In through the out door

Sarah Henderson returns to parliament via a Senate vacancy and a hotly contested preselection, as Coalition MPs blow bubbles on electoral “reform”.

Two brief news items to relate on Australian matters, as well as which we have the latest of Adrian Beaumont’s increasingly regular updates on the constitutional mess that is Brexit.

Sarah Henderson, who held the seat of Corangamite for the Liberals from 2013 until her defeat in May, will return to parliament today after winning preselection to fill Mitch Fifield’s Victorian Senate vacancy. This follows her 234-197 win in a party vote held on Saturday over Greg Mirabella, a Wangaratta farmer and the husband of former Indi MP Sophie Mirabella. After initial expectations that Henderson was all but assured of the spot, Mirabella’s campaign reportedly gathered steam in the lead-up to Saturday’s vote, resulting in a late flurry of public backing for Henderson from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Jeff Kennett, Michael Kroger and Michael Sukkar.

Also, The Australian reports Queensland Liberal Senator James McGrath will push for the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, of which he is the chair, to consider abolishing proportional representation in the Senate and replacing it with a system in which each state is broken down into six provinces, each returning a single member at each half-Senate election – very much like the systems that prevailed in the state upper houses of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia in the bad old days before the advent of proportional representation.

Ostensibly motivated by a desire to better represent the regions, such a system would result in a Senate dominated as much as the House of Representatives by the major parties, at a time of ongoing erosion in public support for them. The Australian’s report further quotes Nationals Senator Perin Davey advocating the equally appalling idea of rural vote weighting for the House. The kindest thing that can be said about both proposals is that they are not going to happen, although the latter would at least give the High Court an opportunity to take a stand for democracy by striking it down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,838 comments on “In through the out door”

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  1. Yep. I’m on same page……

    Eric Garland
    @ericgarland
    ·
    11h
    I’m not saying Kavanaugh’s youth shouldn’t be up for discussion, but can we find out who paid off hundreds of thousands of his credit cards, and what he did at Kirkland & Ellis, Bill Barr’s sketchy, Putin-connected law firm?

  2. Zoid

    Labor has some mud clinging to it as well. I am not saying the Greens are exempt but don’t blind yourself to the perception and waste time arguing against it when in reality the Greens will back Labor in anti corruption. The only thing the Greens will attack Labor on is its not good enough.

    Thats just something Labor has to wear as a party. Obeid looms large over Labor.
    The important thing is the Greens and Labor and Centre Alliance and Cross Benchers are all for a Federal ICAC body with teeth thats truly independent.

  3. Victoria says: Monday, September 16, 2019 at 12:40 pm

    It would not surprise me in the least if Saudia Arabia bombed their own oil fields to facilitate an attack on Iran.

    *************************************************************

    General Mark Hertling‏Verified account @MarkHertling

    Unless the IC has a lot more information – radar tracks, point of origin of launch, heat signature from a cruise missile launch, human intelligence, satellite imagery of the attack profile – there are still more Qs than A’s. A satellite photo of before and after isn’t evidence – the attack could’ve originated in Yemen, Iraq, Iran or even Saudi Arabia.

  5. PhoenixRed

    Intuitively I am thinking The Saudias.

    Also the whistleblower scenario that Adam Schiff is attempting to get to the bottom of is very interesting.

  6. If Naomi Klein were to be at all balanced, she would stick it to China and India who are among the major global chain draggers on restraining CO2 emissions growth.

    Klein is mired in a version of Left/Feminist analysis that has well and truly run past its use by date.

    Four of the seven highest CO2 state emitters are run by persons of colour on behalf of persons of colour. Ms Klein simply ignores them. How good is that?

    Focusing on white supremacism (and, yes, old white men!) might be useful in a limited way in a limited number of states but it is NOT going to be an effective substitute for a systemic global analysis of CO2 emissions and what might be done about it.

    In other words, Klein is part of the problem and not part of the solution.

