The Call of the Board wheel now turns to Western Australia, after previous instalments that probed into the federal election results for Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland and regional Queensland.
Western Australia has been disappointing federal Labor ever since Kim Beazley elevated the party’s vote in his home state in 1998 and 2001, and this time was no exception. After an unprecedented Labor landslide at the 2017 state election and expectations the state’s economic malaise would sour voters on the government, the May election in fact produced a statewide two-party swing of 0.9% to the Coalition, and no change on the existing configuration of 11 seats for the Liberals and five for Labor.
As illustrated by the maps below (click on the images to enlarge), which record the two-party swings at booth level, Perth typified the national trend in that Labor gained in inner urban areas, regardless of their political complexion, while copping a hit in the outer suburbs. This will be reflected in the seat-by-seat commentary below, which regularly invokes the shorthand of “inner urban” and “outer urban” effects. The map on the left is limited to seats that are clearly within the Perth metropolitan area, while the second adds the fringe seats of Pearce (north), Hasluck (east) and Canning (south).
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For further illustration, the table below compares each electorate’s two-party result (the numbers shown are Labor’s) with a corresponding two-party Senate measure, which was derived from the AEC’s files recording the preference order of each ballot paper (with votes that did not preference either Labor or Liberal excluded). This potentially offers a pointer as to how much candidate factors affected the lower house results.
Brand (Labor 6.7%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Like so many other suburban seats distant from central business districts across the land, Brand recorded a solid swing to the Liberals after going strongly the other way in 2016. This dynamic drowned out whatever impact candidate factors may have had: Labor’s Madeleine King picked up a 7.7% swing on debut in 2016, but this time copped a 4.8% reversal despite theoretically being in line for a sophomore surge. The Senate result was little different from the House, further suggesting candidate factors were not much of a feature.
Burt (Labor 5.0%; 2.1% swing to Liberal): On its creation in 2016, Burt recorded a swing to Labor of 13.2%, the biggest of the election. This partly reflected the dramatic boomtime suburban growth that had caused the seat to be created in the first place, and which has since ground to a halt. The Liberals swing of 2.1% this time was typical for suburbia outside the inner urban zone, overwhelming any sophomore effect for the seat’s inaugural member, Matt Keogh. However, Keogh very substantially outperformed the two-party Senate metric.
Canning (Liberal 11.6%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Covering Perth’s outer southern fringes, Canning was another seat that typified outer suburbia in swinging heavily to the Liberals, in this case to the advantage of Andrew Hastie. Hastie came to the seat at a by-election held a week after Malcolm Turnbull’s rise to the prime ministership in September 2015, at which he survived a 6.6% swing to Labor, most of which stuck at the federal election the following July. The swing in his favour this time has returned the Liberal margin to the peaks of 2013.
Cowan (Labor 0.9%; 0.2% swing to Labor): Anne Aly gained Cowan for Labor in 2016 by a margin of 0.7%, slightly less than she would have needed to hold out the 0.9% statewide swing had it been uniform. She was in fact able to boost her margin by 0.2%, in a seat slightly out of the range of the wealthier inner urban areas where Labor did best in swing terms. The disparity between the House result and the two-party Senate metric, which records a 1.5% advantage for the Liberals, suggests Aly can take much of the credit for her win, over and above the exercise of the sophomore surge effect.
Curtin (Liberal 14.3%; 6.4% swing to Labor): The most prestigious Liberal seat in the west had a complicated story to tell at this election: Julie Bishop retired after more than two decades as member; the party raised some eyebrows locally by endorsing a Christian conservative, Celia Hammond, despite the seat’s small-l liberal complexion; and Labor initially endorsed former Fremantle MP Melissa Parke, who shortly withdrew after copping static over contentious pronouncements about Israel. An independent, Louise Stewart, held out some promise of harnessing support from Malcolm Turnbull loyalists, but her campaign was torpedoed after polling she circulated showing her well placed to win proved to be fabricated. Stewart claimed to have been the victim of a trick, while the Liberal response to the episode betrayed a certain inconsistency in attitude towards the dissemination of fraudulent documents for political purposes. The loss of Bishop’s personal support and the broader inner urban effect were evident on the scoreboard, with the Liberals down 11.3% on the primary vote and 6.4% on two-party preferred. The Greens continue to fall just shy of edging Labor into second – this time they trailed 17.6% to 15.6% on the primary vote and 20.4% to 19.6% at the last preference exclusion. Louise Stewart finished a distant fourth with 7.8%.
