Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

No change at all on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which records a mixed bag of movements on the leaders’ personal ratings.

The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.

Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 19 of 23
1 … 18 19 20 … 23

  1. Tristo

    Labor doesn’t have to.

    All they have to do is ask about the security risk of associating with someone the FBI has labelled a terrorist organisation.

  2. Tristo,
    Or, in the words of Michael Pascoe:

    Whether Scott Morrison’s wife’s friend’s husband is a conspiracy theorist isn’t an especially important question for me; what is important is whether our Prime Minister is a nutter.

    We don’t know the answer to that more important question.

    Mr Morrison won’t let us know. He won’t discuss the issues that have led to that question.

    They’re “gossip”, “bubble”, “family privacy”. Running away from what should be simple matters creates fears about how bad the answers might be.

    And his government has had to fall into line, stonewalling attempts to delve into two of the mysteries that help give rise to the nutter question.

    In anything like normal times, it would sound like a conspiracy theory to question whether the Australian PM is given to conspiracy theories.

    These are not normal times. It has become a rational question.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/23/scott-morrison-links-qanon-conspiracy/

  7. AR. More terrible stuff. Seth Abramson, a liberal professor and political commentator is also using the term ‘trump enemy’ in his latest book. Contact his publisher for all our sakes and complain!

    Proof of Conspiracy
    https://books.google.com.au › books

    … kill a personal enemy who is a U.S. resident is harrowing enough; that it might be used to criminally blackmail a Trump enemy using a Trump friend as an intermediary brings the prospect of Trump-Saudi collusion to another level entirely.

  10. More detail from estimates.

    A practice run for 2021 census was run in mid-Oct in Wagga Wagga/Logan

    40K questionnaires were printed- 20k with questions abt sexual orientation, 20k without

    Minister interfered & pulped the 20k w/ sexual orientation ?s

  11. Ex- NSA on the Republicans storming the secure area :

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    The invasion of a SCIF by unauthorized persons isn’t protest — it’s a Federal crime with serious #natsec implications. Lethal force is authorized to defend SCIFs. This isn’t a joke. Next time Gaetz & his merry band of felons try this stunt, they should be ready for consequences.

    House Homeland Security chairman directs sergeant at arms to ‘take action’ against Republicans who raided SCIF

    On Wednesday, House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-MS) sent a letter to the Congressional sergeant at arms, Paul Irving, asking him to “take action” against the gang of House Republicans who invaded the classified information facility during an impeachment hearing.

    “This unprecedented breach of security raises serious concerns for Committee Chairmen, including me, responsible for maintaining SCIFs,” wrote Thompson. “As such, I am requesting you take action with respect to the Members involved in the breach. More broadly, I urge you to take House-wide action to remind all Members about the dangers of such reckless action and the potential national security risks of such behavior.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/house-homeland-security-chairman-directs-sergeant-at-arms-to-take-action-against-republicans-who-raided-scif/

  12. Look AR. The New Yorker is also using the term.

    You’re demonstrating my point for me. The term is so ubiquitous as to be meaningless.

    Trump has enemies all over the place. The world is lousy with them. 🙂

    Nous sommes tous Trump Enemy.

  14. A R
    says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 11:52 am
    Look AR. The New Yorker is also using the term.
    You’re demonstrating my point for me. The term is so ubiquitous as to be meaningless.
    Trump has enemies all over the place. The world is lousy with them.
    ___________________________________
    Still. I think if you complain about my use of the term. You should also complain to the New Yorker et al. I mean anything less than that makes you come off as a bit of a wanker right?

  16. nath @ #914 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 11:54 am

    A R
    says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 11:52 am
    Look AR. The New Yorker is also using the term.
    You’re demonstrating my point for me. The term is so ubiquitous as to be meaningless.
    Trump has enemies all over the place. The world is lousy with them.
    ___________________________________
    Still. I think if you complain about my use of the term. You should also complain to the New Yorker et al. I mean anything less than that makes you come off as a bit of a wanker right?

    Ha!

  17. phoenixRED:

    [‘Next time Gaetz & his merry band of felons try this stunt, they should be ready for consequences.’]

    They shouldn’t be given a chance. They should be charged with contempt and sent to the slammer.

  18. Newsweek‏Verified account @Newsweek

    Anthony Scaramucci says Mitch McConnell will soon ask Donald Trump to “take one for the team” and leave office

    Speaking to Vanity Fair, the political consultant—whose time in White House communications totaled six days—suggested that “more damning” information on Trump would emerge and force Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to take action.

