The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.
Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.
Guytaur
My bias, what rubbish are you on about?
I simply watch elections and try to understand them and it is the case that Australians seem more interested in services than who owns it but like many things it is also an age thing with older Australians being more likely to support enterprises owned or formerly owned by the government than is the case with younger people who generally don’t care about it as much.
When it comes to current political trends, the electorate seems to becoming more reactionary with a growing gap between the political left and the public.
Reports of a rift in the Tories between going for Brexit or going for a pre Xmas election. Denied (naturally) by No 10.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50162009
Also, an op-ed in the Guardian looks on the bright side (how Boris is losing it).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/23/not-even-boriss-narcissism-can-protect-him-as-cracks-show
Mexican
I said monopoly services. Not all services like you pretend I said. My post was not black and white it’s all or nothing.
McCormack rabbiting on about droughts and flooding rains, saying than when it does rain, it will flood and fill all the dams and Coalition is ready for it.
Guytaur
That touches on the divide between free marketers and protectionists which tends to go in cycles and seems to have reached the point where government needs to be more actively involved in the economy but there remains plenty of resistance to that. Not helped by the lack of skills among our politicians when it comes to actually building something.
He’s not really, though. He’s got 30+% of people who are willing to vote for him even as they acknowledge that he’s a pompous jerkass.
Compare to 40+% of people who want nothing to do with him but can’t decide whether they’re going to get behind Labour or the LibDems or some other left-wing party.
None of these right-wing asses are popular, but they win anyways because their side of politics does organization and unity while the other side eats itself by splitting its vote across several parties who can never seem to work out that to win they need to cooperate.
Mexican
That’s where you misunderstand the changing political landscape.
We are in a place where Trump voters are supporting Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders.
It’s become very divisive. Those that have been conned by the populists will know they were conned before the next election.
They might even know Hanson conned them in FNQ by the time of the next Queensland State election. Emphasis on the might.
They will have a backlash against the right as a result. For sure they have seen the Murdoch press on Freedom of Speech. Labor is on a winner on human rights. Freedom of Speech is one right wing voters do get b
Mex @ https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/10/20/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-9/comment-page-19/#comment-3273766
Just a high level comment about “then they would vote differently” – I would concur if one assumes people know what/who they are actually voting for.
OK for the politically engaged but many many people vote against their own best interests and the conservatives have made an art of getting the turkey to vote for Christmas. For evidence recall some of the exit interviews from this years May election.
Guytaur
I have written here many times that Trump and Sanders were essentially popular with the same rural/suburban voters in 2016 as shown by their respective primary results. Yang might be impressive but he isn’t a front runner at this stage.
Mexican.
https://videonews.today/krystal-ball-yangs-trucker-friendship-shocks-the-nyt-91196
@guytaur
My American friends remark that Australian political discourse is approximately where America was in 2014-2016. If one assumes that the recent Federal Election was our ‘Trump’ or ‘Brexit’ moment, which I believe it is was with the Adani issue probably being the deciding factor. Also, I have learnt since the recent Federal Election, not to underestimate Scott Morrison’s talents as a marketer and political tactician. Morrison is truly capable of doing anything in order to win the next election.
Never-less I do see policies such as UBI and a Green New Deal being implemented in this country around 2022-23. However I am seeing that it might take a political revolution in order for this to be achieved.
Mexican
You are arguing a Chimera. I never said Yang was a front runner. This is what happens when you turn a nuanced post into a black and white position.
Tristo
I am not predicting a UBI. I do predict Labor will do a Green New Deal. They just won’t call it that. Marriage of infrastructure with Environmental policies is already what Labor is arguing.
They won’t use that labelling because of our media demonising AOC ignoring Greta Thunberg supports it.
Guytaur
It is you that is assuming extra meaning to comments that should be simply taken as written. If I was referring to something you wrote then I would say that and where possible show it as a quote.
Mexican
Nope it’s you. As shown. I wrote monopoly services. You wrote ALL services.
That’s a very big difference.
It’s the same when you falsely make out I claimed Yang was a front runner
Okay Guytaur
You did write the following
“You are arguing a Chimera. I never said Yang was a front runner. This is what happens when you turn a nuanced post into a black and white position.”
Now nowhere did I say you said Yang was a front runner and I did not say anything about “all services” or “monopoly services” I simply commented on government ownership verses non-government ownership.
@guytaur
If the Labor party were to propose something along the lines of the Green New Deal. I argue that they would need to be honest with the electorate, in saying that the fossil fuels industry is dying. However argue that policies can be implemented to help transition the economy, through this process.
RI @ #881 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 11:06 am
This should tell you something. But you are clearly beyond rational argument 🙁
Tristo
Labor are not going to say fossil fuels are dying. I agree they should. However that’s not what they are doing. I think it’s hurting Labor’s credibility and trust factor big time. They seem to be willing to take the hit.
