Liberal opposition at a by-election in July last year. The swing in his favour reflected the inner urban effect, but he also managed to outperform Labor’s two-part Senate metric for the seat.
Stirling (Liberal 5.6%; 0.5% swing to Labor): In a once marginal seat that looked increasingly secure for the Liberals after Michael Keenan gained it in 2004, this election loomed as a litmus test of how secure the party would look when stripped of his personal vote. The results were encouraging for the party, with new candidate Vince Connelly suffering only a slight swing. The results map suggests a pattern in which the beachside suburbs and areas near the city swung to Labor, while the unfashionable area around Balga at the centre of the electorate went the other way.
Swan (Liberal 2.7%; 0.9% swing to Labor): Together with Pearce and Hasluck, Swan was one of three seats in Labor’s firing line, but Steve Irons was able to secure a fifth successive win in what has traditionally been a knife-edge seat. This was despite the pedigree of Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, whose father Kim Beazley held the seat from 1980 to 1996, when he jumped ship for Brand. The results map tells a family story in that the affluent western end of the electorate swung to Labor, while the lower income suburbs in the east went the other way.
Tangney (Liberal 11.5%; 0.4% swing to Liberal): Liberal sophomore Ben Morton held his ground in this safe Liberal seat, despite the riverside suburbia of Applecross and Attadale partaking of the inner urban effect. He gained 4.8% on the primary vote in the absence of former member Dennis Jensen, who polled 11.9% as an independent in 2016 after being defeated by Morton for preselection.
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guytaur @ #1301 Thursday, November 7th, 2019 – 9:41 am
No. Not being Donald Trump did it. That was the key selling point for the Democrats in Kentucky, Virginia, and elsewhere.
Conflating voters rejecting Trump with voters endorsing, caring about, or being remotely interested in an aggressively progressive policy agenda is folly and only risks disaster.
The best thing Democrats can do at the moment is shelve the policy talk and make everything a referendum on Trump. Go hard on his many, many (entirely legitimate and well-earned) negatives, tie every single Republican candidate to him, and don’t provide any free oxygen over guns, taxes, abortion, or whatever else typically agitates the Republican base. If Dems win huge majorities on the back of Trump’s toxic unpopularity, they’ll be able to do those other things anyways.
Trump hit with another loss in legal battle over his financial records — this time from a judge he appointed
A federal judge has signaled that he will allow House Democrats to move forward with a lawsuit that seeks to obtain President Trump’s tax returns, according to a new report from Bloomberg.
U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, said this Wednesday that “Congress has been subpoenaing for a long time and the executive has been complying for a long time.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/11/trump-hit-with-another-loss-in-legal-battle-over-his-financial-records-this-time-from-a-judge-he-appointed/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1041491
Giuliani has struggled to find a lawyer — because they’re scared to get tangled up with Trump: Preet Bharara
On Wednesday’s edition of CNN’s “The Situation Room,” former Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said the President Donald Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani has had trouble finding legal counsel of his own — because the lawyers he’s talking to don’t want to risk getting involved with Trump.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/11/giuliani-has-struggled-to-find-a-lawyer-because-theyre-scared-to-get-tangled-up-with-trump-preet-bharara/
Twitter is now apparently of sufficient impact that it is of interest to both espionage and counter-espionage organisations.
https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Former-Twitter-employees-charged-with-spying-for-14815126.php
I like that ad, because it makes the whole thing about Trump, Trump’s agenda (whatever the fuck that is), and stopping it.
All the encouragement anyone should need to vote Democrat is right there. A vote for a Republican is a vote for Trump. Their own ads say so. 🙂
‘Goll says:
Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 10:40 am
‘I’m unlikely to completely miss the point’
0/10 for self-reflection. You must try harder at trolling.
guytaur
“The Coal Miners of Kentucky voted for the Democrats with their Nrw Deal.”
They did? I’d really like to see the data to back this up. Do you have access to the demographic/vocational breakdowns for how Kentuckians voted in the gubernatorial election?
ar
Yes. It also makes it clear Sanders and AOC are not the scary bogeyman when your government is the scary bogeyman.
Thats what Labor has to do. Link Morrison to Trump. Make Morrison the scary bogeyman.
Morrison has provided plenty of ammunition.
Identity politics?
All parties do it. Some of them are better at it than others.