Durack (Liberal 14.8%; 3.7% swing to Liberal): When she first came to the seat covering northern Western Australia in 2013, Melissa Price had to fight off the Nationals, over whom she prevailed by 4.0%. However, she has since gone undisturbed over two elections as the Nationals have fallen to earth. The applecart was upset slightly on this occasion by the entry of One Nation, who scored 9.5%, contributing to respective drops of 4.3% and 5.8% for Labor and the Nationals, while Price’s primary vote rose 2.6%.
Forrest (Liberal 14.6%; 2.0% swing to Liberal): Nola Marino was re-elected with a modest swing amid a generally uneventful result. One Nation and Shooters Fishers and Farmers were in the field this time whereas the Nationals were not, but this was rather academic as the primary votes for all concerned were inside 6%.
Fremantle (Labor 6.9%; 0.6% swing to Liberal): The scoreline in Fremantle was not particularly interesting, with little change on two-party preferred, and downward primary vote movements for the established parties that reflected only a larger field of candidates. However, the results map illustrates particularly noteworthy geographic variation, with the area around Fremantle proper swinging to Labor in line with the inner urban effect, while the less fashionable suburbia that constitutes the electorate’s southern half went the other way (a pattern maintained across the boundary with Brand, where there was a 4.6% swing in favour of the Liberals). Labor member Josh Wilson was in line for a sophomore surge effect, although this was not his first bid for re-election thanks to a Section 44 by-election in July 2018, which passed without incident in the absence of a Liberal candidate.
Hasluck (Liberal 5.2%; 3.2% swing to Liberal): The Liberals’ most marginal Western Australian seat going into the election, Hasluck delivered Labor a particularly dispiriting defeat, with Ken Wyatt securing the biggest margin of his four election career. The swing reflected the general outer urban effect, although Labor did manage to pick up a few swings around relatively affluent Kalamunda.
Moore (Liberal 11.7%; 0.6% swing to Liberal): This northern suburbs beachside electorate is affluent enough to be safe Liberal, but not fashionable enough to have partaken in the inner urban effect. Third term member Ian Goodenough picked up a very slight swing, as the primary vote told a familiar story of the three established parties all being slightly down amid a larger field of candidates.
O’Connor (Liberal 14.5%; 0.6% swing to Labor): Covering the southern part of regional Western Australia, O’Connor was held by the Nationals for a term after Tony Crook unseated Wilson Tuckey in 2010, but Rick Wilson narrowly recovered it for the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a term in 2013, and the Nationals have not troubled him since. One Nation entered the race this time, but managed only a modest 8.4%.
Pearce (Liberal 7.5%; 3.9% swing to Liberal): Among the many Liberal scalps that went unclaimed by Labor was that of Christian Porter, who emerged the beneficiary of the outer urban effect after being widely written off in the wake of the state election landslide and the coup against Malcolm Turnbull. One Nation landed a fairly solid 8.2%, contributing to a solid 5.2% primary vote slump for Labor.
Perth (Labor 4.9%; 1.6% swing to Labor): One of Labor’s few reliable seats in the west, Perth has undergone frequent personnel changes since Stephen Smith retired in 2013, with Alannah MacTiernan bowing out to return to state politics in 2016, and her successor Tim Hammond failing to make it through a full term. This complicates sophomore surge considerations for current member Patrick Gorman, who retained the seat without Liberal opposition at a by-election in July last year. The swing in his favour reflected the inner urban effect, but he also managed to outperform Labor’s two-part Senate metric for the seat.
