The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.
Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.
I’ve posted this before but this is every Donald Trump tv and movie cameo. It is interesting that he was so well received/portrayed in some iconic American liberal shows like Spin City and Sex and the City. It even has Trump enemy Kathy Griffin gushing over him and proposing him for President in Suddenly Susan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yosAVMB47-Y
nath
Not the first time a malignant narcissist conned people.
Look at Boris Johnson and our very own Scott Morrison.
Anyhoo still hoping that the shadowy group behind Brexit get exposed in time.
Is the govt showing any competence in any area? Any at all?
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mike-pezzullos-denial-results-in-asylum-seeker-surge,13237#.Xa_khK3BjOg.twitter
All the speculation around Trump being impeached or resigning and not running in the next US Election is really driven by whether the Republicans stick with him during the next period.
At the moment the polls show the US has an appetite for the Impeachment process. But, re actual impeachment, the electorate is much more evenly divided and the polls are certainly highly skewed to political party preference.
The judgement the senior Republicans are going to need to make is around whether Trump is an anchor for them electorally and they may lose the Senate if they support him. McConnell is already hedging his bets by contradicting Trump assertions about alleged conversations. So, if more damning revelations are forthcoming (which is pretty much a certainty), expect a few conversions on the way to the Senate.
As to whether Trump could run and win. I have my doubts. He has the internal economy bouncing along which is usually a positive for re-election. And he certainly has a loud and aggressive supporter base pumping his tyres. But, he does start 3 million votes behind on the popular vote and there seems to be a growing tiredness of the corruption and scandal that dominates just about every news cycle.
As is always noted here, it really depends on the mood come November next year and who turns out.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #844 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 8:49 am
Just as well that’s some random dudes half-informed opinion.
[‘She said drug dependency should be treated as a chronic disease and governments should adopt evidence-based policies and therapies only.
Instead, they relied on policing and incarceration despite no evidence of their effectiveness and their potential to harm, said co-author and fellow NDARC researcher Professor Michael Farrell.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/drug-laws-not-fit-for-purpose-world-leading-drug-experts-warn-20191023-p533fw.html
Governments, especially those of the Tory persuasion, don’t do evidence-based policies; Portugal does and it’s working:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/dec/05/portugals-radical-drugs-policy-is-working-why-hasnt-the-world-copied-it
BK @ #818 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 7:27 am
Ah, the illustrious Professor Blakers! However, he has apparently omitted the obligatory arrow labelled “Magic Happens Here!” from the graph in figure 1 🙁
Are MPs on both sides finally waking up to the danger of giving Home Affairs so much power? We can only hope.
Guardian:
Trump surviving is all dependent on Moscow Mitch McConnell. Mitch knows which way the wind is blowing. Trump is done.
Dont know the timeline. But he will not be there in second half of next year.
I of course am hoping it is before this xmas.
Victoria:
You seem very confident about that. I hope you’re right.
On a related matter, Giuliani appears to have gone to ground.
Fess
I have always been confident that Trumps treasonous conduct would be exposed.
I have been very wrong on timeline.
I believed it would have been done and dusted by now.
Guiliani is probably trying to broker some deal to get out of the trouble he is in.
nath @ #851 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 8:28 am
Is this how we’re describing people now? Seems pretty non-useful. Every halfway-decent human being on the planet can be accurately tagged as ‘Trump enemy [Insert Name]’.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #844 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 7:49 am
Well if everyone throws around Trump-positive hashtags (in places that actually support hashtags) and talks about how a Trump win is inevitable (even if they don’t personally want that, though maybe they secretly actually do) instead of encouraging everyone who will listen to just get out and vote for anyone whose name isn’t “Donald Trump”, then maybe.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/22/20921302/netflix-unnatural-selection-biohacking-crispr-gene-editing
a r
says:
Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 10:16 am
nath @ #851 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 8:28 am
Trump enemy Kathy Griffin
Is this how we’re describing people now? Seems pretty non-useful. Every halfway-decent human being on the planet can be accurately tagged as ‘Trump enemy [Insert Name]’.
_____________________________________________
Seeing that she beheaded an effigy of him. Yeah I’m content that what I said is an accurate depiction. 🙂
And in shocking news, it appears Harry and Meghan are on the nose, HM apparently removing their photo from its former prominent place:
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/royals/framed-meghan-and-harry-photo-removed-from-buckingham-palace/news-story/992822723c2aa16fb068ad7f8a57a5fe
Quel surprise nasty nath is a Trump defender. Not. 😐
Confessions @ #860 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 10:11 am
Wouldn’t that just be the PR 101 thing? Wait till the smoke clears then get back to business?
Mavis
What a beat-up. As usual.
C@tmomma
says:
Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 10:22 am
Quel surprise nasty nath is a Trump defender. Not.
_____________________
Just out of interest in seeing how deranged minds work, how could you tell I was a Trump defender?
Repugs forcing their way into private hearings shows Trump has a rabid base in the GOP as well as the voting public.
Isnt there a chance Trump could run as an independent (so long as he isnt behind bars)? Dont the Republicans have to weigh this possibility up?
Could he also run independent senate candidates against any repugs who ditch him?
IMO, he has a lot of them by the curlies.
lizzie:
[‘What a beat-up. As usual.’]
Could be. There are rumours that the couple is planning to live in the States. Britain’s tabloids would be beside themselves. It’s also clear that the royal brothers are at loggerheads. Maybe a thread should be created to plot the royal soap opera?
a r
says:
Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 10:16 am
nath @ #851 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 8:28 am
Trump enemy Kathy Griffin
Is this how we’re describing people now? Seems pretty non-useful. Every halfway-decent human being on the planet can be accurately tagged as ‘Trump enemy [Insert Name]’.
_____________________________
Oh and by the way. Describing her as ‘Trump enemy’ was only useful in the context of the youtube video I posted of her in the 90s gushing over Trump and speculating on him being President.
Simon Katich:
[‘Isnt there a chance Trump could run as an independent (so long as he isnt behind bars)?’]
He certainly could, though that would split the conservative vote.
Conversation
Noah Shachtman
@NoahShachtman
– House Dems trying to turn screws on Pompeo
– Two sources close to the impeachment inquiry said they expect a new witness “to supply additional information about Pompeo’s role”
– Judge orders immediate disclosure of Ukraine docs
Quote Tweet
Noah Shachtman
@NoahShachtman
· 13m
Things are not looking good for Mike Pompeo. https://thedailybeas
Confessions says:
Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 9:02 am
Andrew E:
Next year’s election is very much the Democrats’ to lose. And I fear this is what will happen.
Trump is the front-runner for 2020, based on the state of the economy, the solid numbers in his base and their propensity to turn out.
The Democrats have an uphill run to win. But they can win if they can activate Democratic-affiliating voters in swing States.
Honouring the Vets is a good thing.
They risked their lives for our democracy.
We should welcome this new intiative.
Not piss all over it.
Because Morrison is forever on the lookout for inane culture war battles that make no practical difference but which help secure his dominance in the regional seats.
The Republicans storming a closed hearing?
Their contempt for democracy, tradition, decency and respect for others knows no bounds.
It knows no bounds.
There are stunts and there are stunts. But, a journalist presenting Mike Pompeo with dog food and recommending he eat it three times a day so the US could learn to be faithful and loyal is different.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1186965985867304961
Player One says:
Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 9:26 am
RI @ #840 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 8:32 am
This describes the effects of mass/rapid deployment of renewables in Australia and the related accelerated displacement of coal, gas and diesel. Fossil-fuel based generation is obsolete in this country. As the electrification of the vehicle fleet picks up we will see the peremptory liquidation of that obsolete generation plant. This will likely happen by 2030 or earlier.
Most importantly perhaps, this is occurring in spite of the obstruction of the Commonwealth/LNP. And it’s occurring without the artificial pricing inducements of a carbon tax. The results will include radical reductions in energy prices, very steep declines in GHG emissions in the domestic sector and the initiation of a renewable energy export sector. This is the triumph of technology and price pressures over ideology.
Yes, yes – we get it. Coal is king, and you and your party will oppose any effort to dethrone it. I guess as you come from the state with the highest degree of dependency on fossil fuels (which, in Australia, is really saying something!) then your enthusiasm for them is understandable.
But you are taking the rest of Australia – not to mention the world- down with you.
And that is not cool.
WA has the world’s highest uptake of renewables. They already completely dominate daytime supply in the South West Integrated System, rendering supply from gas and coal obsolete and loss-making during the periods of highest demand. Night-time supply will soon be met by renewably-derived stored power and this will be accelerated by the uptake of electric vehicles. In a relatively short time the remaining coal sourced supply will close and gas generators, mostly owned by the State, will also close sequentially because they will be loss-makers.
These developments are technically and economically realisable. They will be executed within a very short time frame on the strength of regulatory changes and new investments – investments that are already being prepared. They will be – they already are – extended to off-grid/remote fixed power in regional areas, where renewables + storage are being deployed to replace gas and diesel.
There are obviously some who do not wish this to happen….for their own reasons. But their wishful thinking will not prevent it. These changes are coming. In many respects they have already occurred.
This is irresistible. In WA, not even the Liberals and Nationals oppose it.
nath @ #870 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 9:31 am
The implication that beheading an effigy of Trump makes someone more of a “Trump enemy” than any other person who opposes Trump. It does not.
Je suis Kathy Griffin.
You did not. You posted a clip from an old sitcom where she delivers a line from a script like how all sitcom actors do. The line she gives in your clip is “We’ve created a magazine. Mr. Trump, we give you Skazzy!”. It’s the magazine cover that speculates about Trump being president. So:
1. She doesn’t gush over Trump.
2. Her sitcom character doesn’t even do that, either.
3. The speculation about a Trump presidency isn’t hers or even her character’s (from the clip it’s clear the magazine was a group effort).
Whatever juxtaposition you’re trying to set up doesn’t work, because you’ve conflated a sitcom character with a real person. And also misrepresented what the sitcom character did, anyways.
***
Brexit from the European point of view:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1186740992872988673
As far as Trump is concerned, his election next time around will be closely linked to how the US economy is getting on. At the moment with what seems only ‘frictional’ unemployment (as I think it was once called) and the stock market making money for the well-off, he has, despite all, quite a good chance of being re-elected. The ‘I’m okay Jack’ is likely to prevail despite all…………..
It is depressing to think 30% of support for him in the US is providing the tail to wag the Trump dog….we are all losers at the moment.
Boerwar @ #878 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 10:57 am
And then they ordered pizza. 🙄
However, as was pointed out, there were already Republicans on the Committees, so why the other Repugs had to storm the meeting no one could quite figure out? Except that they were from the loyal Trump faction within the Republican Party, the ‘Freedom Caucus’. So, stunt.
lizzie @ #883 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 11:08 am
Also, Jude is a religious name, just sayin’.
As for veteran recognition… we have a huge thing called ANZAC day, and Remembrance Day, we have a hugely expensive and growing War Memorial in Canberra, and Villiers, and expanded ones in the centre of Sydney and Melbourne, and every other Australian town
What do the Aboriginal Australians, who sacrificed their whole nation for us to live in have….crickets.
Albo should immediately dispatch a team to Liberal Party headquarters in Ottawa to find out how a progressive political party can get elected in the face of conservative lies and dirty tricks while promoting a carbon tax and more social spending.
Trudeau’s Liberals thumped the Tories in most Canadian cities and outer suburbs despite the Conservatives’ campaign mantra of scrapping the carbon tax, “putting more money into people’s pockets,” and cutting the size of governments. Many of Andrew Scheers campaign messages were right out of the LNP election playbook that worked a treat here in May.
But surprisingly they had little traction in the areas where it counted. The Liberals swept downtown Toronto and Montreal and most of the surrounding suburban ridings. Their program also won them many seats in Vancouver, Ottawa and Halifax, as well as rural areas of the Atlantic provinces.
The carbon tax did not scare these people. And former opponents, such as the Conservative Premier of New Brunswick, are now talking of moving in that direction.
What was impressive about Trudeau’s re-election, albeit as a solid minority, was that it was done without preferential voting. If the Australian system had been used, he would have secured a powerful majority fuelled by NDP and Green preferences. It also came after a series of mostly confected “scandals” which were thought to depress the Liberal vote.
Critics will point to the fact that the Liberals were clobbered in the west and the Conservatives had a larger popular vote. This, however, was padded by huge winning margins in the redneck provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan and other rural areas across the country.
Justin’s 35-seat margin over the Conservatives was better than his Dad’s result in a similar election scenario in 1972. Pierre’s solid 1968 majority was cut down to a margin of only two seats. He went on to secure a majority at the subsequent election. Let’s hope history repeats itself.
There has been much talk about the fact that most minority regimes in Canada last only about two years. This time it’s different because the Liberals have only the like-minded NDP to bring into line, giving them a comfortable majority of seven. There is a good chance that the government will last the whole four years.
The NDP might become a problem when the Liberals’ Trans-Mountain pipeline comes up or they can’t get Trudeau to move faster on pharmacare. The Liberals then might benefit from the desire of other parties not to pull the plug for an election.
But two years are pretty well guaranteed because 2021 is when the MP’s elected in 2015 become eligible for Parliamentary pensions.
Good Morning
Good to finally see some sense on surveillance powers.
Of course we still need a human rights bill/charter
Happy 64th birthday Mr. Trumble. If only you had had the guts to have stared down your party’s nutters, we might not now have Mr. SmirkMo, arguably worse than your predecessor.
Heads up AR. Other people including Newsweek are describing individuals as ‘trump enemy’. You better get on to them about that.
prominent pastor and Fox News contributor spoke on Sunday of the “sacrifices” President Donald Trump had made for the United States, comparing him favorably with Senator John McCain, a Trump enemy, who died on Saturday after a battle with brain cancer.
https://www.newsweek.com/fox-news-pastor-highlights-trump-sacrifices-his-country-eulogy-former-pow-1091047
Boerwar @ #877 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 10:55 am
I am in favour of couture battles. I have a number of ridiculous hat from which I can choose. Today, for my couple of hours day release I am planning on wearing my green top hat.
Note – the hat is really purple. A few months ago I could not find it because of the mistaken idea that it is green.
I think a State of Origin hat battle could be a winner. Fought out in those brand new stadiums coming soon to a neighbourhood near you (NSW).👒🎩🤠
Dammit – wrong again. Don’t tell my children
couture
/kuːˈtjʊə/
noun
noun: couture
the design and manufacture of fashionable clothes to a client’s specific requirements and measurements.
“designer ready-to-wear has taken over from couture as the focus of interest”
•fashionable made-to-measure clothes.
“they were dressed in size eight printed-silk couture”
Confusion rains (reigns) (we could use some in Newcastle). Why can’t we have a millinery war ❓
Torchbearer
I agree with you. IMO Morrison is being deliberately provocative.
To those commenting on the US election.
Remember polling has told us ONLY Sanders and Yang attract crossover votes from Trump voters.
I am still of the view that Warren will be the nominee.
Thus the Centrist panic and talk of bringing Clinton back. The Centrists have learnt nothing.
Heres another one AR. Get your indignation hat on!
And in 2010, Goldstone also posed for a pic with noted Trump enemy Kathy griffin, which the comedienne posted on social media Monday.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4685630/PR-guru-set-meeting-Don-Jr-Russian.html
I am convinced Scott Morrison is a young earth creationist, climate change denialist and might believe in the rapture. Also I would not be surprised, if he believes everybody who does not recognize Jesus Christ as their lord and savior is going hell. Although those are pretty common beliefs for Pentecostal Christians, I know because I was involved in Conservative Evangelical Christianity for several years around the turn of this decade and knew many Pentecostal Christians as a result.
However in regards to the possibility Scott Morrison believes in conspiracy theories such as say ‘Cultural Marxism’ or QAnon, I am not sure he subscribes to them, although he might very well using them as politically useful. Although if I were still a Pentecostal Christian, I would be subscribing to the Cultural Marxism conspiracy theory although.
But I can’t think Labor can electorally profit from attacking Scott Morrison as a religious nutter. Since conservative Christians in Australia, feel like they are a beleaguered persecuted minority. They certainly believed so during the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite, which energized a lot of them. These people I argue helped the Liberals gain Lindsay in Sydney, increase their majorities in seats in Western Sydney they already held. Also prevented Labor from gaining Chisholm in the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne. It is notable that Western Sydney MP’s such as Chris Bowen and Michelle Rowland want to party to be more respectful to Conservative Christians.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/23/scott-morrison-links-qanon-conspiracy/h
guytaur:
[‘Good to finally see some sense on surveillance powers.’]
This government has a record of failing to following committee recommendations.
MSNBC is doing it too AR. You should write to them.
In his mind, when it’s a Trump ally who’s facing legal jeopardy, it’s necessarily evidence of the Justice Department doing something wrong, and when a Trump enemy isn’t facing legal jeopardy, it’s also necessarily evidence of the Justice Department failing.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-raises-stakes-effort-politicize-federal-law-enforcement