Kakaru
http://www.startribune.com/kentucky-dem-looks-to-made-inroads-in-pro-trump-coal-country/561964912/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kentucky-election-results-today-andy-beshear-governor-race-2019-11-05-live-updates/
‘phoenixRED says:
Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 10:58 am
Giuliani has struggled to find a lawyer..’
He may have restricted the field too much by trying to find one who is a betterer lawyer than he is.
Buttigieg could win the Iowa caucuses. Now only 1pt behind Warren in the latest poll. Although, as Kakaru has previously explained, it is more of a dogs breakfast than a vote.
Who is this Richo?
They did that in 2016 – didn’t work. What is needed is a genuine, sustained effort to engage with voters on the material conditions of their lives and to propose structural, systemic improvements. Poor white voters don’t care about the Trump scandals. If they see Democrats as fixated on the professional classes – as Elizabeth Warren and most Democrats are – they won’t support Democrats. They want to see policies that will integrate the underclass and the working class into the political and economic life of the nation.
guytaur – I read both articles. Neither support your contention that Kentucky coal miners went over to the Dem candidate and/or supported the Green New Deal.
The don’t scare them with policies do a Clinton 2.0 is what Centrists want.
Kentucky proved that does not work as that campaign advertisement proved.
The scary bogeyman is Trump.
In Australia the scary bogeyman is Morrison..
He is coming to take away your free rights of speech. Don’t take my word for it. Take that of the Australian in its Free Press campaign.
Labor has been handed the next election on a platter if they just use it.
Put human rights and corruption at the centre of the campaign
KayJay
In your image, is that massive buttressed building (behind the Guard Wombat) the new HQ for the Wombat Light Mobile Force which has as a war objective turning the nesting places of Inner Urbs Greens voters from a biodiversity wasteland into Wombat Heaven?
Or are we looking at a new subdivision of the identity politics market?
@abcnews tweets
Live: Labor releases report into how it lost the election https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-07/australian-labor-party-to-release-review-into-election-loss/11680368
Colonel Mustard in the regions with the Newspoll that did it.
@billshorten tweets
SimonKatich – indeed. The Iowa Caucus is enormous fun though.
Moreover, Iowa Democrats are not representative of the Dem Party as a whole. Iowa Dems are very white and very progressive. Warren may do well, and Biden may struggle In Iowa. But whichever Dem candidate can attract blue-collar and moderate voters will have the best chance against Trump.
Kakuru @ #1308 Thursday, November 7th, 2019 – 11:02 am
No they didn’t. guytaur is making crap up. The electorates which have the mines in them went for the Repugs.
Boerwar,
It’s the clinker storage building at Darlington on Maria Island, Tas.
https://goo.gl/maps/RDUS8o2vTrYFSTEg9
If only Shorten was always that eloquent and concise.
Kakuru @ #1316 Thursday, November 7th, 2019 – 11:13 am
From the Kentucky coal mines to the California Sun,
There Biden shares the secrets of their souls
Kakuru:
In a limited sense, it does seem to be true that the Democrats did relatively better in some of the eastern coal-mining counties. For example comparing the overall state vote, Bevin did 13.7 points worse than Trump did in 2016, but in Perry County Bevin did 23.3 points worse.
Boerwar @ #1318 Thursday, November 7th, 2019 – 11:16 am
Part One – WTF do I know ❓ Answer according to daughters – SFA.
Part Two – The field of Identity Politics Markets has today been privatised and subsumed into the “Department of Visa Scams and Waterboarding Of Protesters” and therefore cannot be answered without risk of ten (count em) ten years hard labor picking fruit and being fucked by scungy old farmers plus severe fines up to and including the family home.
Toodles.
Yes, that”s a good and clear statement from Shorten. Thanks, Guytaur for providing it here.
ABC
@guytaur
I would agree with such a strategy linking Trump to Morrison. However I also argue that Labor needs to present itself as firmly against the Australian version of Trumpism, which Morrison is arguably the ultimate manifestation of. Because as I see it Trump is very much influenced by what Pauline Hanson, John Howard, Tony Abbott, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison have been doing for years, although apart from Hanson not in such a blatant way as Trump has done.
@matttburke tweets
If Scott Morrison’s secondary boycott laws put every racist uncle in the slammer for sharing Facebook memes about halal & vegemite, the Liberal Party will have no one to hand out for them on polling day.