By the time of the next Federal Election I expect they will be regretting it
Mexican
Yeah it’s me totally delusional about what you posted. Got it
@Mavis:
“ Andrew_Earlwood:
[‘I can’t see any of the three desiccated septuagenarians being able to do that…’]
I find your comment bordering on ageism. Yes, Joe’s got memory problems, arguably commensurate with age; Bernie, health problems. But Liz has only just turned 70 and appears to be in robust cognitive and physical health. On second thought, maybe they should give way to someone your age and maturity?”
My apologies. My main bug bear with the democrat septuagenarians is not their physical age or health, but the rigidity of their thinking and ideas. Politically, I have grave doubts about their ability to connect to a sufficiently broad cross section of their target community to win the swing states.
Yes, I’d like the baby boomers to give way to someone around my age and maturity BUT I’m disappointed to report that none of the likely GenX crew appear up to it. In many ways they are all worse than the septuagenarians they should by now be replacing. I was hoping that Amy or Kamala would cut through: no chance, it seems.
Of the older candidates Warren appears to have the most going for her in terms of physical health – hey how about THAT 24 yo stud muffin she has on the side, but … well let’s say this: although Amy’s campaign isn’t going anywhere it seems she did sort out Warren well and good in the last debate: Warren might promote herself as a policy wonk, but its mainly easy popularist shibboleths she is peddling: Bernie is far more authentic – which ain’t saying much frankly.
QT is an absolute shambles and I don’t know who to blame. Not surprised that “politics” is no longer the flavour of the month.
Morrison has resorted to succinct answers, out of character for him – I can’t think why?:
[‘Anthony Albanese started Question Time with a somewhat facetious question to Scott Morrison.
“Is the reason his government won’t commit to a bipartisan approach with Labor on the drought because he cannot even manage a bipartisan approach with the National Party?” he asked.
“No,” the Prime Minister replied. Officially a tie for the shortest answer in history.
Labor’s agriculture spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon had the next question.
“Who is running the government’s chaotic drought response – the Prime Minister or the National Party backbench?” he asked.
“The Cabinet,” said Mr Morrison, before promptly sitting back down.
It is remarkably refreshing to see some succinct answers for once, but I have to say, my ears pricked up at that second one. It could easily be interpreted as a pointed message to Mr Morrison’s colleagues in the National Party – policy is decided by Cabinet, not by leaks to the media.’]
@guytaur
I have been following Brexit closely, it has radicalized the British electorate on both sides and it has become an identity issue. Also the British Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn have experienced a massive decline in support in the electorate. This is what I argue because of the party and Corbyn being seen as ‘sitting on the fence’ on Brexit. Even if Corbyn’s stance on Brexit, I argue has been a shrew and pragmatic one.
Already with the recent federal election and the #stopadani movement, I am seeing signs that the question of the ‘Climate Emergency’ is going to do the same to the Australian electorate. Therefore; Labor even if it has the good policies, could experience a similar magantune of decline in electoral support, if they are being seen as ‘sitting on the fence’ on this issue.
While the Coalition I see, wont lose too many votes, because they are positioning themselves to be the equivalents of the Brexiters on this issue. Not to mention the potential for the Greens support in the polls to skyrocket to around 20% or even more, which incidentally what the Liberal Democrats in Britain have managed to achieve because of their clear Remain position.
Guytaur
It isn’t about being delusional. One thing I notice on social media with many so called politically engaged types is that they seem to have some difficulty in understanding alternative opinions or alternative ways of expressing an opinion. I am sure I would have.
Looks like Trump thinks New Mexico is part of Old Mexico:
Tristo says:
Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 3:15 pm
@guytaur
I have been following Brexit closely, it has radicalized the British electorate on both sides and it has become an identity issue. Also the British Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn have experienced a massive decline in support in the electorate.
This is nonsensical.
If Brexit has ‘radicalised’ the electorate, how come support for Labour has fallen so much?Brexit is not a ‘radical’ anything. It is Tory/nationalist longing.
Brexit has divided the UK electorate like nothing else. It has busted Labour support. It has taken the Tories to the point of breaking up the Union.
RI
I think the reason Labour’s support has fallen is because its leadership is seen as weak, Corbyn doesn’t come across as a would be PM but this is partly because he and the Labour Party are split between its pro-Leave supporters in the north and Wales and its pro-remain supporters closer to London. The Johnson plan offers Labour with more to attack than the May plan did.
Steven Hail was on ABC Radio in Adelaide yesterday. The host was David Bevan. He discusses a talk that he gave to economists from the Commonwealth Treasury and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.
https://soundcloud.com/michael-sanderson-291849230/steven-hail-on-abc-radio?fbclid=IwAR0-eM7AXzPYxoVScgF2j2Ol5KpgWxRaEBG5hlHHebHjILYjpWUPEJ4RgwM
I thought the strongest Brexit constituencies were Labour Party areas. So much for a “tory longing”.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Please believe my “ageism” reference had/has nothing to do with my own age(?). I must learn how to do those orange thingies.