    “In the next three to six weeks, there will be more damning information related to the president” that will come out, Scaramucci said

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-anthony-scaramucci-leave-office-impeached-mar-lago-1467129?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=NewsweekTwitter

  19. Mavis says: Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 11:57 am

    phoenixRED:

    [‘Next time Gaetz & his merry band of felons try this stunt, they should be ready for consequences.’]

    They shouldn’t be given a chance. They should be charged with contempt and sent to the slammer.

    ************************************************

    Writer Greg Olear‏Verified account @gregolear

    Said it before and I’ll say it again: all it will take is ONE arrest, and these cowards will trip over themselves to heel. That goes for subpoena violators and SCIF squatters. One photo of a traitor in cuffs, and we’re done here.

  22. @guytaur
    Oh, those people, seriously once Trump is out of power, the Qanon movement are going to be seen by the American government and a lot of the people as terrorists. Especially if rabid Trump supporters (who believe heavily in the QAnon conspiracy theory) decide to launch an armed insurrection, if Trump is impeached and removed from office. So, Morrison’s association with QAnon is going make Morrison be seen with suspicion by the US government.
    Although, I can’t imagine Morrison being so stupid, not to distance himself from both Donald Trump and the QAnon movement, when it becomes a major political liability to be associated with both. Especially given that QAnon is pretty much unknown in Australia. What I know about QAnon is from what is being reported in the American media.
    Anyway, Labor could attack the Morrison government for being associated with right-wing crazies. However, it needs to be combined with unequivocal stances on the issues of Climate Change, Civil Liberties, Queer Rights and Gender equality. That sort of campaign would attract a lot of small ‘l’ Liberal voters who are concentrated in the middle-class suburbs of the major cities. Because if these people knew about what Scott Morrison and many in the government are, they will be shocked and disgusted. In the last Victorian state election these sort of voters swung heavily to Labor.

  23. The only way out for Trump is to have SCOTUS rule that Congressional Oversight is not in the Constitution.

    That’s before you get to Impeachment. It’s not going to happen. This is becoming apparent. As is his removal meaning no pardon for Mannafort or any of the others.

    The dam has broken for good reason.

    With McConnell having backed the trial which will be run by the Chief Justice in televised hearings I know Trump is gone.

    The evidence already public makes that clear. My only question is will it be President Pence or President Pelosi?

  24. A revealing 24 hours for the GOP and the ‘rule of law’

    It’s hardly breaking news that President Trump has an uneasy relationship with the rule of law

    What hasn’t been chewed over quite as thoroughly is how much this attitude has infected those around him — many of them in the Republican Party, which prides itself as the party of the rule of law.

    And the past 24 hours have been full of activity on that front.

    And as Trump’s standing as president become more embattled, it looks as though the “rule of law” party is going to continue making arguments about why Trump holds a unique place in relation to that law — and why perhaps it’s worth breaking the rules on his behalf.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/23/banner-hours-gop-rule-law/

  26. @guytaur

    Morrison believes that the Australian media will not investigate too deeply into his links with the QAnon movement. Also, Morrison can always say if seriously questioned, that he was unaware that his friend is part of the QAnon movement.

  27. Respect for other people, respect for their belongings, all going down the gurgler. This was also a theme on The Drum last night wrt inappropriate touching.

    Queensland’s only One Nation MP has been forced to apologise to Parliament for bringing a group of guests into the chamber who were caught rummaging through the desks of other MPs.

    “Parliamentary security has provided me video footage of the Member for Mirani and a group of visitors to the parliamentary precinct, under his responsibility, late in the evening of Saturday 19th of October,” he said.

    “The footage indicates that several of the visitors interfered with members’ desks in this chamber by opening the compartments under the desks where members store personal belongings and in some cases interfering with the contents.

    “Footage showed that in some cases when this occurred, the member was standing next to the visitor interfering with the members’ desk.

    “Disappointingly, this is not the first time I’ve written to the member about the behaviour of visitors he has responsibility for on the parliamentary precinct.”

    Stephen Andrew was asked to immediately apologise and has been suspended from bringing guests into Parliament for the next six months.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-23/one-nation-mp-guests-interfere-with-parliament-desks/11631180

  29. This sort of deception seems par for the course for the little Hunt.

    And last night in Senate Estimates the Department of Health confirmed out of the 2200 medicines the Minister claims to have listed, 316 are actually just price changes, and 1354 listings were at no cost to Government at all.

    Department of Health Official: “Price changes, 316. And we have a number of listings that are all with nil financial cost, 1,354.”

    This Government has been misleading Australians on how many affordable medicines they have listed on the PBS.

    Greg Hunt claims improving access to medicines is one of his four pillars of health.