@lgbtqnation tweets
“Anti-LGBTQ attacks on our candidates almost universally backfired,” said @AnniseParker, President of @VictoryFund. #gay #LGBT https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2019/11/last-nights-election-rainbow-wave-144-lgbtq-candidates-won-office-year/?utm_campaign=wp-to-twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter
Meanwhile in Victoria, this morning Andrews has formally announced a transition package for the forest industry/logging sector in Gippsland .
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/immediate-end-to-old-growth-logging-as-thousands-of-jobs-set-to-go-20191107-p5388w.html
Nicholas @ #1316 Thursday, November 7th, 2019 – 10:10 am
No they didn’t. What election were you watching?!
And also that doesn’t even make sense. There was no Trump presidency to turn into a referendum back in 2016.
This is a list of the counties in Kentucky where coal is mined:
Coal extraction and remaining reserves by county:
Western Coalfield[7]
County Millions of tons of coal extracted Millions of tons of coal remaining
Butler County 30.2 353.29
Daviess County 62.33 1205.66
Henderson County 76.12 6700.53
Hopkins County 781.80 7251.20
McLean County 19.73 3536.95
Muhlenberg County 749.83 3224.18
Ohio County 266.72 1291.11
Union County 332.21 5842.56
Webster County 317.11 5688.73
Eastern Coalfield[7]
County Millions of tons of coal extracted Millions of tons of coal remaining
Bell County 302.69 2589.32
Boyd County 19.93 590.82
Breathitt County 208.47 3695.26
Carter County 18.61 464.74
Clay County 61.87 1412.37
Elliott County 9.87 296.58
Floyd County 459.68 3248.72
Greenup County 10.42 184.03
Harlan County 917.66 6045.80
Jackson County 11.31 353.25
Johnson County 97.56 1224.32
Knott County 329.90 3725.30
Knox County 75.51 1230.91
Laurel County 35.95 336.14
Lawrence County 26.81 1971.06
Lee County 8.49 347.00
Leslie County 259.17 3036.31
Letcher County 558.17 2576.46
McCreary County 55.34 334.29
Magoffin County 55.77 1857.56
Martin County 391.28 2537.41
Morgan County 15.22 818.96
Owsley County 10.02 554.10
Perry County 593.36 2409.98
Pike County 1420.07 8551.56
Whitley County 91.40 804.64
Wolfe County 7.16 429.60
You can cross reference it with the votes yesterday, here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html
They are ignoring the vulnerability of first time, non English speaking voters.
@TripleJay58 tweets
“When I talk about PM Scott Morrison being a white supremacist Evangelical like the white supremacist Evangelicals that elected (Donald) Trump … people are shocked and horrified that I make those connections.”
I’m not, Mona. It’s obvious he is. #auspol
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/mosquemetoo-founder-takes-aim-at-australia-s-retrograde-misogyny-racism
lizzie @ #1337 Thursday, November 7th, 2019 – 11:45 am
If they have come from China recently they might think all countries are like China, though.
Cat
Unlike you I was willing to let people draw their own conclusions.
I provided the links rather than clutter up the blogs and yes the compare and contrast was done.
The point is that backing a Green New Deal was a winner for the Democrats and the coal miners increased their vote for the Democrats.
I did not say all coal miners voted for the Democrats.
I honestly don’t get why the AEC isn’t actually taking a stand on this. Surely, SURELY, it is in their interests to take any opportunity to firm up the law and send a message that making material that looks like AEC material is not on.
What is going on over there?
lizzie
Yes exactly what Labor has to do for coal workers. At some point. Adani or no Adani.
Coal will stop as it is a fossil fuel industry and the science is crystal clear from those recommendations yesterday
@ak_pennington tweets
Stories for an international audience tell the full story of Aus’ dangerous trajectory in a way our media doesn’t. Striking piece @nytimes & powerful research by @TheAusInstitute fully mobilised #auspol https://nyti.ms/2WRbsRM
Wilderness Society’s response on twitter:
https://twitter.com/Wilderness_Aus/status/1192232923300130816
Victoria’s #forests have been so badly managed the wood’s run out, & the #logging industry is facing inevitable change. We welcome the Government’s response to the crises by supporting the transition of workers, establishing new plantations, & protecting some forests. #springst
I would have thought the legal bar would be not that the signs necessarily meant people voted as directed but that there was a premeditated intent to influence the way people voted by using the AEC colours & format.
I think it’s quite obvious that was what happened.
C@t
Exactly.
mikehilliard
They can hardly argue that it was accidental premeditation. 😆
Labor Queensland should be all the LNP doing what its told to do by the Sydney elite.
From Morrison down.