  9. Steve777:

    Monday, September 16, 2019 at 11:52 am

    [‘Mavis @11:33 – is there a link for that? It deserves wide circulation, especially this part:’]

    It’s on the Guardian’s parliamentary live sight.

  10. BW

    Wow I never thought I would see the day when you defend White Supremacy.

    Ignoring those links is to ignore why a country like the United States is failing on Climate Change.
    Its the West. The countries ruled by mostly old white men who created the climate crisis in the first place.

    It was not the “developing” nations who did not majorly industrialise or burn forests to satisfy the demand of those same developed countries when they were not colonies.

    We fix our own home first.

  11. Jackol,
    While I generally agree with you, I quibble at this:

    The incumbents and the opposition are never going to be on an equal footing. Governments have the advantage of incumbency, but Governments also have the disadvantage of destroying their support over time due to the ongoing accrual of negative hits.

    In this day and digital age governments have the added advantage, not only of incumbency but also the ability to use taxpayers’ money to create propaganda that airbrushes their negatives away, that they then put out into the media to colour the electorate’s perception of the government before the election. As Morrison and co. expertly did.

    For this reason I believe we won’t see the turnover in governments as often as we should.

  12. ‘General Mark Hertling‏Verified account @MarkHertling

    Unless the IC has a lot more information – radar tracks, point of origin of launch, heat signature from a cruise missile launch, human intelligence, satellite imagery of the attack profile – there are still more Qs than A’s. A satellite photo of before and after isn’t evidence – the attack could’ve originated in Yemen, Iraq, Iran or even Saudi Arabia.’

    The major beneficiaries would have to be Israel and US and Russian oil exporters.

    False flag options abound.

    One of the back stories is that the Saudis have been less than impressive in their warfighting against the Houthis.

    BTW, at first glance Hertling looks like he might know what he is talking about:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Hertling

  13. ‘Boerwar says:
    Monday, September 16, 2019 at 12:47 pm

    If Naomi Klein were to be at all balanced, she would stick it to China and India who are among the major global chain draggers on restraining CO2 emissions growth.’

    But she doesn’t. Is she a soul mate of Ms Liu?

  14. Greensborough Growler:

    [‘Crowe senses a slight change in the atmospherics of power.’]

    Yes, I read that article, Morrison thinking he could get away with it in the style of Trump.

  15. Victoria says: Monday, September 16, 2019 at 12:46 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Intuitively I am thinking The Saudias.

    Also the whistleblower scenario that Adam Schiff is attempting to get to the bottom of is very interesting.

    **********************************************************

    Every day – another scandal ……and with William Barr riding shotgun and shutting down anything vaguely involving Trump then America is going backwards into darkest decline

  16. Cat

    The government turnover argument is the best argument for fixed terms I know of.
    Thats where the unfairness comes into the timing of it. The government has many many advantages with incumbency.

    Its also why I think we should have multi member electorates with Hare Clark or NZ or ACT voting systems. Labor should push for that if the LNP look like succeeding with making their regional stranglehold on conservative votes stronger as they are trying to argue today.

    At least it would balance out the power grab of giving more relevance to the regions and increase the fairness of representation in those regions.

  17. Is the Liberal Party a Chicom Front Organisation?
    Did the Yellow Peril slip between the cracks?
    What are the seven names of Ms Liu?

    So many questions. So few answers.

  20. PhoenixRed

    It has certainly reached a critical point in this whole shit show.

    And the same can be said for the whole Brexit saga.

    As I say, we live in interesting times,

  21. mundo:

    [‘Move over Albo.
    Please.
    Give Chalmers time to establish himself in the public’s mind.’]

    Albo should be given time to establish himself as leader. I imagine he’s holding back until the election review is completed. I do think, however, that Chalmers is a better performer than Marles, with the added advantage that he’s a Queenslander.