Stirling (Liberal 5.6%; 0.5% swing to Labor): In a once marginal seat that looked increasingly secure for the Liberals after Michael Keenan gained it in 2004, this election loomed as a litmus test of how secure the party would look when stripped of his personal vote. The results were encouraging for the party, with new candidate Vince Connelly suffering only a slight swing. The results map suggests a pattern in which the beachside suburbs and areas near the city swung to Labor, while the unfashionable area around Balga at the centre of the electorate went the other way.
Swan (Liberal 2.7%; 0.9% swing to Labor): Together with Pearce and Hasluck, Swan was one of three seats in Labor’s firing line, but Steve Irons was able to secure a fifth successive win in what has traditionally been a knife-edge seat. This was despite the pedigree of Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, whose father Kim Beazley held the seat from 1980 to 1996, when he jumped ship for Brand. The results map tells a family story in that the affluent western end of the electorate swung to Labor, while the lower income suburbs in the east went the other way.
Tangney (Liberal 11.5%; 0.4% swing to Liberal): Liberal sophomore Ben Morton held his ground in this safe Liberal seat, despite the riverside suburbia of Applecross and Attadale partaking of the inner urban effect. He gained 4.8% on the primary vote in the absence of former member Dennis Jensen, who polled 11.9% as an independent in 2016 after being defeated by Morton for preselection.
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Hillary Clinton’s campaign was all about how grotesque and offensive Trump is, how historic it would be to have the first female president, and how anyone who doesn’t see the election in those terms is in the basket of “deplorables”. She didn’t campaign on systemic, structural changes to improve the lives of people in the underclass and the working class. Every time there was a new scandal about Trump’s behaviour, Democrats and their allies in the media were expecting that, surely, this time Trump is finished – he is just so beyond the pale and unacceptable that even poor white voters won’t vote for him. They were wrong. The campaign needs to focus on voters’ material conditions.
@Robillard tweets
Sanders has a massive lead in voter enthusiasm.
52% of Sanders’ voters are “extremely excited” to vote for him.
Buttigieg 31%
Warren 23%
Biden 19%
61% of Sanders voters say they’re definitely voting for him.
Biden 48%
Warren 44%
Pete 40%
https://poll.qu.edu/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=3647 https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1192177162268368904/photo/1
lizziesays:
Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 11:45 am
Despite the wonderful job the AEC do running our elections, it seems they have little stomach for policing them.
I agree the two functions should be separated, but at the moment it is part of their function.
For me there should be a separate body that vets all advertising with documentation needing to be provided supporting any claims being made in them.
Scrap the electoral college for a voter enthusiasm metric!
Or would that just re-elect Trump?
SK
Its not the only metric. However we do know that voter enthusiasm was why Clinton lost. That enthusiasm would have turned out voters in the swing states of the Electoral College rather than see them stay at home
✔
‘Victoria’s #forests have been so badly managed the wood’s run out, & the #logging industry is facing inevitable change. We welcome the Government’s response to the crises by supporting the transition of workers, establishing new plantations, & protecting some forests. #springst’
This is a classic example of why no-one should EVER trust the Greens.
This is a politically challenging decision. It will cost Labor votes in the regions. It creates difficult tensions inside the Labor Party. The Coalition parties will go full bore on job losses in the next election.
Now, instead of 100% supporting the Andrew’s government excellent policy in the face of difficult politics, the Greens snakes somehow or other find several different ways of snarking ‘not good enough’. Consummate arseholes comes readily to mind. These are the same fucking wreckers who stopped a carbon tax.
My BiL is working in old growth forests so I assume that his job has gone straight away. No waiting until 2030 for him. I might wait a while to see what happens before calling him.
Nicholas says:
Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 12:02 pm
Hillary Clinton’s campaign was all about how grotesque and offensive Trump is, how historic it would be to have the first female president, and how anyone who doesn’t see the election in those terms is in the basket of “deplorables”. She didn’t campaign on systemic, structural changes to improve the lives of people in the underclass and the working class. Every time there was a new scandal about Trump’s behaviour, Democrats and their allies in the media were expecting that, surely, this time Trump is finished – he is just so beyond the pale and unacceptable that even poor white voters won’t vote for him. They were wrong. The campaign needs to focus on voters’ material conditions.
The poor did not vote for Trump. On the whole, Trumpy voters have incomes that are higher-than-the-median. They’re whiter, more rural and better paid than Democratic voters. They are partisan Republicans with a very high propensity to vote. They detest everything there is about the Democratic Party and what it represents.
The project for the Democratic Party is to raise turnout among Democratic-affiliating voters and among Dem-leaning Independent voters. The swing cohorts are in the suburbs, where a shift is occurring from Republican-affiliation to Democratic-affiliation, especially among college-educated white women. The challenge for the Democrats is to raise the turnout in their traditional strongholds while also translating this new support into votes. The election will be won or lost in the suburbs in the swing States.
FMD
1. Frost has admitted that the material was intended to deceive.
2. The AEC failed to remove the material while it was up.
3. The AEC has announced that the complainants are the ones who have to demonstrate the material made a material difference to the election outcome. This is very grey and in some circumstances is an impossible test. How do you ever prove such a thing when voting is secret?
4. The AEC is now essentially arguing that the signs are no good because they would have failed to do what they intended to do: mislead.
Why is the AEC not leading the charge against an acknowledged attempt to subvert our democracy?
I must admit I had had some respect for the AEC. IMO, now it is just another regulatory body that is fooling into line with the Government.
“The one thing that unites all Queenslanders,” says Kevin Rudd, “is a general fuck you towards people from the south.”
Except for the Adani convoy. Queenslanders adored the Adani convoy. Keep ’em coming.
😛
guytaur,
This is a psephology website, so it is very odd to criticise cat for posting statistics. I found it very helpful, and I cannot see why the extra information “stops people from drawing their own conclusions”.
You are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.
“Sanders has a massive lead in voter enthusiasm.”
To quote my father-in-law: That, plus a dollar, gets you a ride on the Subway.
In other words… it’s worth sweet FA.
Morrison would speak in twenty tongues if the Greens mount another Adani convoy next election.
He would just LOVE it.
In fact it would be well worth Gina’s and Clive’s to set up a fake Adani convoy.
D & M
I provided the links to the statistics. So your rejoinder is specious.
I did nothing to conceal or hide the statistics and certainly did provide them direct from a US source.
CBS
B
Indeed.
Another way you could look at it. Andrews appears to have decided an electoral strategy of chasing the votes of those despised inner urban elites is more important. How ironic.
Kakaru
So nothing Trump was able to win the Electoral College because of it
guytaur
“52% of Sanders’ voters are “extremely excited” to vote for him.”
So, this relates to the Democratic base, right?
FFS, what a useless statistic. Extrapolating it to voters at large, across multiple swing states, is a huge stretch, even for you.
Which state has the most coal mines?
The five largest coal-producing states with production in million short tons and their share of total U.S. coal production in 2017:
Wyoming—316.5—41%
West Virginia—92.8—12%
Pennsylvania—49.1—6%
Illinois—48.2—6%
Kentucky—41.8—5%
The people who object to the clearing of eastern Victorian forests do not all live in the city, they also live amongst the trees.
The quantity of quality of timber has declined sharply for ages. Everything from good hardwood to oregon and baltic pine. Partly to blame is the rush for Indonesian and Malaysian rainforest timber, a harvest that was unregulated resource rape rather than investing in quality sustainable plantations.
Australia has one of the better regulated harvesting industries. But it can do better. Plantation timber industry should be very profitable once harvesting is properly regulated here in Australia and imports from unsustainable and poorly regulated (most certifications arent worth the paper they are written on) overseas products are banned. IMHO, ITMT, plantation timber should be subsidised.
“Sanders has a massive lead in voter enthusiasm.”
Sanders voters who vote for Sanders really love Sanders.
Biden voters who vote for Biden don’t love him as much, but they’ll vote for Biden.
By some metric that involves lots of arm-waving this relates to Sanders being more electable versus Trump.
guytaur,
I have sometimes thanked Lizzie for posting excerpts from articles in BK’s Dawn Patrol, because I only have time to read the headlines.
As far as I can tell, C@t provided a similar service. I found it extremely useful. It was not a particularly long post, and so it was not cluttering up the blog.
This is a psephology website. I still do not see how you can validly criticise someone for posting cold hard statistics.
I cannot even see how they contradicted what you stated, but that seems to be your concern.
lizzie @ #1337 Thursday, November 7th, 2019 – 11:45 am
Antony green just reposted this article from Graeme Orr re the probable outcome of the Chinese Poster case before the High Court. (written before the case proceeded). Seems to be about right.
https://theconversation.com/high-court-challenge-in-kooyong-and-chisholm-unlikely-to-win-but-may-still-land-a-blow-121300?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
Doogie was right. The Greens are narcissists.
He might have added that they lack all common decency.
The Andrews Government new forest policy is the single most audacious advance in Victorian forest policy ever.
Inter alia the decision immediately shuts out from timber production an ADDITIONAL 90,000 hectares of old growth forest.
I know that this is actually difficult for the Inner Urbs Greens to understand because they are lucky if they have nine old growth trees within walking distance of where they live.
It is massive because it adds to the existing old growth reservation areas.
So, what do the Greens do?
Snark, whinge, whine and squeal.
Kakaru
Yeah Michael Moore was so wrong about getting the base out to vote in Michigan.
D & M
My post was about Cat saying I lied not about posting statistics.
As I said your rejoinder is specious
While all good policy derives from the work of many, many people, there is one man who deserves more credit than most: Professor David Lindenmeyer who has been driving this outcome for many years with public advocacy combined with excellent science.
@redrabbleoz tweets
ALP ELECTION REVIEW
Finding 31: Chinese Australian voters swung against Labor in strongly contested seats.
Recommendation 7: Labor should develop a coherent strategy for engaging more fully with culturally and linguistically diverse communities, including Chinese Australians.
It would make sense that coal miners in the Appalachians would turn away from Trump. He promised to revive their fortunes, but he has failed. Mines are still closing. Workers are still left with unpaid wages. Production at US coal mines is falling, incomes are falling, employment is falling and communities are shrinking. Of course, in Republican style, nothing has been proposed by him as an alternative.
The coal miners were tricked. They have every reason to abandon Trump.
lizzie
You are right.
Boerwar assumes the Wilderness Society consists entirely of Greens voters and supporters. I don’t know but somehow he just knows because that’s the implication of his conflation of TWS with the Greens Party.
The snarking whinging, whining and squealing of Boerwar is really something to behold.
Ha. Oh those stubborn cranky Queenslanders.
The climate has a FU to throw back towards them; regularly, with increasing frequency and strength.
Some wog once said; ‘stubborn is the twin of stupid’.
Oh dear. Green v Labor is still the predominant meme on this site.
Disappointing.
I think party politics is ineffective in this country. As my ALP membership winds down I will be looking for a more effective way to stream the scintilla of activism left in my weary bones.
Probably Extinction Rebellion.
Boerwar
I was thinking of Lindenmeyer today. He has fought so long and so hard, but I bet he doesn’t receive enough congratulations.
‘Pegasus says:
Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 12:27 pm
B
This is a politically challenging decision. It will cost Labor votes in the regions. It creates difficult tensions inside the Labor Party. The Coalition parties will go full bore on job losses in the next election.
Indeed.
Another way you could look at it. Andrews appears to have decided an electoral strategy of chasing the votes of those despised inner urban elites is more important. How ironic.’
Another example of a Greens snark. No grace. No sense of decency. No sense of the importance and the challenge of this decision. Just your standard snide snarking.
‘lizzie says:
Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 12:41 pm
Boerwar
I was thinking of Lindenmeyer today. He has fought so long and so hard, but I bet he doesn’t receive enough congratulations.’
I know David quite well and have worked with him at times. My view is that he will mostly just be enormously satisfied with the outcomes. The Greens will snark that his efforts were not good enough. The Morrison Government will treat him badly, if it can. A future Federal Labor Government will, doubtless, honour him with a national award.
RI
Yes thats a large part of it. Of course some are waking up and leaving the cult.
Its not just the Scaramuchi’s of the world.
D & M,
guytaur said I was cluttering up the blog!?! 😆
Surely the onus should be on a Party to show something is not deceptive, with boundary being if there is any doubt it’s not permissible.
There are plenty of jobs to be found in re-afforestation, in forest regeneration and wilderness restoration. This is vital work and it’s located in the regions. It’s really high time we put back into the land some of the gains we’ve taken from it. Really, we cannot do enough of this. It is also possible to structure this work so it creates carbon credits, financial instruments that are AAA-rated and will contribute to CO2 sequestration and the struggle against climate change.
Guess PB has to have all the bloviators out today trying to gang up and defend Labor’s position.
The desperation of ALP partisans here to pump up each other in what seems obvious, vacuous and inane attempts to reflect some unviersal truth about how good the ALP is. Really seems to just reinforce how fragile and frankly all over the shop the ALP is on some major issues facing the country and the world.
Richo voted for the Libs? At least a bit more honest than some of the self-proclaimed ALP partisans around here, some who have defended Richo as the Great and Holy Warrior of Labor Environmental work for decades. Only taken three or four decades for him to be honest about where his political allegiance really lay, the LNP.
SK yes, reading about the Townsvillie residents who threateend to punch journo’s asking about climate change post their unprecendented rain and flooding. had me wondering just how much more of a punch back mother nature could deliver Queenlanders who think like that.
Boerwar @ #1385 Thursday, November 7th, 2019 – 12:43 pm
+1
What have The Greens achieved for the Victorian Old Growth Forests and Endangered Fauna lately?
Oh, that’s right, nothing, as they will never be the Victorian State government.
I have been conscious of the fight to save Melbourne’s water catchment and the eastern old growth forests for at least forty years, while the great owls and the possums have been amongst the animals suffering from clear felling.
I look forward to someone in the Greens cheering at the result, as opposed to the Liberals who are simply opposing, again.
Boer, the Greens would prefer it if Labor never attempted anything in the environment. This would suit their political campaign very well. The last thing they want is effective, strong and popular Labor government pursuing valuable goals in the environment.
They will be choking on their breakfast today.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bob Brown votes for the Liberals at the next election. They are against Wind Farms too. 🙂
I would love to see a debate between Sanders and Trump. IMHO, of all the dem candidates, Sanders would cope with this the best.
The DNC need to get the current field down to 3 or 4 and have some real debates. Throw in a few 1v1 debates. They need to see who has the mettle to mash it with Trumps bravado.
@msmarto tweets
Also interesting re Senate vote: “The growing gap between Labor’s primary vote share in the House & Senate is causing fewer Labor Senators to be elected, which makes it easier for the Coalition to pass regressive legislation. This gap is greatest in relatively safe Labor seats.
Hmmm. Safe Labor seats. So the small percentage of Green voters not the problem there then.
Could have something to do with Labor chasing the LNP instead of tending to its base.
Boerwar,
Such sensitivity. You really need to stop projecting. Citing political pragmatism as a rationalisation for an electoral strategy is okay for the Laborites but not others.
The writing was on the wall. If you don’t think the Andrews government didn’t factor in the political and electoral implications of his policy then I have a bridge to sell you.
guytaur
“Yeah Michael Moore was so wrong about getting the base out to vote in Michigan.”
This is a non sequitur. Just because Clinton turned off a lot of voters in Michigan (and she did), doesn’t mean that they would have opted for Sanders. Maybe they would have. But would Sanders have turned off other voters, such as more moderate or affluent voters? I don’t have the answers. But this assumption that Sanders is the panacea for every disaffected or unenthusiastic American voter is a total crock.
lizzie,
The fight for NSW’s water catchment versus more coal mines approved by the Coalition, goes on here.