There is a big age gap between the front runners and the apparent also runs. With nothing more, Great- Uncle Joe Biden appears to have the nomination sewn up. I think he’s too old but he does have a wealth of experience in Congress, both as a senator and vice-president,* giving him a huge advantage. I also believe he’s the only contender who has the presence, authority to take on Trump at his own game. The youngins will have their day further down the line.
* For interest: [‘The vice president, as president of the Senate, has the authority (ex officio, as he or she is not an elected member of the Senate) to cast a tie-breaking vote. … Vice presidents have cast 261 tie-breaking votes since the U.S. federal government was established in 1789.’]
Having read about the privatisation of the remainder of Sydney’s bus services on my way to work, I was stunned. Actually no. I’m surprised they’ve waited 7 months to announce it.
Anyway, having finished my first half I returned to the depot to find hundreds of letters from Steffen plus a couple of pages of q&a’s for the staff.
I tell you I was touched by Steffen’ s page and a half letter. The tears were flowing down my cheeks as Steffen recounted how the battle had been fought and how proud we….blah. It was a pile of CEO bullshit that I suspect was dictated to his PA on his luxury yacht on Sydney Harbour while he quaffed Dom Perignon 1856…back when he was CEO of Sydney Ferries. No doubt a quick merge replace of Sydney Ferries with State Transit and voila.
At least the SMH were honest enough to point out that Transhit Systems on time running in region 6 is worse than when STA ran it.
lizzie:
[‘QT is an absolute shambles…’]
I rarely watch QT, preferring in lieu to read the live Guardian thread.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Don’t bank on Biden
I think that First Dog got it right yesterday on Brexit. It was a project started by Born to Rule spivs allied to truculent racists.
Mavis
I move from the Guardian to the TV, so I can black out the ridiculous govt answers, but today nothing much made sense and for once the Speaker took a leading role. He even forced Dutton to stick to the question, which shut the Potato down. I still don’t admire him as Speaker, however.
New Zealand could teach Australia a thing or two …
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/24/ardern-tells-new-zealand-farmers-to-cut-carbon-emissions-or-face-penalties
Privatisation –> cuts in staff + cuts in service + cuts in reliability + soaring prices.
Gosh, the “tipping point” for the Amazon could be as much as 20 years away …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/23/amazon-rainforest-close-to-irreversible-tipping-point
As long as that? No worries! Briefly is right – let’s burn more coal!
Steve777, ex-STA staff will be offered a take it or leave offer in January. They’ll lose annual leave, overtime, penalty rates will be minimised.
If the Newcastle model is followed, the private operator is willing to have a pool of drivers sitting in the depot getting paid single time to do nothing rather than call drivers in on their day off to cover any sick leave or other contingencies.
Shifts have been shortened to save money. Who knows what’s happening with maintenance.
Mexicanbeemer @ #980 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 3:32 pm
The Blairites are repelling voters with their authoritarian behaviour. Boris can’t believe his luck.
lizzie
Noted. I don’t think much of Smith either. But I guess he’s better than Bronnie – but that ain’t hard.
Mavis
Anyone’s better than Bronnie. 😆
Meanwhile… Angus may have dug himself a deep hole. I think his only escape is to blame the “correction” on his staff – or the dirt unit?
guytaur:
[‘https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Don’t bank on Biden’]
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-10-23-2019/index.html
UK Labour centrists have engaged in a lot of sniping and undermining against the party’s membership, and against Jeremy Corbyn (who represents the members). This has undoubtedly hurt the party’s public standing. The abominable behaviour of centrists shows that it was a mistake for Corbyn to be magnanimous towards them after thrashing them in two leadership contests. He should have insisted on automatic pre-selection contests in every seat in every term so that most of those centrist MPs could be replaced by progressive candidates. The Labour centrist MPs are complacent and careerist in their orientation – they expect to have a seat for life – and they don’t like the idea of having to win over the local party branches.
lizzie:
[‘Labor will refer the Taylor/Sydney City Council matter to the NSW police within 24 hours if the government doesn’t.’]
Interesting development.
Nicholas – If UK Labour gets crushed in the general election, then Corbyn only has himself to blame. Stacking seats with more “progressive” candidates at the expense of “centrists” will not help Labour’s cause. Get real.
“The Blairites are repelling voters with their authoritarian behaviour. Boris can’t believe his luck.”
Boris can’t believe his luck that he’s facing Jeremy Corbyn. What planet are you living on, Rex?
Mavis @ #997 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 4:18 pm
And it involves The Daily Telegraph being complicit!
Honestly, ‘Pretty Boy’ Taylor thought he got away with #Watergate and so he was Teflon-coated. He didn’t count on coming up against Clover Moore. 🙂