  30. Tristo

    He is wrong.
    The extreme right wing is in trouble in the US.

    Their best hope is the judge stacking. However introduce term limits and rotating panels between the courts and that stranglehold fast disappears.

    With Nixon style polling Trump’s base can’t win. Pence doesn’t have Trump demagogue abilities if he survives.

    That’s ignoring the Guardian already has reported on the Morrison Qanon connection. Politics is about to do a sea change and the right wing desperation will see a fast not slow change as a result.

    Chile is an example. Public transport fares has triggered riots demanding changes to the Constitution that has inbuilt neoliberal economic inequality built in.

    People want monopoly government serves accountable to the people. Not monopoly services accountable to shareholders.

  31. ar

    I agree. Just from what has publicly been released Pence may not survive either. After him it’s Speaker Pelosi in line of succession

  32. @guytaur

    I agree with your assessments, however the Morrison government has the control of law enforcement agencies and media support, Trump can only dream of. Plus the government faces an opposition which has been pretty lack luster in my opinion lately.

    That control over law enforcement will result in even more authoritarian measures being introduced and the government will use excuse to justify introducing them. As we speak the government could get through legislation designed to suppress unions, with the support of Jackie Lambie.

  33. The photo I saw of the Republicans invading the SCIF had one person that looked very like Barnaby – surely there could not be another??

  34. Tristo

    Well today that’s changed. Labor has done with the Australian ID database what it should have done with metadata.
    That gave LNP members the courage to oppose Dutton too.

    Our media is going to change because the Trump fallout will include Fox and FaceBook.

    Already the Buttigieg campaign is damaged because of Facebook backing him.

    By the time of our next election Social media tech companies will be fighting actual regulation to beak them up. That means Facebook will have to divest Instagram and WhatsApp for starters.

    There will be more diverse democratic communication as Murdoch falls.
    That antitrust idea of breaking up powerful media ownership will hit big here too.

    I just don’t see the GOP winning and the Democrats have gone that far left with the support needed to win the General election. Trump has ensured it.

    I see Labor’s response being human rights. Rights to assemble. Right to strike. Right to free speech. Whistleblower protection. Government accountable to the people.

    That’s how much the political landscape is changing. Times moving so fast that an unknown businessman has put UBI vs a Federal Job Guarantee on the election campaign as an issue in the US election.

    It’s going to be a very different political landscape at our next Federal election as a result

  36. Don’t believe any figures on anything!

    Official government statistics have underreported the number of sick and disabled Newstart recipients by as much as 40% or as many as 80,000 people.

    Guardian Australia revealed earlier this year that Newstart recipients with partial capacity to work had reached a record high of 200,000 in December 2018 as people increasingly languish on the unemployment payment, now for an average of three years.

    But new data to June 2019, released on Wednesday, provided different figures, showing 284,900 on Newstart had “partial capacity to work” in December 2018.

    The figure for June increased to 289,489, of a total of 686,000 people on Newstart. It means 40% of recipients now have an illness or disability that prevents them from working full-time. In September 2014, the figure was 25% using the new figures.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/24/government-underreported-sick-and-disabled-people-on-newstart-by-80000?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  37. Trump’s Legal Team Is Now Openly Acknowledging That He Is Committing Crimes

    It’s not just Democrats in the House of Representatives who are arguing – based on a mountain of evidence – that Donald Trump has committed high crimes and misdemeanors that warrant an impeachment inquiry and possible removal from office.

    As Rachel Maddow pointed out on her program on Wednesday, even Trump’s legal team appears to be acknowledging that, yes, their client is actively committing crimes.

    Instead of denying criminal wrongdoing on the part of the president, they are attacking and obstructing the process or simply arguing that Trump cannot be charged or investigated while in office – regardless of how severe the crime is.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/10/23/trump-legal-team-acknowledging-his-crimes.html

  39. Australia’s environment department is unlawfully withholding more than 10,000 pages of freedom of information documents from the public, including internal records on Adani and the Angus Taylor grasslands affair.

    The department has failed to place documents on its FOI disclosure log for the past 10 months, meaning material it has released to individual applicants is not visible to the wider public.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/16/environment-department-illegally-withholding-thousands-of-foi-pages

  40. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/essex-lorry-deaths-thurrock-grays-ireland-bulgaria-container-police-a9168146.html

    The asylum-seeker issue should be understood within the context of widespread and organised human trafficking – trafficking of persons, of their rights, their labour, their bodies, their identities, their lives.