  22. ar
    Possibly not as isolated as that. Possibly a pattern.
    Going back to the downing of a US drone there was a story that US warplanes were on the way to punish Iran when Trump called them back.
    I assumed at the time that Bolton wanted them to go ahead and bomb Iran but that Trump did not want to cause an all out war.
    I suggest that that was one of possibly many flashpoints in the interactions between Trump and Bolton.

  23. Boerwar @ #1954 Monday, September 16th, 2019 – 12:47 pm

    If Naomi Klein were to be at all balanced, she would stick it to China and India who are among the major global chain draggers on restraining CO2 emissions growth.

    Klein is mired in a version of Left/Feminist analysis that has well and truly run past its use by date.

    Four of the seven highest CO2 state emitters are run by persons of colour on behalf of persons of colour. Ms Klein simply ignores them. How good is that?

    Focusing on white supremacism (and, yes, old white men!) might be useful in a limited way in a limited number of states but it is NOT going to be an effective substitute for a systemic global analysis of CO2 emissions and what might be done about it.

    In other words, Klein is part of the problem and not part of the solution.

    And while I agree with this wholeheartedly I feel I need to add that even though you have identified the problem, the solution is incredibly difficult to achieve as I have heard that, even though the world and the global institutions that are in charge of the problem know what you have identified, those countries and especially China, are resisting being reclassified as Developed countries instead of Developing economies, as that brings with it added compliance obligations and economic disadvantages that they don’t want to engage in.

  25. c@t

    If China in particular did not divert so much of its national resources into maintaining the world’s largest army and building so many war ships and war planes and missiles and nuclear weapons it might actually be much better developed than it is now.

  26. Mavis Davis @ #1969 Monday, September 16th, 2019 – 1:02 pm

    mundo:

    [‘Move over Albo.
    Please.
    Give Chalmers time to establish himself in the public’s mind.’]

    Albo should be given time to establish himself as leader. I imagine he’s holding back until the election review is completed. I do think, however, that Chalmers is a better performer than Marles, with the added advantage that he’s a Queenslander.

    I don’t think it’s a good idea at all to jettison Albanese for Chalmers, even though I used to think Chalmers would be the best choice as federal parliamentary leader. I approve of the Queensland(Chalmers)-NSW(Albanese) and Victoria(Marles) troika at the top of Labor now. Also, people who aren’t tuned into politics obsessively are familiar with Albanese and might object to an ‘unknown’ taking over the reigns of federal Labor.

    But what would I know, I’m ‘mad as a cut snake’. 😉

  27. Cat

    White Supremacy is a problem. It has links to activists in the Greens far right which the Greens have to be careful don’t end up trying to do with it what they have tried with the Nationals.

    It also has strong links to climate deniers. See the Koch Brothers and Steve Bannon.

    These problems are real and bedevil politics and need to be called out. I am not a Naomi Klein fan in lots of ways however its important not to shoot the messenger.

  29. Boerwar @ #1973 Monday, September 16th, 2019 – 1:05 pm

    c@t

    If China in particular did not divert so much of its national resources into maintaining the world’s largest army and building so many war ships and war planes and missiles and nuclear weapons it might actually be much better developed than it is now.

    However, China has a goal which that development is helping achieve. I don’t think Xi really wants to be diverted from that.

  32. Boerwar

    Except that Trump is now threatening a war, and Bolton is no longer in his cabinet. Therefore sacking Bolton would not have had its origins in Trump not wanting to go to war with Iran.

  36. C@tmomma:

    [‘I don’t think it’s a good idea at all to jettison Albanese for Chalmers…’]

    Neither do I.

    Speaking of snakes, I saw the first one of the season yesterday – a diamond python. They’re out early up here, with the unseasonably warm weather.

  37. Goodness gracious Greens!

    The Parkes electorate is running out of water because it voted for the Muppet Show instead of for the Black Wiggle!

    Deep. Very, very deep!

  38. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought that a few governments ago, when a big administrative change was made in a gov department, after a trial period it would shake down with a few adjustments before settling in for the long haul.

    It seems that the more recent policy is to change structures, even to the extent of privatising services, and when there is any sort of public reaction the response is to double down and penalise the ‘clients’ even more.

  39. guytaur @ #1975 Monday, September 16th, 2019 – 1:07 pm

    Cat

    White Supremacy is a problem. It has links to activists in the Greens far right which the Greens have to be careful don’t end up trying to do with it what they have tried with the Nationals.

    It also has strong links to climate deniers. See the Koch Brothers and Steve Bannon.

    These problems are real and bedevil politics and need to be called out. I am not a Naomi Klein fan in lots of ways however its important not to shoot the messenger.

    Then you should also know that infiltration of The Greens, as much as any other political party, is a distinct possibility. See Jill Stein’s closeness to Putin.

    As far as the ‘far right’ of The Greens I have seen that split manifest itself between those greens who wish to preserve the environment and others who wish to give a home to all refugees that want one here. However, the two are not compatible, as our Climate Change-induced drought is exemplifying right now. Who should prevail?

  40. Except that Trump is now threatening a war, and Bolton is no longer in his cabinet.

    Conspiracy theory – Bolton had this most recent fracas all planned out and set in motion prior to being shown the door. He was removed but his plan kept rolling along under its own inertia.

  43. Cat

    I hope you saw the bit where I said the Greens need to be careful not to be infiltrated too.

    As for the division yes thats a real thing. However its policy is clear and not changing. The Greens are sticking with Human Rights despite attempts from the right trying to restrict immigration.

    I say the right because not all that right are White Supremacists of course.

  44. @AP tweets

    BREAKING: Company that makes prescription painkiller OxyContin files for bankruptcy protection amid lawsuits over opioid crisis. http://apne.ws/IaCIaOh

    @rogertansey tweets

    “Ramirez’s legal team gave the FBI a list of “at least 25 individuals who may have had corroborating evidence” of her story. The bureau, the authors report, “interviewed none of them.” Nor did the FBI look into Stier’s account.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-kavanaugh-revelations-why-the-court-is-broken/2019/09/15/be263c90-d7ef-11e9-a688-303693fb4b0b_story.html

  45. 1500 killed in France due to hot weather.
    https://europeansting.com/2019/09/13/record-breaking-heatwaves-killed-about-1500-people-in-france/amp/

    In late July, a heatwave engulfed Europe, breaking temperature records in the UK, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. It was the second episode of extreme heat to hit the continent since June.

    France measured its highest-ever temperature of 46°C at Verargues, near Montpellier, in June. Then, in July, Paris broke its own record with a new high of 42.6°C.

    The two heatwaves caused about 1,500 more deaths than usual in France for the time of year, according to health minister Agnes Buzyn. Half of those who died were aged over 75.

  46. Even the birds will kill you.

    A cyclist died in Australia on Sunday after being startled by a swooping magpie, a native Australian bird that gets aggressive in the spring around breeding season.

    The 76-year-old man was riding his bike in Nicholson Park in Wollongong, south of Sydney, when he veered off the path to avoid a swooping magpie, according to Wollongong Police.

    He then crashed into a fence post, was thrown to the ground, and suffered serious head injuries. The man was airlifted to Sydney’s St. George Hospital and died that evening, police said.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/15/australia/australia-magpie-death-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

  48. Mavis

    Sorry. I forget sometimes to put the ($) sign. If you don’t mind a bit of spam email for a while you could always sign up for the free trial period and cancel later.

    Edit: Mavis here is what I think is the most relevant part of the story referring to the New York Times story. Which of course is behind a paywall too.

    Here is the institutionally devastating part of their story: Ramirez’s legal team gave the FBI a list of “at least 25 individuals who may have had corroborating evidence” of her story. The bureau, the authors report, “interviewed none of them.” Nor did the FBI look into Stier’s account.

    Now let’s take a step back: If Senate Republicans had declared Kavanaugh’s behaviour as a high school and college student off-limits, they would have risked a firestorm, but at least they would have been honest about what they were up to.

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