    People have been commoditised. In Australia, having been first commoditised asylum seekers are for intents basically without personality at all. They are political hostages, held for illustration and propaganda purposes. In this respect, the Australian Government is a political beneficiary of the trade in humans. Because the cargo has been seized and trafficked into captivity, the Australian Government is a co-trafficker. They are a party to the commodification of humans.

  41. The Australian
    @australian
    Scott Morrison has signed off on 52 pay rises for staff in his ministerial wing, adding an extra $1,414,272 a year to the budget. #auspol

    It pays to be in power. Especially if you’re one of the 52 people in Scott Morrison’s so-called “Star Chamber” lucky enough to score a secret taxpayer-funded pay rise. According to the Department of Finance, as of October 1 the Prime Minister has signed off on 52 “personal staff” in his ministerial wing being paid a “salary that is above the top of the range of their classification”, adding an extra $1,414,272 a year to the budget.

    So, who are they and how much are we paying them? We don’t know. The department won’t disclose which offices they work in or the exact dollar amounts they’re taking home. However, we do know it’s above the $269,631 salary plus $32,846 benefits package (including a private plate vehicle) paid to other senior staff. That means the favoured 52 are likely earning more than the average backbench politician, who as of July 1 has a base salary of $211,250 plus entitlements. Since the government’s surprise return in May, 10 people have been bumped up to the mystery bonus amount, at a cost of $260,272. By comparison, when Malcolm Turnbull was prime minister back on February 27 last year there were 26 staff paid “above the range” with an annual additional cost of $761,004.
    …
    That includes 13 people (up two from last year) in Chief Government Whip Bert van Manen’s office. He has more staff than 17 ministers, including Nationals deputy Bridget McKenzie. Why? Because his office houses the Coalition’s dirt unit. Which on paper goes by the name Members and Senators Support Unit.

  43. The Greens, of course, were participating brokers and underwriters in the commodification of humans in Australia. They continue to earn commissions on their investment.

  44. People want monopoly government serves accountable to the people. Not monopoly services accountable to shareholders.
    —————————-
    Guytaur
    It is you that wants that. A mistake many on the left make is to assume that the public agrees with them on government ownership and most Australians are shareholders, also in many cases former government enterprises are not really privatised in the sense they remain fully answerable to the government.

    Countries like Chile are entirely different societies with vastly different political cultures than developed countries like Australia. And when it comes to the American right, it will be fine post-Trump because unlike the Australian reactionary “try hard” right, the Americans have a well established conservative movement supported by a range of conservative think tanks and research institutes.

    If anything we might see a return to a more traditional conservative movement in countries like Australia and the U.K but the reactionaries will remain a political factor as long as there is a cultural war to fight.

  47. Mexican

    I was talking about Chile.

    However we know from polling that you are wrong about Australian voters. The problem is lack of government services in regional areas that just don’t have the population to sustain the most visible forms of that.

    The exception being healthcare.

    It’s one of the disadvantages of giving more weight to the rural voters over the majority of us in the cities. They get an outsized say on an area they don’t have impact them much.

    It’s political reality but don’t mistake that for being the majority.

    You are also wrong about the US.
    The Democrats are going to win. They have moved left. There is no centre in US politics. It moved too far right.

    Edit. Last CNN New York Times Debate spent more time debating UBI or Federal Job Guarantee than Climate Change.

  48. Tristo @ #932 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 1:09 pm

    @guytaur

    I agree with your assessments, however the Morrison government has the control of law enforcement agencies and media support, Trump can only dream of. Plus the government faces an opposition which has been pretty lack luster in my opinion lately.

    Plus the government faces an opposition which has been pretty lack luster in my opinion lately.

    Jeez! Has Tristo been supping Kool Aid with mundo lately!?!

    An Opposition doesn’t have to be fire and brimstone to kick goals, fcs!

    I would have thought getting John Setka to admit defeat and resign voluntarily from the ALP yesterday was a pretty effective performance from the Albanese Opposition.

    * Getting the government talking points, ditto.

    Fair dinkum, some of these anti Labor (for that’s what they are at the end of the day), Hanrahans will only be suitably impressed when Anthony Albanese walks on water! And then it’ll be too fast or too slow! 🙄

  49. Guytaur
    If Australians were really that keen for government to own and operate all services then they would vote differently, they will sometimes reject certain privatization plans such as we saw in Queensland a few elections ago. Australians seem to be more concerned with the delivery of services than who owns that service.

  50. Mexican

    There you go with your bias. Monopoly services are not all services.

    You are one of the ones that’s going to be blindsided by the fast changing political landscape.

    Edit: Also Labor NSW is opposing privatisation of bus services in Sydney.

Comments Page 19 of 23
1 … 18 19 20 … 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *